China could mount full scale invasion of Taiwan

[funkervogt]

I agree with this article.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-defini ... 43143.html

[wjfox]

Taiwan's President says the threat from China is increasing 'every day' and confirms presence of US military trainers on the island

Updated 0851 GMT (1651 HKT) October 28, 2021

Taipei, Taiwan (CNN) – The leader of Taiwan, the island thrust into the center of rising tensions between the United States and China, said the threat from Beijing is growing "every day," as for the first time she confirmed the presence of American troops on Taiwanese soil.

Speaking with CNN in an exclusive interview Tuesday, President Tsai Ing-wen said Taiwan, which is located fewer than 200 kilometers (124 miles) away from China's southeastern coast, was a "beacon" of democracy that needed to be defended to uphold faith worldwide in democratic values.

"Here is this island of 23 million people trying hard every day to protect ourselves and protect our democracy and making sure that our people have the kind of freedom they deserve," she said.

"If we fail, then that means people that believe in these values would doubt whether these are values that they (should) be fighting for."

Taiwan and mainland China have been separately governed since the Nationalists retreated to Taiwan at the end of the Chinese civil war more than 70 years ago. Taiwan is now a flourishing democracy but the mainland's ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) continues to view the island as an inseparable part of its territory -- despite having never controlled it.

Read more: https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/27/asia ... index.html

[caltrek]

Top U.S. Official in Taiwan Says Washington Committed to Helping Island Defend Itself
Octpber 29, 2021

https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14471002

Introduction:

(Reuters via The Asahi Shimbun) TAIPEI--The top U.S. representative in Taiwan, Sandra Oudkirk, said on Friday that the United States is committed to helping Taiwan defend itself amid heightened tensions between Taipei and Beijing.

Speaking to reporters at her first news conference since assuming her post in July, she described U.S. relations with Taiwan as “rock-solid.”

“The United States has a commitment to help Taiwan provide for its self-defense,” said Oudkirk, who heads the American Institute in Taiwan, the de facto U.S. embassy in the absence of formal diplomatic ties.

Her remarks come as tension between Taiwan and China, which has not ruled out taking the democratically ruled island by force, has escalated in recent weeks.

While the United States, like most countries, has no formal ties with the Chinese-claimed island, it is its most important international backer and main arms supplier. President Joe Biden’s administration has moved to restate that support, to the anger of Beijing.

[caltrek]

Japan, U.S. Draft Operation Plan for Taiwan Contingency
December 23, 2021

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2021 ... urces.html

Introduction:

(Kyodo News) Japan's Self-Defense Forces and the U.S. military have drawn up a draft joint operation plan that would enable the setup of an attack base along the Nansei island chain in the country's southwest in the event of a Taiwan contingency, according to Japanese government sources.

Japan and the United States will likely agree to begin work to formalize an operation plan when their foreign and defense chiefs meet in early January under the "two-plus-two" framework, the sources told Kyodo News by Thursday.

The development will likely draw a backlash from China, which regards the self-ruled island of Taiwan as a renegade province to be reunified with the mainland, by force if necessary.

Under the draft plan, U.S. Marines will set up a temporary attack base at the initial stage of a contingency on the Nansei Islands, a chain stretching southwest from the Japanese prefectures of Kagoshima and Okinawa toward Taiwan. Okinawa hosts the bulk of U.S. military installations in Japan.

The U.S. military will get support from the SDF to send troops to the islands if a Taiwan contingency appears imminent, the sources said.

[caltrek]

Taiwan's Military Scrambles Jets After Detecting 39 Chinese Warplanes
by Rebecca Falconer
January 24, 2022

https://www.axios.com/authors/rfalconer/

Introduction:

(Axios) Taiwan's defense force said 39 Chinese warplanes flew into its Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) on Sunday.

Why it matters: The largest Chinese air force incursion into the zone since October came a day after the U.S. and Japanese navies conducted a joint exercise in the Philippine Sea.

While China's government did not immediately comment on the latest deployment of aircraft near Taiwan, the Chinese military sent a record 145 fighter planes to the ADIZ last October after the U.S. conducted a joint naval exercise near Okinawa, Japan.
Details: Taiwan's defense force said in a statement China's military sent 34 fighters, four electronic warfare aircraft and a bomber to the ADIZ on Sunday.

The self-governing island's military scrambled its own jets, issued radio warnings and activated air defense missile systems in response, per the statement.

[Doozer]

If anything, China (along with Russia) will probably wait until 2029 at least.

[weatheriscool]

[Tadasuke]

America and Europe should ASAP make their own electronics fabs in enough numbers to be independent from Taiwan and China. We also need to diversify supply chains as much as possible. I don't feel secure when most of cutting-edge chips come only from Taiwan.

[raklian]

America and Europe should ASAP make their own electronics fabs in enough numbers to be independent from Taiwan and China. We also need to diversify supply chains as much as possible. I don't feel secure when most of cutting-edge chips come only from Taiwan.

And dissolve United Nations and create a League of Democracies excluding anti-democratic regimes from it.

[weatheriscool]

https://twitter.com/_AfricanSoil/sta...e5068086%2Fpg1

Message from China to the U.S

"Your military will be reduced into scrap iron"

In short:
"Stop causing and hyping unnecessary tensions between us (China) and Taiwan because you're provoking us and putting our security at risk, we shall respond"

Zikhala everywhere now

https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f4e8.svg

[Yuli Ban]

Bluster. I doubt China will attempt anything any time soon.

[Tadasuke]

I am convinced that after seeing how the developed and civilized world treats Russia after their attack on Ukraine, China will not attack Taiwan. Even if they took TSMC, The West would not do business with them anymore and their GDP would go down. Just look what is happening to the ruble and Russian stocks. China doesn't want to turn +8% GDP increase rate into -8% GDP decrease rate.

TSMC NEEDS Dutch ASML to function. Without ASML they won't be able to make new factories. If ASML stopped selling them EUV machines, their expansion would come to a halt and China could not catch up to the West.

[wjfox]

Yeah, a Taiwan invasion seems less likely now. And perhaps other potential invasions/flashpoints around the world too. So perhaps some good may actually come from the Ukraine situation in the medium to longer term... albeit at a terrible price for Ukraine and Russia.

Unlike Russia, the Chinese don't seem to have an insane leadership.

[weatheriscool]

China Warns West as Report Promises to Resolve 'Taiwan Question'
Source: Newsweek

The Chinese government warned Saturday against foreign interference in its relations with Taiwan as it released a new report pledging to resolve the issue of Taiwanese independence "in the modern era."

The issue of Taiwanese independence has long put China at odds with many Western nations, as China considers Taiwan to be part of its nation—staunchly opposing any independence movements. Taiwanese leaders, however, consider the island to be its own country, making the relationship between the two all the more difficult.

During remarks at the opening of China's parliament meeting, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang stood by the "One China" principle, which states that Taiwan is part of a unified China.

"We will advance the peaceful growth of relations across the Taiwan Strait and the reunification of China," he said, according to Reuters. "We firmly oppose any separatist activities seeking 'Taiwan independence' and firmly oppose foreign interference," adding, "All of us, Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, should come together to advance the great and glorious cause of China's rejuvenation."

Read more: https://www.newsweek.com/china-warns-we ... on-1685219

[Doozer]

If Russia fails in its invasion of Ukraine, China might postpone whatever plans it has to conquer Taiwan.

[weatheriscool]

Biden: US would intervene militarily if China invades Taiwan
Source: Associated Press

TOKYO (AP) — President Joe Biden said Monday that the U.S. would intervene militarily if China were to invade Taiwan, in one of the most forceful and overt statements in support of Taiwan in decades.

Biden said the burden to protect the self-ruled island was “even stronger” after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Speaking at a news conference in Tokyo, Biden said, “That’s the commitment we made.” He said an effort by China to use force against Taiwan would “just not be appropriate,” saying it “will dislocate the entire region and be another action similar to what happened in Ukraine.”

Under the “One China” policy, the U.S. recognizes Beijing as the government of China and doesn’t have diplomatic relations with Taiwan. However, it maintains unofficial contacts with Taiwan, including a de facto embassy in Taipei, the capital. The U.S. also supplies military equipment for the island’s defense.

-snip-

By JOSH BOAK and AAMER MADHANI
16 minutes ago


Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... e8735f7e71

[wjfox]

China will 'not hesitate to start war' if Taiwan declares independence, Beijing says

10/06/2022 - 17:41

Beijing will "not hesitate to start a war" if Taiwan declares independence, China's defence minister warned his US counterpart Friday, the latest salvo between the superpowers over the island.

The warning from Wei Fenghe came as he held his first face-to-face meeting with US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue security summit in Singapore.

Beijing views democratic, self-ruled Taiwan as its territory and has vowed to one day seize the island, by force if necessary, and US-China tensions over the issue have soared in recent months.

Wei warned Austin that "if anyone dares to split Taiwan from China, the Chinese army will definitely not hesitate to start a war no matter the cost", defence ministry spokesman Wu Qian quoted the minister as saying during the meeting.

The Chinese minister vowed that Beijing would "smash to smithereens any 'Taiwan independence' plot and resolutely uphold the unification of the motherland", according to the Chinese defence ministry.

https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacifi ... ijing-says

[weatheriscool]

US: China's military activity around Taiwan threatens region
Source: AP

By SYAWALLUDIN ZAIN and DAVID RISING

SINGAPORE (AP) — U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin stressed American support for Taiwan on Saturday, suggesting at Asia’s premier defense forum that recent Chinese military activity around the self-governing island threatens to change the status quo.

Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Austin noted a “steady increase in provocative and destabilizing military activity near Taiwan,” including almost daily military flights near the island by the People’s Republic of China.

“Our policy hasn’t changed, but unfortunately that doesn’t seem to be true for the PRC,” he said.

Austin said Washington remains committed to the “one-China policy,” which recognizes Beijing but allows informal relations and defense ties with Taipei.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/lloyd-austin ... c9cd4227a1

[caltrek]

I am increasingly coming to the conclusion that the problem lies in the ambiguity of the so-called "One China" policy. The policy ignores the reality, that the mainland and Taiwan are in fact under two separate systems. Personally, I am inclined to say I support the notion of Taiwan being a separate country, with all rights of sovereignty thereby observed. However, that is problematic for two reasons. Most obviously because the mainland government objects, but also because that runs counter to what the people of Taiwan appear to desire. For the elite of Taiwan (apparently supported by much of the underlying population), they do not want to give up on the idea of introducing reforms onto the mainland that would allow their further ascendancy. So, they support a "One China" policy in order to keep that dream intact.

It is not One China, Two Cultures. In the West, we think nothing of a people being divided in the sense of being under different governments but still under one culture. The Unite States of America is, or at least was, first established as a federation of different states. Great Britain, the United States, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand all, broadly speaking, share the same culture, with some blending with varying native elements depending upon geography. This concept appears to be very foreign to both Chinas. Hence, at least provisionally, the "One China" policy. Yet the "One China, Two Systems" policy clearly came to a disastrous end in Hong Kong (at least disastrous in my view). Mainland China now seems intent on reaching that same conclusion in respect to Taiwan. Hence the ongoing tension.

[weatheriscool]

U.S. senators propose bill to counter Chinese threat against Taiwan

Source: Focus Taiwan

Taipei, June 17 (CNA) Two United States senators introduced a bill Thursday that Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) described as a "flagship" proposal aimed at countering China's threats against Taiwan and elevating the relationship between Taipei and Washington.

The bill, dubbed the "Taiwan Policy Act of 2022," was co-sponsored by Senator Robert Menendez, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Lindsey Graham, the ranking member of the Senate Budget Committee.

In a statement issued Friday, MOFA spokeswoman Joanne Ou 歐江安 described the bill as a "flagship" proposal because it includes provisions that seek to strengthen Taiwan's cooperation with the U.S. on security and trade issues, elevate the Taiwan-U.S. relationship, and counter threats from China.

According to a Reuters report, the bill calls for severe sanctions against Chinese officials for a "significant escalation in hostile action in or against Taiwan" and would "prioritize and expedite" U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.

Read more: https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202206170013