Climate Change News & Discussions

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Permafrost thawing faster than expected due to extreme summer rainfall
https://phys.org/news/2022-03-permafros ... ummer.html
by Wageningen University

In the past 50 years, the Arctic region has been warming three times faster than the average rate of global warming. This warming thaws the permafrost, the permanently frozen Arctic soil. New research published in Nature Communications has revealed that extreme summer rainfall is accelerating this process. As extreme rainfall events become more frequent thanks to a warmer climate, the permafrost may thaw even faster than under the influence of rising temperatures alone.

Permafrost forms the foundation of Arctic ecosystems and the settlements of humans who live on it. When the permafrost thaws, the soil loses its load-bearing capacity. In addition, the organic carbon stored in the frozen soil decomposes more easily into greenhouse gases, such as CO2 and methane, which contribute to global warming. The release of greenhouse gases through permafrost thaw causes what is known as a positive feedback loop, a self-reinforcing process.

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Speaking of permafrost.

Undersea Permafrost Is a Huge Wild Card for the Climate
by Matt Simon
March 25, 2022

https://www.motherjones.com/environment ... t-methane/

Introduction:

Mother Jones) Around 20,000 years ago, the world was so frigid that massive glaciers sucked up enough water to lower sea levels by 400 feet. As the sea pulled back, newly exposed land froze to form permafrost, a mixture of earth and ice that today sprawls across the far north. But as the world warmed into the climate we enjoy today (for the time being), sea levels rose again, submerging the coastal edges of that permafrost, which remain frozen below the water.

It’s a huge, hidden climate variable that scientists are racing to understand. They know full well that the destruction of terrestrial permafrost is a significant source of carbon entering the atmosphere. As it thaws, microbes munch on the organic matter it contains, releasing carbon dioxide (if the material is fairly dry) and methane (if the melted ice forms a pond). This can form a feedback loop, in which more permafrost thaw produces more emissions, which heat the planet to thaw even more permafrost. That’s an extra-big problem because the Arctic is now warming four times as fast as the rest of the planet.

Yet submarine permafrost is largely unstudied, owing to its inaccessibility—renting out time on a research vessel is not cheap anywhere, much less in the Arctic, and it’s much harder to reach for drilling samples. Now, in an alarming paper published last week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, an international team of scientists give us a rare look at what’s going on down there. The team used oceanic robots, which look like torpedoes, off the coast of northern Canada and mapped the seafloor with sonar. The scientists repeated this several times over the course of nine years to get a sense of how the topology of the seafloor might be changing and found that it’s undergoing massive upheaval.

Further extract:

Why is this happening? On land, permafrost is thawing because temperatures are rising. But, Paull says, there’s no evidence that seafloor temperatures are rising enough to initiate thaw. So it’s likely that thaw isn’t starting from above, but from below. Submarine permafrost forms a thick wedge of perhaps several hundred meters, says Paull. Beneath that runs relatively warm groundwater, which can degrade the permafrost. “If it’s pure permafrost ice, it’ll produce voids that subsequently collapse,” he says. “And so we’re inferring that the voids that we’re seeing developing in this environment are a consequence of the long-term warming that the seafloor in this area has experienced.”

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Tropical peatland, sea level rise and climate change
https://phys.org/news/2022-03-tropical- ... imate.html
by University of Göttingen

Tropical peatlands are among the most efficient carbon sinks. The flip side is that they can become massive emitters of carbon if they are damaged, for instance, by land use change, degradation or fire. This can lead to faster climate warming. In research led by the University of Göttingen, researchers show how peatland in the coastal areas in Sumatra and Borneo in Indonesia developed over thousands of years and how climate and sea level influenced their dynamics throughout. The results were published in Global Change Biology.

To discover more about the environment over the past 17,000 years, researchers analyzed two peat cores, each over eight meters long. They carried out analyses for traces of pollen, spores and charcoal, as well as conducting carbon dating and biogeochemical investigations. Their study found that there were much higher concentrations of charcoal between 9,000 to 4,000 years ago (the mid-Holocene), when sea level was even higher than it is now. This is a sign that there were much larger forest fires at that time. Later, around 3,000 years ago, irregular periodic variations in winds and sea surface temperatures (known as El Nino-Southern Oscillation or ENSO) would have caused prolonged drought, making the forests dry and thus susceptible to fires ignited by lightning. However, even at this time, the fires were fewer than in the earlier mid-Holocene, which presented a puzzle. A clue was that during the earlier period in the mid-Holocene period, researchers found a high proportion of mangrove pollen.

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New Estimation Strategy Improves Soil Carbon Sampling in Agricultural Fields
March 29, 2022

https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/947943

Introduction:

(EurekAlert) There is much more carbon stored in Earth’s soil than in its atmosphere. A significant portion of this soil carbon is in organic form (carbon bound to carbon), called soil organic carbon (SOC). Notably, unlike the inorganic carbon in soils, the amount of SOC, and how quickly it is built up or lost, can be influenced by humans. Since its advent about 10,000 years ago, agriculture has caused a significant amount of SOC to be released into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide, contributing to climate change.

Quantifying the amount of SOC in agricultural fields is therefore essential for monitoring the carbon cycle and developing sustainable management practices that minimize carbon emissions and sequester carbon from the atmosphere to the soil to reduce or reverse the climate effects of agriculture.

“Accurate and efficient SOC estimation is essential,” said Eric Potash, a Research Scientist in the Agroecosystem Sustainability Center (ASC) and Department of Natural Resource & Environmental Sciences (NRES) at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. “Governments need to estimate SOC in order to implement policies to minimize climate change. Researchers need to estimate SOC to develop sustainable management practices. And farmers need to estimate SOC to participate in emerging carbon credit markets.”

The traditional and most reliable way to quantify SOC is by soil sampling, with analyses in the lab (“wet chemical” measurement). But which locations in the field should be sampled? And how many samples should be taken for an accurate estimate? Each additional soil core adds significant labor and expense — and uncertainties in how to optimize sampling can lead to substantial extra costs.

In a new publication from the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) SMARTFARM Project, Potash and other SMARTFARM researchers evaluated strategies for estimating SOC. Their goal was to develop an estimation strategy that maximizes accuracy while minimizing the number of soil cores sampled.

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New, faster method to measure global warming shows no acceleration or slowdown
https://phys.org/news/2022-03-faster-me ... wdown.html
by Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO)

In a recent study published in Nature Communications, international scientists have taken on a persistent problem in climate science: near-term climate evolution.

"Common wisdom is that it may take up to 20 years before we can detect with certainty that a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is also successfully reducing the rate of global warming. Our new method cuts this time in half, promising a faster response time for policy makers working on crucial mitigation efforts. At the same time, we can reveal that global warming still is on a steady course, with no acceleration or slowdown," says senior researcher Bjørn Hallvard Samset at CICERO Center for International Climate Research.

Internal variation vs. global warming

The global surface temperature in a given year is affected both by global warming and internal variation in the climate system. Examples of internal variation are the El Nino and La Nina phenomena in the Pacific, and the NAO-index in the North Atlantic. These variations are independent of global warming, but can still influence global temperature by up to 0,5 degrees Celsius each year.

When researchers calculate the rate of global warming, such fluctuations act as "noise" that makes the calculations of the actual warming more difficult, especially on shorter timescales such as 10–20 years. This is the reason that the IPCC-reports use global warming over the last 10 years (2001–2020), instead of only using the last year.

New method for noise reduction

CICERO scientists, in collaboration with colleagues from Germany, U.S. and China, have now developed a new method to reduce this noise, with promising results.

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With Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine, Arctic Science Crumbles
by Tim Lydon
March 22, 2022

https://hakaimagazine.com/news/with-rus ... -crumbles/

Introduction:

(Mother Jones) The war in Ukraine is a deepening humanitarian tragedy that is disrupting international relations across the globe. Far from the front lines, Russia’s aggression is taking another kind of toll—it’s causing decades of scientific collaboration to unravel, even in the farthest reaches of the Arctic Ocean.

The world is heating up fast. The pace of climate change demands broad scientific study in Arctic regions, where disappearing sea ice, melting glaciers, and other developments carry global consequences.

But the war in Ukraine has brought disarray and uncertainty to a scientific community in which international collaboration is vital, says Maribeth Murray, executive director of the Arctic Institute of North America at the University of Calgary in Alberta. Russia, which controls 50 percent of the world’s Arctic coastline, is a key partner in Arctic science. “I can’t name a field where they’re not involved,” says Murray.

Murray has felt the war’s impact on Arctic research through her coordinating role for the Arctic Observing Summit, a biennial meeting happening this week in Tromsø, Norway. The meeting brings together international scientists to share findings, exchange ideas, and guide the ongoing development of a long-term pan-Arctic observing network. The network is aimed at understanding systemic changes across the Arctic and informing the adaptation and mitigation measures needed to address climate change.

But this year’s summit—and the broader Arctic Science Summit Week it is part of—is now closed to scientists from Russian institutions and organizations. The International Arctic Science Committee, which hosts the events, released a statement affirming its commitment to “peaceful scientific cooperation between nations,” but declaring it “cannot proceed as normal” because of the war.

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Campaigners Say IPCC Report Reveals 'Bleak and Brutal Truth' About Climate Emergency
by Jessica Corbet
April 4, 2022

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/ ... -emergency

Introduction:

(Common Dreams) A United Nations report on the climate emergency—released Monday after negotiations spilled into overtime—sparked a fresh wave of calls for bolder and scientifically informed action to rapidly and dramatically reduce planet-heating emissions for the sake of all life on Earth.

"How much more destruction must we witness, and how many more scientific reports will it take, before governments finally acknowledge fossil fuels as the real culprits behind the human suffering being felt across the globe?" asked Namrata Chowdhary, head of public engagement at the advocacy group 350.org.

"As we come ever closer to the tipping points for human existence, once again scientists are sounding a clear alarm: Massive cuts in emissions are unavoidable to avert the worst," Chowdhary added.

The new report, entitled Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, is the third installment from the sixth assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Earlier analyses, released in August and February, focused on physical science and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability, respectively. A synthesis document is forthcoming.

The analysis was produced by 278 authors from 65 nations and is based on over 18,000 papers and nearly 60,000 comments from countries and experts. The document emphasizes the need for systemic changes globally, including decarbonizing the energy sector, electrifying transportation, shifting to more plant-based diets, and restoring key ecosystems.

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NOAA Says Atmospheric Methane Levels Set New Record in 2021
by Brett Wilkins
April 7, 2022

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/ ... ecord-2021

Introduction:

(Common Dreams) Climate scientists on Thursday stressed the need for urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions following new data showing a record increase in atmospheric methane levels for a second consecutive year.

"Our data show that global emissions continue to move in the wrong direction at a rapid pace," National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Administrator Rick Spinrad said in a statement. "The evidence is consistent, alarming, and undeniable."

As NOAA notes, carbon dioxide remains the biggest climate change threat. However, scientists say that reducing methane emissions—the largest anthropogenic sources of which are animal agriculture and energy production—is relatively easy.

Spinrad said that "reducing methane emissions is an important tool we can use right now to lessen the impacts of climate change in the near term, and rapidly reduce the rate of warming. Let's not forget that methane also contributes to ground-level ozone formation, which causes roughly 500,000 premature deaths each year around the world."

Kassie Siegel, director of the Center for Biological Diversity's Climate Law Institute, said that "this report is especially alarming because if carbon dioxide is the fossil-fueled broiler of our heating planet, methane is a blow torch, with 87 times more short-term heating power. Yet despite methane reductions being a relatively cheap and easy way to get phenomenal climate benefits, the industry has fought regulations at every turn."

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Global heat extremes on the rise, study finds
https://phys.org/news/2022-04-global-extremes.html
by Li Yuan, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Temperature extremes with altered characteristics are among the most threatening impacts of global warming. However, how their characteristics have changed is uncertain, and varies by region.

A study led by Prof. Li Qiangzi from Aerospace Information Research Institute (AIR), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), provides, for the first time, a panoramic view of global patterns and trends of temperature extreme events (TEEs) with both heat and cold extremes considered, of heat vs. cold extremes, and of compound TEEs.

The study was published in Communications Earth & Environment on April 1.

The team designed a comprehensive analytical framework to define and measure single and compound TEEs, and to analyze the spatio-temporal patterns and trends of their annual mean frequency, mean event duration, mean event intensity, and annual cumulative magnitude at grid cell, regional and global scales over the period 1980–2018.

[wjfox]

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Predicting Methane Dynamics During Drought Recovery
April 13, 2022

https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/949725

Introduction:

(DOE via EurekAlert)
The Science

Researchers often think about methane emissions on big scales involving large areas over many years. But spatially isolated “hot spots” and brief “hot moments” also shape methane emissions from tropical forest soils. For example, climate shifts between drought and recovery can result in pulses of methane release from soil. Similarly, small differences in location on a landscape control the proportion of methane production versus methane consumption in soils. In this research, scientists used model simulation of a wet tropical hillslope during typical and drought conditions to understand how observed soil moisture and oxygen dynamics and different kinds of microbes contribute to the soil’s production and consumption of methane.

The Impact

Drought alters the diffusion of oxygen and molecules into and out of soil microsites. This results in increased methane release from the entire hillslope, but only during drought recovery. Overall, the findings show that hot spots and hot moments of methane emissions result from a specific combination of landscape position and soil moisture status. These factors affect the activity of different soil microbes and net methane emissions. This finding is important for understanding sources of methane, an important greenhouse gas.

Summary

Methane emissions and other soil variables are vastly different along different points on the slope between a valley and a ridge. Soils and their processes also differ between drought and non-drought conditions. In particular, valley soils nearly always emit methane, in contrast to ridge and slope soils. However, during recovery from a strong drought, methane emissions were substantial from all three landscape positions. This study wanted to understand the reasons behind the complex methane dynamics, both in terms of space (hot spots) and time (hot moments). The researchers coupled a microbial functional group model that considered a range of soil variables, using capabilities to consider diffusion of solutes and gases into and out of soil microsites. The model successfully represented methane emissions under all conditions and from all landscape positions. Methanogens were dominant in the wet valley soils, while methanotrophs were dominant in the drier ridge and slope soils.

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An Earth Day Technology Worth Investing In
by Daphne Wysham
April 13, 2022

https://otherwords.org/an-earth-day-tec ... esting-in/

Introduction:

(Other Words) This year’s Earth Day comes on the heels of some alarming climate news. But if we act now, we can make a huge difference.

This April, scientists observed a record annual increase in methane levels in the atmosphere for the second year in a row. It’s the largest increase since record-keeping began.

Methane is a greenhouse gas that’s over 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide. It’s a major contributor to global warming.

Man-made sources of methane —from fossil fuels to factory farms and landfills — dominate our atmosphere today. But about 40 percent of the methane now in the atmosphere comes from natural sources like wetlands and melting permafrost.

Scientists worry these natural sources of methane will grow rapidly as the world warms.

[wjfox]

I went on TV to explain Just Stop Oil – and it became a parody of Don’t Look Up

Miranda Whelehan
Wed 13 Apr 2022 17.34 BST

I hadn’t seen the 2021 satirical film Don’t Look Up when I went on Good Morning Britain on Tuesday. I was there on behalf of Just Stop Oil – a group that has been engaging in direct action by blockading oil terminals. We’re demanding that the UK government ends all new oil licences, exploration and consent in the North Sea. It’s a simple message that’s in line with science.

But the simplicity of our demands seemed to annoy my interviewer, Richard Madeley. “But you’d accept, wouldn’t you, that it’s a very complicated discussion to be had, it’s a very complicated thing,” he said. “And this ‘Just Stop Oil’ slogan is very playground-ish isn’t it? It’s very Vicky Pollard, quite childish.” I then proceeded to talk about the recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which confirmed that it is “now or never” to avoid climate catastrophe. But they didn’t seem to care.

People were quick to point out the parallels with a key scene in Don’t Look Up, when Leonardo DiCaprio and Jennifer Lawrence’s characters, both astronomers, go on a morning talkshow to inform the public about a comet that’s heading to Earth, potentially leading to an extinction-level event. The newsreaders don’t care about what they have to say: they prefer to “keep the bad news light”.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ng-britain

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Antarctic sea ice experiences record low extent for the second time in 5 years
https://phys.org/news/2022-04-antarctic ... years.html
by Chinese Academy of Sciences

Arctic sea ice may be disappearing, but until recently, Antarctic sea ice was having the opposite experience. In February, however, the extent of sea ice at the southern hemisphere experienced a record low, the second such event in five years. Researchers have now identified its proximate causes, but many mysteries remain.

A study describing their findings was published in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences on April 19.

The extent of sea ice in the Arctic is famously undergoing rapid decline as a result of global warming, but at the Earth's other pole, Antarctic sea ice has been enjoying a modest increasing trend of about one percent a decade since the late 1970s (albeit with significant variation from year to year and substantial regional differences).

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There's Something Different About Clouds in Antarctica, And It Could Be Important
by David Nield
April 20, 2022

https://www.sciencealert.com/there-s-so ... ate-models

Introduction:

(Science Alert) Clouds that form in the frosty air above Antarctica are different in the way that water and ice interact inside them, a new study reveals – and that in turn changes how much sunlight they reflect back into space, which is important for climate change models.

Through a combination of modeling, satellite imagery and data collected from flying through the clouds themselves, researchers have identified a process of 'secondary' ice production. This means icy particles collide with supercooled water droplets, freezing and then shattering them, creating many more shards of ice.

The technical term for this sequence of events is Hallett-Mossop rime splintering. It dims the clouds, reducing the amount of sunlight that's reflected back into space, and allowing more of it through into the ocean below.

"The Southern Ocean is a massive global heat sink, but its ability to take heat from the atmosphere depends on the temperature structure of the upper ocean, which relates to the cloud cover," says atmospheric scientist Rachel Atlas, from the University of Washington.

Based on the researchers' calculations, in clouds at temperatures between -3°C and -8°C (26.6°F and 17.6°F), around 10 Watts per square meter of extra energy could reach the ocean from the Sun, enough to significantly change temperatures.

[weatheriscool]

Breakthrough in estimating fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions
https://phys.org/news/2022-04-breakthro ... oxide.html
by University of East Anglia

A team of scientists led by the University of East Anglia (UEA) has made a major breakthrough in detecting changes in fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions more quickly and frequently.

In a study published today they quantified regional fossil fuel CO2 emissions reductions during the COVID-19 lockdowns of 2020–2021, using atmospheric measurements of CO2 and oxygen (O2) from the Weybourne Atmospheric Observatory, on the north Norfolk coast in the U.K.

The estimate uses a new method for separating CO2 signals from land plants and fossil fuels in the atmosphere. Previously it has not been possible to quantify changes in regional-scale fossil fuel CO2 emissions with high accuracy and in near real-time.

Existing atmospheric-based methods have largely been unsuccessful at separating fossil fuel CO2 from large natural CO2 variability, so that estimates of changes, such as those occurring in response to the lockdowns, must rely on indirect data sources, which can take months or years to compile.

[wjfox]

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Fifteen Carbon Renewal Projects Score One Million Dollars Each in Climate Xprize Milestone
by Devin Coldeway
April 22, 2022

https://techcrunch.com/2022/04/22/15-ca ... milestone/


Extract:

(TechCrunch) A multi-year, $100 million Xprize competition for startups trying to remove or reverse carbon emissions has its first crop of big winners. Though the bulk of this Musk money won’t be given away until 2025, these 15 companies are each getting $1M today to keep the lights on til then.

The Carbon Removal Xprize, funded by the Musk Foundation, aims to reward novel methods to “pull carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere or oceans and lock it away permanently in an environmentally benign way.” We’ve seen a few companies doing this with venture funding as well; it’s clearly an important and potentially both transformative and profitable space.

Here’s a very basic summary of each, in the order listed on the Xprize site (See link above quote box for this list, which includes hyperlinks for further information):

• Calcite: Using “the natural carbon absorbing properties of Calcium Hydroxide” to pull it from the air at scale

• Carbyon: “A fast swing process by means of a rotating drum” containing an engineered material to capture CO2

• Heirloom + Carbfix: Sequestering carbon in naturally occurring minerals and fluids through efficient exposure

• Project Hajar: Mineralization using 44.01’s peridotite injection process

• Sustaera: “Direct air capture 2.0” with improved modularity and cheaper chemical reaction pathways

• Verdox + Carbfix (yes, they’re listed twice): “Electroswing adsorption” to fix CO2 with 70% less energy

• Bioeconomy Institute at ISU: Uses Pyrolysis to refix outgoing plant-based carbon (with bio-oil byproduct)

• Global Algae: Algae farms that naturally capture CO2 from the air

• NetZero: Also pyrolysis (helpful video explainer here)

• PlantVillage: Helps farmers in Africa to adapt to climate change

• Takachar: Mobile “oxygen-lean torrefaction” to convert waste biomass to fuel, fertilizer etc

• Captura: Extracting CO2 directly from seawater by means unspecified

• Marine Permaculture: “Deepwater-irrigated, open-ocean seaweed mariculture.” Kelp farms!

• Planetary: Turns mine waste into a “mild, nontoxic antacid” that helps restore natural ocean pH

• Carbin Minerals: Using mine tailings for a mineralization process

[Yuli Ban]