2022 midterm election thread

[weatheriscool]

Trump pours money into a midterm race for the first time
Source: Politico

Former President Donald Trump’s political operation is plowing cash into Georgia’s Republican gubernatorial primary — his organization’s first major financial investment in a midterm race and an indication that he’s willing to dig into his massive war chest to defeat his foes.

Trump’s Save America PAC has transferred $500,000 to a super PAC devoted to defeating Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, whom the former president has targeted over his refusal to overturn Georgia’s 2020 election results. Those close to Trump’s political apparatus describe it as an initial cash infusion ahead of the May 24 primary, which pits Kemp against Trump-endorsed former Sen. David Perdue.

Trump is opening his account for another candidate for the first time since leaving the White House. The former president — who continues to capitalize on a deep well of small donor support — has stockpiled more than $110 million, making his committee one of the most well-funded organizations in politics. While Trump has cut small checks to favored candidates and spent money to stage rallies, he had yet to direct a sizable sum toward bolstering a particular contender.

The move underscores the importance — and urgency — of Georgia in Trump’s eyes. Kemp has a substantial polling lead over Perdue and has far outpaced his rival in fundraising, despite absorbing more than a year of attacks from the former president. Trump recruited Perdue into the primary and nudged out another candidate who threatened to cut into Perdue’s vote. The former president recently held a rally for Perdue, recorded a TV advertisement for him and hosted a fundraiser benefiting his campaign.

Read more: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/1 ... e-00024987

[weatheriscool]

Iowa Supreme Court: Finkenauer qualifies for Senate ballot
Source: AP

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — The Iowa Supreme Court ruled Friday that Democratic Senate candidate Abby Finkenauer qualifies for the primary ballot, rejecting a lower court decision and allowing her to continue her campaign for the nomination and the chance to face longtime Republican Sen. Charles Grassley.

The court’s decision leaves Finkenauer as the likely front-runner in a race with two lesser-known candidates ahead of Iowa’s June 7 primary. The winner will run against Grassley, who is seeking an eighth term in the Senate.

“This is a moment for all advocates for democracy — Democrats, Republicans and Independents — to celebrate the enduring strength of our democratic process and a reminder to never take it for granted,” Finkenauer said in a statement.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm ... SocialFlow

[weatheriscool]

Trump-era EPA chief Scott Pruitt files to run for Senate in Oklahoma
Source: The Hill

Trump-era Environmental Protection Agency Chief Scott Pruitt will run to represent Oklahoma in the U.S. Senate.

Pruitt officially filed on Friday to run for the seat currently held by Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.). Inhofe announced earlier this year that he would not run for reelection.

It had been previously reported that Pruitt was considering a Senate bid.

Pruitt helmed the agency tasked with protecting the environment until resigning in 2018 amid several ethics controversies.

Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... li=BBnbcA1

[weatheriscool]

Walker raises $5.5M in Georgia Senate race, trailing Warnock
Source: AP

By JEFF AMY

ATLANTA (AP) — Georgia Republican Herschel Walker said Friday that his U.S. Senate campaign had raised $5.5 million in the first three months of 2022, a big haul that is still dwarfed by the $13.6 million that Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock raised in the same period.

A former football star, Walker is the GOP front-runner, but faces five other Republicans in the May 24 primary. A June 21 runoff, if necessary, would settle the Republican nomination.

Georgia will be a key battleground in the 2022 midterm elections to determine which party controls the U.S. Senate. Republicans had long dominated statewide races until Georgia helped elect Joe Biden to the presidency and enabled Democrats to control the Senate by electing Warnock and fellow Democrat Jon Ossoff in a January 2021 runoff.

Walker has raised $14.6 million since announcing his run. Campaign spokesperson Mallory Blount said Walker had close to $7.4 million in cash.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm ... e136d71e2b

[caltrek]

Redistricting Mess Forces Ohio to Split Primary, Delay Legislative Races
by Kevin Koeninger
April 15, 2022

https://www.courthousenews.com/redistri ... ive-races/

Introduction:

(Courthouse News) Arguably the most important race in the 2022 (Ohio) primary is the battle for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate, which includes author J.D. Vance, former state treasurer Josh Mandel, former Ohio Republican Party Chairwoman Jane Timken and businessman Mike Gibbons.

While Timken has a wealth of experience as a party operative, Vance and Mandel have garnered the most attention, at least in part because of their brash behavior and willingness to provide critics with provocative quotes.

…In a recent debate, Mandel and Gibbons, who had a slim lead in February polling, were involved in a face-to-face altercation during a disagreement over stock trades, which prompted Mandel to tell his counterpart, “two tours in Iraq, don’t tell me I haven’t worked.” Gibbons’ campaign called Mandel “unhinged” after the debate and accused him of lying about Gibbons’ investment record as a tactic to make up ground in the primary.

Vance is also no stranger to controversy, and has used the financial backing of venture capitalist billionaire Peter Thiel to put himself in the thick of the Republican primary. He touts himself as a “conservative outsider,” and has been endorsed by several far-right politicians, including U.S. Senator Josh Hawley and Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, as well as conservative activist and radio host Charlie Kirk.

…The Democratic Party has rallied behind Congressman Tim Ryan, whose working class roots and center-left politics make him a formidable threat in an increasingly conservative Ohio.

The article also discusses problems in settling on a redistricting map for Ohio. A situation which will apparently result in primary voting on two separate days, with state legislative races to be voted upon separately from the U.S. Senate race.

[weatheriscool]

Utah Democrats back independent Evan McMullin for U.S. Senate in a historic vote
Source: Salt Lake Tribune

Murray • In an extraordinary move on Saturday, Utah Democrats voted to back independent candidate Evan McMullin over Democrat Kael Weston to challenge the winner of the Republican primary later this year.

At the Utah Democratic Convention at Cottonwood High School in Murray, McMullin received 782 of the delegate’s votes, nearly 57%, to Weston’s 594 votes, according to preliminary results.

It’s an unprecedented measure for Utah’s Democrats, who grappled between party loyalty or backing an outsider to increase the likelihood of defeating a Republican in November. The Democrats were motivated by the prospect of unseating Sen. Mike Lee, who is running for his third term this year, and won the support of Republican around 75% of delegates at his party’s convention.

Lee still needs to defeat challengers Ally Isom and Becky Edwards in his June primary to face McMullin in the general election.

Read more: https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/20 ... emocratic/

[caltrek]

Two Top Idaho Officials Driving Heated Race for Governor
by Carson McCullough
April 22, 2022

https://www.courthousenews.com/two-top- ... -governor/

Extract:

BOISE, Idaho (Courthouse News) — The last several years of American politics have seen no small share of unconventional contests. But the current gubernatorial race in Idaho may be shaping up to be one of the wildest yet.

Positioned as the front-runner is Governor Brad Little, seeking reelection for the first time after winning the job in 2018. Little has enjoyed a long career in Idaho politics, serving in the state Senate for nearly 10 years before being elected to two terms as Idaho’s lieutenant governor under Governor Butch Otter.

But despite Little’s history with the lieutenant gig, it is that job’s current occupant that has challenged his reelection. Lieutenant Governor Janice McGeachin, also a Republican (and endorsed by former President Donald Trump last year), is making a bid for the top job after a strained relationship with the governor has commanded most of her time in office.
….
While polling data for the governor’s race is scant, surveys that have been done certainly indicate Little is the one to beat. A poll released by the Idaho Dispatch at the top of the year reported that nearly 60% of Idaho voters say they plan to back Little. McGeachin trailed in a distant second with just 18% support, and no other candidate managed to crack double-digits.
…
While the Democratic Party nominated former Idaho representative Paulette Jordan for the governor’s race four years ago that saw her rake in more than 231,000 votes — the most a Democratic candidate for governor has ever received in the state, but still shy of the 361,000 earned by Little — no competitive Democratic candidate has emerged this cycle.

[caltrek]

Greg Abbott’s Enhanced Border Inspections Cost Texas $4.2 Billion In Economic Losses
by Alex Henderson
April 27, 2022

https://www.alternet.org/2022/04/greg-a ... es-report/

Introduction:

(Alternet) Democratic former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, who is running against Republican incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott in Texas’ 2022 gubernatorial race, has been lambasting his political opponent for imposing enhanced inspections on commercial trucks entering Texas from Mexico.

Abbott’s recent political stunt, O’Rourke stresses on the campaign trial, was terrible for Texas’ economy — and economic consulting firm the Perryman Group is now saying that Texas suffered losses of $4.2 billion in gross product.

Abbott’s enhanced inspections made it much more difficult for commercial truck drivers entering Texas from Mexico to deliver fresh produce and other goods. Long delays resulted in fresh produce going bad. And the inspections temporarily caused the closing of the Pharr-Reynosa International Bridge, which links Pharr, Texas with Reynosa, Mexico in the state of Tamaulipas.

Abbott’s political theatrics, according to Perryman, not only affected the Texas economy, but the U.S. economy in general. Texas isn’t necessarily the final destination for Mexican goods that enter the U.S. via the Lone Star State, and those trucks often make their way to the Midwest and other parts of the U.S. to deliver a variety of fruits and vegetables.

The economic losses, Perryman reports, will be difficult or “impossible” to make up.

caltrek's comment:...and the Republicans are slated to make gains in 2022 and 2024 because the Democrats are being blamed for our economic problems?

[caltrek]

Why Republicans are Favored to Win the Senate — and How Democrats Could Stop Them
by Andrew Porkop
April 26, 2022

https://www.vox.com/23030164/senate-202 ... tlegrounds

Introduction:

(Vox) Democrats’ control of the 50-50 Senate could well be washed away by a red wave in this fall’s midterm elections.

Republicans appear favored to win back the Senate for two simple reasons. First, the national environment has moved in their favor. Biden’s approval rating is low. The GOP has improved in generic ballot polls and won the governor’s seat in Virginia last November.

Second, the Senate is already split 50-50, so a net gain of even just one seat for Republicans would flip the chamber into their hands.

However, Democrats do still have a way to hold on. The main thing they have going for them is a decent map — they aren’t defending any seats in states Trump won in 2020, while Republicans are defending two states Biden narrowly won. If Democrats manage to hold their losses to a minimum, or make up for them by defeating Republicans elsewhere, they could keep Senate control. But if the national environment keeps looking so dire for the party and the president, that would be a tall order.

Most analysts expect Democrats to lose the House. Losing the Senate would be an even more painful blow. Senate control would give Republicans veto power over Biden’s appointees — new Cabinet secretaries and subcabinet officials, as well as judges, including even a future Supreme Court justice should a vacancy unexpectedly arise. A GOP takeover would dramatically constrain the next two years of Biden’s presidency, and set progressives up for even more disappointment in this administration than they’ve already faced.

[wjfox]

Today is a disastrous day for Democrats' 2022 chances

Updated 1644 GMT (0044 HKT) April 28, 2022

The news that the US economy unexpectedly shrank over the first quarter of the year is an absolute body blow to Democrats already reeling amid growing economic concerns ahead of the 2022 midterm election.

The country's gross domestic product fell at an annualized rate of 1.4% between January and March -- a stunning reversal from the 6.9% GDP growth that the US recorded in the final quarter of 2021. (The GDP is seen as a broad guide to the overall health of a nation's economy.)

And in a decidedly ill omen, the GDP shrinkage was the worst performance of the measure since the economy went into recession amid the shutting down of the country in the spring of 2020.

Addressing recession fears on Thursday, President Joe Biden said: "Well, I'm not concerned about recession. I mean, you're always concerned about recession, but the GDP, you know, fell to 1.4%."

The GDP news comes on the heels of newly released polling data from Gallup that suggested that economy confidence is extremely low among the American public.

[wjfox]

The Supreme Court may have just fundamentally altered the 2022 election

Updated 1517 GMT (2317 HKT) May 3, 2022

The draft opinion from the Supreme Court that would overturn the right to an abortion is a massive story with a myriad of implications for the American public. It also may be exactly what Democrats need to solve their passion problem heading into the 2022 midterm elections.

At issue for Democrats is that, with less than 200 days before the midterms, their base is significantly less motivated to vote than the Republicans.

[...]

The Supreme Court's looming decision on Roe v. Wade is one of those external factors that does have the ability to fundamentally alter how the parties -- and their bases -- see the coming election.

Sensing that, Democrats immediately began to cast the 2022 midterms as a straight referendum on the decision.

"If the Court does overturn Roe, it will fall on our nation's elected officials at all levels of government to protect a woman's right to choose," Biden said in a statement Tuesday. "And it will fall on voters to elect pro-choice officials this November."

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/03/poli ... index.html

[weatheriscool]

Shontel Brown Defeats Nina Turner in Tense Ohio Rematch
Source: Yahoo / Reuters

Congresswoman Shontel Brown (D-OH) decisively won the Democratic primary in Ohio’s 11th congressional district Tuesday night, once again fending off progressive activist Nina Turner, who mounted a rematch bid against her this year.

Turner and Brown last faced off last August in the Democratic special-election primary to replace Marcia Fudge, who left her seat in Congress to serve as Secretary of Housing and Urban Development. Their race attracted swells of outside spending and drew tense divides between the moderate and progressive wings of the Democratic Party.

While the rematch was quieter, the fissures that emerged during last year’s contest remained. Brown’s brief tenure in the House won her endorsements from a number of key Democratic players, including President Joe Biden, House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D) and the Congressional Progressive Caucus, among others.

Turner, however, still drew some endorsements from the more-progressive left, including Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and a number of outside groups. She argued Brown was too dependent on PAC money— that she was the more active fighter for progressives’ legislative priorities.

Read more: https://news.yahoo.com/shontel-brown-de ... 26985.html

[weatheriscool]

Tim Ryan wins Democratic nomination in Senate race to succeed Rob Portman
Source: The Plain Dealer

CLEVELAND, Ohio – Tim Ryan, a Niles-area congressman, easily won Tuesday’s Democratic primary in the race to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Rob Portman, the Associated Press projects.

Ryan was the odds-on favorite heading into Tuesday’s election with nearly universal support of the Democratic establishment in the state. He was easily able to fend off upstart challengers Morgan Harper, a former attorney at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and Traci “T.J.” Johnson, a Columbus tech executive and activist.

Democrats are pinning their hopes that Ryan can become just the third Democrat to win a statewide partisan election in the past 12 years. The other two are former President Barack Obama and Sen. Sherrod Brown. Ryan’s uphill battle in the general election likely will be even steeper amid a national political climate that’s expected to favor Republicans as part of a backlash against Democratic President Joe Biden.

Addressing supporters in Columbus, Ryan offered a preview of his general election message, casting himself as an adult in the room who will advocate for workers and manufacturing. He also alluded to likely needing support from across the political spectrum if he’s going to have a chance at winning.

Read more: https://www.cleveland.com/news/2022/05/ ... rtman.html

[weatheriscool]

Vance wins Ohio Senate primary, handing Trump key victory
Source: The Hill

J.D. Vance was projected to win Ohio’s GOP Senate primary Tuesday, scoring the nomination after a brutal race and handing former President Trump a key victory after a late endorsement.

The Associated Press called the race at shortly after 9:30 p.m. ET.

Vance, the author of “Hillbilly Elegy,” won over a crowded field packed with Trump allies, including former state Treasurer Josh Mandel, investment banker Mike Gibbons and former Ohio GOP Chair Jane Timken.

He will go on to face Rep. Tim Ryan (D) in the November general election to replace retiring Sen. Rob Portman (R).

Read more: https://thehill.com/news/campaign/34738 ... y-victory/

[caltrek]

Trump Still Won’t Shut Up. He’s Doing Democrats Running for Office a Huge Favor
by Robert Reich

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... bert-reich

Introduction:

(The Guardian) The beginning of May before midterm elections marks the start of primary season and six months of fall campaigning. The conventional view this year is that Democrats will be clobbered in November. Why? Because midterms are usually referendums on a president’s performance, and Biden’s approval ratings are in the cellar.

But the conventional view could be wrong because it doesn’t account for the Democrat’s secret sauce, which gives them a fighting chance of keeping one or both chambers: Trump.

According to recent polls, Trump’s popularity continues to sink. He is liked by only 38% of Americans and disliked by 46%. (12% are neutral.) And this isn’t your normal “sort of like, sort of dislike” polling. Feelings are intense, as they’ve always been about Trump. Among voters 45 to 64 years old – a group Trump won in 2020, 50% to 49%, according to exit polls – just 39% now view him favorably and 57%, unfavorably. Among voters 65 and older (52% of whom voted for him in 2020 to Biden’s 47) only 44% now see him favorably and more than half (54%) unfavorably. Perhaps most importantly, independents hold him in even lower regard. Just 26% view him favorably; 68% unfavorably.

Republican lawmakers had hoped – and assumed – Trump would have faded from the scene by now, allowing them to engage in full-throttled attacks on Democrats in the lead-up to the midterms. No such luck. In fact, Trump’s visibility is growing daily.

The media is framing this month’s big Republican primaries as all about Trump – which is exactly as Trump wants them framed. But this framing is disastrous for Republicans. The Republican Ohio primary, for example, became a giant proxy battle over who was the Trumpiest candidate. The candidates outdid each other trying to imitate him – railing against undocumented immigrants, coastal elites, “socialism”, and “wokeness”, all the while regurgitating the Big Lie that Democrats stole the 2020 presidential election.

caltrek's comment: I hope Reich is right. Still, it sounds disturbingly like Hillary Clinton's rooting for Trump in the 2016 primary on the theory that he would be so easy to beat in the general election. We all know how that turned out. Yes, times have changed and we now have five years of Trump's antics to realize just how deranged the man is. Still, the Democrats can't afford to simply assume voters will do the logical thing. They have to make the case for themselves and their policies. Even Reich later in the article observes that "Democrats need to show voters their continuing commitment to improving voters’ lives." Additionally, it is not just a matter of commitment, but also of explaining how Democratic policies and governance can do exactly that. Especially if the Democrats can gain a more complete control of the Senate, as opposed to being in a position of being easily sabotaged by Manchin, Sinema, and Kelly.

[weatheriscool]

States line up for fight to go first in Democrats' next presidential primary
Source: Politico

More than a dozen states and at least one territory are applying to be among the first to vote for Democrats’ next presidential nominee — with the biggest pile-up coming out of the Midwest, where states are jockeying to take Iowa’s long-held early spot.

Fifteen state parties and counting, plus Puerto Rico, have submitted letters of intent to the Democratic National Committee ahead of a Friday deadline to be considered as a 2024 early state, according to a POLITICO tally. The process — the first major reimagining of the early-state presidential order in years — is being run through the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee, which will hear pitches from different states in late June and recommend a new early-state lineup to the full DNC by July.

The roster of states looking to go early hails from all over the country, including New Jersey, Washington, Colorado and Georgia. But a particularly intense competition is brewing in the Midwest, where Iowa — whose lack of diversity and messy caucus process drew Democratic ire in 2020, sparking the new look at the calendar — has been forced to reapply for its traditional slot. It is under pressure from five other states seeking to be the regional representative in the early-state lineup, depending on how broadly the DNC defines the region: Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, Nebraska and Oklahoma.

The shakeup is part of a broader move by forces in the Democratic Party that want to eliminate caucuses and give more influence to voters of color. While Democrats moved Nevada and South Carolina forward on the calendar in 2008 to increase the racial diversity of the voters who get an early say on presidential nominations, the party voted this spring to fully reopen the nominating process, including the first two spots occupied for a half-century by Iowa and New Hampshire.

Read more: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/0 ... s-00030560

[weatheriscool]

Judge: Marjorie Taylor Greene is qualified for reelection
Source: AP

By KATE BRUMBACK

ATLANTA (AP) — A judge in Georgia on Friday found that U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green can run for reelection, rejecting arguments from a group of voters who had challenged her eligibility over allegations that she engaged in insurrection. But the decision will ultimately be up to Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.

State Administrative Law Judge Charles Beaudrot announced his decision after a daylong hearing in April that included arguments from lawyers for the voters and for Greene, as well as extensive questioning of Greene herself.

State law says Beaudrot must submit his findings to Raffensperger, who has to decide whether Greene should be removed from the ballot.

The challenge to Greene’s eligibility was filed by voters who allege the GOP congresswoman played a significant role in the Jan. 6, 2021, riot that disrupted Congress’ certification of Joe Biden’s presidential election victory. That puts her in violation of a seldom-invoked part of the 14th Amendment having to do with insurrection and makes her ineligible to run for reelection, they argue.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm ... f5e0cc901a

[caltrek]

^^^However much I might like to see Green disqualified from running, I am more than a bit nervous about the precedent this might set. Especially given her claim that she did not support the violence of January 6, but merely believed (what I consider a bald-faced lie) that the election was stolen.

It does suck that many Republicans will not care one iota about precedent. Rather, it will be a matter of "just us" instead of "justice", meaning that they will not hesitate to try to disqualify Democrats in even remotely similar circumstances.

[caltrek]

Vance wins Ohio Senate primary, handing Trump key victory
Source: The Hill
...
Read more: https://thehill.com/news/campaign/34738 ... y-victory/

More on that:

The Real Winner of the Ohio Republican Primary Is Peter Thiel
by Noah Lanard
May 5, 2022

Introduction:

(Mother Jones) In 2011, Peter Thiel paid $27 million for a home in Maui. In 2022, the billionaire entrepreneur and investor is on track to get a US Senate seat for his friend and former employee, J.D. Vance, for roughly half that. It might be the best deal he’s gotten since acquiring a sizable chunk of Facebook for $500,000 in 2004.

Vance is now the favorite to become Ohio’s next senator after winning Tuesday’s competitive Republican primary. He’d been trailing in the polls but shot to the top after a late endorsement from Donald Trump. Thiel was with him every step of the way.

The PayPal co-founder announced that he was putting $10 million into a super-PAC backing Vance’s Ohio Senate bid before Vance even got into the race. He went on to give another $5 million to the super-PAC. The group functioned as a shadow campaign for Vance by conducting polling, funneling people to his events, and hiring staff that later joined Vance’s official campaign, the New York Times reported.

Read more: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/20 ... na-paypal/

[caltrek]

Two Winners and Two Losers from the Nebraska and West Virginia Primaries
by Li Zhou and Nicole Narea
May 10, 2022

https://www.vox.com/2022/5/10/23066358/ ... ney-vargas

Extract:

(Vox) After helping propel all 22 of the candidates he endorsed in last week’s primaries to victory, Trump faced another major test of his clout on Tuesday.

Of all his endorsements this week, two were seen as particularly telling: those of businessman Charles Herbster for Nebraska governor and of incumbent Rep. Alex Mooney in West Virginia. Herbster lost; Mooney won. The fact that nearly all of Trump’s primary picks have won makes him a winner this week. But the Nebraska result is an important reminder that Trump’s endorsement doesn’t guarantee a win.

As returns came in, it quickly became clear that scandal-plagued Herbster trailed his two opponents: hog producer and University of Nebraska regent Jim Pillen, who ultimately won and was backed by term-limited Republican Gov. Pete Ricketts, and state Sen. Brett Lindstrom.

Though Herbster himself had declared the race to be a proxy battle between Trump and the GOP establishment, his loss might not actually reveal much about where the party stands. Rather, it’s the result that might have been expected of a troubled candidate who was openly criticized by a popular Republican governor.

Herbster was accused of groping eight women, which he has denied, framing the accusations as an attack from the Republican establishment. He also faced scrutiny for being with members of the Trump family during the January 6 insurrection. Ricketts went so far as to declare Herbster unqualified for governor.