Ukraine War Watch Thread

[caltrek]

Before anyone says something foolish, all of these principles apply to both sides, literally all of them, even the ones not quoted in this post. From the mouths of Russian, Ukrainian or western statesmen, pundit and mogul there is no winner, there is no just side to support, there is no defender, there is no liberation, there is no conquest, there is no truth, there is no life. There is only hell, war is hell, supporting imperial war is hell. If the Ukrainian state were truly innocent it wouldn't receive an iota of American military aid or NATO's attention. If you support the death of working class people through the continued armament of either side, through the continued rhetoric of either side, through the continued combat of either side, you are the problem! The only winning answer is not to play and or oppose both sides.

With all due respect, this sets up a false equivalency. For all of its faults, the Ukraine was and is striving to become a functioning democracy. In contrast, Putin is striving to become a totalitarian dictator. The two are not equal, and should not be treated as equivalent. It is asking too much that Ukraine must be totally innocent in the face of a barbaric attack from a state that is morphing into a totalitarian dictatorship. One in which genocide in dealing with the Ukraine seems to be a live option.

That is not to say that a negotiated settlement is not a desirable outcome, so long as the basic future security of the Ukraine is a part of that settlement framework.

[weatheriscool]

US intel assess 'major' strategy shift by Russia as it moves some forces away from Kyiv
Source: CNN

Russia is beginning to withdraw some forces from the area around the Ukrainian capital city of Kyiv in what the US assesses as a "major" strategy shift by Moscow, two senior US officials tell CNN.

The Russian forces now pulling back in some areas of the north will focus on gains in the south and east. The US is already observing these movements underway, including Russian Battalion Tactical Groups leaving the surrounding areas around Kyiv.

The Russian Ministry of Defense said Tuesday that it has decided to "drastically reduce hostilities" in the Kyiv and Chernigov directions, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin said according to state media RIA.

The US assesses Russia will cover their retreat with air and artillery bombardment of the capital, one of the officials said. US officials caution that Russia could always reverse again if the battle conditions allow.

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/29/politics ... index.html

[weatheriscool]

Russia-backed Donetsk Republic will consider joining Russia - leader
Source: Reuters

(Reuters) - The Russian-backed self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic in eastern Ukraine may consider joining Russia once it controls all of Ukraine's Donetsk region, its news outlet cited separatist leader Denis Pushilin as saying on Tuesday.

"The main task is to reach the constitutional borders of the republic. Then we will determine that," Pushilin was quoted by the Donetsk News Agency as saying.

Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ru ... ar-AAVDfum

[R8Z]

Russia-backed Donetsk Republic will consider joining Russia - leader
Source: Reuters

(Reuters) - The Russian-backed self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic in eastern Ukraine may consider joining Russia once it controls all of Ukraine's Donetsk region, its news outlet cited separatist leader Denis Pushilin as saying on Tuesday.

"The main task is to reach the constitutional borders of the republic. Then we will determine that," Pushilin was quoted by the Donetsk News Agency as saying.

Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ru ... ar-AAVDfum

Oh, I wasn't expecting that! :clown-face:

[caltrek]

There Are No Good Choices for Russia on Ukraine
March 29, 2022

https://www.eurasiareview.com/29032022- ... -analysis/

Introduction:

(Center of Analysis of International Relations via Eurasian Review) “Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win”, wrote the ancient Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu in his book The Art of War around 2500 years ago. Judging by the Russian military and political strategy, chances for Moscow to win the war in Ukraine are rather slim.

Russian Armed Forces have already suffered huge losses in the Eastern European country. According to reports, some Russian units have laid down their arms without a fight after confronting a surprisingly stiff Ukrainian army. More importantly, to this day Russian forces have not captured any strategically important Ukrainian cities. Even in southern Ukraine where the Russians established control over places such as Melitopol, Berdyansk and Kherson, Rosgvardiya – the internal military force of the Russian Federation – has a hard time preserving law and order on the ground. Local population in those cities sees Russian troops as occupiers, and refuses to cooperate with them. Protests against what they perceive as the Russian occupation have been going on for days.

The Kremlin’s strategic planners seem to have underestimated Ukrainian determination not to be part of the “Russian world”. Since 2014, when allegedly pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych was overthrown, the Eastern European country was effectively in the United States’ and the European Union’s geopolitical orbit. Russia’s influence in Ukraine dramatically decreased, especially in the sphere of media. Even before the Kremlin launched its “special military operation” in Ukraine, a very small number of Ukrainian citizens – 21 percent – supported joining a Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. At the same time, 54 percent supported Ukraine’s membership in NATO.

Thus, now that the Russian troops are on the ground in Ukraine, it is not surprising that the locals do not see them as liberators. It may take years, if not decades, for Russia to win hearts and minds of the local population, including those living in southeastern Ukrainian regions that were traditionally pro-Russian. The problem for Moscow, however, is that it does not have that much time. Sanctions that the West has imposed on Russia have already had a severe impact on the country’s economy.

[caltrek]

Macron Calls for Restraint in Words and Actions Regarding Ukraine Conflict
March 27, 2022

https://www.euractiv.com/section/global ... -conflict/

Introduction:

(Euractiv) French President Emmanuel Macron called for restraint in both words and actions in dealing with the Ukraine conflict, after US President Joe Biden described Russian President Vladimir Putin as a “butcher” and said he should not remain in power.

“I wouldn’t use this type of wording because I continue to hold discussions with President Putin,” Macron said on France 3 TV channel.

Biden, speaking in Warsaw, had said that Putin “cannot remain in power”. A White House official later said Biden’s remarks did not represent a shift in Washington’s policy and were meant to prepare the world’s democracies for an extended conflict, not back regime change in Russia.

“We want to stop the war that Russia has launched in Ukraine without escalation — that’s the objective,” Macron said on France 3 TV on Sunday (27 March), noting the objective was to obtain a cease fire and the withdrawal of troops through diplomatic means.

“If this is what we want to do, we should not escalate things — neither with words nor actions,” he said.

[weatheriscool]

Governor of Ukrainian City Shares Footage of Attack That Destroyed His Office: 'I Got Lucky'
Source: People

The regional governor of the Ukrainian city of Mykolaiv says he got "lucky" on Tuesday, as he overslept and was late to work — just as a Russian attack on his office led to multiple casualties.

"They hit the building of the regional administration, demolished half of the building, hit my office. Most people were miraculously saved," regional Governor Vitaliy Kim said in a message posted to Telegram and shared by various media outlets.

He continued: "I had overslept. But, I got lucky."

The State Emergency Service of Ukraine said in a statement that the strike hit the nine-story government building at 8.45 a.m. local time — just as workers were arriving to the office.

Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/go ... ar-AAVDx5H

[weatheriscool]

US troops in Poland are training Ukrainians on how to use weapons sent by the West
Source: CNN

(CNN)US troops in Poland have been providing Ukrainians with some instruction on how to use the weapons the West has been shipping into Ukraine, sources familiar with the matter tell CNN.

President Joe Biden said on Monday that US troops stationed in Poland have been "helping train the Ukrainian troops" in that country. The troops were deployed there to help bolster NATO's eastern flank amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The training is another way in which the US has aided the Ukrainian military while attempting to not directly engage Russian forces, which would potentially touch off a wider war.

Biden had heard from the troops while he was in Poland about how they were providing the tactical weapons training to the Ukrainians there, the sources said.

-snip-

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/29/politics ... index.html

[Yuli Ban]

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said Russia is not considering turning to nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine, and reiterated Moscow's stance that the use of such capabilities would only follow a "threat for existence."

Peskov told PBS "no one is thinking about [...] using a nuclear weapon," and that the Ukrainian conflict has "nothing to do with" any threat to Russia's existence. The comments come a week after on CNN he repeatedly refused to rule out that Russia would consider nuclear force against an "existential threat."

In the PBS interview on Monday, Peskov had been asked to clarify comments from former President Dmitry Medvedev, who has listed scenarios in which Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons if it faced an existential threat.

Russia has around 6,000 nuclear warheads and Medvedev said Russia's nuclear doctrine did not require an adversary to use such weapons first.

[raklian]

[caltrek]

Regarding ^^^

Fact Check: Did Ukraine Strike Arms Depot in Russian Military Town?
by Yevgeny Kuklychev
March 30, 2022

https://www.newsweek.com/fact-check-ukr ... wn-1693286

Extract:

(Newsweek) While it is extremely challenging to verify and corroborate wartime footage and reporting, most recent claims from both sides appear to suggest that the explosion was the result of an accident, rather than hostile fire.

"The explosion near Belgorod happened as a result of a fire that broke out at the ammunition depot," Interfax, another Russian state-linked news outlet, reported on Wednesday morning, citing local officials.

Vyacheslav Gladkov, the governor of the Belgorod region, wrote on his Telegram channel that while they are "awaiting official confirmation from the Russian Defense Ministry, unconfirmed reports suggest that there was a fire at the ammunition depot" and that "the situation is now under control." He added that no one was hurt in the incident.

Butusov, who originally cited Ukrainian media as the source of the claim about a Tochka-U strike, soon edited his Facebook post to now cite the Russian media.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials also denied that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were to blame, with Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk stating on Tuesday night that the explosion was a result of negligence by Russian forces.

[caltrek]

Coalition Urges Biden to 'Maximize' Efforts to Achieve Diplomatic End to Ukraine War

March 29, 2022

https://quincyinst.org/wp-content/uploa ... r32922.pdf

Extract:

Dear President Biden,

We, the undersigned thirteen organizations, are writing to urge you to maximize your efforts to achieve a diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine. As Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky recently stated in an address to the people of Ukraine “Any war ends in an agreement.” The State Department has asserted that “Diplomacy is the only responsible way to resolve this crisis.” Even as we rally the world to oppose Russia’s outrageous and illegal invasion of Ukraine, and provide needed assistance to help the Ukrainian people, it is not too early to lay the groundwork for U.S. contributions to a negotiated peace.

We understand that the government of Ukraine must play the leading role in any such negotiations, and that the success of negotiations depends on Russian willingness to accept meaningful sovereignty for the people of Ukraine. Yet the United States will also play a critical role in the success of any negotiated peace. For example, the United States leads the global coalition to oppose Russian aggression and controls the sanctions currently devastating the Russian economy. Tying the easing of some of these sanctions to the success of diplomacy would provide an important incentive for Russian concessions.

In addition, any negotiated settlement will involve establishing future Ukrainian and European security arrangements in which the United States will play a key role. There are actions the U.S. can take in these areas, and assurances the U.S. can give, which no other party anywhere in the world can match. While Ukraine and Russia are the main parties to any negotiation, both will certainly look to the U.S. to agree to and commit to support any new security arrangements resulting from diplomacy.

If there is no successful diplomatic resolution, the implications for the Ukrainian people and the world are dire…

Sincerely,

American Friends Service Committee
Church of the Brethren Office of Peacebuilding
Demand Progress Education Fund
Indivisible
Just Foreign Policy
MoveOn
Physicians for Social Responsibility
Progressive Democrats of America
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
RootsAction
United Church of Christ Justice and Local Church Ministries
Veterans for Peace
Win Without War

[weatheriscool]

Ukraine War: Putin demands Mariupol surrender to end shelling
Source: BBC

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that shelling of the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol will only end when Ukrainian troops surrender.

Mr Putin made the comments during an hour long phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday night, the Kremlin said in a statement.

But French officials said the Russian leader had agreed to consider plans to evacuate civilians from the city.

It comes as new satellite photos showed the destruction caused by the shelling.

The images, released by the Earth observation company Maxar, showed that residential areas have been reduced to rubble and highlighted Russian artillery cannons in firing positions on the outskirts of the city.

Read more: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60926470

[weatheriscool]

4 million refugees have now fled Ukraine, UN agency says
Source: AP

By JAMEY KEATEN

GENEVA (AP) — The U.N. refugee agency said Wednesday more than 4 million refugees have now fled Ukraine since Russia launched its war in the largest refugee crisis in Europe since World War II.

The new figure was posted on an UNHCR website. More than 2.3 million have arrived in Poland, but many have traveled onward to other countries or back into Ukraine.

Aid workers say the numbers have eased in recent days as many people await developments in the war. An estimated 6.5 million people have also been displaced from their homes within the country.

More than 608,000 have entered Romania, over 387,000 have gone to Moldova, and about 364,000 have entered Hungary since the war began on Feb. 24, based on counts provided by governments.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 78fd217620

[weatheriscool]

If Ukraine wins this then we have to ask wtf happened to the great and powerful Russia? It certainly isn't the military power that beat the nazi's or took over half of Europe for 60 years.

[Ken_J]

If Ukraine wins this then we have to ask wtf happened to the great and powerful Russia? It certainly isn't the military power that beat the nazi's or took over half of Europe for 60 years.

um, russia threw body counts into the war, and then floundered economically for a long while, before it fell apart (part of that included losing regions that totaled around the same size as all of the EU, one of the larger portions of that was Ukraine itself, so some of that great Russia that fought aaginst the Nazis was actually Ukraine) and basically had to restart as a country after the collapse.

it's not been a good time in russia for a very long time.

[wjfox]

Dozens of Russian troops ‘fall ill with radiation poisoning’ at Chernobyl

Thursday 31 Mar 2022 7:10 am

Russian troops withdrawn from the Chernobyl nuclear power site are being rushed across the border to a special medical facility in Belarus with ‘acute radiation sickness’, it has been claimed.

US intelligence chiefs have confirmed that Vladimir Putin’s forces have started to pull out of the region around the defunct facility after a pledge from the Kremlin to scale back attacks.

However, an employee at the Ukrainian state agency overseeing the exclusion zone said ‘irradiated’ Russian soldiers were being whisked by the bus load to a clinic in Gomel for treatment.

Yaroslav Yemelianenko wrote on Facebook: ‘Another batch of Russian irradiated terrorists who seized the Chernobyl zone was brought to the Belarusian Radiation Medicine Center in Gomel today. Have you dug trenches in the Red Forest, bitches? Now live with it for the rest of your short life. There are rules for dealing with this area. They are mandatory because radiation is physics – it works without regard to status or shoulder straps. With minimal intelligence in command or soldiers, these consequences could have been avoided.’

https://metro.co.uk/2022/03/31/chernoby ... -16377485/



Credit: EPA

[weatheriscool]

Ukrainian president says defense is at a 'turning point'
Source: AP

By NEBI QENA and YURAS KARMANAU

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukraine’s president said his country’s defense against the Russian invasion was at a “turning point” and again pressed the United States for more help, hours after the Kremlin’s forces reneged on a pledge to scale back some of their operations.

Russian bombardment of areas around Kyiv and the northern city of Chernihiv and intensified attacks elsewhere in the country further undermined hopes for progress toward ending the bloody conflict that has devolved into a war of attrition. Civilians trapped in besieged cities have shouldered some of the worst suffering, though both sides said Thursday they would attempt another evacuation from the port city of Mariupol.

Talks between Ukraine and Russia were set to resume Friday by video, according to the head of the Ukrainian delegation, David Arakhamia.

A delegation of Ukrainian lawmakers visited Washington on Wednesday to push for more U.S. assistance, saying their nation needs more military equipment, more financial help and tougher sanctions against Russia.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 5de0d31449

[weatheriscool]

Russian Troops Suffer 'Acute Radiation Sickness' After Digging Chernobyl Trenches

(Daily Beast) Several hundred Russian soldiers were forced to hastily withdraw from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine after suffering “acute radiation sickness” from contaminated soil, according to Ukrainian officials.

The troops, who dug trenches in a contaminated Red Forest near the site of the worst nuclear disaster in history, are now reportedly being treated in a special medical facility in Gomel, Belarus. The forest is so named because thousands of pine trees turned red during the 1986 nuclear disaster. The area is considered so highly toxic that not even highly specialized Chernobyl workers are allowed to enter the zone.

snip

“Not surprisingly, the occupiers received significant doses of radiation and panicked at the first sign of illness. And it showed up very quickly.”

Local reports suggest that seven buses with the zapped troops arrived in Gomel early Thursday. Journalists on the ground have also reported “ghost buses” of dead soldiers being transported from Belarus to Russia under the cover of dark.

(Read More) https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-t ... l-trenches

[weatheriscool]

Putin ordering draft of 135,000 amid difficulties in Ukraine war
Source: The Hill

Russian President Vladimir Putin is ordering a draft of nearly 135,000 individuals as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not been the easy success story the Kremlin was hoping for.

The government published a decree by Putin on Monday that stated 134,650 Russians who are not already in the military or reserves will be drafted, state media outlet TASS reported. The draft will run from April 1 to July 15 and choose from men ages 18 to 27, according to the document.

The move comes more than a month into Russia’s attack on Ukraine, a war many believed Russia would win in days. Western countries said the resistance of the Ukrainian people came as a shock to Moscow, and Russia has still been unable to capture any major cities. The slow progress and strong resistance have reportedly dampened the morale of Russian troops as tensions arise between the military and Putin.

The document from Monday also says military personnel will be discharged whose contracts are up, according to TASS.

Read more: https://thehill.com/policy/internationa ... raine-war/