The Singularity - Official Thread

[Cyber_Rebel]

Just wait until people start walking around with some sort of designation that they have been augmented inside their body like Neuralink for example. The whole part about religious terrorists since they would be against this sort of thing is accurate and I forget the name of the dude with the Alex Jensen Deus Ex image because the series talks about this exact danger happening when it gets in the face of more people.

Edit to add: Dude's name is Cyber_Rebel. Hell yeah lol.

You bet, and to be fair, there is an actual worry to be had. Someone with a brain augment, for example, who processes information faster, retains better memory, can work more solid hours due to potentially being more mentally stable, can reach conclusions faster, etc. That person is just a much better hire than a baseline person would be without it, and this will be exponentially so when we factor highly skilled workers. Now, combine that with automation/artificial intelligence reaching its real stride, which honestly requires augmented humans to keep pace.

There is most definitely going to be opposition, and we need to be ready to properly educate people, so they won't fall into dark age luddism. If worse comes to worse, allow them the choice to live like the Amish within their own communities, with state welfare. Would be easier with an A.I. to oversee them and automated delivery systems. I think that's fair, live and let live.

@Yuli

I can see where they're coming from, but as someone old enough to remember logging onto those first old sites, I have to wonder if it was really any "better." Freer and in a way unique, but I think that's as much due to the internet being this new futuristic thing at the time and everyone was kind of taken aback by it. If the internet were still the same way as then, would it really add anything relevant to the lives of those who used it over the current one? It even seems inevitable we'd reach this point anyways, not just due to capitalism, but because people are people.

If the internet is fake, then the world itself too is also fake.

[Ozzie guy]

r/singularity was getting hyped over this saying we are close to AGI yada yada yada


https://deepmind.com/research/publicati ... Human-Data

[Tadasuke]

r/singularity was getting hyped over this saying we are close to AGI yada yada yada

https://deepmind.com/research/publicati ... Human-Data

I don't think we are close to AGI or the Singularity. I now think that AGI will happen during the second half (2051-2100) of this century and the Singularity (if it happens at all) will happen during the first half of the next century (2101-2150). But this doesn't mean we will not see exponential progress during the remaining 28.81 years of the first half (2001-2050). The next 10 years will bring higher growth of GDP, than during the entire XX century and that is very likely. So in other words, in the next 10 years there will be more change than during the entire last century! So we live in exponential times indeed. Keep in mind, that the majority of GDP growth will happen in the so called developing countries, not in the West. Just look at the hundreds of 150-300 metres skyscrapers under construction in China, such buildings used to be a rarity, but now they are becoming more common. China's GDP in 2021 alone grew by more than their entire GDP in the year 2000. Imagine that! More change happening in one year than in all the thousands of years before XXI century!

[Nanotechandmorefuture]

The bigger question would be if the internet is dead for the most part then how long has it been dead for? For all we know even the internet of the 90's was dead with a select few websites making things fun. This is probably one of the most informed videos I have seen yet from an old school woke guy not whatever the hell watered down bs the current times call "woke".

[Ozzie guy]

"New Chinese exascale supercomputer runs 'brain-scale AI' - Massive model gobbles 37 million homegrown 'Sunway' cores. Pre-trained language model with 14.5 Trillion parameters with mixed precision performance of over one exaflop"

[Tadasuke]

"New Chinese exascale supercomputer runs 'brain-scale AI' - Massive model gobbles 37 million homegrown 'Sunway' cores. Pre-trained language model with 14.5 Trillion parameters with mixed precision performance of over one exaflop"

I personally am not impressed with 100 megawatts or so, gigantic supercomputer, built on 14nm and no revolutionary new architectures or anything.
It just excels in Linpack fp64 flops and that's pretty much it. I bet its real performance isn't anything special, just like Sunway TaihuLight's. Japanese Fugaku for example performs 16.0 HPCG-petaflops, while Chinese Sunway TaihuLight performs a puny 480.85 HPCG-teraflops. These Linpack petaflops and exaflops are just theoretical numbers. In real performance we are barely in petascale. We should look at Sum 500, rather than the TOP 3. To change the world it would require every supercomputer being in exascale.

[Yuli Ban]

[Ozzie guy]

I saw that on r/singularity

It seems like r/singularity is now posting a significant AI breakthrough every few days when some months/a year or two ago we would have a breakthrough like this every month or so.

Does a breakthrough/noticable improvement every few days reflect reality or is r/singularity now just full of false hype?

[Tadasuke]

This AI programming feat is very impressive. There are breakthroughs after breakthroughs in AI. Looks like the 2030s will be really different than 2022. Automation will go in full gear by 2030 probably.

[Yuli Ban]

I saw that on r/singularity

It seems like r/singularity is now posting a significant AI breakthrough every few days when some months/a year or two ago we would have a breakthrough like this every month or so.

Does a breakthrough/noticable improvement every few days reflect reality or is r/singularity now just full of false hype?

It all comes down to how far this goes towards generalizing AI.

AI breakthrough after breakthrough is hype-inducing, but even as late as 2018 I would say in retrospect we were no closer to AGI than we were in 1968 barring the raw power of modern computing. And this despite a world of progress in the field of narrow AI.
It's only been in the past 4 years with the rise of transformers that we've seen the first tantalizing hints of generality. No matter how strong narrow AI becomes, it's of little consequence to the path towards general AI. The first general AI is not going to be a super-strong narrow AI; it's going to be obvious from the start that it's a general-purpose machine. It doesn't matter how long a line is; it'll never be a cube.

This particular breakthrough is related to the current paradigm and generalizable transformer models, so it's naturally more impressive than something like AutoML.
Breakthroughs in this field are far more eyebrow-raising because of that, so I'd definitely put some stock into it giving us some cool programs, but ultimately the first proto-AGI could be announced at any moment this decade, so the rate of progress seen here is more of a sideshow to keep people invested.

[wjfox]

Wow, we just exceeded the 100 billion mark for transistor counts...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count

https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2022/03/ ... -computer/

Moore's Law is still on track.

[wjfox]

Transistor gate is just 0.3 nm long

20th March 2022

Using graphene and molybdenum disulphide, scientists in China have made a transistor gate with a length of only 0.3 nanometres, equivalent to just one carbon atom, by exploiting the vertical aspect of the device.

[...]

"We have realised the world's smallest gate-length transistor," said Tian-Ling Ren, senior study author and an electrical engineer at Tsinghua University in Beijing. "The next goal is making a 1-bit CPU."

Read more: https://www.futuretimeline.net/blog/202 ... -china.htm

[Ozzie guy]

Of late I have been thinking "Human level AI" is a very vague concept, there are thousands of possible combinations of an AI being better than humans at a lot of things whist worse than humans at a lot of things.

Proto AGI is actually a better definitive line in the sand, you ether have very retarded AGI or you don't.

What is nice is that proto AGI is believed to be at the latest only 2 years and 9 months away and will mark the start of AGIs getting better at an exponential rate.

I guess this is only relevant psychologically as a change in morale but I will drop waiting for the vague human level AI and wait for proto AGI like I did in the past which is much closer.

[TrueAnimationFan]

Of late I have been thinking "Human level AI" is a very vague concept, there are thousands of possible combinations of an AI being better than humans at a lot of things whist worse than humans at a lot of things.

Proto AGI is actually a better definitive line in the sand, you ether have very retarded AGI or you don't.

What is nice is that proto AGI is believed to be at the latest only 2 years and 9 months away and will mark the start of AGIs getting better at an exponential rate.

I guess this is only relevant psychologically as a change in morale but I will drop waiting for the vague human level AI and wait for proto AGI like I did in the past which is much closer.

I always assumed when people said "human level AI" they meant something that you'd expect more like 20 years from now, where there may be a (brief?) stretch of time when man and machine are basically at the same level of skill, thought speed and communication ability.

[Yuli Ban]

The concept of "proto-AGI" stems directly from my early musings about a "weak AGI"

In other words, around 2015 or so, I noticed that our delineation of AI abilities was much too muddled. We had multiple terms to describe the same thing, so I decided to reuse "weak" and "narrow"/"strong" and "general" to have different meanings.
Weak AI doesn't necessarily mean narrow/single-purpose/brittle AI. It just means any AI that's not par-human in ability. So it's possible to have a "strong narrow AI."
Strong AI doesn't necessarily mean general/multi-purpose/complete AI. It just means any AI that's above human in ability. So it's possible to have a "weak general AI."

I also realized that there had to be an intermediate stage of AI, something in between narrow and general AI.

Of course I have zero sway in the field of AI for obvious reasons, so it makes sense this never took off. But I'm still fascinated by that twilight range, and at some point I figured that it'd simply be easier to fall back on "proto-AGI" to describe those edge-cases. Surely there has to be a point where we develop multipurpose AI, and it's not going to be so strict as "today, we only have narrow AI, tomorrow we have human-level general AI." We already see this fuzziness with general-learning algorithms and transformers. Hence my reasoning that proto-AGI must be possible, that we will develop a multipurpose tool that won't be sentient or human-level, but will allow us to generalize across all tasks.

[Yuli Ban]

[Tadasuke]

As time goes on, I believe in the Singularity less and less. But not because I think the future is worse than the present, or that the future won't bring exponential progress, but because I'm not sure if exponential progress must mean that the Singularity happening. I do think that there will come a time when some people do say that the Singularity is happening now, but not everyone will agree. If the Singularity will happen, I predict it in 2114. This is based upon tech acceleration. The Singularity is when a single augmented human being or a single AI becomes more intelligent and more capable (in everything) than the entire human race combined. I don't think that's close. Doesn't look to be close. Unless you call 2114 as close. But yes, progress is definitely exponential.

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]

starspawn0
It surpasses Chinchilla; and, they applied chain-of-thought reasoning to make progress on math reasoning. Still not off-the-charts strong on math -- but definitely improving.

Addendum: The improvement on GSM8K is a lot bigger than mentioned in the "self-consistency" paper:

https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.11171

In that paper, the top score mentioned was 35% accurate using fine-tuning on 7,500 examples + access to calculator. But then there was a score of 55% achieved using a fine-tuned GPT-3; and, now, Pathways brings that up to 58%.

The Pathways blog post makes no mention of "self-consistency", though maybe that's what they mean by "8-shot prompting" (I don't think so -- I think that's just the 8 prompts they used in all their previous papers to trigger models to answer math questions accurately). Did they make use of it? If not, it should lead to further gains if used -- maybe pushing performance well past the 60% threshold they mention.