The United States in 2076

[wjfox]

4th July 2076 will mark the tricentennial of American independence.

This follows the bicentennial of 1976, a hundred years earlier, which saw major celebrations from coast to coast.

What do you imagine the United States will be like in 2076? Will the country even still exist as a unified entity?

How might America evolve in terms of politics, economics, demographics and culture in the 54 years between now and then?

This could make for an interesting prediction on our timeline, and I only want to write something that has a consensus/majority view, so I'm interested in your ideas and suggestions.



User:Wapcaplet, edited by User:Ed g2s, User:Dbenbenn, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

[joe00uk]

I would be very surprised if the United States still existed in 2076. Perhaps some smaller rump state in the Mid-Atlantic region will still call itself the "United States", but I don't think there's much chance that all the territories currently belonging to the federal government will stay together for another 50 years.

[caltrek]

I like to think in terms of alternative timelines.

One alternative might very well be along the lines that joe00uk suggests. I would just add that the West coast might also belong to what remains of the "United States" although it might form its own country with relatively close ties to that remaining original nation.

Seceding states might include Texas, states in the deep south, and some of the states of the mid-West (with perhaps Colorado and New Mexico remaining as part of the "United States."}

What would divide them?

The belief in the importance of "one person one vote" democracy. The Big Lie is just a disguised way of saying that people of color should not enjoy the same voting rights as folks of strictly West European descent. So, as with the Civil War, seceding states might insist on a sort of caste system. One that would also be marked by xenophobic immigration policies. Alternatively, it might be the Blue states that secede to avoid being under a Trumpian like tyrant.

Ukraine shows us that one thing that would have to be worked out would be the disposition of nuclear weapons. The two or three resulting nations might each want to retain a portion of the nuclear arsenal to ensure against invasion from the other.

Abortion rights might be respected in the new Blue republics, while "right to life" laws might prevail in the red republics.

The new Red State republics might continue to pursue privatization and deregulation, while the Blue state republics might see a flourishing of communes, co-ops, labor unions and secular non-profit institutions, along with relatively strict environmental protection laws.

In the other alternative timeline, Trumpism would recede and "one person one vote" democracy would once again be realized as a national value. Tensions over cultural issues such as LGBT+ rights might also recede as all segments of all geographic regions would come to accept such rights as have been recently codified into law. The issue of abortion might continue to fester, with the Supreme Court more or less completely overturning Roe v. Wade, or a more liberal court could come to reinstate abortion rights.

On the economic front, extreme divisions in wealth between the one per-centers and the poor might lessen in severity.

I will leave likely technological development up to other FT forum participants to propose and discuss.

[wjfox]

I might add a poll to this thread to see what the likely scenario is, regarding a potential breakup or not.

What poll options do you think I should include?

[joe00uk]

I might add a poll to this thread to see what the likely scenario is, regarding a potential breakup or not.

What poll options do you think I should include?

Perhaps something like:

By 2076, which of the following do you think is the most likely scenario for the United States?

1. Dissolution into several new nations
2. Attempted but failed dissolution/secession
3. Uncontested survival as a single political entity (meaning the US stays together without any attempted secessions)
4. Most of the US stays together with only small areas seceding (e.g. if it was limited to something like Hawaiian independence)

[weatheriscool]

1. Dissolution into several new nations

Most likely...Far too many groups that hate each other and have historic reasons to want to break off.

[erowind]

.

[raklian]

6. Nothing significantly changes except for the electoral map which will be more Democratic with a wider proliferation of Independents and a tiny Republican minority. Congress finally has a 3rd party - the Progressive Party - which is a vestige of the dissolved UK Parliament and it rivals the Democrats in the number of Congressional seats. England becomes 53rd state after Puerto Rico and District of Columbia, with Alberta in a decades long negotiations to join the federation as the 54th. It is all thanks to President Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's outstanding performance during her two terms in the 2030s-2040s which reinvigorates the American experiment by successfully implementing social reforms (basic income, universal healthcare, free education, a dramatically reduced defense budget, etc.) which becomes known as the "Greater Deal" that dramatically eases the societal ills that plagued Americans in the earlier decades. Congress makes several attempts to amend the Constitution to allow another two terms for her, but the Independents and Republicans mount a desperate resistance that is eventually successful.

[Doozer]

Frankly, I see the United States going down the path of Rome in the next century or so.

[Lurking]

Frankly, I see the United States going down the path of Rome in the next century or so.

I would see it more similar to what happened to England or France, USSR at worst.

[Doozer]

Frankly, I see the United States going down the path of Rome in the next century or so.

I would see it more similar to what happened to England or France, USSR at worst.

Like breaking into smaller states?

[joe00uk]

Frankly, I see the United States going down the path of Rome in the next century or so.

I would see it more similar to what happened to England or France, USSR at worst.

There will likely be similarities to all of the above. Hopefully they can avoid getting some of Yugoslavia thrown into the mix, but I wouldn't bet on that. In terms of the Roman analogy, every empire in history rises, peaks and then declines until it no longer exists. But with the Roman empire, its fall marked the end of the entire civilisation it belonged to. Civilisations are wider than individual states and empires. What the Roman Empire belonged to was what we call Classical Civilisation, which had its beginnings as the Greek Dark Ages bottomed out around 750 BC after the fall of the Mycenaean Greek civilisation.

Likewise, the industrial civilisation that we live in today and has included empires as diverse as the British, the French, the Soviet Union and US hegemony began after the medieval Dark Ages bottomed out and gave way to the Renaissance. The wider civilisation we're part of now has included a great many states and empires. The fall of US hegemony, and the dissolution of the US itself, will just be one more imperial fall within industrial civilisation - just like the Soviet Union before it, and the various empires of Western Europe before that.

Like every other civilisation before it, our industrial civilisation will follow the same pattern of decline and fall (I would argue we're already well into the decline). I think that perhaps Chinese hegemony in the wake of US collapse may be the last great "empire" of industrial civilisation before whatever new Dark Age arrives, but it will be a very gradual fading out rather than waking up one day to find we're suddenly back to a world of feudal statelets. When the Roman Empire collapsed, its eastern half survived and kept many of the same political structures going for another millennium under the Byzantine Empire, even if it had a vastly reduced resource and technological base to work from. Perhaps something similar will happen with today's industrial civilisation. Even though the resources and technology we have today won't be there, maybe some of the political structures we have today will find some way to survive in some parts of the world for a long time to come - maybe including some attempts to recreate an American-style republic. Certainly, having been founded in the 18th Century, we know that can be done on a much lower budget than we've become accustomed to today.

[Cyber_Rebel]

54 years from now? No, can't really see it. If political instability doesn't end it, I imagine the climate crisis (technically related) most certainly will. I think balkanization along regional lines will be the result in the future, with the historical "Yankee" states representing the former culture of the US.

Here's an interesting map of what someone believes that could look like, based on historical precedent regarding the regional culture(s):

Welcome (Back) to the Divided States of America by Colin Woodward, author of Balkanized America

[wjfox]

I've been thinking about this again. How about the following options for a poll?

They are in decreasing order of "power", starting with an expansion and going down to complete collapse. If there's a majority for options 3 or 4 then I might do a second thread/poll, in which we can determine what those new territories might look like. I'll then write the prediction for our timeline.

-----

1. Expansion
The U.S. expands beyond its current borders, with Canada and/or Mexico being annexed or voluntarily unifying, either partially or fully.

2. Status quo
The U.S. remains largely the same as in 2022, with little or no change to its territory or unity.

3. Balkanisation
The U.S. becomes divided into two, or perhaps several independent regions (e.g. north and south, or coastal areas), each with its own government.

4. Extreme balkanisation
Severe political, economic, environmental or other turmoil has resulted in a breakdown of the U.S. into dozens or even hundreds of separate entities.

5. Total collapse
Climate change, war, and/or other existential threats are so catastrophic, the U.S. effectively no longer exists. Most or all of the country is in anarchy.

[joe00uk]

I've been thinking about this again. How about the following options for a poll?

Sounds good to me!

[weatheriscool]

3. Balkanisation
The U.S. becomes divided into two, or perhaps several independent regions (e.g. north and south, or coastal areas), each with its own government.

This is what happens when you let in tens of millions of people that don't value the founders, the constitution or the culture that formed and made the country successful. The germanic tribes sure didn't value the western portion of the roman empire 1,600 years ago. This is also why there's never going to be a world government or a borderless world as People want to be with their own people and will always form governments and societies around such concepts and drives. Nations are always successful when they're proud of who they're and people can agree towards a goal that favors them and them alone. Look at how successful China is today...it is 98% Han chinese.

There's 200 nations on this planet and we could add 20, 50 or even a 100 more as there's a hell of a lot of people throughout this world that want secession. Iraq could break up into 3 nations! Yemen could break up into 2, And America probably will break up into 2 or 3 as different groups with different opinions and loyalties gain power.

America has peaked and likely did so during the 1950's-1980's culturally and in tech advancements.

I know this is a very unpopular view on things as it goes against the view that we will all live together in peace and in a borderless world. But the truth is that is not going to happen. There will never be peace! There will never be a borderless world. At least as long as we're a tribal primate like species that don't value collective behavior or over our own pride and that of our own people or in group.

[raklian]

I won't care what happens to the US in 2076 because I'll be busy thriving, after being rejuvenated to a 20-something young adult again, in a brand-new, robot-built post-scarcity city-state bordering the Hudson Bay way up north where the climate is similar to what northern USA is today.

[SerethiaFalcon]

It isn't just immigration populations that can drastically change a nation's culture, though. If you have a huge population of ex-pats/adults who have lived in a different country than their own for an extended period of time, their children will largely not be a hundred percent loyal to their home country, from my personal experience. Some will even hate their home country while still living within its borders. Regardless, the greatest change to culture is brought through technology, from my observation. Also, the US was founded through migration and exploitation, so the only constant in the US is change. It is not surprising that it continues to shift and morph with the fluctuations in migration patterns.

[Tadasuke]

I vote for Status quo.

[wjfox]

Right, I've added a poll. I'd be really grateful if you'd all vote. Thanks.