I agree, we should have this conversation, given Russia's unilateral escalation in rhetoric with implied threats of nuclear war (over sanctions lol) and raising its nuclear alert status.Yuli Ban wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:28 pm Well, we're not going to be able to avoid this discussion forever it seems.
So my thoughts on it haven't changed since my Walpurgisnacht panic attack back in 2014: do hope that one of three things is the reality if nuclear war breaks out—For whatever reason, the US intel doesn't think nuclear war is happening though. They're not buying into the idea Putin's actually gone MAD.
- Most nuclear weapons are defective, intercepted, and small-yield. Nuclear winter fails to materialize. Agriculture, though reduced, remains. An exchange of less than 1,000 working warheads total, with the vast majority being Hiroshima-sized or smaller, would be devastating but survivable for humanity and possibly even civilization. It'd irreversibly change us, but in the end, life would indeed go on...
- You live in a place that will be bombed. I'm not so lucky, as I live in nondescript small city (less than 25,000 people) away from military installations, missile silos, or important targets. I'll almost certainly just lose electricity and hear the dull thump of civilization falling around me. I don't even live in the fallout zone...
- The USicans or Ruskies were being naughty naughty little children and developed things they shouldn't have. Things like cobalt bombs. In which case, I speak no hyperbole when I say "everyone dies." In that case, we won't worry about our end for long. I call this one "Clean Slate Theory" because it means that those in power decided that, should nuclear war happens, we ought to just start Earth off as a clean slate again. In which case maybe the birds, octopi, or chimps will develop civilization again someday.
1. Russia has the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world at ~6400. However, of those 1,456 are currently active (and these are just warheads, not actual ICBMs). They need to be mounted on ICBMs or other launch mechanisms, which further reduces the amount of targets to choose from. In a nuclear exchange, neither side would get to use their entire stockpiles, so already we've cut down the amount of possible apocalypse. Like you say, of those 1456 some will likely be defective, or intercepted. Now consider this also; Russia needs to neutralize targets in many countries all over the world. From the US, to Canada, to pretty much all of Europe, and probably even other US allies like Israel, Japan, and Australia. In each of those countries, there are hundreds of targets, from civilian centers, to military bases, to shipyards, steel processing factories, mines, and so on. Also, no single strike is guaranteed to suceed, so multiple ICBMs need to be assigned to important targets. So Russia's arsenal would really be stretched quite thin, and wouldn't achieve all its objectives. The US and NATO on the other hand, can focus only on targets in Russia, of which there are far fewer. For reference, the US has an active inventory of 1,357 warheads. The UK has 120 active warheads. France has 280 warheads. The US and NATO wouldn't come out of it looking pretty, but Russia would be a lot worse off. Unless China decides to join in. But why would they risk their necks? Their two biggest threats are taking each other out, if they just hide in bunkers and come out in a few years, the world will be theirs for the taking.
2. The idea of nuclear winter is from studies done the 80s. Needless to say, models have improved greatly since then, and they seem to show that it might not be as apocalyptic as thought. Yes, it would end the warring nations and result in freezing temperatures for a year or two probably, but maybe there is hope other nations would survive.
3. Well if those weapons are used, then indeed we're all screwed. Russia also said it was working on some apocalyptic radioactive tsunami bomb a few years ago. Maybe this would be an incentive for China and others to bomb both Russia and the US in this scenario, to ensure such doomsday devices aren't released from either side.