Ukraine War Watch Thread

[weatheriscool]

US announces Abrams tanks for Poland as tensions with Russia escalate
Source: Reuters

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced on Friday the planned sale of 250 Abrams tanks to Poland, as Washington moves to strengthen the defenses of a key eastern European ally amid a mounting threat of war between neighbouring Ukraine and Russia.

"This is the most modern version of the Abrams, and will provide Poland with a highly-advanced tank capability," Austin told a news conference following talks in Warsaw, adding that the delivery timeframe was under discussion.

"It will also strengthen our interoperability with the Polish armed forces, boosting the credibility of our combined deterrence efforts and those of our other NATO Allies."

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/us-announ ... 022-02-18/

[wjfox]

[wjfox]

[wjfox]

Ukrainian officials run from apparent shelling

[weatheriscool]

Russian troops will remain indefinitely, says Belarus, as fears rise of Ukraine invasion
Source: Guardian

Sun 20 Feb 2022 12.44 GMT

Defence minister says soldiers will stay after end of joint exercises due to ‘escalation of situation’ in Donbas

Russian troops sent to Belarus for military exercises will remain in the country indefinitely, Belarus’s defence ministry has said, in a decision that will further fuel concerns Moscow is planning an imminent Ukraine invasion.

Belarus’s defence minister, Gen Viktor Khrenin, said Russian soldiers would stay after large-scale joint drills were completed on Sunday. He said the move was necessary because of the “escalation of the situation” in the Donbas, in the east of Ukraine.

The Kremlin had promised to remove its forces from Belarus once the 10-day exercise, which began on 10 February, ended. It has deployed what the Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, said was the largest concentration of soldiers and modern weapons in Belarus since the cold war.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... e-invasion

[wjfox]

Russia creating lists of Ukrainians 'to be killed or sent to camps' following invasion - UN ambassador

Feb 21, 2022, 07:47 AM

Russia is creating lists of Ukrainians "to be killed or sent to camps" in the event of an invasion, said Bathsheba Nell Crocker, the US ambassador to the United Nations.

"We are deeply concerned about Russia's continuing human rights abuses in the parts of Ukraine it already occupies and have every reason to believe those concerns will multiply following a new military offensive," she wrote in a letter to UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet shared by the Washington Post on Monday.

Crocker wrote that "disturbing information" obtained by the US suggests that Russia is already planning human rights abuses ahead of a possible invasion of Ukraine. She added that Russian forces had used tactics such as targeted killings, kidnappings, illegal detentions, and torture during previous operations.

According to Crocker, dissidents, journalists, ethnic minority groups, and LGBTQ+ individuals are likely targets.

"Specifically, we have credible information that indicates Russian forces are creating lists of identified Ukrainians to be killed or sent to camps following a military occupation. We also have credible information that Russian forces will likely use lethal measures to disperse peaceful protests or otherwise counter peaceful exercises of perceived resistance from civilian populations," she added.

https://www.businessinsider.co.za/russi ... dor-2022-2

[caltrek]

Biden and Putin Agree 'In Principle' to Ukraine Summit Amid Fears of War
by Jake Johnson
February 21, 2022

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/ ... -fears-war

Introduction:

(Common Dreams) U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday agreed "in principle" to hold a summit on Ukraine as global fears of a war involving the two nuclear-armed powers remain high.

In a statement, the office of French President Emmanuel Macron—who spoke separately with Putin and Biden on Sunday—said that both leaders accepted the idea of the summit, though the precise details have yet to be agreed upon.

Medea Benjamin, co-founder of the U.S.-based peace group CodePink, applauded Macron for brokering the diplomatic effort.

"If he can get Putin and Biden to meet, if he can stop a war in Ukraine, he will be a hero," Benjamin wrote in a Twitter post.

The White House confirmed late Sunday that Biden "accepted in principle a meeting with President Putin," which could take place following a scheduled meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Europe later this week.

[Yuli Ban]

[Ken_J]

lets be real here for a minute though. Russia is gonna ride in and do what it wants, the UN is gonna wag it's fingers and tutt at them, the US will talk about how terrible it all is and use the tentions to funnel money into defense contractors and other cold war coffers getting revived as privatized companies, but never actually do any on the ground fighting. There may be some third world proxy conflicts that get whipped up where some rebel faction in a third world country with a resource or right of way for pipelines are funded and supplied to fight and die against some counter faction from the same or neighboring thirdrd world country are funded and supplied by the other side. and seven to ten years down the line the region will be a complete mess, and the regions around it will be further destabalized by refugees and there will be humanitarian crisis and sanctions put in place starting in a year or so.

Meanwhile there will be a lot of noises made on diplomatic stages. And knowing all that Russia may take another go at this in a few years. No US soldier will fight or die against a Russian. Nobody in any of the Big posturing nations will do much more than be huffy and aghast at the reprehensible conduct of the others.

Maybe we get to see a bit of the cyber warfare trial runs in the background, but always just deniable enough as lone cyber terrorist cells and not government sanctioned actions.

all this is dependent on avoiding a Ferdinand event. Something terrible happening to a Big name player on the world stage, or one of their family or political friends, with the ties back to opposition not well concealed or covered up poorly enough that the agrieved party can feel that it's proof enough and loosely allied people can feel a more agressive reaction is understandable if not fully supported.

[weatheriscool]

Ruble Plunges To 80 Against The Dollar As Putin Recognizes Breakaway Republics
Source: forbes.co

Russia’s stocks and currency were the worst performers on global markets Monday, as President Vladimir Putin signed a decree recognizing two partially separatist-controlled regions in Ukraine as independent states, a move that provoked renewed threats of severe economic sanctions against Russia should it invade Ukraine.

Read more: https://www.forbes.com/sites/zacharysmi ... 9543c63acb

[weatheriscool]

Russia acquires the right to build military bases in eastern Ukraine
Source: Guardian

00:59

Russia has acquired the right to build military bases in Ukraine’s two breakaway regions under treaties signed by President Vladimir Putin with their separatist leaders, Reuters is reporting.

Putin on Monday officially recognised the two breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine. He later announced he was ordering troops to the region on a “peacekeeping mission”, defying western warnings that such a step would be illegal and kill peace negotiations.

Under the two identical friendship treaties, submitted by Putin for ratification by parliament, Russia has the right to build bases in the separatist regions and they, on paper, can do the same in Russia.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... ve-updates

[weatheriscool]

EU sanctions 351 Russian lawmakers who voted to recognise Ukraine's separatist republics
Source: euronews.com

The European Union has agreed to sanction the 351 members of the State Duma who voted in favour of Russia's recognition of the self-proclaimed people's republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, in eastern Ukraine.

The bloc will also punish 27 individuals and entities accused of destabilising Ukraine, waging disinformation campaigns and providing financial support to the two separatist regions.

The targets will come from the political, military, business and media sectors, and will be subject to asset freezes and travel bans, which means they will not be allowed to enter or transit through EU territory.

"This is a clear escalation of Russian aggression against Ukraine," said Josep Borell, the EU's top diplomat, in a press conference in Paris.

....................

Read more: https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022 ... -republics

[wjfox]

Ironically, Putin may have just accelerated Europe's transition away from gas.

-----

Estonia calls on Europe to wean itself off Russian gas

February 22, 20227:38 PM GMT

VILNIUS, Feb 22 (Reuters) - Europe should develop green energy and import more liquefied natural gas (LNG) to reduce its dependence on Russia, Estonian Prime Minster Kaja Kallas told Reuters on Tuesday as the West braced for the possibility of a big Russian assault on Ukraine.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/es ... 2022-02-22

[caltrek]

What Putin Has Done in Eastern Ukraine Is Illegal, But Is It a Full Invasion?
by Anatol Lieven
February 22, 2022

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2022 ... l-invasion

Extract:

(Common Dreams) Russia's official recognition of the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk republics is both illegal under international law and acutely unhelpful politically, and makes a diplomatic resolution of the existing crisis even less likely.

The Minsk II process for a resolution of the Donbas conflict is now dead—though to be fair, the Ukrainian government had long since made clear that it had no intention of implementing its basic provisions (on autonomy for the Donbas), and the West had made clear that it had no intention of pressuring Ukraine to do so.
…
So far, the Russian recognition of the Donbas republics is a very different matter indeed from the full-scale invasion of the whole of Ukraine against which Washington and NATO have warned, and which the "Defend Ukraine Sovereignty" sanctions bill before the U.S. Congress today is intended to deter. Such an invasion would be a vastly greater violation of international law, and would lead to a vastly greater and more dangerous conflict. It could be compared to a scenario in which, rather than invading part of Cyprus in 1974, Turkey had occupied the whole of Cyprus, or even Greece itself. Such an invasion, if God forbid it occurs, should meet with the harshest possible Western economic and political response.
…
There can also be different levels of military action. A Russian seizure of the whole of Ukraine, as imagined by Washington, seems inherently unlikely. An occupation of Russian-speaking areas of eastern and southern Ukraine is much more plausible. It may also be, however, that Russia will content itself with inflicting a limited local defeat on Ukrainian forces in the Donbas, by way of illustrating NATO's inability to help Ukraine, followed perhaps by a pause to see what the West does next.
…
Russia's action has narrowed the space for diplomacy to resolve this crisis, but not yet destroyed it. As long as there is any hope of preventing a wider war, it is our duty to pursue it, both by the genuine and credible threat of massive economic sanctions, and by the genuine and sincere offer of reasonable compromise.

caltrek's comment: I find the above cited article to be balanced and reasonable. Unfortunately, U.S. media, such as MSNBC, has taken on a decidedly more hawkish tone. This has included admittedly plausible reports of extreme propaganda in Russian language media, wherein outlandish complaints of genocide against Russian language residents in the Ukraine are claimed. In this atmosphere, finding a middle ground is growing increasingly difficult.

[caltrek]

Ukrainian Government and Bank Websites Hit by Mass Cyberattack
by Jacon Knutson
February 23, 2022

https://www.axios.com/ukraine-governmen ... 9836f.html

Introduction:

(Axios) A cyberattack on Wednesday hit Ukrainian government websites and banks, the country's digital minister confirmed on Telegram.

Why it matters: Ukraine's government on Monday warned of plans organized on online hacking forums to launch a spate of cyberattacks against the country's public, banking and defense sectors amid escalating tensions with Russia.

What they're saying: The websites of Ukraine's Cabinet of Ministers, parliament Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Defense, as well as the web pages of multiple banks were affected by Wednesday's “mass distributed denial-of-service attack," according to Ukraine's Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov.

The U.S. has repeatedly warned that it believes Moscow has been behind recent cyberattacks against Ukraine and that such actions would be a key component of a major Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine has now suffered at least three major cyberattacks against its government financial websites since January.

[weatheriscool]

Ukraine plans state of emergency as it prepares national defense
Source: Washington Post

Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council secretary, Oleksiy Danilov, announced plans Wednesday for a state of emergency, as the nation prepared to defend itself after Russian lawmakers approved President Vladimir Putin’s call to send troops to regions of eastern Ukraine.

Ukraine’s parliament also passed a law to allow people to carry firearms for defense. Danilov said that under the state of emergency, curfews would be imposed in certain regions only “if necessary, in the event of increased Russian aggression.” The 30-day state of emergency, which must be confirmed by parliament, allows Ukraine to impose curfews and restrictions on mass gatherings in certain regions.

It does not apply to the two eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk that were recognized by Putin on Monday as independent states and where fighting broke out when Russia backed separatist rebels there in 2014. Two-thirds of the territory is under Kyiv’s control, and the rest is under insurgent control.

Putin’s move to recognize the regions in their entirety, not just the areas under rebel control, has sharply raised the risks of a major military escalation. Danilov rejected Putin’s accusation that Ukraine might develop nuclear weapons, a charge used by Putin to try to justify his actions against Ukraine. Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons in 1994 in return for guarantees in the Budapest Memorandum from Russia, the United States and Britain that they would not attack Ukraine.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... A6TA7XC27Y

[weatheriscool]

Ukraine starts drafting reservists aged 18-60 after president's order
Source: Reuters

KYIV, Feb 23 (Reuters) - Ukraine on Wednesday has started conscripting reservists aged 18-60 following a decree by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the armed forces said in a statement.

The maximum service period is one year.

Zelenskiy on Tuesday said he was introducing the conscription of reservists but ruled out a general mobilisation after Russia announced it was moving troops into eastern Ukraine.

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk ... 022-02-23/

[andmar74]

https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-us-w ... rs-1681798

Exclusive: U.S. Warns Ukraine of Full-Scale Russian Invasion Within 48 Hours

[wjfox]

Putin must be out of his mind. What good can come from this? He's only worsening Russia's standing in the world, crippling its finances, and hastening his own demise as leader.

[Yuli Ban]