Ukraine War Watch Thread

[weatheriscool]

If we go to war against Russia, I predict China will side with Russia and we will see world war III. Kind of like Italy and Germany in wwII. It will probably be the most deadly and ugliest war in history. God help us.

[Lurking]

If we go to war against Russia, I predict China will side with Russia and we will see world war III. Kind of like Italy and Germany in wwII. It will probably be the most deadly and ugliest war in history. God help us.

I personally doubt it will get to that point, and maybe it could even be avoided altogether (at least for a few years).

[andmar74]

I can't imagine a world war over Ukraine, only if some mistakes happen.
Russia would need to attack a NATO country for that, which is unlikely.

[Yuli Ban]

A group of around 30 elite British troops has arrived in Ukraine to help train the Ukrainian armed forces on new anti-tank weapons gifted by the UK amid fears of an imminent, new Russian invasion, Sky News understands.

The members of the Ranger Regiment - part of the army's newly-formed Special Operations Brigade - flew out on military planes that also airlifted a total of some 2,000 anti-tank missile launchers to the country during the course of this week.

British surveillance aircraft have also been spotted as part of a quiet but notable build-up of support to Ukraine's military by the UK.

Open source flight-tracking software has plotted Royal Air Force C-17 transport aircraft flying back and forth between the UK and Ukraine.

[Yuli Ban]

Russia announced on Thursday its navy wouldstage a sweeping set of exercisesinvolving all its fleets this month and next from the Pacific to the Atlantic, the latest show of strength in a surge of military activity during a standoff with the West.

The drills will take place in the seas directly adjacent to Russia and also feature manoeuvres in the Mediterranean, the North Sea, the Sea of Okhotsk, the northeast Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific, it said.

They will draw on 140 warships and support vessels, 60 planes, 1,000 units of military hardware and around 10,000 servicemen, the Ministry of Defence said in a statement.

[Yuli Ban]

Military equipment, both Belarusian and Russian, continues to be spotted in different regions of Belarus. Separately, it is worth noting that there are more and more reports every day about the deployment of military equipment in the area of Mozyr, Rechitsa, and Yelsk. However, the Ministry of Defense did not report that the drills would be conducted in the Gomel region.

[Yuli Ban]

Russia has reportedly deployed a large number of Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) systems in areas bordering Ukraine, adding fresh fuel to the ongoing tension between the two neighbors.

The latest intelligence assessment, which was shared with CNN, by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense suggests that the Russian military build-up is “almost completed”. It singles out the Iskander-M as a key weapon system that would be employed to “destroy vital objects” if Moscow launches a new invasion against Ukraine.

The biggest concern for the west is that the Iskander can be equipped with tactical nuclear warheads and it can strike deep into Europe.

[Yuli Ban]

The security guarantees that Russia seeks from the West include provisions requiring NATO forces to leave Romania and Bulgaria, the Russian foreign ministry said on Friday.

Moscow has demanded legally binding guarantees from NATO that the bloc will stop its expansion and return to its 1997 borders.

Replying to a question about what that would mean for Bulgaria and Romania, which joined NATO after 1997, the ministry said Russia wanted all foreign troops, weapons and other military hardware withdrawn from those countries.

[caltrek]

Hypocritical Scolding Will Not Stop a Russian War on the Ukraine
by Mitchell Zimmerman
January 19, 2022

https://otherwords.org/russia-is-wrong- ... rth-a-war/

Introduction:

(Other Words) As Moscow signals its apparent readiness for war over Ukraine, the U.S. government seems determined to ignore Russia’s not-so-ridiculous concerns over the military alliances of neighboring states and the prospect of nuclear weapons on its borders.

Should Americans worry about our country inserting itself into another war?

Conclusion:

It is not unreasonable for the Russians not to want a hostile alliance — and potentially nuclear weapons — along their border. But Russia’s key interests do not reasonably include dismembering Ukraine.

Meanwhile the U.S. is not crazy for wanting Ukraine to be free to connect economically and culturally with Western Europe. But it’s not a key interest, requiring a confrontation between nuclear-armed states, to insist that Ukraine has the “right” to join NATO.

Peace cannot be found if the U.S. relies on the self-righteous assertion of principles that our government refuses to apply to itself.

[Yuli Ban]

Russia announced on Thursday the deployment of over 140 combat and supply ships, over 50 aircraft, 1,000 pieces of military equipment, and 10,000 military servicemen.

The Russian Defense Ministry said the Russian Navy will have a series of exercises in all zones of responsibility from January to February, according to the Russian news agency TASS.

"In accordance with a plan for training the Russian armed forces in 2022 a series of naval exercises will be held in January-February in all zones of the fleets' responsibility under the general guidance of the commander-in-chief of the Russian Navy, Admiral Nikolay Yevmenov," the news release says, TASS reported.

"The exercises will encompass seas washing Russia and also World Ocean areas of key importance. There will be some exercises in the Mediterranean and Northern seas and the Sea of Okhotsk, in the Northeastern Atlantic and in the Pacific," the Defense Ministry said, according to TASS.

[weatheriscool]

US sends aircraft carrier group to Mediterranean as Russia threat looms
Source: The Hill

The U.S. military has sent the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier strike group to take part in a NATO naval exercise in the Mediterranean amid tensions between the West and Russia, the Pentagon's top spokesperson announced Friday.

Neptune Strike 22 exercises, which are set to begin Monday and run through Feb. 4, will "demonstrate NATO's ability to integrate the high-end maritime strike capabilities of an aircraft carrier strike group to support the deterrence and defense of the alliance," press secretary John Kirby told reporters.

He added that the strike group, along with several other NATO allies he did not name, "will participate in coordinated maritime maneuvers, anti-submarine warfare training, and long-range strike training."

Kirby insisted the war games had been "long-planned," since 2020, and were not in response to the recent Russian military buildup near the Ukrainian border, though the drills are not listed on NATO's website among exercises slated for this year.

Read more: https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-sends-air ... 27565.html

[wjfox]

US embassy in Ukraine ‘requests staff evacuation’ amid war fears

Sat 22 Jan 2022 15.16 GMT

The US embassy in Ukraine has requested the evacuation of all non-essential staff amid increasing fears of an imminent Russian invasion and the arrival overnight of arms deliveries promised by President Joe Biden, according to a CNN report.

US evacuations are likely to start “as early as next week”, the US cable news network said, citing a source close to the Ukrainian government. It marks the embassy’s shift in focus towards “helping Ukraine bolster its defences in the face of growing Russian aggression”.

The embassy in Kyiv also said on Twitter that the first batch of fresh US assistance had arrived in Ukraine, which includes weaponry described as “200,000 pounds of lethal aid, including ammunition for the frontline defenders of Ukraine”.

It follows Biden’s assertion on Wednesday in a White House address that he now expected the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, to “move in” and invade Ukraine, in an act that would mean large-scale war returning to continental Europe for the first time in a generation.

“My guess is he will move in,” Biden said in response to questions about whether an invasion was coming. “He has to do something.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... -war-fears

[wjfox]

[Yuli Ban]

Germany faced a diplomatic incident on Saturday following comments made by Navy chief Kay-Achim Schönbach on Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Ukraine crisis. Schönbach stepped down from his position late on Saturday.

"I have asked Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht to relieve me from my duties with immediate effect," Vice Admiral Kay-Achim Schoenbach said in a statement cited by the Reuters news agency.

"The minister has accepted my request," he added.

The move was prompted by a talk that Schönbach gave during a visit to India. Speaking at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, the German vice-admiral said Putin "probably" deserved respect.

"What he really wants is respect," the vice admiral said, speaking in English in remarks that were posted on a video on YouTube.

"And, my God, giving someone respect is low cost, even no cost. ... It is easy to give him the respect he really demands — and probably also deserves," Schönbach said, calling Russia an old and important country.

Schönbach said Russia's actions in Ukraine needed to be addressed, but added that "the Crimea Peninsula is gone: It will never come back — this is a fact."

[Yuli Ban]

A war in Ukraine could go nuclear! But not in the way you might think...

15 Reactors Would Be In War Zone

As Russia’s buildup on the Ukrainian border continues, few observers note that an invasion of Ukraine could put nuclear reactors on the front line of military conflict. The world is underestimating the risk that full-scale, no-holds-barred conventional warfare could spark a catastrophic reactor failure, causing an unprecedented regional nuclear emergency.

The threat is real. Ukraine is heavily dependent upon nuclear power, maintaining four nuclear power plants and stewardship of the shattered nuclear site at Chernobyl. In a major war, all 15 reactors at Ukraine’s nuclear power facilities would be at risk, but even a desultory Russian incursion into eastern Ukraine is likely to expose at least six active reactors to the uncertainty of a ground combat environment.

The world has little experience with reactors in a war zone. Since humanity first harnessed the atom, the world has only experienced two “major” accidents—Chernobyl and Japan’s Fukushima disaster. A Russian invasion, coupled with an extended conventional war throughout Ukraine, could generate multiple International Atomic Energy Agency “Level 7” accidents in a matter of days. Such a contingency would induce a massive refugee exodus and could render much of Ukraine uninhabitable for decades.

Turning the Ukraine into a dystopian landscape, pockmarked by radioactive exclusion zones, would be an extreme method to obtain the defensive zone Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to want.

As someone who feels this is going to be a bigger version of the Nagorno-Karabakh war, the potential for nuclear power plants to be struck is one I've never considered before. And it's definitely a dangerous one. No nukes would ever have to be launched for a quarter of Europe to be rendered uninhabitable.

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]

How a Russian-Ukraine conflict might hit global markets

A potential invasion of Ukraine by neighbouring Russia would be felt across a number of markets, from wheat and energy prices and the region's sovereign dollar bonds to safe have assets.

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]