Ukraine War Watch Thread

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]

Russian mercenaries have deployed to separatist-controlled eastern Ukraine in recent weeks to bolster defences against Ukrainian government forces as tensions between Moscow and the West rise, four sources have told Reuters.

In recent weeks, Russia has moved tens of thousands of regular troops to staging posts closer to Ukraine and followed up by demanding urgent security guarantees from the West designed, Moscow says, to prevent Ukraine and other neighbouring countries being used as a base to attack it.

The West and Ukraine have for their part accused Russia of weighing a fresh attack on its southern neighbour as soon as next month, something Moscow denies.

Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in 2014 and backed pro-Russian separatists who seized a swathe of the industrial Donbass region of eastern Ukraine that same year, and continue to fight Ukrainian government forces there.

[weatheriscool]

Putin threatens"retaliatory military-technical" measures as standoff with U.S. and NATO over Ukraine
Source: CBS News

Moscow — President Vladimir Putin used some of his most direct language to date on Tuesday in his escalating standoff with the U.S. and its European allies. The Russian leader warned that if the U.S. and NATO do not halt what Moscow considers aggressive actions along the country's border with Ukraine, Russia would respond in a "retaliatory military" manner.

"If the obviously aggressive line of our Western colleagues continues, we will take adequate, retaliatory military-technical measures [and] react toughly to unfriendly steps," Putin told senior military officials during a meeting in remarks carried by Russian state TV. "I want to emphasize that we have every right to do so."

Putin had previously spoken of his "red lines" on Ukraine — first and foremost his demand that the U.S. block Ukraine's bid to become a NATO member. He had accused the West of crossing his red lines already, but the stern warning in Tuesday's speech marked the first time he had personally warned of potential military action.

Read more: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukr ... -measures/

[weatheriscool]

Russia now has 265,000 troops near Ukraine border
Russian military vehicles assembled during a readiness check, January 13, 2020. (Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation/Released)
December 22, 2021 Ryan Morgan
https://americanmilitarynews.com/2021/1 ... dium=email

Russia now has about 265,000 troops stationed within 250 miles of its border with Ukraine, according to a new assessment of troop movements by Ukrainian Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov.

Danilov revealed the assessment of Russian military activity during a visit to the Ivano-Frankivsk region, the Ukrainian state-run National News Agency of Ukraine (also known as Ukrinform) reported on Wednesday.

Danilov said of the 265,000 Russian troops, 122,000 are located within 200 km (125 miles) of the Russian border with Ukraine. Another 143,500 troops are located between 200 and 400 km (250 miles) of the Ukrainian border.

[weatheriscool]

Biden talks sanctions, Putin warns of rupture over Ukraine
Source: AP

WILMINGTON, Del. (AP) — President Joe Biden has warned Russia's Vladimir Putiin that the U.S. could impose new sanctions against Russia if it takes further military action against Ukraine, while Putin responded that such a U.S. move could lead to a complete rupture of ties between the nations.

The two leaders spoke frankly for nearly an hour Thursday amid growing alarm over Russia's troop buildup near Ukraine, a crisis that has deepened as the Kremlin has stiffened its insistence on border security guarantees and test-fired hypersonic missiles to underscore its demands.

Further U.S. sanctions "would be a colossal mistake that would entail grave consequences,” said Putin's foreign affairs adviser Yuri Ushakov, who briefed reporters in Moscow after the Biden-Putin phone conversation. He added that Putin told Biden that Russia would act as the U.S. would if offensive weapons were deployed near American borders.

White House officials offered a far more muted post-call readout, suggesting the leaders agreed there are areas where the two sides can make meaningful progress but also differences that might be impossible to resolve.

Read more: https://thesouthern.com/news/national/g ... 90b85.html

[Yuli Ban]

Russia says it sees "no grounds" for continued talks with the U.S. and NATO as the alliance seeks to avert a second Moscow invasion of Ukraine.

Speaking on Russian television, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov reiterated that the U.S. and allies reject Moscow's main demand for NATO to pledge to deny membership to Ukraine and other former Soviet states, The Washington Post reported.

“There is, to a certain extent, a dead end or a difference in approaches,” Ryabkov said, according to the Post.

“I do not see reasons to sit down in the coming days, to gather again and start these same discussions” without flexibility from Washington, he added.

Ryabkov’s comments come at the conclusion of three days of diplomatic dialogue among the U.S., its European allies and Russia amid Moscow’s military posturing near Ukraine.

[Yuli Ban]

A senior Russian diplomat wouldn't rule out the possibility of his country placing military infrastructure in Cuba or Venezuela, as the Kremlin called two recent rounds of talks with the U.S. and NATO "unsuccessful." Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, who led negotiations with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman in Geneva this week, said Thursday that he didn't want "to confirm anything, [but] won't exclude anything here either," when asked whether Russia might consider establishing a military presence in America's backyard.

"It depends on the actions of American colleagues," Ryabkov said Thursday in an interview with the RTVI channel, adding that Russia could also undertake unspecified "measures" involving its navy.

It was a significant ratcheting up of the tension between the U.S. and Russia in a week that many hoped would put diplomacy front and center. The current standoff between Moscow and Washington has been casually framed as a contemporary echo of the Cold War for weeks, but Ryabkov's remarks were sure to resonate loudly in the ears of Americans either aware of or old enough to remember the Cuban missile crisis of 1962.

[Lurking]

A senior Russian diplomat wouldn't rule out the possibility of his country placing military infrastructure in Cuba or Venezuela, as the Kremlin called two recent rounds of talks with the U.S. and NATO "unsuccessful." Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, who led negotiations with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman in Geneva this week, said Thursday that he didn't want "to confirm anything, [but] won't exclude anything here either," when asked whether Russia might consider establishing a military presence in America's backyard.

"It depends on the actions of American colleagues," Ryabkov said Thursday in an interview with the RTVI channel, adding that Russia could also undertake unspecified "measures" involving its navy.

It was a significant ratcheting up of the tension between the U.S. and Russia in a week that many hoped would put diplomacy front and center. The current standoff between Moscow and Washington has been casually framed as a contemporary echo of the Cold War for weeks, but Ryabkov's remarks were sure to resonate loudly in the ears of Americans either aware of or old enough to remember the Cuban missile crisis of 1962.

North Korea

[wjfox]

Russia-Ukraine: US warns of 'false-flag' operation

Published
2 minutes ago

Russia is plotting to stage acts of provocation to create a pretext to invade Ukraine, a US official has said.

A Pentagon spokesman said Russian operatives were planning a "false-flag" operation, to allow Moscow to accuse Ukraine of preparing an attack. Russia has dismissed the claims.

It comes after a week of US-Russian talks aimed at defusing tensions.

Ukraine on Friday accused Russia of being behind a cyber-attack on dozens of official websites.

Before the sites went offline, a message appeared warning Ukrainians to "prepare for the worst". Access to most of the sites was restored within hours.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59998988

[raklian]

I think if Russia does actually invade Ukraine, knowing how Biden dealt with the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal and is now dealing with the Covid crisis at home, he won't order the US military to directly intervene to help Ukraine defend itself although it may make it more difficult for Russia in less overt ways. If the US-Russia talks fail with a subsequent invasion of Ukraine, the US and Europe's mission will be to make any plans Russia may have for a long-term occupation unfeasible, in the same way Russia made it difficult for the US to stay in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan.

[wjfox]

[Xyls]

The sad thing about all this is that Putin won't even achieve anything out of this other than killing off his young generation - as Russia gets dragged into a protracted guerrilla war - and accelerates the population decline in Eastern Europe as many Ukrainians and other Eastern European nations seek refuge in Western countries...

I'm not sure Ukrainian refugees will be received any better than those from other parts of the world and they may be received even worse as many of these countries are facing housing crisis' and huge inflation right now. Not to mention the vaxx rates in Ukraine are not high and I could easily see the lack of vaxx coverage in these refugees as potentially scapegoating them as carriers of disease (Not just talking about COVID, but also measles...) This will be destabilizing for Western countries.

The West on the other hand is likely going to be all too happy to bog Putin down into a grinder for his military forces just as Iraq became for the Americans. Blood is also still bad for Putin's actions in Syria as well...

[funkervogt]

I think if Russia does actually invade Ukraine, knowing how Biden dealt with the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal and is now dealing with the Covid crisis at home, he won't order the US military to directly intervene to help Ukraine defend itself although it may make it more difficult for Russia in less overt ways. If the US-Russia talks fail with a subsequent invasion of Ukraine, the US and Europe's mission will be to make any plans Russia may have for a long-term occupation unfeasible, in the same way Russia made it difficult for the US to stay in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan.

The collapse of Afghanistan has only emboldened Russia and China to probe America's resolve in their own spheres of influence. Fairly or not, Biden has made the U.S. look weak.

[weatheriscool]

White House: Russia prepping pretext for Ukraine invasion
Source: AP

By AAMER MADHANI, NOMAAN MERCHANT and VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. intelligence officials have determined a Russian effort is underway to create a pretext for its troops to further invade Ukraine, and Moscow has already prepositioned operatives to conduct “a false-flag operation” in eastern Ukraine, according to the White House.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said on Friday the intelligence findings show Russia is also laying the groundwork through a social media disinformation campaign that frames Ukraine as an aggressor that has been preparing an imminent attack against Russian-backed forces in eastern Ukraine.

Psaki charged that Russia has already dispatched operatives trained in urban warfare who could use explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia’s own proxy forces — blaming the acts on Ukraine — if Russian President Vladimir Putin decides he wants to move forward with an invasion.

“We are concerned that the Russian government is preparing for an invasion in Ukraine that may result in widespread human rights violations and war crimes should diplomacy fail to meet their objectives,” Psaki said.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/europe-russi ... 371cd80eb2

[andmar74]

Fairly or not, Biden has made the U.S. look weak.

He couldn't have stayed in Afghanistan. The US tried to train the Afghan army, but it failed.

[Xyls]

Fairly or not, Biden has made the U.S. look weak.

He couldn't have stayed in Afghanistan. The US tried to train the Afghan army, but it failed.

It wasn't about him staying in Afghanistan. It was about how the exit was handled...

[BaobabScion]

Fairly or not, Biden has made the U.S. look weak.

He couldn't have stayed in Afghanistan. The US tried to train the Afghan army, but it failed.

It wasn't about him staying in Afghanistan. It was about how the exit was handled...

It probably couldn't have been handled any better. It was going to be disastrous no matter who was presiding over it, considering how quickly and unexpectedly the Taliban took things over.

[Yuli Ban]

Russian-led militants in the occupied city of Horlivka in Donetsk Oblast in eastern Ukraine released toxic ammonia gas into the atmosphere on Jan. 14, according to a report published on Facebook by the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine.

The intelligence states that the release of chemicals could be part of a red-flag operation – a pretense for a further Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The incident comes amidst the backdrop of increasing Russian aggression against Ukraine and warnings of planned false-flag operations.

Russia has massed more than 100,000 troops along the border with Ukraine since November. The Washington Post estimated that as many as 175,000 combat personnel are poised to invade Ukraine in early 2022, citing U.S. intelligence documents.

The Defense Intelligence of Ukraine reported that Russian-backed militants had released chemicals imported into the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. The intelligence stated that the сontainers of ammonia gas on the site of the former Stirol (Styrene) factory have been depressurized, leading to gas leakage and posing a threat to the environment.

[weatheriscool]

Ukraine says Russia behind cyberattack in 'hybrid war' move
Source: AP

By YURAS KARMANAU

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukraine said Sunday that Russia was behind a cyberattack that defaced its government websites and alleged that Russia is engaged in an increasing “hybrid war” against its neighbor.

The statement from the Ministry of Digital Development came a day after Microsoft said dozens of computer systems at an unspecified number of Ukrainian government agencies had been infected with destructive malware disguised as ransomware. That disclosure suggested the attention-grabbing defacement attack on official websites last week was a diversion.

“All evidence indicates that Russia is behind the cyberattack. Moscow continues to wage a hybrid war and is actively building up its forces in the information and cyberspaces,” the ministry statement said.

The attack comes as the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine looms and diplomatic talks to resolve the tense standoff appear stalled.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/technology-r ... 7cc2149866

[Yuli Ban]

Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman said on Sunday that Russia began its military buildup along the Ukrainian border because it could no longer "tolerate" NATO's eastward expansion and "gradual invasion" of Ukraine.

Appearing on CNN's "Fareed Zakaria GPS," Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the stage for the current border crisis was set decades ago, in the '90s. Roughly 100,000 Russian soldiers have recently amassed near Ukraine, leading to concerns that Russia will invade its neighbor soon.

"When Germany was reunited and when the then-Soviet Union and the Soviet Union leader Mr. [Mikhail] Gorbachev said OK to that, there was a promise by American side," Peskov said on Sunday.

"Unfortunately, not fixed in a juridical, in a legally binding guaranteeing document, but it — there was a guarantee that NATO would never ... expand its military infrastructure or political infrastructure eastwards," he continued.

"Unfortunately, the opposite thing started to happen since then, and NATO's military infrastructure started to get closer and closer to the borders of the Russian Federation," he added, saying that recent actions by the U.S. military led Russia to feel that its national security was being "endangered."