Grassley will seek reelection, boosting GOP's majority hopes
Source: Politico
Iowa Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley announced on Twitter Friday morning he will run for an eighth term, a move that makes it more likely the GOP can keep control of his seat in next year's midterm elections.
Grassley romped to a seventh term in 2016 by 25 percentage points and will face former Democratic Rep. Abby Finkenauer in next year's general election.
Grassley turned 88 this month but Republican Party leaders have nonetheless pressed him to seek reelection amid their broader efforts to claim the Senate majority next year.
Biden's progressive agenda, including the protection of democracy itself, increasingly threatens to be obstructed by a coalition of Republicans and a couple of conservative Democrats in the Senate. Moreover, midterm elections can often favor the party out of power. So, the upcoming midterm elections will be very important. Democrats will need to buck the historical trend and actually pick up some Senate seats (and hold onto the House). Not an easy task, but achievable.
Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) announced Friday that he will not run for re-election in 2022.
Why it matters: Kinzinger is one of two Republicans to serve on the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol riot and is one of former President Trump's fiercest GOP critics.
(Common Dreams) Indivisible on Monday launched a national endorsement program "dedicated to protecting and expanding the number of progressives in public office," and began by formally backing seven candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives, including three current members.
"So much is at stake and these are the candidates who will help deliver real progressive change."
Exactly a year away from the 2022 midterm elections, the group endorsed Democratic Reps. Pramila Jayapal, who chairs the Congressional Progressive Caucus and represents Washington's 7th District; Ilhan Omar of Minnesota's 5th District; and Mondaire Jones of New York's 17th District.
The other four candidates are all also running as Democrats: Jessica Cisneros of Texas' 28th District; Odessa Kelly of Tennessee's 5th District; Kina Collins of Illinois' 7th District; and Melanie D'Arrigo of New York's 3rd District.
"Since our start, our grassroots network has shown that people power can and does influence policy and win elections," said Lucy Solomon, Indivisible's national political director, in a statement. "Primaries are the best opportunity to debate competing visions for our country, and we know they determine the future of our party."
"That's why we're continuing our endorsements program—because so much is at stake and these are the candidates who will help deliver real progressive change," she added.
(Common Dreams) Citing "unprecedented and coordinated" Republican efforts to undermine public trust in the U.S. electoral system, nearly 60 advocacy groups warned Monday of the need defend democracy ahead of the 2022 midterm elections—including by passing the Freedom to Vote Act.
"Our democracy faces an existential threat—the very real possibility that the outcome of an election could be ignored and the will of the people overturned by hyperpartisan actors," 58 groups including MoveOn.org, Protect Democracy, Public Citizen, SEIU, and the Sierra Club assert in an open letter.
"Since the 2020 election, we have seen unprecedented and coordinated efforts to cast doubt on the U.S. election system," the letter states.
"These efforts have taken many forms," the authors explain, including "widespread disinformation campaigns and baseless claims of election fraud,... intimidation of election officials and administrators just for doing their jobs, new state laws to make election administration more partisan and more susceptible to manipulation or sabotage, and outright violence."
Noting that "exaggerated and unsubstantiated fears about voter fraud have been a vote suppression tool for some time," the letter argues that "these efforts took on entirely new ferocity with the advent of former President [Donald] Trump's 'Big Lie' regarding the 2020 presidential election."
(The Intercept) SEN. PATRICK LEAHY, the longest serving Democrat in the Senate, held a press conference on Monday morning in the Vermont Statehouse, announcing that he will not seek reelection in 2022. Leahy stepping back opens up a new likely Democratic seat, raising the question of whether Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., will endorse the state’s lone congressional representative, Peter Welch, or allow an open primary to play out.
Welch, a Democrat, is known to be planning a run to replace Leahy if and when he retires. If Sanders endorses Welch, he functionally forecloses any challenge from the left. State Rep. Tanya Vyhovsky is also contemplating a run for Senate if Leahy steps down but told The Intercept she won’t do so if Sanders gets behind Welch. “I don’t want to lose any capacity I have [in the state legislature] in a race that’s unwinnable,” she said. “That is a big piece of this — if Bernie is going to endorse Peter there’s not much point doing it.”
Vyhovsky broadly shares Sanders’s politics and was endorsed by him the previous two cycles. Meanwhile, Welch and Sanders are much closer personally than they are politically. If Sanders does freeze the field by endorsing Welch, it would come out of personal loyalty rather than as a way to advance his political revolution. His penchant for such loyalty was on display during the presidential campaign, when he repeatedly resisted efforts by advisers to get him to go on the attack against Joe Biden. “Joe is a friend,” he would often say.
Leahy remains popular in Vermont as well. Asked by The Intercept if he planned to endorse a candidate or allow a race to play out, Leahy said recently that he wasn’t ready to make a public statement either way. Sanders, historically, has taken large amounts of time to make endorsements; Vermont political observers and those around Sanders are unsure if he’ll endorse Welch. (A Sanders spokesperson declined to comment.)
Leahy gives emotional speech in Senate on retirement plans
Source: AP
WASHINGTON (AP) — A day after announcing he will not seek reelection, Democratic Sen. Patrick Leahy of Vermont told his colleagues in an emotional speech on the Senate floor on Tuesday that they have become like family to him over the last nearly 47 years.
The 81-year-old Leahy, who as the Senate’s president pro tempore is third in line to the presidency, said that he’s been honored to fight for Vermont and that he did not make the decision to retire lightly.
“Here’s the thing about the Senate. Here’s where small states like Vermont have not just a seat at the table but a voice at the table,” he said, noting that Vermont had championed farm-to-school programs and revitalization of historic downtowns, ideas that gained traction nationally.
He thanked his staff and his family, particularly his wife, Marcelle.
(NBC) Sean Parnell, a candidate for the Senate in Pennsylvania who has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump, suspended his campaign after a judge ruled Monday in favor of his estranged wife in a court fight over custody of their three children.
His estranged wife, Laurie Snell, had testified about abuse she said she and occasionally their children endured from him.
"I strongly disagree with the ruling today and I'm devastated by the decision," Parnell said in a statement, adding, "There is nothing more important to me than my children, and while I plan to ask the court to reconsider, I can't continue with a Senate campaign."
A Butler County judge wrote in a docket entry Monday that Snell would have sole legal custody and primary physical custody of the couple's three children; Parnell was granted physical custody three weekends a month, The Associated Press reported.
Parnell forcefully denied Snell's allegations of abuse under oath, but the judge, James Arner, wrote that she was "the more credible witness," The AP reported. She testified that Parnell once choked her to the point that she had to bite him to break free and that he had once slapped one of their three children hard enough on the back to leave marks.
(Politico) (Lucas) Kunce is a Democrat, yes, but he prefers to call himself a populist, and he’s hoping a campaign against “big corporations and corrupt politicians,” on behalf of American workers hurt by globalization and monopoly power, will have enough appeal across partisan and racial divides to put him over the top. Nine months ahead of the 2022 primary, he has attracted national attention and cable-news spots for his blistering critiques of the war in Afghanistan, where he deployed twice — Kabul’s collapse, he says, was inevitable; U.S. elites lied about the war for 20 years; and defense contractors got rich while communities like his hometown decayed. Last quarter, Kunce outraised all his opponents in the race, Republicans included. And no matter if the issue is war in the Middle East, agriculture in the Midwest or pretty much anything else, his appeal to unity is this: Whether you’re a Democrat or a Republican, you’re all getting screwed.
…
Even though Republican pollsters recently found Kunce losing, 40 percent to 47 percent, against the current GOP frontrunner, former Gov. Eric Greitens, Kunce finds that margin encouraging enough this early in the race, when many Missourians don’t even know who he is; his chief rival in the Democratic primary, the experienced former state Sen. Scott Sifton, loses to Greitens in the poll by a similar amount and faces similar name-recognition challenges, but he trails far behind Kunce in fundraising. Lots of people know Greitens, who resigned to avoid impeachment in a 2018 scandal involving an allegedly coerced sexual encounter with his hairdresser plus alleged campaign-finance shenanigans; he denies any wrongdoing, and struck a deal with the prosecutor to drop criminal charges at the time. Still, the prospect of a Greitens primary nomination has national Republicans anxious and national Democrats enthused. Incredibly for a Trump country seat currently held by a Republican, retiring Sen. Roy Blunt, and in a midterm year in which Democrats are expected to do badly, CNN has put the Missouri race on its list of the top 10 seats most likely to flip in 2022, though the Cook Political Report considers the seat solidly Republican, as do Missouri pollsters
Dr. Oz announces bid for US Senate seat in Pennsylvania
Source: CNN
(CNN)Dr. Mehmet Oz, a cardiothoracic surgeon and television personality, is running for the US Senate in Pennsylvania as a Republican, according to an op-ed published Tuesday in the conservative Washington Examiner. "During the pandemic, I learned that when you mix politics and medicine, you get politics instead of solutions. That's why I am running for the U.S. Senate: to help fix the problems and to help us heal," Oz wrote.
The 61-year-old Oz will join a Republican primary field that already includes Philadelphia-area businessman (and 2018 lieutenant governor nominee) Jeff Bartos and Carla Sands, who served as US ambassador to Denmark in the Trump administration. Another potential Republican candidate is David McCormick, a former official in the Treasury Department under President George W. Bush.
The race in Pennsylvania to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Pat Toomey has been shaken up in recent weeks, primarily by the departure of GOP candidate Sean Parnell, who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump. "Pennsylvania needs a conservative who will put America first," Oz said in a 60-second video on his campaign website.
Oz is an Ohio native who attended medical school at the University of Pennsylvania. He rose to fame as a frequent guest of Oprah Winfrey, eventually launching his own syndicated daytime TV talk show in 2009. Representatives for Oz did not return CNN's request for comment.
(Politico) I asked Matthew Eisenberg, an expert on health economics and policy, at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, to review Oz’s testimony (at a 2014 Senate hearing). He said that Oz's rhetorical sleights-of-hand — disclaiming "magical" while defending "it's going to be magic" — are a common feature of deceptive advertising in the weight-loss industry. And despite Oz's careful parsing of claims like that, several of his hearing statements ran afoul of both scientific and regulatory consensus, said Eisenberg. In his written testimony, says Eisenberg, Oz clearly violated the Federal Trade Commission’s guidance to dietary supplement companies when he referred to a pill’s ability to “melt” fat.
“The scientific consensus is that pills cannot do that, and the regulatory consensus is [the same],” said Eisenberg. “The FTC has said no product can say in their advertisement that a product burns or melts fat.”
Neither the FTC’s recommendations nor Congress’ scorn has done much to deter Oz, whose lucrative empire has thrived despite being repeatedly condemned in mainstream medical circles for making unsupported claims about diet and weight-loss products. In 2013, a team of researchers at Georgetown University analyzed the various health recommendations made on Oz’s show, finding that about 78 percent of those recommendations “did not align with evidence-based medical guidelines, society recommendations, or authority statements.” In 2018, without admitting liability, Oz agreed to pay a $5.25 million settlement in a class-action lawsuit alleging that he misrepresented the efficacy of two weight-loss pills, which he had referred to on his show as a “revolutionary fat buster” and “magic weight-loss cure.”
(Axios) In her first major interview since Stacey Abrams entered the governor's race, campaign manager Lauren Groh-Wargo sums up to Axios the "organizing principle" behind her boss' second bid for Georgia's highest office:
People are in historic pain through this pandemic that has driven and furthered racial and income inequality in our state."
Why it matters: More than three years after she narrowly lost to incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp, Abrams' second run at the seat will happen in a vastly different environment.
She has national name recognition and new fundraising prowess, while Kemp is an incumbent governor who also faces an unprecedented intra-party Republican battle brewing with former Sen. David Perdue.
Groh-Wargo said the Abrams campaign will continue its 2018 strategy of building a diverse coalition of white voters and voters of color.
(Axios) Vulnerable House Democrats are convinced they need to talk less about the man who helped them get elected: President Trump.
Why it matters: Democrats are privately concerned nationalizing the 2022 mid-terms with emotionally-charged issues — from Critical Race Theory to Donald Trump's role in the Jan. 6 insurrection — will hamstring their ability to sell the local benefits of President Biden's Build Back Better agenda.
The push by centrist lawmakers, especially from the suburbs, to keep the conversation away from Trump is frequently derailed by the party's loudest voices — and their insistence to talk about him at every turn.
“People don't want to hear about Donald Trump,” Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.), told Axios. "They're going to vote because they want to see people get sh-t done.”
"All politics is local," Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-Ga.) tweeted last week. "Whether it's advocating for the equitable redevelopment of Gwinnett Place Mall, or securing funding for our local trailway system, every day I am working in Congress for our community."
(Mother Jones) Months after Texas Republicans approved gerrymandered redistricting maps that diluted the voting power of communities of color, the Justice Department is suing the state for violating the Voting Rights Act.
As my colleague Ari Berman wrote, Texas’ new election maps increase the number of districts with white majorities—even though 95 percent of the state’s population growth in the last decade has come from communities of color.
This gerrymandering is a brazen attempt to cement Republican dominance in the state despite demographic change:
The maps consolidate white power as the white population is shrinking as a percentage of the state, and eliminate political competition at a time when longtime GOP strongholds are trending blue. The number of safe GOP seats would double in the new congressional maps, from 11 to 22, and the number of competitive districts would fall from 12 to just one. GOP candidates for Congress received 53 percent of the statewide vote in 2020, but are forecasted to control 65 percent of US House seats under the new map.
The suit came after the gutting of the Voting Rights Act by the Supreme Court in 2013. For the first time in nearly 50 years, the federal government did not have to approve the redistricting maps before they went into effect. The only option for Justice Department was to sue, using the parts of the VRA left intact.
caltrek's comment: This development has implications that go beyond the 2022 election. Through the Electoral College system, red states have shown an advantage in close presidential elections, even when they lost the popular vote. Extreme gerrymandering is a process by which Republicans have gained an advantage in winning the House of Representatives. Combined with voter suppression tactics, this all does not bode well for the one-person one-vote form of democracy.
Abbott leads O'Rourke by 15 points in early poll of Texas governor's race
Source: The Hill
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has a 15-point edge over his main Democratic rival, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas), according to a new Quinnipiac University poll, a staggering lead that underscores the challenges ahead for Democrats in the state next year.
In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Abbott leads O’Rourke 52 percent to 37 percent. He also has stronger support among voters from his own party. Ninety percent of Republicans say they back Abbott, while 87 percent of Democrats support O’Rourke in the race.
Democrats are facing historical headwinds nationally in 2022, given that midterm elections are typically seen as referendums on the party in power in Washington. But the Quinnipiac poll also showed O’Rourke’s favorability underwater among Texas voters. Thirty-six percent say they have a favorable opinion of the former congressman compared to 47 percent who have an unfavorable opinion of him. Another 16 percent say they have not heard enough about him.
Abbott’s approval rating has also seen a recovery in recent months. Fifty-three percent of voters say they approve of his job performance while 41 percent disapprove. That’s a marked improvement from September when his approval rating was underwater, 44 percent to 47 percent, according to Quinnipiac polling. By comparison, 52 percent of voters say they have a favorable view of Abbott, while 42 percent report an unfavorable opinion of the incumbent governor.
Congressman Alan Lowenthal Announces He Will Not Seek Reelection To Congress In 2022
Source: Office of Congressman Alan Lowenthal
Congressman Alan Lowenthal (CA-47) today issued the following statement to his constituents:
“Almost 30 years ago to the day, I made the decision to run for the Long Beach City Council because I felt that my councilmember didn’t listen to me or my neighbors. Every day since, over three decades of public service, I have recommitted myself to listening to you, to serving your interests, and doing my best for you.
This journey has taken me from Long Beach City Hall, to the California State Capitol, and to our nation’s capital. During my time as a public servant, I have met some of the most incredible people, received the counsel of wise leaders, and had the honor of working with some of the most dedicated public servants.
However, throughout this journey, sharing moments with the people I serve have always been some of the high points of my career. I have been deeply touched by your support over so many years just as I am deeply honored by the trust and faith you have placed in me to represent you.
My first experience in politics was as a teenager working on the campaign of Adlai Stevenson. I have often reflected on him saying that the job of a public servant is to “do justly” and “to walk humbly.” I have tried to live up to this throughout my journey.
But just as every journey has a beginning, so too does it have an end.
I am announcing today that I will not be running for reelection to Congress in 2022.
It is time to pass the baton. It is time to rest and surround myself with the benefits of a life well lived and earned honorably in the service of my fellow citizens.
During this journey, I have had the pleasure of raising two fine sons who have blessed me with four grandchildren who I adore. I now look forward to spending my time with them and watching them grow and flourish into wonderful people like their parents.
It is also a chance for me and my wife, Debbie, who has been my rock throughout this journey and who has been by my side despite her own sacrifices, to even more deeply enjoy our lives together.
But this is not the end. I will be your champion in Washington for another year, and I am determined to make the most of that time. After that, there are certainly other pages left to write in my life and other challenges I would like to take on beyond the halls of government.
As Robert Frost wrote, there are miles to go before I sleep.
I believe deeply in the innate goodness of our nation and our people. I have seen us live up to that potential so many times, and in doing so, move our nation and the world forward. But progress must be earned. It remains up to each of us to continue that struggle.
While I am stepping aside from the front lines of that struggle, I will continue to be at your side, fighting for what is right, for what is just, and for what makes us better as both a people and a nation.
It has been a distinct honor and a true privilege to serve you and all of the people of Los Angeles and Orange counties in the 47th District during my time in Congress.”
(Common Dreams) A detailed analysis published Thursday shines further light on the Republican Party's sprawling assault on voting rights and the democratic process nationwide, an effort that includes legislation that would "politicize, criminalize, and interfere" with elections.
Compiled by the States United Democracy Center, Protect Democracy, and Law Forward, the new report identifies at least 262 bills in 41 states that—if enacted—would "interfere with election administration." More than 30 such measures have become law in 17 Republican-led states.
But the report makes clear that the intensifying Republican attack on democracy reaches far beyond the legislative process. "The nature of the threat," the authors warn, "has metastasized beyond proposing or passing bills."
"As we look toward 2022, we anticipate the anti-democratic strategy will consist of four key pillars: (i) changing the rules to make it easier to undermine the will of the voters; (ii) changing the people who defend our democratic system by sidelining, replacing, or attacking professional election officials; (iii) promoting controversial constitutional theories about our elections to justify partisan takeovers; and (iv) eroding public confidence and trust in elections," the analysis notes. "These four pillars are the foundation for election sabotage, contrary to the will of the voters."
Joanna Lydgate, CEO of the States United Democracy Center—a nonpartisan organization—said Thursday that "we're seeing an effort to hijack elections in this country, and ultimately, to take power away from the American people."
Cook Report projects GOP as clear favorite to win House majority
Source: The Hill
Ratings released by The Cook Political Report on Thursday show the GOP with a clear edge in the 2022 battle for control of the House. The new batch of ratings from the nonpartisan election handicapper shows Democrats defending eight so-called toss-up districts across seven states. By comparison, Republicans are defending six toss-up seats in four states at this point.
At the same time, three Democratic-held districts — Arizona’s 6th, New Jersey’s 7th and Texas’s 15th — have landed in The Cook Political Report’s “lean Republican” column. Two more — Arizona’s 2nd District and Michigan’s 10th District — are in the “likely Republican” column.
Only one Republican-held district, Illinois’s 13th, currently leans toward Democrats, according to the latest ratings.
Republicans need to net just five seats in 2022 to recapture control of the lower chamber, a goal that appears well within reach, especially given the fact that the party of a new president tends to lose ground in Congress in midterm election years.
Longtime US Rep. Bobby Rush of Illinois Won't Seek 16th Term
Source: Associated Press
Longtime U.S. Rep. Bobby Rush of Illinois, a onetime Black Panther with a dramatic rise in Illinois politics, won't seek reelection after 15 terms representing his Chicago-area district, according to a prepared video announcement obtained Monday by The Associated Press.
(Cook Political Report) The surprising good news for Democrats: on the current trajectory, there will be a few more Biden-won districts after redistricting than there are now — producing a congressional map slightly less biased in the GOP's favor than the last decade's. The bad news for Democrats: if President Biden's approval ratings are still mired in the low-to-mid 40s in November, that won't be enough to save their razor-thin House majority (currently 221 to 212 seats).
The start of 2022 is an ideal time to take stock of the nation's cartographic makeover. New district lines are either complete or are awaiting certification in 34 states totaling 293 seats — more than two-thirds of the House (this includes the six states with only one seat).
A Cook Political Report with Amy Walter analysis finds that in the completed states, Biden would have carried 161 of 293 districts over Donald Trump in 2020, an uptick from 157 of 292 districts in those states under the current lines (nationwide, Biden carried 224 of 435 seats). And if Democrats were to aggressively gerrymander New York or courts strike down GOP-drawn maps in North Carolina and/or Ohio, the outlook would get even better for Democrats.
However, the partisan distribution of seats before/after redistricting is only one way to gauge the process. Because Democrats currently possess the lion's share of marginal seats, estimating the practical effect of new lines in 2022 still points towards a wash or a slight GOP gain.
As we've written all cycle, redistricting was never going to be the GOP bonanza depicted in some sky-is-falling narratives on the left. Yes, Republicans wield the authority to redraw 187 seats compared to 75 for Democrats. But that's less lopsided than in 2011, when Republicans had nearly a five-to-one advantage. And many GOP-controlled states are already gerrymandered, limiting Republicans' ability to wring them for additional gains.
