Ukraine War Watch Thread

[Yuli Ban]

The Biden administration is weighing sending military advisers and new equipment including weaponry to Ukraine as Russia builds up forces near the border and US officials prepare allies for the possibility of another Russian invasion, multiple sources familiar with the deliberations tell CNN.

The discussions about the proposed lethal aid package are happening as Ukraine has begun to warn publicly that an invasion could happen as soon as January. The package could include new Javelin anti-tank and anti-armor missiles as well as mortars, the sources said.
Air defense systems, such as stinger missiles, are also under consideration, and the Defense Department has been pressing for some equipment that would have gone to Afghanistan -- like Mi-17 helicopters -- to instead be sent to Ukraine. The Mi-17 is a Russian helicopter that the US originally purchased to give to the Afghans. The Pentagon is now weighing what to do with them after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in August.
But others in the administration are concerned that sending stingers and helicopters could be seen by Russia as a major escalation. And while they are prepared to send some military advisers into the region, it is unclear whether any would go into Ukraine itself, the people said.
Retired Lt. Col. Cedric Leighton told CNN that Javelin antitank missiles "are quite effective against the T-80 tanks which the Russians are actually employing in these efforts against Ukraine right now." But he noted that any additional assistance to Ukraine undoubtedly risks "further heightening tensions" with Moscow.

[Yuli Ban]

Russia’s financial markets sank in trading Monday as fears of a possible military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine weighed on investors' minds.

Talk of a possible military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has escalated in recent days, with Bloomberg reporting that U.S. intelligence has warned European allies a Russian invasion “on a scale far greater than seven years ago” could be “imminent.”

The RTS Index — Russia’s main stock market, denominated in U.S. dollars — was down 4% by Monday afternoon, wiping billions off the valuations of Russia’s top companies.

Banks were among the biggest fallers — seen as vulnerable to a devaluation in the ruble or introduction of new sanctions against Russia’s financial markets — along with energy giant Gazprom.

The Russian ruble lost 1.1% against the U.S. dollar, trading at 74.4 — its lowest since August. The currency was down by a similar amount against the euro.

Traders are also mulling the potential for a new round of sanctions against Russia. Over the weekend, the chair of the powerful U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee proposed a legislative amendment that could see strict new financial sanctions levied against Moscow.

The declines wiped out three months of gains that had seen Russian stocks trading at all-time highs.

[Yuli Ban]

Ukraine airborne troops hold drill amid growing border tensions

Ukraine, alarmed by a build-up of Russian troops near its borders, has held another military drill of airborne forces close to the capital Kyiv, the defence ministry said on Monday.

The drills simulated the landing of airborne troops and armoured personnel carriers for an attack on an enemy target, the ministry said in a statement. It released footage showing the landing of troops, supported by aircraft and helicopters.

Last week, Ukrainian marines conducted drills near the borders of Russian-annexed Crimea. read more

The head of Ukraine's military intelligence told the Military Times outlet this weekend that Russia had more than 92,000 troops amassed around Ukraine's borders and was preparing for an attack by the end of January or beginning of February.

[Yuli Ban]

In Russia-Ukraine faceoff, both sides stage combat drills

Russia staged military drills in the Black Sea, south of Ukraine, on Wednesday and said it needed to sharpen the combat-readiness of its conventional and nuclear forces because of heightened NATO activity near its borders.

[Yuli Ban]

The Ukrainian troops have fired American-made Javelin anti-tank missiles against Russian-backed forces in the country's eastern border of Donbass, amid threats of another Russian invasion.

Ukraine's top military intelligence agency has confirmed the use of the powerful missile for the first time, reports Military Times, quoting Ukrainian Brigadier General Kyrylo Budanov.

According to Budanov, the Javelin systems have also been used against Russian forces and have a "significant psychological deterrent value making Russians think twice about attacking."

The Javelin is a very capable man-portable guided anti-tank missile that can either be fired straight at a target or via a pop-up maneuver, after which it dives down onto the target, according to The Drive.

The missile's pop-up maneuverability makes it very valuable for engaging tanks and other armored vehicles with limited armor protection on top. It also has a reusable Command Launch Unit, a thermal imaging system with 12x magnification, which gives it a secondary surveillance capability. Javelins also have a limited ability to engage low-flying helicopters, the report added.

Javelin also has a demonstrated ability to hit targets up to nearly three miles away, which helps engage threats on the other side of the line of contact.

[Yuli Ban]

All options are on the table in how to respond to Russia's "large and unusual" troop buildup near Ukraine's border, and the NATO alliance will decide on the next move following consultations next week, the State Department's top U.S. diplomat for European affairs said on Friday.

[Yuli Ban]

Take it with a grain of salt...

[Yuli Ban]

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Thursday accused the US and NATO of risking a "nightmare scenario of military confrontation" in Europe, warning the alliance against expanding military infrastructure in Ukraine.

"The alliance's military infrastructure is being irresponsibly brought closer to Russia's borders in Romania and Poland, deploying an anti-missile defence system that can be used as a strike complex," Lavrov said in remarks at a conference of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), per BBC News.

The top Russian diplomat's comments came amid fears that Moscow is planning an invasion of Ukraine. Tens of thousands of Russian troops have gathered along Ukraine's border.

[Yuli Ban]

It is by now a familiar pattern: Russian troops mass near the Ukrainian border, triggering ratcheting rhetoric and jitters across Europe and the United States that war might be imminent, before a flurry of diplomacy calms nerves.

Officials and experts say that this time is different — and there are several clues giving them genuine concern that the current gambit by Russian President Vladimir Putin might be for real, and the start of a conflict that could drag in Europe and even the U.S. itself.

Putin has deployed more than 90,000 troops along Russia’s border with Ukraine, matching the force that he sent and withdrew in the spring. But whereas those troops maneuvered in open daylight, now they have mostly been far less showy, moving under the cover of darkness.

[Yuli Ban]

Canada, the United States and Britain should jointly and swiftly provide military support to Ukraine in its standoff with Russia, Ukraine’s Defence Minister says, warning that steps to deter Russian President Vladimir Putin from invading were necessary now because “it will be too late after.”

Oleksii Reznikov said in an interview that he detected a split within the NATO military alliance over how far to go in supporting Ukraine. Canada, the U.S., and Britain were more willing to challenge Mr. Putin’s aggressive behaviour, he said, while countries such as Germany and France were hesitant because they were concerned about maintaining their economic relationships with Russia.

Mr. Reznikov, who was appointed Defence Minister last month by President Volodymyr Zelensky, called on “the Anglo-Saxon allies” to act outside the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, if necessary, in providing weapons and other support to Ukraine’s military.

He said Ukraine’s land forces were battle-ready, but that the country needed to immediately upgrade its air defence, naval, and electronic warfare capabilities in the face of the threat posed by the Russian military force amassed near Ukraine’s borders.

[Yuli Ban]

The US has said it would send reinforcements to Nato’s eastern flank in response to a Russian invasion of Ukraine, as well as imposing severe new economic measures, in a warning to Moscow on the eve of talks between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin.

Biden will also make clear to Putin on Tuesday that the US will not rule out future Ukrainian membership of Nato, as the Russian leader has demanded, a senior US official said.

On Monday, Biden spoke to European leaders in preparation for the Putin summit. Afterwards, Boris Johnson said that they had agreed to present a “united front” on Ukraine.

US secretary of state Antony Blinken on Monday spoke to Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and reiterated Washington’s “unwavering support” in the face of “Russian aggression,” the US state department said.

[Yuli Ban]

Daily Heil alert

Ukraine has warned of a 'bloody massacre' and five million Ukrainian refugees fleeing into Europe if Russia decides to invade Kiev.

The warning comes as the Kremlin today said escalating tensions in Europe are 'off the scale' ahead of crunch talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden.

Kiev today accused Russia of deploying tanks and additional sniper teams near the Ukrainian border amid warnings Moscow could invade in weeks.

Satellite images have revealed huge new camps of Russian troops, tanks and artillery along the border as Putin continues massing his forces on Europe's doorstep.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov told CNN there would be a 'really bloody massacre' if Russia invaded Ukraine and warned that 'Russian guys also will come back in coffins'.

Biden and Putin are expected to hold a key video conference today amid fears over the build-up of troops in Ukraine.

[Yuli Ban]

As reports of Russian military buildups on the Ukrainian border intensify, there has been no letup in the low-level war between Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed separatists in the Donbas region. In the trenches near Horlivka, 570 kilometers southeast of Kyiv, a Ukrainian soldier told RFE/RL "you can expect anything." He was speaking on December 4, two days after his 22-year-old comrade was killed by a sniper.

Right back to March 2021. I'll believe it when I see it.

[Yuli Ban]

[Xyls]

More incompetence from the Biden administration. You should never reveal what lines you will or will not cross...

If Ukraine gets invaded a Belarusian annexation won't be far off either. Poland might want to be exploring nuclear weapons for itself right about now...

[Yuli Ban]

A full Russian invasion of Ukraine would be on a scale "not seen in Europe since World War Two", the new head of the armed forces has warned.

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin described as "deeply worrying" an escalating crisis over Ukraine - where a build-up of tens of thousands of Russian troops has raised Western fears of a new armed incursion, almost eight years on from Russia's annexation of Crimea.

The comments came as Ukraine's foreign minister told Sky News, "there would be a lot of dead Russian soldiers" if President Vladimir Putin decided to invade.

Ukrainian soldiers walk at the line of separation from pro-Russian rebels near Katerinivka, Donetsk

[Yuli Ban]

A top Ukrainian general is warning that the country's armed forces are not strong enough to fight back against a potential Russian invasion, The New York Times reported on Thursday.

With just under 100,000 Russian troops massed at various points along the Ukrainian border and more troops moving into these areas, Ukraine's military leadership is saying that they would need more resources to defend the country from a Russia invasion, the report said.

"Unfortunately, Ukraine needs to be objective at this stage," Gen. Kyrylo O. Budanov, the head of Ukraine's military intelligence service, told the Times. "There are not sufficient military resources for repelling a full-scale attack by Russia if it begins without the support of" additional forces, including Western forces.

[Yuli Ban]

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been hardening his rhetoric over the situation in Ukraine, saying the war in the country's east looks like genocide.

Russian-backed rebels have been fighting Ukrainian troops there since 2014, and tensions have been growing as Russia amasses troops on the border.

Meanwhile US President Joe Biden discussed recent talks with Mr Putin in a call to his Ukrainian counterpart.

There are fears that Russia is planning to invade Ukraine, which Russia denies.

Tuesday's Biden-Putin video call was seen as an attempt to ease tensions.

Washington and its allies have warned the Kremlin of tough sanctions if it again attacks its neighbour.

Russia has accused Ukraine of provocation, and sought guarantees against eastward Nato expansion and deployment of weapons close to Russia.

Ukrainian authorities have said Moscow could be planning a military offensive at the end of January, although US officials say it is not yet clear whether President Putin has made a decision.

He might actually do it

[erowind]

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[Lurking]

Unlike Belarus and Ukraine Poland is part of the EU and undeniably not Russian culturally. I doubt Russia would invade Poland it would mean a peer war with Germany, France and likely America.

That could change by 2028 or even 2024; Hungary and China should not be forgotten either.