4th February 2015 One in two people in the UK will get cancer, New research has predicted one in two people in the UK will develop cancer at some point in their lives – according to the most accurate forecast to date from Queen Mary University of London and Cancer Research UK.
With today marking World Cancer Day, a new study published in the British Journal of Cancer highlights the urgent need to bolster public health and cancer services, to cope with a growing and ageing population and the looming demands for better diagnostics, treatments, and earlier diagnosis. Prevention must also play an important role in the concerted effort required to reduce the impact of the disease in coming decades. The UK’s cancer survival has doubled over the last 40 years and around half of patients now survive the disease for more than 10 years. But, as more people benefit from improved healthcare and longer life expectancy, the number of cancer cases is expected to rise. This new research estimating the lifetime risk finds that, from now on, one in two people will be diagnosed with the disease. This new estimate replaces the previous figure, calculated using a different method, which predicted that more than one in three people would develop cancer at some point in their lives. Age is the biggest risk factor for most cancers, and the increase in lifetime risk is primarily because more people are surviving into old age, when cancer is more common.
Professor Peter Sasieni, who led the study at Queen Mary University of London, comments: “Cancer is primarily a disease of old age, with more than 60% of all cases diagnosed in people aged over 65. If people live long enough then most will get cancer at some point. But there’s a lot we can do to make it less likely – like giving up smoking, being more active, drinking less alcohol and maintaining a healthy weight. If we want to reduce the risk of developing the disease we must redouble our efforts and take action now to better prevent the disease for future generations.” Harpal Kumar, Cancer Research UK’s chief executive, says: “We’re living longer and that means we’re more likely to develop a range of age-related health issues. We need to plan ahead to make sure the NHS is fit to cope. If the NHS doesn’t act and invest now, we will face a crisis in the future – with outcomes from cancer going backwards. But NHS investment isn’t the only answer. We need a concerted approach and a broader sense of how we can save lives and money by preventing more cancers. Growing older is the biggest risk factor for most cancers – and it’s something we can’t avoid. But more than four in ten cancers diagnosed each year in the UK could be prevented by changes in lifestyle – that’s something we can all aim for personally so we can stack the odds in our favour.” Dr Emma King, Cancer Research UK head and neck surgeon: “We’re seeing more patients than ever before and the numbers are increasing year on year. But the resources for treating these people have stayed the same. If we’re going to give them the best possible chance of beating the disease then we’ll need greater investment and support now and in the future. Preventing more cancers and diagnosing the disease as early as possible, when treatment is more likely to be effective, could have a significant impact on survival. We also need the infrastructure to better tailor treatments to patients based on the molecular makeup underpinning their individual cancers.” In a separate study, University College London has predicted that on current trends, by 2050, cancer will rarely kill anyone under the age of 80, due to ongoing advances in preventing and treating the disease. At present, a low dose of aspirin taken daily may be the single most effective action to protect against cancer for those aged between 50 and 65, according to UCL.
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