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2021-2025 Manned exploration of near-Earth asteroids Despite recent budget cuts, NASA has made significant progress, not only in re-establishing human spaceflight, but actually going beyond Earth and sending astronauts deeper into space. After the Constellation Program was cancelled in 2010, many claimed that manned exploration of space would be placed on the backburner. In fact, this was simply untrue. New space vehicles were being developed with the specific aim of returning to the Moon and studying asteroids, before eventually going to Mars.
In 2014, a first unmanned test of the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle took place, reaching a higher altitude than any craft intended for human use since 1973.* This was followed by the Space Launch System (SLS) in 2017,* intended to carry Orion. Future upgrades of the SLS would allow even larger versions, with a 130-ton payload making it the biggest rocket ever built. The first manned outpost beyond the Moon began construction in 2019. This "Gateway Spacecraft", placed at Earth-Moon Lagrange Point 2 (L2), would function as a stepping stone for journeys to more remote destinations.* In 2021, a first manned test of the SLS is conducted. In this same year, a crewed asteroid mission takes place. Using a robotic probe, NASA captures a small rock, which is dragged into a stable orbit around the Moon.* Astronauts are then sent to explore it, travelling on-board the SLS, before moving in closer with the Orion, followed by a smaller craft known as the Space Exploration Vehicle (SEV). The success of this first expedition leads to further asteroid missions in subsequent years.* Experience is gained in finding ways to deflect potentially harmful rocks that may threaten Earth. On-site examination also provides new insights into the economic value of these space rocks and the resources they contain – adding to the knowledge from private ventures like Planetary Resources and Deep Space Industries. Perhaps more importantly, technologies can be tested, alongside training of processes, for later use in Mars missions during the 2030s.
2021 Global average temperatures have risen by 1°C Temperatures on both land and sea have continued to rise, due to increasing CO2 levels. By the early 2020s they are 1°C (1.8°F) higher relative to 1961-1990.* This is merely the global average, however – many inland areas are subjected to larger fluctuations. Great Plains in the USA is one such region. Kansas, Nebraska and other nearby states are now experiencing "dustbowl" conditions even worse than those seen in the 1930s.*
This is having a considerable impact on agriculture and the economy, exacerbating the damage caused by higher fuel prices. Some of the larger dust storms are alarming in their scale and severity. Topsoil, eroded and carried east by strong continental winds, is reaching as far as Chicago on occasions. In Africa, the last remaining snow has disappeared from Mount Kilimanjaro, leaving the entire continent ice-free for the first time in 11,000 years. In Asia, Bangladesh is now affected by torrential flooding and storm surges on a regular basis. The country is particularly vulnerable to sea levels. Within a few years it will experience a refugee crisis unparalleled in its history.* The Arctic has seen the biggest temperature increase of all. By the middle of this decade, it will change from a carbon sink to a carbon source, eventually releasing more than 100 gigatons of CO2.* Meanwhile, chronic water shortages are being experienced in the southwestern states of the USA.
Water crisis in southwest USA Southwestern parts of the USA – including Nevada, Arizona and southern California – are now faced with crippling water shortages, on a scale normally only seen in Third World countries. Lake Mead, a key source of water for more than 25 million people (or about 8% of the US population), has run dry as a result of climate change.* Increased population growth and associated demand for water resources have also played a part. Once the largest reservoir in the country, its capacity has declined to almost nothing due to the Colorado River’s net deficit of nearly 1 million acre-feet of water per year. This crisis has occurred despite mitigation measures implemented in the previous decade. As well as providing fresh water, Lake Mead has been a major source of hydroelectric power, via the Hoover Dam. Blackouts are now occurring across much of the area. Las Vegas and its famous lights are particularly hard hit. Authorities have been attempting to stabilise the situation by constructing solar power facilities both in and around the city, as well as laying groundwater pipelines from elsewhere in Nevada.* New techniques for improved farming and water conservation have also been introduced. However, even these measures are proving to be insufficient, and major socio-economic disruption is unavoidable.
The world's largest insect swarm re-emerges Brood X is the largest of 15 groups of 17-year cicadas. Its members, all of the genus Magicicada, tunnel to the surface en masse, mate and lay eggs, then die. This is the biggest swarm of insects in the world. The area covered stretches from New York, down the East Coast to Georgia and west to Illinois. The last time Brood X emerged was in 2004.* Countless billions of the insects infest the Eastern USA, with any existing tranquillity ruined by their incessant buzzing during the mating ritual, which is audible from a mile away. Despite the nuisance it causes, the emergence of this swarm is relatively short-lived. It also delivers vital nutrients to the topsoil, leaving the native environment noticeably better in the weeks after the ensuing die-off.
Five-year survival rates for breast cancer are approaching 100% Worldwide, breast cancer accounts for nearly 23% of all cancers in women (excluding non-melanoma skin cancers). In 2008, it caused 458,000 deaths, 13.7% of cancer deaths in women. It is over 100 times more common in women than in men, although men tend to have poorer outcomes due to delays in diagnosis. In 2011, advances in genetics led researchers to identify 10 subtypes of breast cancer, each with its own unique genetic fingerprint.* In that same year, three genes linked to the most common form of breast cancer were found, including one responsible for driving the growth of tumours.* Combined with personalised genomics, this paved the way for a new generation of drugs and other treatments that were precisely customisable for a particular individual. In many Western countries, five-year survival rates are now approaching 100%,** with 10-year survival likely to meet this level in the mid-2030s.*
Male birth control pills are entering the market Early in this decade, the first male birth control pills are available for mass consumption.** Methods of chemical male birth control had been around for a few decades. Early efforts focused on using testosterone and synthetic hormones to limit sperm production, in a similar way to female birth control's effect on egg production. However, these proved to have too many negative side effects and were subsequently abandoned. Other, non-hormonal methods were tried. Among the most successful was a compound known as JQ1, developed by US researchers in 2012.* This worked by targeting a testis-specific protein called BRDT that is essential for fertility. When mice were given the BRDT-inhibiting molecule, they began producing fewer sperm and those they did produce were unable to swim properly. Mating studies confirmed that JQ1 indeed worked as an effective male contraception. Even better, the effects were completely reversible, without adverse consequences for the animals' testosterone levels or behaviour. The molecule also left no apparent side effects on the males' future offspring. The success of this new compound and the strong similarity between mouse and human BRDT proteins allowed JQ1 to proceed to clinical trials, beginning in 2013.* Following an eight year period,* it is available in pill form by 2021. This becomes the first new reversible contraceptive for men since the development of the condom, centuries ago.
The world's first artificial kidney Kidneys perform a vital role in the human body: filtering blood, removing excess fluid and eliminating waste products. They are essential to the urinary system, the regulation of blood pressure (via salt and water balance) and the production of various hormones. Kidney diseases are diverse, but their primary causes over the long-term are diabetes and high blood pressure. Among the most serious clinical conditions is end-stage renal disease (ESRD), affecting 2 million people worldwide. This can lead to complete failure of the kidneys to work at a level needed for day-to-day life. In the later stages of the illness, the only treatment options are dialysis or transplant. Although dialysis can be life-saving, it lasts for only a short time and then the procedure must be repeated. Organ transplants can help patients to regain their strength and mobility, allowing a return to more normal activities; but there is often a shortage of donors, plus the risk of rejection by their immune system. Stem cell treatments are beginning to emerge,* but have yet to include a complete replacement for kidneys. A third option has been explored, however, which is now becoming available for the first time: fully artificial kidneys. This idea was researched at University of California, San Francisco (UCSF), leading to a prototype model in 2010* and clinical trials beginning in 2017.* As part of a government innovation programme,* the development process for this particular project was accelerated, cutting the time required for approval.* Using nanotechnology, the device can mimic almost all the vital functions of the kidney, while a bioreactor performs other renal activities. This is done without the need for pumps or electrical power - filtration is pushed along by the body's own blood pressure. Furthermore, the device has an indefinite lifespan, unlike real transplanted kidneys which typically last for 10 to 12 years.
Mind-reading technology is being deployed for security purposes Twenty years on from 9/11, mind readers are now a common feature of airport security, as well as sports stadiums and other high profile events. This technology faced problems to begin with, as there were false positives recorded by the machines – but recent advances in neuroscience and computer analysing software have greatly improved their accuracy. The system uses "non-invasive" sensors and imagers. These observe a person's emotional state, facial expression, body language, body temperature, heart rate, breathing pattern and other cues. Analysed together, these factors can determine whether they are planning to commit a crime. Specific words, phrases and imagery within the person's brain are still years away from being fully decipherable. However, it is now possible to establish their basic, overall intentions beyond any reasonable doubt.* Another technology to emerge recently is a form of highly sensitive voice-recognition software, which parses a person's speech, then uses algorithms to detect when lies are being told.*
Fully reusable, single-stage-to-orbit spacecraft Until now, all orbital spacecraft have used multiple stages. This has required jettisoning parts of a launch vehicle during the flight, in order to reduce weight. In the early 2020s, however,* a new prototype "space plane" is developed with funding from the EU. This can operate without the need for booster rockets, fuel tanks, engines or other external components, instead utilising a hybrid jet/rocket system.* The vehicle takes off from a specially strengthened runway. It uses a precooled jet engine (rather than scramjet) to reach speeds of Mach 5.5 (1700 m/s), then closes the air inlet and operates as a highly efficient rocket to complete the journey to orbit. Although its payload is only 12 tons (about one-third the capacity of the space shuttle), the craft is substantially cheaper (about 1/10th) and far more efficient (about 400-fold) than earlier spacecraft.* After completing a mission, it reenters the atmosphere with its skin protected by a strong ceramic, landing back on the runway like a normal aeroplane. It then undergoes any necessary maintenance and is capable of flying again in just two days (compared to two months for the space shuttle). These planes are initially unmanned. However, later versions will be used for space tourism – capable of transporting up to 20 passengers in a purpose-built module and costing around $500,000 per person.
A rapidly changing workforce In order to cut real estate costs, become more eco-friendly, and attract the growing number of people seeking work-life balance, most companies by now have adopted a "work wherever you want, whenever you want" policy. An increasingly global talent pool is emerging, with firms aggressively pursuing the best available workers - regardless of where they reside. Recruitment has shifted away from traditional print adverts and online jobs boards, focussing instead on social networking sites. Rising travel costs have also encouraged these trends. Many employees now work a four-day week, consisting of four 10-hour days - while telecommuting and teleconferencing have been further boosted by the growth of superfast broadband. This combination of technology and work options is leading to improved speed, productivity and efficiency in companies around the world. Multi-touch surface computing is widespread, along with seamless integration of wireless devices and applications. Near-paperless offices are becoming a reality.
Wireless electricity is reaching critical mass Most of the latest electric/electronic devices now have antennas in place of batteries, drawing power from a single node mounted in the ceiling of a room. This eliminates the need for multiple wall sockets and bulky cables, greatly reducing clutter in homes and workplaces. It also allows for lighter and more compact handheld devices than ever before.
Traditional microchips are reaching the limits of miniaturisation Semiconductor companies are reaching the limits of miniaturisation for computer chips. The smallest transistors are now being built with a 4-nanometre manufacturing process. This is close to the size of individual atoms. Silicon is impossible to scale below this size, due to the effects of quantum tunnelling. Moore's Law, the trend which sees computer power double every 18 months, has entered a new paradigm shift, with traditional microchips now being abandoned in favour of "stacked" 3-dimensional circuits made from graphene and other new materials.*
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References
1 See 2014. 2 See 2017. 3 See 2019. 4 NASA to Get $100 Million for Asteroid-Capture Mission, Senator Says, Space.com: 5 NASA Eyes Wild Plan to Drag Asteroid Near the Moon, Space.com: 6 See Global temperature. 7 Six
steps to hell, The Guardian: 8 See 2024. 9 NSIDC
bombshell: Thawing permafrost feedback will turn Arctic from carbon sink
to source in the 2020s, releasing 100 billion tons of carbon by 2100, Climate Progress: 10 Lake
Mead Water Level Dropping, enviro-news.com: 11 Lake
Mead water level will be trigger for pipeline, MercuryNews.com: 12 They're Baaack, TIME: 13 Genetic test could pave the way for breast cancer 'magic bullets', The Independent: 14 Breast cancer gene discovery 'like finding gold', The Telegraph: 15 Browse the SEER Cancer Statistics Review 1975-2009, The National Cancer Institute: 16 Breast cancer survival statistics: Figure 3.3: Breast cancer (C50), Age-Standardised Five-Year Relative Survival Rates, Females, England and Wales 1971-1995, England 1996-2009, Cancer Research UK (latest available data): 17 Breast cancer survival could reach 100% by 2034; physically active lifestyle helps lower risk, Future Timeline Blog: 18 Trends & Technology Timeline 2010+, What's Next: 19 What's Next: the future, predicted..., Wired: 20 Male birth control pill moves a step closer, Future Timeline Blog: 21 JQ1 "may enter clinical trial testing within a year". 22 "Many standard treatments used today are the result of past clinical trials, which involve a strict and rigorous, multi-step process that takes eight years on average to complete." 23 See 2020. 24 Shuvo Roy, Scientist and Inventor of the Artificial Kidney, The Daily Star: 25 UCSF Artificial Kidney Project Tapped for Accelerated FDA Program, UCSF: 26 Innovation Pathway, US Food and Drug Administration (FDA): 27 FDA program to foster innovation starts with kidneys, Reuters: 28 The
airport security scanner that can read your mind, Daily Mail: 29 Software That Listens for Lies, The New York Times: 30 "The engine is the long lead item but the vehicle system design must begin soon in order to meet entry to service in 2021-2022." 31 Interview
of Richard Varvill of Reaction Engines and the Skylon Spaceplane by Sander
Olson, Next Big Future: 32 SKYLON
- Passenger Capabilities, Reaction Engines Limited: 33 Wireless power system shown off, BBC: 34 Wireless Power Devices to Reach Critical Mass During the Next Decade, Pike Research: 35 How Wireless Charging Will Make Life Simpler (And Greener), Forbes: 36 Complex
Integrated Circuits Made of Carbon Nanotubes, Technology Review:
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