Economic and jobs news thread

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caltrek
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The 1% Move Report for July 22, 2024


Introduction:
(Morgan Stanley)
What Happened in the Markets?

• The S&P 500 increased 1.1% Monday to end the day at 5,564.41, having gained 16.7% thus far in 2024.

• Nine of 11 S&P 500 sectors were higher on the day, as Information Technology (+2.0%) and Communication Services (+1.2%) were the strongest-performing S&P 500 sectors, while Consumer Staples (-0.0%) and Energy (-0.7%) underperformed.

• By the 4:00 p.m. equity market close, the US 10-year Treasury yield increased 2bp to 4.25%; WTI crude oil decreased to $79.78 per barrel; and gold decreased -0.1% to $2,398.89 per ounce.

Why Did This Move Happen?

• The S&P 500 finished higher Monday, rebounding after its worst week since April, in anticipation of tomorrow’s kickoff of megacap Tech earnings. Investors also reassessed election possibilities after President Biden became the only first-term President in more than half a century not to seek reelection.

• Megacap Tech led the way on Monday. The Magnificent Seven rose 2.3%, while the broader Nasdaq 100 Index gained 1.5% on renewed optimism around the artificial intelligence theme. Investors await Tech earnings announcements this week, seeking clarity on AI's potential profitability and the cohort's elevated valuations
Read more here: https://www.morganstanley.com/content/ ... 20240722
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Green economy could generate 3.3m jobs across Africa by 2030 – report
Fri 26 Jul 2024 12.00 BST

Image

A greener economy could bring millions of jobs to some of the largest countries in Africa, according to a new report.

Research by the development agency FSD Africa and the impact advisory firm Shortlist predicts that 3.3 million jobs could be generated across the continent by 2030.

Forecasting Green Jobs in Africa predicts that 60% of the roles, mainly in the renewable energy sector, will be skilled or white collar positions that can “spur the growth of the middle class in countries with high-growth sectors” such as renewable energy, e-mobility, construction and manufacturing.

The report was based on forecasts from five countries – the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa – that the study says will see more than a fifth of the jobs expected from the green transition over the next six years.

About 10% of the jobs created will demand university degrees, 30% will be “specialised” work that requires certification or vocational training, and 20% administrative. Unskilled labour will be more stable, with opportunities for upward mobility, the study predicts.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-deve ... 030-report
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Inflation eases further in June as Fed's favorite measure, PCE, falls to 2.5%
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-infla ... 16945.html
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caltrek
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One Percent Move Report for July 26, 2024


Introduction:
(Morgan Stanley)

What Happened in the Markets?

• The S&P 500 increased 1.1% Friday to end the day at 5,459.10, having gained 14.5% thus far in 2024.

• All 11 of the S&P 500 sectors were higher on the day, as Industrials (+1.7%) and Materials (+0.7%) were the strongest-performing S&P 500 sectors, while Health Care (+0.6%) and Energy (+0.4%) underperformed.

• By the 4:00 p.m. equity market close, the US 10-year Treasury yield decreased 5bp to 4.19%; WTI crude oil decreased to $76.83 per barrel; and gold increased 0.9% to $2,385.84 per ounce.

Why Did This Move Happen?

• US equities continued to rally on Friday, rebounding from Wednesday's selloff that snapped a 356-day streak without a 2% or more decline. Friday's market action furthered the rotation into small-caps and more economically sensitive sectors, driven by sufficiently soft economic data reinvigorating confidence in a two to three Fed Funds rate cuts and an economic soft landing.

• Core PCE, the Fed’s favored inflation metric, rose to 2.6% for June, roughly in-line with the 2.5% consensus expectations, while holding at the lowest level since March 2021 on an annualized basis.
Read more here: https://www.morganstanley.com/content/ ... -20240726
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caltrek
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The One Percent Move Report for July 31, 2024


Introduction:
(Morgan Stanley)

What Happened in the Markets?

• The S&P 500 increased 1.6% Wednesday to end the day at 5,522.30, having gained 15.8% thus far in 2024.

• Seven of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were higher on the day, as Information Technology (+4.0%) and Consumer Discretionary (+1.8%) were the strongest-performing S&P 500 sectors, while Health Care (-0.4%) and Real Estate (-0.3%) underperformed.

• By the 4:00 p.m. equity market close, the US 10-year Treasury yield decreased 9bp to 4.05%; WTI crude oil increased to $78.49 per barrel; and gold increased 1.6% to $2,449.13 per ounce.

Why Did This Move Happen?

• US equities rose Wednesday, driven by reinvigorated optimism around the artificial intelligence theme, dovish FOMC commentary, and positive economic data, collectively supporting the soft-landing narrative.

• The Federal Reserve delivered on market expectations, opting to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged. Notable changes to the policy statement were largely dovish, while Chair Powell included commentary that a rate cut could happen as "soon as the next meeting."
Read more here: https://www.morganstanley.com/content/ ... 20240731
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caltrek
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Dow Closes Nearly 500 Points Lower as Investors Fear the U.S. Economy is Faltering
by Krystal Hur
August 1, 2024

Introduction:
(CNN) Stocks tumbled Thursday after fresh data stoked fears that the US economy is weakening as interest rates stay at a 23-year high.
The Dow slid by 496 points, or 1.2%, after plunging more than 700 points earlier in the session. The S&P 500 lost 1.4% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.3%.

US Treasury yields fell. The 10-year yield dipped below 4%.

“With a package of data released today suggesting the economy is cooling at a faster — and perhaps too fast — pace, the drop in the ten-year Treasury yield to below 4% reflects a looming economic growth scare,” wrote Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, in a Thursday note.

New economic data revealed that first-time applications for jobless benefits rose last week to an estimated 249,000 filings. That’s the highest tally since last August, according to the Labor Department. Meanwhile, continuing claims, filed by people who have received unemployment benefits for at least a week, jumped to 1.877 million. That’s the highest level since November 2021.

Investors cheered Wednesday after the Federal Reserve signaled at its policy meeting that a long-awaited rate cut is on the table for September. The Fed also noted that inflation is now only “somewhat” elevated, acknowledging the progress it has made in tamping down wayward price increases since the central bank began hiking rates in 2022.
Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/market ... 46e&ei=44
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Job growth totals 114,000 in July, much less than expected, as unemployment rate rises to 4.3%

Source: CNBC

Published Fri, Aug 2 2024 8:31 AM EDT Updated 2 Min Ago


Job growth in the U.S. slowed much more than expected during July and the unemployment rate ticked higher, the Labor Department reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls grew by just 114,000 for the month, down from the downwardly revised 179,000 in June and below the Dow Jones estimate for 185,000. The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.3%, its highest since October 2021.

Average hourly earnings, a closely watched inflation barometer, increased 0.2% for the month and 3.6% from a year ago. Both figures were below respective forecasts for 0.3% and 3.7%.

Stock market futures added to losses following the report while Treasury yields plunged.


This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.
Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/02/job-gro ... rcent.html
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https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME

Gosh I really hope we don't get a recession
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U.S. overtakes China on Fortune's Global 500 list

Source: Axios

6 hours ago


For the first time since 2018, the U.S. has more companies than China on Fortune's Global 500 list, which ranks the world's largest corporations by revenue.

Why it matters: China's economy, the world's second-largest, has faltered lately, dragged down by a yearslong housing crisis and lackluster consumer demand.

The big picture: While China is still in post-pandemic recovery mode, the U.S. slipped those chains a while ago.

Zoom in: There were 139 U.S. companies on Fortune's list, which covers 2023, compared to 133 companies coming from Greater China, which includes the mainland, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan.
Read more: https://www.axios.com/2024/08/05/fortun ... l-us-china
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Economic indicators surprise Wall Street, Consumer spending smashed predictions
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/retail-s ... 18015.html

0.4% rise in Consumer Spending was expected for July, instead we got a 1% rise, that's an incredible beat. People have money and are spending it.

Weekly jobless claims also fell below expectations.
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Sales at stores are suddenly surging in the US economy's latest show of strength

Source: CNN

The backbone of America’s economy remains solid, despite a slowing job market, elevated interest rates and still-high inflation.

Sales at US retailers unexpectedly surged in July, the Commerce Department said Thursday, rising by a solid 1% from the prior month, up from June’s downwardly revised 0.2% decline. That trounced economists’ expectations of a 0.3% gain.

Retail sales, which are adjusted for seasonal swings but not inflation, make up a sizable chunk of overall spending. July’s reading is a boon for the US economy because the country’s economic growth hinges on Americans spending their dollars.

It is the economy’s latest show of strength in the face of several economic hurdles squeezing the US consumer.
Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/15/economy/ ... index.html
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