Ukraine War Watch Thread

[Certain Russian user]

Ukraine's intelligence chief 'fully confirms' Vladimir Putin has cancer... etc.. etc... etc (sadistic fantasies)

Vakanai liked this.

If he does, I hope it's as painful and debilitating as possible.

WjFox liked this.

^ ^ ^
Moral and intellectual degradation often go hand in hand. Do not stare into abyss, idiots, or else abyss will look at you.

[wjfox]

WjFox liked this.

^ ^ ^
Moral and intellectual degradation often go hand in hand. Do not stare into abyss, idiots, or else abyss will look at you.

Do please explain to us what's "moral" and "intellectual" about invading Ukraine, slaughtering its citizens, causing $100 billion in damage and displacing 14 million people, damaging your own country's reputation and economy in the process.

[caltrek]

Who are the Neo-Nazis Fighting for Russia in Ukraine?
by Dmitry Kozhurin
May 28, 2022

Introduction:

(RFE/RL) — The video, published in December 2020, showed two nattily dressed Russian men — waistcoats, pocket squares, silk ties – sipping American whiskey in brandy snifters and discussing killing Ukrainians.

“I’m a Nazi. I’m a Nazi,” said one of the men, Aleksei Milchakov, who was the main focus of the video published on a Russian nationalist YouTube channel. “I’m not going to go deep and say, I’m a nationalist, a patriot, an imperialist, and so forth. I’ll say it outright: I’m a Nazi.”

“You have to understand that when you kill a person, you feel the excitement of the hunt. If you’ve never been hunting, you should try it. It’s interesting,” he said.

Aside from being a notorious, avowed Nazi known for killing a puppy and posting bragging photographs about it on social media, Milchakov is the head of a Russian paramilitary group known as Rusich, which openly embraces Nazi symbolism and radical racist ideologies. The group, and Milchakov himself, have been credibly linked to atrocities in Ukraine and in Syria.

Along with members of the Russian Imperial Movement, a white supremacist group that was designated a “global terrorist” organization by the United States two years ago, Rusich is one of several right-wing groups that are actively fighting in Ukraine, in conjunction with Russia’s regular armed forces or allied separatist units.

Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/28052022- ... -analysis/

[funkervogt]

Folks, for the past few weeks, I've gotten concerned that the Western mainstream media (particularly the U.S. media) has become too biased in its reporting about the Ukraine Invasion, and it's giving average people an inaccurate view of the status of the conflict. For one, there is no real evidence that Putin has a terminal illness, like cancer.

https://www.businessinsider.com/no-cred ... rts-2022-5

Remember to always look at the source of the information. Ukrainian intelligence, for example, has an obvious bias and shouldn't be trusted.

I'm worried that Russia could win a significant victory in eastern Ukraine, and it will be a huge shock to people in the West since they'd bought into the long-running narrative that Russian forces were on the verge of collapse. It would be like Trump winning the election even though the news outlets claimed he only had a 5% chance, or Afghanistan's government spectacularly disintegrating even though average Americans had no clue it was so weak and rotten from the inside.

Whenever you see an internet video of a Russian tank being blown up, realize there is also a video of a Ukrainian tank blowing up, but you're not seeing it because the Western mainstream media has decided not to show it, and because your social media algorithms aren't showing you content they know you will dislike.

I hope Ukraine achieves a total victory against Russia, but I think it's unlikely. A cease-fire agreement that leaves Russia in control of a large swath of Ukraine is probably how this will end.

[raklian]

I hope Ukraine achieves a total victory against Russia, but I think it's unlikely. A cease-fire agreement that leaves Russia in control of a large swath of Ukraine is probably how this will end.

I doubt it's going to be that simple for Russia because the United States is involved in this conflict in more ways than we think. It's more likely than not the conflict is going to drag on with Ukraine bringing US-supplied sophisticated weapons to the front lines in an increasingly incremental manner until Russia is incapable of continuing the offensive largely due to sanctions-mediated internal economic and political issues in her own country which are starting to take a toll. The United States was probably already aware Putin has cancer and decided part of the strategy would make it a war of attrition until Putin is no longer of this world. I still stand by my prediction Ukraine will eventually reclaim Donbas and Crimea as one of requirements Russia must agree to in order for the Untied States to reduce the severity of the sanctions.

[Certain Russian user]

Folks, for the past few weeks, I've gotten concerned that the Western mainstream media (particularly the U.S. media)... giving average people an inaccurate view of the status of the conflict.

Exactly. I wonder how many people at least suspect this?

Whenever you see an internet video of a Russian tank being blown up, realize there is also a video of a Ukrainian tank blowing up

Not just that. Sometimes, and quite often, when you see a Russian tank being blown up, this was actually an Ukrainian tank being blown up. Some viral footage of "Ukrainian victories" (drone strikes, for example) are actually from Syria or Libya, and so on...

I do not deny, though, that many Russian tanks were lost. If you're interested, there is a good website where they collect a full (as far as possible) catalog of all the lost military stuff, with dates, photos, and circumstances (where it is possible). And since WjFox is blocking all my links, google this - "lostarmour the losses of armoured vehicles in Ukraine" - to see the database.

I'm worried that Russia could win a significant victory in eastern Ukraine, and it will be a huge shock to people in the West...

Well, yes, that's why I'm following this thread with such interest. If things go the way they are now, the silly gloating will surely give way to cries of despair and posts like "I don't want to live in this world anymore..." and so on (if you remember the old forum, you know what I mean).

A cease-fire agreement that leaves Russia in control of a large swath of Ukraine is probably how this will end.

Yes, likely. I expected a different outcome: complete annihilation of Ukrainian project and mass (and irreversible) emigration of "political Ukrainians" to Europe. But this one is not bad either.

[funkervogt]

Folks, for the past few weeks, I've gotten concerned that the Western mainstream media (particularly the U.S. media)... giving average people an inaccurate view of the status of the conflict.

Exactly. I wonder how many people at least suspect this?

The news you are seeing in Russia is also biased, so you are probably overestimating the odds of Russian victory.

[Vakanai]

Certain Russian user, please don't quote me. I put you on my ignore list so I can't see your posts, but I still get notifications that you've quoted me.

[Vakanai]

Folks, for the past few weeks, I've gotten concerned that the Western mainstream media (particularly the U.S. media) has become too biased in its reporting about the Ukraine Invasion, and it's giving average people an inaccurate view of the status of the conflict. For one, there is no real evidence that Putin has a terminal illness, like cancer.

https://www.businessinsider.com/no-cred ... rts-2022-5

Remember to always look at the source of the information. Ukrainian intelligence, for example, has an obvious bias and shouldn't be trusted.

I'm worried that Russia could win a significant victory in eastern Ukraine, and it will be a huge shock to people in the West since they'd bought into the long-running narrative that Russian forces were on the verge of collapse. It would be like Trump winning the election even though the news outlets claimed he only had a 5% chance, or Afghanistan's government spectacularly disintegrating even though average Americans had no clue it was so weak and rotten from the inside.

Whenever you see an internet video of a Russian tank being blown up, realize there is also a video of a Ukrainian tank blowing up, but you're not seeing it because the Western mainstream media has decided not to show it, and because your social media algorithms aren't showing you content they know you will dislike.

I hope Ukraine achieves a total victory against Russia, but I think it's unlikely. A cease-fire agreement that leaves Russia in control of a large swath of Ukraine is probably how this will end.

Oh I don't believe for a second that Putin has cancer. We're never going to be that lucky.

I honestly don't see Ukraine ever accepting that outcome.

[Certain Russian user]

The news you are seeing in Russia is also biased...

Of course. But I, at least, can read and compare the news from both sides. Besides, believe me or not, I do not watch TV and my main source are "reports from the ground" from Telegram (the last REALLY independent major social network). I'd gladly showed you my sources, but...

blocked /OpenUkraine/17989?single
blocked /boris_rozhin/51121

...so you are probably overestimating the odds of Russian victory.

Probably, and probably not. There is no point arguing now. If you wish we can calmly discuss everything that happened a year or two later.

[Certain Russian user]

Meanwhile, another successful missile strike: the headquarters of Ukrainian operational command "South". According to reports from the field, 37 officers, including three generals, were demilitarized... again, all the evidence in telegram (not allowed to see here!), so let this stay "Russian disinformation and propaganda".

Not all news are so good, though. Enraged and frustrated by their defeats on the battlefield, Ukrainians once again shelling the residential areas in Donetsk. Six civilians killed, school number 22 damaged... also, terrorist attack in Melitopol... In short, though the beast is already writhing in convulsions, these convulsions will be long and many more innocent people will die.

[wjfox]

missile strike

[...]

37 officers, including three generals, were demilitarized

Can you explain to us why this needed to happen?

[raklian]

[caltrek]

Time to check in on some old predictions about the Ukraine War that went viral...

...
There are two problems in Ukraine: conscription and gasoline shortage. Solution? Very simple: draft (hand over summonses) everyone who is in line! Cars drive away in a panic...

blocked /boris_rozhin/51121
(to make link work remove space after t.me)

You have me at a disadvantage in that I cannot read your link. Still, from another link to an article dated April 1, 2022 (see below) it would appear that Russia also has a conscription problem:

President Vladimir Putin announced Thursday that the Russian Armed Forces will draft 134,500 men over the next three months and release a similar number of soldiers who have completed their service (Pravo.gov.ru, March 31 – publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001202203310006 ). Russia has always faced problems with its twice-a-year draft: On the one hand, young men and their families do not want to have their lives interrupted; and on the other hand, the loss of such a large share of the shrinking cohort of young people has a serious impact on the national economy. This year, those problems have been compounded for two reasons. First, many Russians fear they or their sons will be sent to fight and possibly die in Ukraine. And second, the pool of potential manpower has shrunk due to the massive flight abroad of many young Russians, especially the most highly educated ones, whom the military would like to have.

As a result, in the words of one Moscow-based commentator, the draft this time around “threatens to become a silent referendum” on public confidence in the military and in the Kremlin as well (Theins.ru, March 23 – https://theins.ru/politika/249486 ). At a minimum, it will challenge the state’s ability to carry out the spring-time call-up; and quite possibly, it may spark new anger in the population—especially if the authorities try to meet their quotas by typically heavy-handed means.

Obviously, the war in Ukraine looms over this draft. Many Russians of all ages fear that conscripts will be sent to fight and possibly die in Ukraine in order to make up for Russian battlefield losses to date. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu promised two days ago that no draftees will be deployed in combat (TV Zvezda, March 29 – https://tvvezda.ry/news/20223291225-2lhsX.html ); but his credibility in this respect is minimal given that, earlier this month, after numerous denials, his ministry was forced to concede that Moscow was using conscripts in Putin’s war in Ukraine (Zona.media , March 9 – https://zona.media/2022/03/09/srochnik). One step the Kremlin may take to try to minimize such fears, analysts say, is to seek to achieve a major victory or even end the war before the culmination of the current draft period, which extends into June.

Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/01042022- ... -analysis/

[caltrek]

...Not all news are so good, though. Enraged and frustrated by their defeats on the battlefield, Ukrainians once again shelling the residential areas in Donetsk. Six civilians killed, school number 22 damaged... also, terrorist attack in Melitopol... In short, though the beast is already writhing in convulsions, these convulsions will be long and many more innocent people will die.

How interesting that you manage to avoid acknowledging Russian strikes on civilian targets while characterizing an attack in Melitopol as "terrorist." If there is anything that is "terrorist" in this conflict it is Russia's unprovoked attack on Ukraine. An attack clearly calculated, at least in its apparently improvised form, to terrorize the Ukrainian population into submission to Russia. Or rather Ukraine's submission to Vladimir Putin - which Russian loyalists apparently see as being the same thing.

[weatheriscool]

Sievierodonetsk mayor says Russian forces seize half of city
Source: AP

By YURAS KARMANAU and ELENA BECATOROS

SLOVIANSK, Ukraine (AP) — Russian forces in a “frenzied push” have seized half of the eastern Ukrainian city of Sievierodonetsk that is key to Moscow’s efforts to quickly complete the capture of the industrial Donbas region, the mayor told The Associated Press on Tuesday.

“The city is essentially being destroyed ruthlessly block by block,” Oleksandr Striuk said. He said heavy street fighting continues and artillery bombardments threaten the lives of the estimated 13,000 civilians still sheltering in the ruined city that once was home to more than 100,000.

It’s impossible to track civilian casualties amid the round-the-clock shelling, said the mayor, who believes that more than 1,500 residents have died of various causes since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February. Evacuation efforts from Sievierodonetsk have been halted because of shelling.

“Civilians are dying from direct strikes, from fragmentation wounds and under the rubble of destroyed buildings, since most of the inhabitants are hiding in basements and shelters,” Striuk said.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 3202fbca14

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

Biden says US sending medium-range rocket systems to Ukraine
Source: AP

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. will send Ukraine four sophisticated, medium-range rocket systems and ammunition to help try to stall Russian progress in the Donbas region of its country, but it will take at least three weeks to get the precision weapons and trained troops onto the battlefield, the Pentagon said Wednesday.

Colin Kahl, the defense undersecretary for policy, said the U.S. has received assurances at the highest government levels that Ukraine will use the rockets to defend its nation and not launch them into Russia. The agreement underscores U.S. concerns about provoking a wider war with Russia while still providing Ukraine the weapons it has desperately requested in recent weeks.

The rocket systems are part of a new $700 million tranche of security assistance for Ukraine from the U.S. that also includes helicopters, Javelin anti-tank weapon systems, radars, tactical vehicles, spare parts and more.

Asked if the weapons are arriving too late to make a difference, as Russia makes progress in the east and south, Kahl said he doesn’t think so.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 340fa4d53a

[funkervogt]

This is Russian trash TV. They say all kinds of threatening and extreme things to appeal to the emotions of Russians and to (hopefully) intimidate Westerners. Ignore it.

[funkervogt]

"Russian troops invaded 3,620 populated localities of Ukraine. 1,017 of them have already been liberated, another 2,603 need to be liberated. As of today, about 20% of our territory is controlled by the occupiers, almost 125,000 square kilometers. It is much more than the area of all Benelux countries combined," Zelensky said in his address to the politicians and the people of Luxembourg, Ukrinform reports.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/34 ... itory.html

If Russia were to declare a cease-fire right now and merely defend the territory it has taken over, it would be a major loss for Ukraine. Ukraine has lost access to the Sea of Azov, Russia has a secure land route to Crimea, and Ukraine will be even less able to defend itself against a future Russian invasion once the Russians rebuild their military.