Ukraine War Watch Thread

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]

[Certain Russian user]

I think it's time for me to return here and add...

Mariupol

Technically speaking, there are still some nazi rats and their foreign "friends" (in fact, bosses) trapped in industrial area. They're still begging the "world community" to provide them some "security corridor" and, for some unknown (but purely political) reasons, are still alive. But the residential areas are already (sometime from mid-April, this is difficult to point a certain day) fully liberated and slowly returning back to normal. One local 6-7 years old boy worded this very well: "evil soldiers gone, good soldiers remained".

[Certain Russian user]

And I scrolled through the previous page (too lazy to read all what was added since my last visit, sorry)... you, guys, are amazing:

They're going to try holding it for a while but only to lose it again once the Ukrainians launch a counteroffensive...

I agree, the Russians can't win this. We can read about advanced weapons being shipped from USA, France and other European countries. I think Ukraine will manage to kick Russia out of their country.

[funkervogt]

Here's a good analysis of the Ukraine War and its possible outcomes.

https://static.rusi.org/special-report- ... -z-web.pdf

It's premature to assume Ukraine will win. Russia could still grind down the Ukrainians over the course of this year. If Ukraine falls, Moldova is almost certainly next.

The West might lose its unity and resolve in the coming months, especially as higher gas and oil prices start causing real damage to their economies.

[raklian]

The West might lose its unity and resolve in the coming months, especially as higher gas and oil prices start causing real damage to their economies.

With all those economic sanctions plus more incoming, I think Russia is the one more economically damaged. In a war between sides especially one that is about attrition, one that is relatively worse off economically tends to burn out first. Europe might start to doubt its resolve as high gas prices start to eat into people's wallets but the United States will give it a renewed push to act tough on Russia. Europe will listen to Biden. On balance, Russia is in a weaker position. That entails damaging its worldwide reputation and of course the war in Ukraine.

[Xyls]

Moldova holds security meeting after blasts in pro-Russia breakaway region

Seems like clear false-flag attacks against Moldova, with the attempt to try an escalate conflict in Transnistria. So really seems like Russia wants to go all the way with a southern strategy. Doubt they are going to succeed at this. They are going to have major problems trying to take Zaporizhizia let alone trying to take the rest of the Donbas.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ansnistria

[funkervogt]

The West might lose its unity and resolve in the coming months, especially as higher gas and oil prices start causing real damage to their economies.

With all those economic sanctions plus more incoming, I think Russia is the one more economically damaged. In a war between sides especially one that is about attrition, one that is relatively worse off economically tends to burn out first. Europe might start to doubt its resolve as high gas prices start to eat into people's wallets but the United States will give it a renewed push to act tough on Russia. Europe will listen to Biden. On balance, Russia is in a weaker position. That entails damaging its worldwide reputation and of course the war in Ukraine.

Your probably right, though the Russians are probably willing to endure more sacrifices than Westerners to win in Ukraine.

[weatheriscool]

Russia warns Britain of immediate 'proportional response' for 'provoking' Ukraine to attack
Source: The Guardian

Russia’s defence ministry has warned of an immediate “proportional response” if Britain continues its “direct provocation” of Ukraine to strike targets in Russia, Reuters reports.

The ministry cited statements from the UK’s armed forces minister, James Heappey, that said Britain backs Ukrainian troops carrying out strikes in Russian territory. Speaking earlier today, Heappey said it was “not necessarily a problem” if Ukraine uses weapons donated by Britain.

We would like to underline that London’s direct provocation of the Kiev regime into such actions, if such actions are carried out, will immediately lead to our proportional response.

As we have warned, the Russian Armed Forces are in round-the-clock readiness to launch retaliatory strikes with high-precision long-range weapons at decision-making centers in Kyiv.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... -kyiv-live

[caltrek]

The United States Has Supported Successful Mediation in 11 Vicious Conflicts since 1990: Could Ukraine Make it an Even Dozen?
by Stephen R. Weissman
April 27, 2022

https://thebulletin.org/2022/04/the-uni ... st-heading

Introduction:

(Bulletin of Atomic Scientists) Up to now, the United States, along with its Western partners, has been rightly preoccupied with furnishing Ukraine the weapons needed to defend itself against massive Russian aggression, ramping up crushing economic sanctions against Russia, and decrying the latter’s war crimes. However, they also need to use their considerable leverage with both sides to promote neutral third-party mediation to deescalate this particularly dangerous war. US and Western policy makers should remember that their predecessors’ support for such mediations has helped settle 11 vicious civil wars and interstate conflicts since 1990.

The very existence of so many cases suggests that Ukraine and Russia are unlikely to reach an enduring peace agreement by themselves, at least in the foreseeable future. After mediating the genocidal conflict in Burundi for two years, former Tanzanian President Julius Nyerere told me, “One thing I know. They can’t do it on their own.” Irregular phone calls and meetings with the Ukraine combatants by a changing cast of concerned world leaders testify to their belief that third party intervention is necessary to stem the crisis. But they are no substitute for a well-structured peace process, one led by a prime mediator like the United Nations or a small group of countries acceptable to Russia and Ukraine and bolstered by other relevant nations.

No doubt the 11 conflicts, from Bosnia to Sudan, would have eventually ended on their own, or at least been interrupted for a time. But the costs of delayed, do-it-yourself peacemaking can be extremely high, as we have seen recently in Afghanistan and the Iran-Iraq War.

Mediation becomes opportune when it appears that neither party is likely to achieve a military victory within a short-to-medium time frame. While no one knows what the exact military balance in Ukraine will look like in the next few months or possibly years, it is most unlikely that the larger and more powerful combatant, Russia, will be totally defeated—no matter how many Western arms flow to a much smaller Ukraine. Even if some of Russia’s recent advances in the South and East are reversed, President Vladimir Putin can be expected to fight on for a considerable time, given his deeply felt security concerns and personal political interest in some sort of “victory.”

caltrek's comment: Of course, those who proclaim to be the most upset about loss of life among the ranks of the Russian military, and the disrespect surrounding such suffering, are also the ones least likely to support the obvious solution - a mediated settlement.

[weatheriscool]

Biden seeks $33 billion for Ukraine, powers to liquidate Russian assets
Source: Washington Post

The White House on Thursday announced a proposal to allow U.S. authorities to liquidate the assets of Russian oligarchs and donate the proceeds to Ukraine, seeking what appears to be broad new legal powers to expand America’s financial war on the Kremlin amid bipartisan pressure in Congress.

President Biden will send the new plan to Congress along with a broader request for $33 billion to help the Ukrainians fight Russia’s invasion. Biden’s funding request includes $20 billion in military assistance for Ukraine, $8.5 billion in economic assistance and $3 billion in humanitarian aid, among other pots of money, such as $500 million to support production of U.S. crops to address the global food shock caused by the war.

The White House has not revealed the legislative text behind its Russian oligarchs proposal but said the proposal “would improve” the federal government’s ability to send seized funds to Ukraine. Under current law, the United States can typically only freeze — not seize or liquidate — the assets of sanctioned individuals. Civil liberties groups had raised concerned that prior congressional proposals to do so ran afoul of constitutional protections by allowing federal law enforcement to circumvent judicial procedure. It was not immediately clear how the White House would seek to change existing statute without violating those protections.

“This package of proposals will establish new authorities for the forfeiture of property linked to Russian kleptocracy, allow the government to use the proceeds to support Ukraine, and further strengthen related law enforcement tools,” the White House said in a fact sheet. The White House’s requests to Congress will now be subject of intense wrangling on Capitol Hill as lawmakers face a crunch of spending fights in a worsening economy. The administration is also pushing Congress to approve tens of billions of dollars in funding to fight the pandemic, with the White House warning of diminishing funds for vaccines and other treatments.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... s-ukraine/

[wjfox]

Russian forces will collapse and Putin to face coup after 'major strategic shift in war', expert says

6h ago 10:28

Dr Mike Martin, a military expert and war studies visiting fellow at King's College London has offered some interesting analysis this morning on the recent developments on the ground in Ukraine and what they could mean.

He suggests the Russian assault on Donbas has "fizzled" and that Moscow has squandered its one chance to take the region - and achieve something it could present as a successful outcome to the invasion.

Dr Martin says the battle will last another two to four weeks, as Russia runs out of troops and Ukraine counterattacks.

And, he says, the war has now seen "a major strategic shift" that has prompted the UK to outline a clearer and more ambitious strategic aim, citing UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss.

However, he indicates Ms Truss is wrong to predict the goal of evicting Russian forces entirely from Ukraine would take 10 years - saying "Russian forces will collapse before that, and we'll see a coup".

Read more: https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war- ... eblog-body

[wjfox]

Cracks emerging in Russian elites as oligarchs begin to speak out on Putin's invasion

20m ago
16:11

The nature of Vladimir Putin's regime and the harsh measures meted out to those publicly critical of him and his actions have ensured very little dissent among prominent figures in the country since he launched the invasion.

However, a report in the Washington Post indicates this may, very slowly, be changing.

The newspaper quotes a number of the 37 wealthy business executives who were summoned to the Kremlin for a meeting with Mr Putin hours after the war began.

While none have directly criticised the Russian president, the quotes they gave to the newspaper on condition of anonymity suggest growing displeasure among the Russian elite about the impact the invasion has had on them.

"In one day, they destroyed what was built over many years. It's a catastrophe," said one businessman who was called to the meeting with Mr Putin, according to the post.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war- ... eblog-body

[andmar74]

It soon became clear the presidential offices were not the safest place to be. The military informed Zelensky that Russian strike teams had parachuted into Kyiv to kill or capture him and his family. “Before that night, we had only ever seen such things in the movies,” says Andriy Yermak, the President’s chief of staff.

As Ukrainian troops fought the Russians back in the streets, the presidential guard tried to seal the compound with whatever they could find. A gate at the rear entrance was blocked with a pile of police barricades and plywood boards, resembling a mound of junkyard scrap more than a fortification.

Friends and allies rushed to Zelensky’s side, sometimes in violation of security protocols. Several brought their families to the compound. If the President were to be killed, the chain of succession in Ukraine calls for the Speaker of parliament to take command. But Ruslan Stefanchuk, who holds that post, drove straight to Bankova Street on the morning of the invasion rather than taking shelter at a distance.

Stefanchuk was among the first to see the President in his office that day. “It wasn’t fear on his face,” he told me. “It was a question: How could this be?” For months Zelensky had downplayed warnings from Washington that Russia was about to invade. Now he registered the fact that an all-out war had broken out, but could not yet grasp the totality of what it meant. “Maybe these words sound vague or pompous,” says Stefanchuk. “But we sensed the order of the world collapsing.” Soon the Speaker rushed down the street to the parliament and presided over a vote to impose martial law across the country. Zelensky signed the decree that afternoon.

Somewhere outside the capital, a secure bunker was waiting for the President, equipped to withstand a lengthy siege. Zelensky refused to go there. Instead, on the second night of the invasion, while Ukrainian forces were fighting the Russians in nearby streets, the President decided to walk outside into the courtyard and film a video message on his phone. “We’re all here,” Zelensky said after doing a roll call of the officials by his side. They were dressed in the army green T-shirts and jackets that would become their war-time uniforms. “Defending our independence, our country.”

https://time.com/6171277/volodymyr-zele ... raine-war/

[andmar74]

[weatheriscool]

Russian forces will collapse and Putin to face coup after 'major strategic shift in war', expert says

6h ago 10:28

Dr Mike Martin, a military expert and war studies visiting fellow at King's College London has offered some interesting analysis this morning on the recent developments on the ground in Ukraine and what they could mean.

He suggests the Russian assault on Donbas has "fizzled" and that Moscow has squandered its one chance to take the region - and achieve something it could present as a successful outcome to the invasion.

Dr Martin says the battle will last another two to four weeks, as Russia runs out of troops and Ukraine counterattacks.

And, he says, the war has now seen "a major strategic shift" that has prompted the UK to outline a clearer and more ambitious strategic aim, citing UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss.

However, he indicates Ms Truss is wrong to predict the goal of evicting Russian forces entirely from Ukraine would take 10 years - saying "Russian forces will collapse before that, and we'll see a coup".

Read more: https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war- ... eblog-body

History repeats a lot in Russia. I am talking about 1917-1918.

[wjfox]

[Yuli Ban]

I don't know, it feels a bit like wishful thinking.

[weatheriscool]

Russia's Donbas offensive has made little progress in fierce combat, Western officials and analysts
Source: New York Times

The clenched fist of military forces that Russia mustered in eastern Ukraine appears to be losing some of its punch, with the effort to capture all of the Donbas region stalling, according to a senior Pentagon official and other military analysts.

The Russian offensive seems to be several days behind schedule, the Pentagon official said on Friday. It is facing stiff resistance from Ukrainian forces and suffering from some of the same problems with logistics and low troop morale that have plagued the Russian military since it launched a sweeping invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, the official said.

Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/29 ... d=url-copy

[Xyls]