There are a lot of unique and untested variables in this upcoming presidential election. It is the first race in more than 100 years between an incumbent and former incumbent president (both of whom would be the oldest ever to be inaugurated). It is the first to feature a major party nominee under multiple indictments. And it's the first presidential contest since the Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe v. Wade.
At this point, however, the defining issue for this contest is a more traditional one: the economy. “Right now, this election is about President Biden’s economic record and America’s economic future,” said GS Strategies President Greg Strimple. “When it comes to who voters trust to move the economy forward, Trump is in the driver’s seat.”
While abortion remains a strong issue for Democrats, Biden’s advantage on the issue isn’t strong enough to offset Trump’s overall strength on bringing down the cost of living.
“Voters clearly recognize the huge steps backward a Trump presidency might bring - they are pessimistic about what he could do to abortion rights, progress on climate change, and even failing to protect Medicare and Social Security. And yet, their economic frustrations are enough to override all that,” said Lindsay Vermeyen, Partner at BSG.
That is one of the big takeaways from the Swing State Project — a collaboration between the Cook Political Report, GS Strategy Group (a Republican polling firm), and BSG (a Democratic polling firm). The project surveyed 3,969 voters in seven battleground states from May 6 to May 13.
In the seven states combined, Trump leads Biden in a head-to-head matchup 47% to 44%. In a five-way ballot test that includes Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and independent Cornel West, Trump opened a larger lead: 43% to 38% for Biden and 8% for Kennedy Jr.
When looking at the individual states, Trump leads Biden in all but Wisconsin, where the two candidates are tied at 45% each. Trump’s leads in North Carolina (+7) and Nevada (+9) are the most robust. His leads in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania are much narrower, between one and three points. In 2020, Biden won every one of these states except North Carolina.
RFK Jr. Bashes Trump—And Draws Cheers—Before Ex-President’s Speech To Libertarians by James Farrell
May 25, 2024
Introduction:
(Forbes) Long-shot presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. drew cheers when he lashed out at former President Donald Trump’s pandemic lockdowns during a speech at the Libertarian Party convention Friday, just a day before Trump is set to face the same crowd for his own speech Saturday.
Key Facts
Kennedy, a controversial skeptic of vaccines and the public health measures taken during the pandemic, claimed Trump “caved” to bureaucrats in instituting pandemic lockdowns.
Citing the closing of businesses, mask mandates and travel restrictions, Kennedy said Trump presided over “the greatest restriction of individual liberties this country has ever known,” and was met with applause.
Kennedy, whose third-party run could play spoiler for Trump, said Trump didn’t “stand up for the Constitution when it really mattered” and argued that there’s no pandemic exception to the rights granted by the constitution.
His speech was not the only indication that Trump could face at least a somewhat hostile crowd when he speaks on Saturday—former Republican presidential candidate and now-Trump backer Vivek Ramaswamy was booed when he mentioned Trump during his own speech.
‘He’s More Delusional than I Thought’: Libertarians Jeer Trump During Convention Speech by Brittany Gibson and Peder Schaefer
May 25, 2024
Introduction:
(Politico) If Donald Trump came to the Libertarian National Convention to make peace on Saturday, it could hardly have gone worse.
Within minutes of beginning speaking — and after enduring sustained jeering and boos — the former president turned on the third party, mocking its poor electoral record in presidential elections even as he appealed to them for their endorsement.
“What’s the purpose of the Libertarian Party of getting 3 percent?” Trump asked the crowd, which proceeded to pelt him with jeers. “You should nominate Trump for president only if you want to win.”
The libertarians in attendance didn’t want to hear it, as hecklers chucked insults at Trump all night. “Liar,” they called him. “Panderer,” they shouted. “You crushed our rights,” they belted.
The raucous reception laid bare the difficulties confronting Trump in his effort to expand his base and cut off a third-party threat, not only from Libertarians, but also from independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Despite the Libertarian Party’s relatively small following, its 2020 candidate, Jo Jorgensen, drew more votes in some close states than the margin separating Trump and now-President Joe Biden
“If we unite, we are unstoppable,” Trump told a crowd split between Libertarians and Trump supporters. “You have to combine with us.”
Trump Doesn't Submit Paperwork to be Considered by Libertarian Party After Soliciting Votes by Megan Lebowitz
May 26, 2024
Introduction:
(NBC) WASHINGTON — Hours after former President Donald Trump asked libertarians for their party's nomination and votes, the party chair said he did not submit the appropriate paperwork.
"I also learned that Mr. Trump did not turn in any nominating papers," Libertarian Party Chair Angela McArdle announced to the delegates Sunday. "But he was nominated, and it's nice to be nominated."
Moments earlier, the crowd at the Libertarian National Convention jeered the man nominating Trump for consideration.
“I would like to nominate the greatest president of our time, Donald J. Trump,” the libertarian said as the crowd of delegates booed loudly in response.
Another man made his way to a microphone to argue that Trump did not qualify for nomination, which the crowd responded to with applause and a partial standing ovation.
Libertarians Nominate Chase Oliver for President, Rejecting Trump and RFK Jr by Robert Tait
May 27, 2024
Introduction:
(The Guardian) The US Libertarian party has nominated Chase Oliver as its presidential candidate after members rejected overtures from Donald Trump and Robert F Kennedy Jr.
Oliver, 38, who describes himself as “armed and gay”, was chosen at the party’s convention in Washington DC on Sunday at the end of seven rounds of voting that lasted seven hours.
Accepting the nomination, he vowed to be “the only national candidate” – contrasting himself to Trump, Kennedy and President Joe Biden – in the presidential poll and called for a ceasefire in Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, saying “end the genocide”.
Additional Extracrt::
(Robert F Kennedy Jr.) was eliminated in the first round of Sunday’s voting after winning just 19 votes, 2% of the total. Trump, who was not an official potential nominee, won six write-in votes.
In his acceptance speech, Oliver took aim at both candidates, as well as Biden.
Trump Doubles Down, Seeking Fossil Fuel Cash at Private Houston Lunch by Dharna Noor
May 24, 2024
Introduction:
(Mother Jones) Donald Trump was continuing to ask fossil-fuel executives to fund his presidential campaign on Wednesday, despite scrutiny of his relationship with the industry.
The former president attended a fundraising luncheon at Houston’s Post Oak hotel hosted by three Big Oil executives.
The invitation-only meeting comes a day after the defense rested its case in Trump’s criminal hush-money trial, and a week after Houston was battered by deadly storms. The climate crisis, caused primarily by the burning of fossil fuels, has created the conditions for more frequent and severe rainfall and flooding, including in Texas.
“Houstonians are staring at Trump in disbelief as he flies in to beg Big Oil for funds just days after the city’s climate disaster,” said Alex Glass, communications director at the climate advocacy organization Climate Power, and a former Houston resident.
It also follows a fundraising dinner at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club last month, where the former president reportedly asked more than 20 oil executives for $1 billion in campaign donations from their industry and promising, if elected, to remove barriers to drilling, scrap a pause on gas exports, and reverse new rules aimed at cutting car pollution.
