2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

[caltrek]

(Politico)

LIVE RESULTS

Maryland, Presidential. GOP

Donald Trump 190,515 votes, 80.0%.

Nikki Haley 47,597 votes, 20.0%.

82.7% of expected vote in.

https://www.politico.com/2024-election/ ... maryland/#

[caltrek]

West Virginia Voters Reject January 6 Rioter Running for Congress
by Stephanie Mencimer
May 15, 2024

Introduction:

(Mother Jones) West Virginia voters had an unenviable choice of congressional candidates in the GOP primary Tuesday: a guy who stormed the Capitol on January 6, or an incumbent who, after having to evacuate the Capitol during the riot, went back to vote against certifying the election. Voters chose the incumbent.

Rep. Carol Miller trounced “J6 prisoner” Derrick Evans by almost 30 points, in the race to represent West Virginia’s first district. She will likely win the general election in November. The campaign has been viewed as something of a litmus test of how voters view the January 6 insurrection three years later.

Evans had just been elected to the state legislature when he livestreamed himself breaching the US Capitol along with the angry mob. He announced his candidacy for Congress soon after leaving prison, where he had served a 90-day sentence after pleading guilty to a felony for obstructing law enforcement during civil disorder. He made his January 6 conviction a centerpiece of his energetic campaign. He was endorsed by the House Freedom Caucus chairman Rep. Bob Good (R-VA), and former Trump National Security Adviser Michael Flynn appeared with him in Charleston last week, saying, “I want people of high moral character, people who are incorruptible, who are willing to lead our country forward against this tyrannical overreaching political establishment that we have.”

But in the past month, as his campaign gained traction, she clearly started to think about him a little more. In early April, for the first time, campaign finance records show she spent $40,000 on polling. During the last quarter, her fundraising shot up by $370,000, fueled by lots of donations not from West Virginia voters but from inside the Beltway lobbyists happy to ante up for a member of the powerful House Ways and Means committee.

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... congress/

[spryfusion]

NYT article: Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden

[weatheriscool]

NYT article: Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden

If I was to bet I'd say Trump has the edge and has probably 2/3rds odds based on polling. I think the majority of the American people simply don't give a shit about his crimes.

[firestar464]

Nah they're simply waiting on a conviction.

[weatheriscool]

Fox: Trump +1
Trump (R) 49%
Biden (D) 48%

Trump +5 in March (50-45)

Trump (R) 43%
Biden (D) 40%
RFK 11%
Stein 2%
West 2%

Trump +5 in March (43-38)

Biden approval 45/55 (best since Jan 2023)

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/ ... tions-2024

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1791499020235350335

NATIONAL POLL: @EchelonInsights


Trump 49% [+3]
Biden 46% [-3]
—
Trump 43% [+3]
Biden 38% [-3]
RFK Jr 11% [-2]
Stein 3% [+1]
West 1% [-1]
—
Generic Ballot
GOP 49% [+3]
DEM 45%[-4]

[+/- change vs April]

538 #22 (2.7/3.0) | 1,023 LV | 5/13-16

[caltrek]

The Supreme Court Delivers a Rare Win for Black Voters in the South
by Ari Berman
May 16, 2024

Introduction:

(Mother Jones) On Wednesday, the Supreme Court allowed a lower court decision requiring a second majority-Black congressional district in Louisiana to move forward for the 2024 elections, handing down a rare victory for minority representation that also boosts Democrats chances of retaking the House of Representatives.

The case, Landry v. Callais, took a convoluted path to the high court. In June 2022, a federal district court ruled that, under the Voting Rights Act, Louisiana must create a new majority-Black district in a state where Black voters were a third of the population but held a majority in only one of the state’s six congressional districts. The Supreme Court temporarily blocked that ruling for the 2022 election, but following the Court’s decision in Allen v. Milligan in June 2023 that Alabama had to create a second majority-Black congressional district, Louisiana was ordered to do the same.
The state’s Republican-controlled legislature reluctantly held a special session in January 2024 to create a new majority-Black district that favored Democrats.

A group of “non-African American” voters then challenged that map and in April a federal district court panel, with two Trump-appointed judges writing for the majority, struck it down, arguing that race was the predominant factor in drawing the district—even though Louisiana had been specifically ordered by another federal court to create the majority-Black district.

Civil rights groups and the state of Louisiana then appealed that ruling to the Supreme Court. It represented an unlikely instance when Black voters and a Republican-controlled Southern state were more or less on the same side, and also a rare example of the Supreme Court delivering a victory for minority representation, given the Court’s well-documented hostility to voting rights. That includes gutting the Voting Rights Act on multiple occasions and holding that partisan gerrymandering can’t be challenged in federal court.

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... he-south/

[weatheriscool]

InteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022
·
18h
NEVADA POLLING AVERAGES (6 EC Votes)

@FiveThirtyEight

Trump: 42.7% (+6.7)
Biden: 36.0%
RFK Jr: 11.2%

538 avg:
• May 18, 2020: Biden +4.3
• Final average: Biden +5.3
• Actual Result: Biden +2.4
——
@RCPolitics

Trump: 48.0% (+6.2)
Biden: 41.8%
.
Trump:
Show more
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1791612315084759088

[weatheriscool]

InteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022
2024 GE: @CBSNewsPoll


ARIZONA
Trump 52% (+5)
Biden 47%
.
FLORIDA
Trump 54% (+9)
Biden 45%

YouGov | #4 (2.9/3.0) | 5/10-16 | 2,374 LV
https://cbsnews.com/news/trump-bid

[weatheriscool]

@DecisionDeskHQ
Polling Average

NEVADA
Trump: 50.4% (+6.8)
Biden: 43.6%
.
ARIZONA
Trump: 48.9% (+6.1)
Biden: 42.8%
.
GEORGIA
Trump: 49.4% (+6.1)
Biden: 43.3%
.
NORTH CAROLINA
Trump: 50.1% (+4.6)
Biden: 45.5%
.
MICHIGAN
Trump: 49.0% (+4.0)
Biden: 45.0%

PENNSYLVANIA
Trump: 47.7% (+1.7)
Biden: 46.0%

WISCONSIN
Trump: 47.7% (+0.8)
Biden: 46.9%
—
EC Based on polls
Trump 312 (+86)
Biden 226
—
@polymarket
odds
Trump 52% (+10)
Biden 42%

https://polymarket.com/elections
—
https://elections2024.thehill.com/national/biden

[weatheriscool]

@FiveThirtyEight
Polling Average (5/20)

National
Trump 41.3% (+1.4)
Biden 39.9%
RFK Jr 9.8%

May 20, 2020: Biden +6.0
Final average: Biden +8.4

https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1792737127421128775

[weatheriscool]

Harvard/Harris

Trump 49% (+6)
Biden 43%

With leans
Trump 53% (+6)
Biden 47%
—
Trump 45% (+5)
Biden 40%
RFK Jr 14%

https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-conten ... esults.pdf

[caltrek]

Here is a rundown of Tuesday primary election results (excluding presidential race):

https://rollcall.com/2024/05/22/key-res ... nd-idaho/

[weatheriscool]

https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1793316776488337897

@Polymarket
- Trump's odds of winning in 2024 have reached an all-time high.

April 18
Biden 45% (+2)
Trump 43%
.
May 22
Trump 56% (+17)
Biden 39%

Net 19 point swing towards Trump

[weatheriscool]

#BREAKING: President Joe Biden will not appear on Ohio’s November presidential ballot, according to Secretary of State

https://x.com/rawsalerts/status/1793335427832893579

[firestar464]

More on that by Democracy Docket:

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-al ... er-ballot/

Thankfully it's not like Ohio is a competitive state anyway.

[weatheriscool]

2024 GE: [Among Likely Voters]

Trump: 51% [+3]
Biden: 49% [-3]

Net 6 points swing towards Trump from March

[+/- change vs March]
—
• @MULawPoll
| 538: #3 (3.0/3.0)

https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1793511101302538677

[weatheriscool]

Polling USA
@USA_Polling
North Carolina Polling:

Presidential:
Trump (R): 44%
Biden (D): 42%

Governor:
Robinson (R): 39%
Stein (D): 34%

High Point U. / May 9, 2024 / n=804
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1793674955445465229