Ukraine War Watch Thread

[Vector]

[caltrek]

Oh!...

Just that it is irrefutable and obviously evident that you are not busy looking for dictionary definitions so you can check every statement by everybody about those numbers.
Is it not?

Not my job man. If you have a further point to make regarding the evidence presented, then please be my guest.

[ibm9000]

Does it matter ??

All wishful thinking and fairy-tales? No critical thinking, no analysis?
Yes, I do think it matters.

[Vector]

Does it matter ??

All wishful thinking and fairy-tales? No critical thinking, no analysis?
Yes, I do think it matters.

Sometimes, in order to survive the next nightmarish night of the war, it is better for an ordinary man in the street to tell a fairy tale. And the analysis where each figure is a human fate or life is better to give to a professionals.

By the way, I invite you to come to Ukraine, I will arrange accommodation (Kyev, Borispol, Kharkiv, Bahmut on your choice). Not a single video, not a single article, not a single analysis can be compared with real emotions and sensations.

[Vector]

[Vector]

[Vector]

[Vector]

[Vector]

[ibm9000]

real emotions and sensations.

Not the best tools for a serious analysis.

(And not what I had planned for this Christmas, anyway).
Thanks, maybe you could send the invitation to G. W. Bush.

[funkervogt]

A reminder that, whenever a person claiming to be an "ex-CIA spy" makes any kind of political or military prediction, it's probably no more useful than what you'd come up with after doing 30 minutes of internet research.

[caltrek]

A lot of the recent discussion in this thread reminds me of the adage that "newspapers are the first draft of history." Add to that Twitter feeds, government pronouncements, reporters from electronic media sources, etc. Being a "first draft", initial accounts should be taken as subject to revision. Some skepticism is not only warranted, but advisable. Still, we have to start someplace.

The methodology I recommend is to not become overly dependent upon any one information source. Contrast and compare sources, giving more weight to sources that in the past seem to have proven to be more accurate.

Take an issue like number of Russian tanks destroyed by mid-December 2022. No one estimate should be taken as the final word. Compare and contrast, and if one is truly interested, carefully study things like what is the definition of the word "tank." There are a lot of armored vehicles that most would not consider to be a "tank." My father served in such a vehicle during World War II.

Other factors include whether a source has a motivation to skew the number one way or another. If you can find a source that seems simply interested in the truth, then it is logical to give more weight to that source.

One should also be on guard for a psychological tendency to give too much weight to the very first report one reads on such matters. There may be a certain psychological investment in such early reports simply due to the reluctance of having to constantly revies one's opinion and analysis of a given situation. Particularly if an inconvenient truth is introduced.

Even a "final" draft of history may end up being a matter of stating ranges as in "by mid-December there were between X and Y number of Russian tanks (properly defined) that were destroyed and between X and Y number that were captured and put to reuse". Such "final drafts" may include "footnotes" discussing methodologies and the difficulties in arriving at final numbers. Some points of controversy may never be resolved and may simply be noted by the competent historian.

So yes, skepticism is healthy, but one has to start somewhere.

[caltrek]

Zelensky Arrives in D.C. for First Trip Since Russia Invasion Began
by Dave Lawler
Updated December 21, 2022

Introduction:

(Axios) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Washington on Wednesday for his first international trip since Russia invaded his country 300 days ago.

Driving the news: Zelensky and President Biden will have an "in-depth, strategic discussion" at the White House about the war, additional U.S. military aid and tightening sanctions on Russia, a senior U.S. official told reporters. The two will then hold a press conference before Zelensky visits Capitol Hill for meetings and to address a joint session of Congress.

• During his D.C. visit — which will last just "a few short hours," per the U.S. official — Biden announced close to $2 billion in additional U.S. military aid including, for the first time, the Patriot missile defense system.
• Congress is poised to pass $45 billion in additional military and economic aid to Ukraine this week as part of its $1.7 trillion omnibus spending bill, bringing total U.S. assistance to over $100 billion.

Yes, but: Some members of the incoming House Republican majority have expressed deep reservations about continuing to send aid to Ukraine.

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2022/12/21/zelen ... ess-biden

[weatheriscool]

US sending Patriots to Ukraine under $1.85B aid package
Source: Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Biden administration announced Wednesday that it will provide $1.85 billion in military aid to Ukraine, rolling out funding for a Patriot missile battery as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is arriving in Washington for his first known trip out of his country since Russia invaded in February.

The White House announcement came just hours before Zelenskyy was expected to arrive. The package includes $1 billion in weapons and equipment from Pentagon stocks, including the Patriot battery for the first time, and $850 million in funding through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. Part of the USAI will be used to fund a satellite communications system, which likely will include the crucial SpaceX Starlink satellite network system owned by Elon Musk.

“As Russia continues its brutal attacks against critical infrastructure in Ukraine, the United States welcomes President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Washington, D.C. today to underscore our enduring commitment to the people of Ukraine,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement, adding that the U.S. will be providing “critical new and additional military capabilities to help Ukraine defend itself from Russia’s ongoing brutal and unprovoked assault.”

-snip-



Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... b728961079

[weatheriscool]

Russian High-Tech 'Forpost' Drone Worth $6M Destroyed in Strike: Ukraine
Source: Newsweek via MSN

Ukraine forces have reportedly destroyed a $6 million Russian drone in a recent strike.

According to a Wednesday Facebook post from the General Staff of the Ukraine Armed Forces, Ukrainian anti-air forces managed to destroy one of the invading country's $6 million Forpost drones amid a series of counterstrikes on the Russian position.

Newsweek has contacted the UAF for comment.

One of the country's most expensive reconnaissance tools, Forpost drones first came to prominence in the 1980s as the default remote surveillance craft of the Israeli army before its export to a number of foreign powers across Asia and Europe.

Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ru ... r-AA15xNIM

[ibm9000]

A reminder that, whenever a person claiming to be an "ex-CIA spy" makes any kind of political or military prediction, it's probably no more useful than what you'd come up with after doing 30 minutes of internet research.

Claiming to be a spy and claiming to be telling the truth... correct?

[ibm9000]

Russia-Ukraine war live: Zelenskiy tells US Congress aid is not charity as Biden announces $1.85bn support package

Certainly not... Ukraine's economy will pay, one way or another.

He did mention the NSDP... but forgot to mention the Iraqi, heroic, fighters... and the Taliban, and the VC, and the IRA {mind, not the IRA, the Irish Republic's Army), the Haganah... and the Gauls.

[ibm9000]

Question:
"...have reportedly" is the same as "claimed"? or is there any magic around? Maybe the speaker?, the colour of the ribbon?, some healthy skepticism?

(I maybe wrong, but I think I mentioned something about that before).

[ibm9000]

I have never seen such a large and diverse mess of misinformation spouted and parroted with wild abandon about a military skirmish than what has come out of the short spate of Pakistani-Indian air battles that occurred in late February. But one aspect of those operations, in particular, has been so ridiculously mischaracterized by the media, so-called analysts, and the public in general, that the majority of narratives surrounding it have to be called out for what they are: (sic) "total bullshit".
What has come as a result of all this has been a full-on information assault of laughably childish narratives that lack any understanding of modern air combat and appear to be largely driven by blind nationalism, political spin, or straight-up stupidity, not reality or fact.
India now officially claims that they shot down a Pakistani F-16 and that Wing Commander Varthaman was the one who did it just before he himself got shot down. I have to make clear that we have zero evidence that a Pakistani F-16 was lost in combat. None. That does not mean it didn't happen, it just means that at this time we have no reason to believe it beyond taking India's word for it.
The videos and images being passed around online that supposedly support the downed F-16 claim are pure misinformation made up of repackaged old media from past incidents or blatant mistruths peddled by "open source intelligence" social media congregators and nationalist pundit accounts supporting the Indian side of the long and sad standoff between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.

It may looks familiar, it is, actually, not about Ukraine and an opinion in itself; except when providing data that can be contrasted by different, independent sources.

(I still think that if you are interested, you are going to find it. If it doesn't match your colour, it doesn't matter how many links are provided... It's thedrive, anyway).

[raklian]

Russia-Ukraine war live: Zelenskiy tells US Congress aid is not charity as Biden announces $1.85bn support package

He did mention the NSDP... but forgot to mention the Iraqi, heroic, fighters... and the Taliban, and the VC, and the IRA {mind, not the IRA, the Irish Republic's Army), the Haganah... and the Gauls.

I have never seen such a large and diverse mess of misinformation spouted and parroted with wild abandon about a military skirmish than what has come out of the short spate of Pakistani-Indian air battles that occurred in late February. But one aspect of those operations, in particular, has been so ridiculously mischaracterized by the media, so-called analysts, and the public in general, that the majority of narratives surrounding it have to be called out for what they are: (sic) "total bullshit".
What has come as a result of all this has been a full-on information assault of laughably childish narratives that lack any understanding of modern air combat and appear to be largely driven by blind nationalism, political spin, or straight-up stupidity, not reality or fact.
India now officially claims that they shot down a Pakistani F-16 and that Wing Commander Varthaman was the one who did it just before he himself got shot down. I have to make clear that we have zero evidence that a Pakistani F-16 was lost in combat. None. That does not mean it didn't happen, it just means that at this time we have no reason to believe it beyond taking India's word for it.
The videos and images being passed around online that supposedly support the downed F-16 claim are pure misinformation made up of repackaged old media from past incidents or blatant mistruths peddled by "open source intelligence" social media congregators and nationalist pundit accounts supporting the Indian side of the long and sad standoff between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.

It may looks familiar, it is, actually, not about Ukraine and an opinion in itself; except when providing data that can be contrasted by different, independent sources.

(I still think that if you are interested, you are going to find it. If it doesn't match your colour, it doesn't matter how many links are provided... It's thedrive, anyway).

Please use content that is relevant to this thread. I don't want to keep reminding you of this.

If you want to discuss the hypocrisy of the West or generally talk about news reporting biases, create a thread about it in the Off Topic & General Discussion section.