Ukraine War Watch Thread

[Yuli Ban]

Russian units near Ukraine moved into "attack positions," official says

Russia has moved some long-range artillery and rocket launchers into firing position, threatening Ukraine, according to a U.S. official.

Some Russian units have left their assembly areas — the bumper-to-bumper formations seen in satellite photos — and are beginning to move into "attack positions," according to the official. This movement marks a change since Sunday, when some of the units had left the assembly areas but had not yet taken what could be viewed as attack positions.

The U.S. believes Russia will attack Ukraine by the end of the week, although it's not yet certain what form it will take, the official said.

That's certainly news.... but it doesn't sound like good news

[Ken_J]

my bet on the Ukraine situation is that as long as Ukraine isn't moving forward with joining NATO Russia will not attack and use this as a way to suggest that The US is being paranoid and thinks everything they do is evil, etc etc. Trying to make Ukraine question if they want to be tied to paranoid militaristic countries. But the moment it looks like Ukraine is going to sign anything Russia will be 'forced to liberate their Ukrainian kin from the corrupt and manipulative dealings with anti-russian nations'. and all the while you can probably bet that while there are overt Russian shows going on there are more covert Russian actions ongoing inside Ukraine to undermine the country and set it up for either Pro Russian political future, or collapse and easier 'rescue by the Russians'.

As long as no progress is made toward NATO, Russian will just stand there, staring Ukraine down. Unless somebody does something that will be the Ferdinand Event. It feels like it would have to be something in Russia or Ukraine for now, But it depends on how Buddy Buddy China gets, and with that Tensions with N Korea, or Taiwan suddenly get put on the Table too.

[wjfox]

Ukraine-Russia tensions: Russia pulls some troops back from border

33 minutes ago

Russia says it is pulling back some of its troops from near Ukraine after a build-up prompted fears of an invasion.

The defence ministry said that large-scale drills continued but that some units were returning to their bases.

It did not say how many are leaving and it is not yet clear if it will de-escalate tensions.

More than 100,000 Russian troops have massed at Ukraine's border. Russia has always denied it is planning an attack.

A defence ministry statement, carried on Russian media, said it was withdrawing some of the troops conducting exercises in military districts bordering Ukraine.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60386141

[Ozzie guy]

The Sun (I think shitty UK newspaper) claims US intelligence told them Russia will be invading feb 16th 1AM UK time.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17655287/ ... -tomorrow/

[Ozzie guy]

The Sun (I think shitty UK newspaper) claims US intelligence told them Russia will be invading feb 16th 1AM UK time.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17655287/ ... -tomorrow/

There are more news sources saying the same thing now for example.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-new ... amp%3Bamp=

https://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/u ... m-23100170

[Yuli Ban]

Are they even trying?

The Russian TASS news site reported that an attempted terrorist attack had been thwarted in Luhansk, a city controlled by pro-Russian separatists in the disputed Donbas region, on Tuesday, amid continuing concerns of a possible Russian invasion into Ukraine.

The report claimed that the Ukrainian Defense Ministry and Ukrainian special services may have been involved.

[Yuli Ban]

They AREN'T!


Holy cow, that's just morbidly funny how little effort was put into making this even remotely believable.

[Yuli Ban]

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday claimed, without evidence, that "genocide" is occurring in the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine, where Kremlin-backed rebels have been fighting a war with Ukrainian forces since 2014.

"In our view what is now happening in Donbas is genocide," Putin said during a joint press conference in Moscow with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, per BBC News. Similarly, Putin in December said the conflict in the Donbas "looks like genocide."

Russia in 2014 justified its military intervention in Ukraine by claiming ethnic Russians were being threatened, assertions the US fervently rejected. "What's happening there is not based on actual concern for Russian nationals or Russian speakers inside of Ukraine, but is based on Russia seeking, through force, to exert influence on a neighboring country. That is not how international law is supposed to operate," President Barack Obama said of the situation in Ukraine at the time. Putin's comments on Tuesday came as Russia said that it was pulling back an unspecified number of its troops from Ukraine's border — a claim met with extreme skepticism by Ukraine and the West.

"Genocide"

[Yuli Ban]

Ukraine's defence ministry and two banks came under a cyber attack on Tuesday that shut access to the ministry's website, Ukraine's information security centre said.

The Ukrainian Centre for Strategic Communications and Information Security, which is part of the culture ministry, did not say who it blamed for the attack, but a statement suggested it was pointing the finger at Russia.

"It is not ruled out that the aggressor used tactics of little dirty tricks because its aggressive plans are not working out on a large scale," it said.

Kyiv has blamed Moscow for similar attacks in the past, since Russia began massing more than 100,000 troops near the frontier.

A message on the home page of the Ukrainian defence ministry website said it was under maintenance. The ministry tweeted that its website was apparently under a cyber attack and it was working on restoring the access to it.

Just invade and get it over with

[Yuli Ban]

Russia's lower house of parliament voted on Tuesday to ask President Vladimir Putin to recognise two Russian-backed breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent and the European Union told Moscow not to follow through.

The move by the State Duma, if approved, could further inflame a wider standoff over a Russian military build-up near Ukraine that has fuelled Western fears that Moscow could attack. Russia denies any invasion plans and has accused the West of hysteria.

Recognition of the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics could kill the Minsk peace process in eastern Ukraine, where a conflict in the region known as Donbass between government forces and Moscow-backed separatists has cost 15,000 lives.

"Kyiv is not observing the Minsk agreements. Our citizens and compatriots who live in Donbass need our help and support," Vyacheslav Volodin, the State Duma speaker, wrote on social media.

[wjfox]

Holy cow, that's just morbidly funny how little effort was put into making this even remotely believable.

Indeed. Laughable.

[caltrek]

Ukrainian Defense Ministry Hit by DDoS During Tense Standoff with Russia
by Corin Faife
February 15, 2022

https://www.theverge.com/2022/2/15/2293 ... escalation

Introduction:

(The Verge) On Tuesday, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence suffered from a DDoS (Distributed Denial of Service) attack that prevented users from accessing its website, and two Ukrainian banks lost access to online banking services, according to statements from the government.

In a tweet posted at around 7PM local time (12PM ET), the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence said that its website was probably being hit with a DDoS attack and that work to restore service was underway. Four hours later, the site still could not be accessed.

The DDoS attack comes as Russia has claimed to be de-escalating potential conflict by withdrawing troops from the Ukraine border — a statement that was met with “cautious optimism” by NATO but has also faced skepticism amid a series of contradictory signals from the Russian military.

At the same time, two banks also suffered from a denial-of-service attack that took ATMs offline and prevented some clients from withdrawing or transferring funds online.

According to a statement from the Ukrainian government’s Center for Strategic Communications, PrivatBank faced a “massive DDoS attack” that blocked many online banking services, including payments and balance inquiries, but did not affect core banking services or threaten customer funds. Oschadbank also lost all online banking functionality, according to the statement. A few hours later, another statement from the Ukrainian government said that the banks had resumed online service.

[caltrek]

What We don’t Know About War and Peace
by Dylan Matthews
February 16, 2022

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022 ... r-conflict

Introduction:

(Vox) As I’m writing this, a Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine looks quite possible.

The “superforecasters” at the Good Judgment Project, an organization led by professors at the University of Pennsylvania that recruits non-professional forecasters and collates the predictions of the most historically accurate among them, went from predicting peace to narrowly predicting a war in recent days. Despite their lack of credentials, the superforecasters have a pretty strong track record at this kind of prediction; in the past, they’ve outperformed intelligence analysts who have access to classified data.

It’s always possible, of course, that Russia’s extensive military buildup on its borders with Ukraine, and those of its ally Belarus, is a feint meant to extract concessions from the West, like a promise that Ukraine will never join NATO. In the past 24 hours, Russia announced it was pulling back some troops from the Ukrainian border, a hopeful sign that the standoff could resolve without bloodshed. But some observers remain skeptical that the pullback is real, and Russia remains in a position to launch an invasion if it so chooses.

Further Extracts:

The truth is that understanding interstate war, and war in general, is really, really hard, and the attempt to develop rigorous, testable theories about when such wars break out and why is still in its infancy. Studying war is hard for the simple reason that we lack sufficient data points.
…
There are the offensive realists, who think every state wants to achieve at least regional hegemony and will fight to maintain it; the defensive realists, who think every state’s core drive is for survival; the “democratic peace” liberals, who think the liberal values and open communication of representative governments prevent war; and the constructivists, who emphasize that what counts as international security varies from time to time and place to place.

Book by an "offensive realist: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0022Q8CVY/?a ... pldnSite=1

Example of a "defensive realist": https://www.amazon.com/Theory-Internati ... pldnSite=1

Citation of a “democratic peace” liberal: https://www.amazon.com/Grasping-Democra ... pldnSite=1

Book by a "constructivist": https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00B18ST4E/re ... pldnSite=1

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

Russia added 7k troops near Ukraine border, says US official
Source: Yahoo News

Russia actually added another 7,000 troops to the region, according to White House officials on Wednesday as satellite images captured in the last 48 hours seem to bolster skepticism the United States and its NATO allies have about the Russian assertions that it is withdrawing forces surrounding Ukraine.

The White House statements to Associated Press reporters about the new Russian troop buildup follows reports from the State Department that Russia has not withdrawn troops. During a televised address on Tuesday, President Joe Biden said that there were more than 150,000 Russian troops arrayed around Ukraine, and that, despite protestations otherwise, they were poised to attack.

Read more: https://news.yahoo.com/russia-added-7k- ... 07608.html

[Yuli Ban]

High amounts of shelling currently going on in Donetsk. Could increase tensions.

[andmar74]

It could deter Putin from invading that the Russian forces will likely suffer heavy losses, and the US would be able to study the Russian weaknesses.
It doesn't seem like a smart move to invade.

[andmar74]

Whether he invades Ukraine or backs down, Putin has harmed Russia

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/ ... med-russia

[weatheriscool]

I doubt Putin invades ukraine! He is just doing what the little guy in north korea likes to do from time to time. It works to get him special things!

[Ozzie guy]

A statement by the Maoists doing revolution in the philippines on the Ukraine crisis.

Edit deleted link as I am sure wjfox does not want links from communists doing revolution on this site lol.

The Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) denounces the US imperialists for provocations and relentless warmongering in Ukraine in the hope of sparking an armed conflict and proxy war with Russia. The US government, in collusion with American big media and the military industrial complex, has been whipping up the threat of an “imminent invasion” by Russia in Ukraine to justify heightened military spending to raise the sales of military weapons. It is also rapidly arming its puppet regime in Ukraine to carry out aggressive action against the independent people’s republics in the Donbass region.

Since last year, the US has been provoking Russia by pushing for the inclusion of Ukraine into the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and by taking measures to oppose the commercial operations of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

The US puppet regime in Ukraine has been pushing for the country’s inclusion into the NATO, a move which Russia considers a “red line” as it would allow the US and its military allies to position troops, tanks, missiles and other military matériel right next to its border. The NATO currently has 30 member states which bind themselves to the principle than an attack against one is an attack against all and the commitment to defend one another. Russia fears that the inclusion of Ukraine into the NATO, which is being compared to Mexico joining a Chinese- or Russian-led alliance, will reinforce the US network of military bases in its state of Alaska, in Poland, Romania and other countries close to the Russian border.

To further provoke Russia, the US has been opposing the operations of the Nord Stream 2, a natural gas pipeline that is capable of transporting twice the amount that is currently being supplied by Russia to Germany, France, Italy and the rest of western Europe. The construction of the pipeline that goes through the Baltic Sea was completed last year. It has yet to start operation because of US opposition and demand for Europe to buy US shale oil and thus favor American fracking interests. The US has been arm-twisting Germany to turn back on its contracts with Russia.

In the face of US provocations, Russia positioned tanks and an estimated 100,000 troops in its western borders with Ukraine, as well as in the southern borders of Belarus, a country north of Ukraine, where Russia maintains a military base. Russia described these as part of routine training and exercises and declared no intention of aggression against Ukraine. These, however, are clearly part of Russia’s political and diplomatic tactics to oppose moves for Ukraine’s inclusion into the NATO and seal its agreements for the operation of the Nord Stream 2. Russia is pushing for renewed negotiations to reaffirm previous agreements surrounding the Donbass region, explicit prohibition of the eastward expansion of NATO to Ukraine and other countries, and a ban on US and NATO intermediate-range missile in countries within striking distance of Russia.

The Biden government has responded to the Russian political and military moves with outright bellicosity. For weeks now, the US has been beating the drums of war to justify plans of increasing military aid and stepping up weapons sales to Ukraine under the guise of opposing the “imminent invasion” of Ukraine by Russia’s forces, a claim that US officials have failed to provide evidence for. Western media has helped whip up Washington propaganda by calling for “decisive action.”

The US congress aims to triple military aid to Ukraine this year to $1.2 billion including more than $500 million worth of foreign military financing to sell excess weapons, $200 million worth of drawdown authorization for the US president to transfer war matériel in US stockpiles to non-US militaries, and other measures. The US has already allowed its NATO allies Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to send US-made weapons to Ukraine. The US, furthermore, has offered a $1 billion sovereign loan guarantee and support from the International Monetary Fund to secure its puppet regime in Ukraine.

By flooding Ukraine with weapons, the US aims to stoke the war of its puppet Ukrainian government against the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic in the Donbass region (west of Ukraine), and press for the re-annexation of Crimea, in the hope that this will further provoke Russia. Such aggressive action violates the Minsk II Agreement which gives the Donbass region a special status in Ukraine.

Clearly, the biggest beneficiary of US provocations and warmongering in Ukraine is the military industrial complex and the Pentagon (Department of Defense) which was allotted a record $768 billion budget for 2022. After withdrawing from Afghanistan, the US imperialists are bent on inciting another long-drawn armed conflict onto which it can pour its surplus arms and induce production of more weapons. While the US is constantly pushing to raise the temperature of tensions against China, prospects of an open war in the Asia-Pacific is still not imminent.

The US is pushing its NATO allies to support its heightened military response and threats of economic sanctions against Russia. Some US allies, however, are not ready to ride along with US policy. Germany, which relies largely on Russian natural gas to fuel its economy and provide heating to homes, is not ready to bow to US demands for NATO countries to deploy troops and weapons to Ukraine. Even France has rejected the US line of an “imminent invasion” by Russia. Even the Ukrainian government is wary of US warmongering which has resulted in economic instability and capital flight.

Ukraine was a former socialist country under the Soviet Union. Although it suffered under the errors of overly rapid socialist collectivization of agriculture, its people enjoyed the fruits of industrialization and social progress that guaranteed high standards of living. Ukraine was reduced to an appendage of imperial Russia as a supplier of grains during the period of capitalist restoration under modern revisionism from the late 1950s onwards. All-out neoliberal reforms which dismantled the structures of public service (including free education and health service) pushing down the people’s standards of living have been carried out since the breakup of the USSR in 1991 and, especially since the installation of a US puppet regime after the 2014 “revolution.”

The people of Ukraine are being made to suffer from interimperialist conflict between the US and its NATO allies, and Russia. The progressive and revolutionary forces in Ukraine and across the world must arouse, organize and mobilize the people to demand an end to US warmongering and provocation in Ukraine and demand the imperialist powers to negotiate and reach a peaceful settlement of their conflicts.

US provocations and Russian bullying in Ukraine is a portent of even worse forms of armed conflict amid rising contradictions between imperialist powers.

The global capitalist crisis is pushing imperialist countries to redivide the world to expand their own spheres of investment and influence. While the imperialists are raising walls to protect their own national economies, they are more aggressively pushing for neoliberal reforms in the semicolonial and semifeudal countries and less developed capitalist countries to allow them to expand their plunder and intensify the exploitation and oppression of workers and other toiling people. This is creating ever more favorable conditions for the proletariat to carry out revolutionary struggles for national liberation and socialism.