Ukraine War Watch Thread

[Yuli Ban]

Canadian special forces operators have been deployed to Ukraine amid rising tensions between the NATO military alliance and Russia, Global News has learned.

The deployment of a small contingent from the Canadian Special Operations Regiment comes as diplomatic talks aimed at staving off an armed conflict in Ukraine have faltered, and an estimated 100,000 Russian troops remain camped on Ukraine’s border.

Sources told Global News that the Canadian special operations presence is part of an attempt by NATO allies to deter Russian aggression in Ukraine, and to identify ways to assist the Ukrainian government.

The unit has also been tasked with helping to develop evacuation plans for Canadian diplomatic personnel in the event of a full-scale invasion, sources said.

[Yuli Ban]

Could very well see the modern equivalent of the Yugoslav Wars erupt within weeks

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]

White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters on Tuesday that the U.S. believes that Russia could carry out an attack on Ukraine “at any point,” underscoring the immediacy of the threat.

“Our view is this is an extremely dangerous situation. We're now at a stage where Russia could at any point launch an attack in Ukraine,” Psaki told reporters at a briefing, adding later that her language was “more stark than we have been.”

Secretary of State Antony Blinken plans to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Friday as the U.S. seeks to ward off an invasion of Ukraine by Russia, which has amassed 100,000 troops on the border with Ukraine and recently moved forces to Belarus for joint military drills.

The meeting follows high-level diplomatic talks between U.S. and Russian officials and NATO in Europe last week. Blinken and Lavrov spoke by phone on Tuesday and agreed to meet.

[Yuli Ban]

Russia is a sending an unspecified number of troops from the country’s far east to Belarus for major war games, officials said Tuesday, a deployment that will further beef up Russian military assets near Ukraine amid Western fears of a planned invasion.

Amid the soaring tensions, the White House warned that Russia could attack its neighbor at “any point,” while the U.K. delivered a batch of anti-tank weapons to Ukraine.

Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin said the joint drills with Belarus would involve practicing a joint response to external threats.

Ukrainian officials have warned that Russia could launch an attack on Ukraine from several directions, including from its ally Belarus.

The U.S. again stressed its concern Tuesday, with White House press secretary Jen Psaki describing the Russian forces’ move into Belarus as part of as “extremely dangerous situation.”

“We’re now at a stage where Russia could at any point launch an attack in Ukraine,” she said.

[Yuli Ban]

[andmar74]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/18/euro ... index.html

Ukraine has warned that Russia has "almost completed" its build-up of forces that could be used for an offensive against the country, compounding fears that Moscow could launch an invasion at any time.

[caltrek]

Beware the Hawkish Pundits Pushing for War Over Ukraine
by Gregory Shupak
January 19, 2022

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2022 ... er-ukraine

Extract:

(Common Dreams) With the United States and Russia in a standoff over NATO expansion and Russian troop deployments along the Ukrainian border, US corporate media outlets are demanding that Washington escalate the risk of a broader war while misleading their audiences about important aspects of the conflict.
…
Furthermore, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)—a US-led military alliance hostile to Russia—has grown by 14 countries since the end of the Cold War. NATO expanded right up to Russia's border in 2004, in violation of the promises made by the elder George Bush and Bill Clinton to Russian leaders Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin (Jacobin, 7/16/18).
…
US "military measures" have tended to increase, rather than decrease, the temperature. Last summer, the US and Ukraine led multinational naval maneuvers held in the Black Sea, an annual undertaking called Sea Breeze. The US-financed exercises were the largest in decades, involving 32 ships, 40 aircraft and helicopters, and 5,000 soldiers from 24 countries (Deutsche Welle, 6/29/21). These steps didn't create a "stable Europe": Russia conducted a series of parallel drills in the Black Sea and southwestern Russia (AP, 7/10/21), and would go on to amass troops along the Ukrainian border.
…
That it might be possible to reach an agreement in which Ukraine remains neutral between NATO and Russia (Responsible Statecraft, 1/3/22) is not the sort of possibility that (Max) Boot (writing in the Washington Post) thinks is worth exploring. He apparently would prefer to dramatically increase the danger of armed conflict between two nuclear powers.

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]

Ukrainian landowners and even a cafe are taking the country’s NATO membership drive to a new level: they are writing NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, offering private land to host NATO bases and appealing for the Alliance to accept them as private members.
Amid the growing scare of a Russian invasion and Russian demands that NATO not expand eastward, Ukrainians are asking to join NATO in a personal capacity and offering to donate their private land parcels for the establishment of a NATO base. Two such letters were sent by residents of south-eastern Ukraine, which is known to be more NATO-sceptic than the rest of the country.

One Ukrainian who offered his land plot to NATO is Odesa entrepreneur Demian Hamul. He posted a screenshot of a letter he claims he sent to Nato Secretary Jens Stoltenberg on his Facebook page, offering to give up his land plot in Kirovohradska Oblast (central Ukraine) for a NATO base.

[Yuli Ban]

Ukranian intelligence agencies are warning that Russia has “almost completed” its build up of troops near the border and invasion appears imminent.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday that Russia could launch a new attack on Ukraine at “very short notice” as he met the country’s president on the first leg of a new diplomatic push to avert war.

Russia said tension around Ukraine was increasing and it was still waiting for a written U.S. response to its sweeping demands for security guarantees from the West.

[Yuli Ban]

The West faces the moment of truth, which has started the countdown in wait for the adoption of Russian proposals on security guarantees addressed to the United States and NATO, Konstantin Gavrilov, the head of the Russian delegation at the Vienna Negotiations on Military Security and Arms Control, said on Wednesday.

Gavrilov spoke at the meeting of the OSCE Forum for Security Cooperation, which is first in 2022.

"There arrives a moment of truth when the West either accepts our proposals or other ways will be found to safeguard Russia’s security," Gavrilov said. "I am convinced that with goodwill and a willingness to compromise in any situation, it is possible to find a way out to mutually acceptable solutions. We are running out of time. The countdown begins."

The Russian diplomat believes that what is at stake is to minimize military spending and to resolve the security issues, which are not pressing for Russia alone, but for all the nations in Eurasia and the Euro-Atlantic area as well.

Gavrilov pointed out that the NATO actions had resulted in fragmentation of the pan-European space and inflicted huge damage to the authority of the OSCE, which has turned into a hostage of the narrow agenda of the "collective West."

[Yuli Ban]

Russian lawmakers called on parliament on Wednesday to appeal to President Vladimir Putin to recognize two pro-Russian breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent states, amid Western suspicions that Moscow may be planning to invade its neighbor.

A Russian troop build-up https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/bl ... 2022-01-19 near Ukraine has stirred worries among Western countries that a war could break out between the former Soviet neighbors, whose ties have been fraught since the annexation of Crimea by Moscow and the start of a Russia-backed insurgency in eastern Ukraine in 2014.

In a draft parliamentary resolution, 11 lawmakers — including Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov — said that Russia needed to officially recognize the two regions as independent to safeguard their residents from external threats.

[weatheriscool]

Biden says he expects Russia will invade Ukraine
Source: New York Times

President Biden on Wednesday said he expected President Vladimir Putin of Russia would invade Ukraine, delivering a grim assessment of the ability of the United States and its European allies to persuade the Russian leader not to send troops across the border.

“Do I think he’ll test the West, test the United States and NATO, as significantly as he can? Yes, I think he will,” Mr. Biden told reporters during a near two-hour news conference in the East Room of the White House, adding: “But I think he will pay a serious, and dear price for it that he doesn’t think now will cost him what it’s going to cost him. And I think he will regret having done it.”

Asked to clarify whether he was accepting that an invasion is coming, Mr. Biden said: “My guess is he will move in. He has to do something.”

The president’s comments came as Russia has marshaled more than 100,000 troops to the border with Ukraine over the past several months. Mr. Biden has vowed extensive sanctions if an invasion happens, but he suggested that they would not be enough to keep Mr. Putin from moving forward with military action.

Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/01/19 ... -in-office

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]

A Canadian warship departed for Europe and the Black Sea near Russia on Wednesday, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau admitted to fears of a Russian invasion in Ukraine.

Trudeau went on to accuse Russia of trying to start a fight with Ukraine and promised Canada's support to the Ukrainian people, who are on edge as 100,000 Russian troops sit on their country's eastern border.

Yet the prime minister stopped short when asked for details, including whether the government will extend a 200-soldier Canadian training mission in Ukraine whose mandate is set to expire at the end of March.

He also declined to say whether Canada would answer Ukraine's long-standing request for arms, after Britain this week announced it would supply anti-tank weapons to the eastern European country.

“We're looking at many different factors when we make decisions on how to best support the people of Ukraine,” he said. “The bottom line is we will be there to continue supporting the people of Ukraine through multiple levels and layers of support.”

Trudeau also wouldn't say what would happen to the 200 Canadian soldiers currently stationed across Ukraine as well as their diplomatic colleagues in Kyiv should the Russians invade, except to assert that “contingencies” are being prepared.