Future Timeline

After three months of war, there is no much point in arguing with each other, so it's time for a poll.. I don’t think some additional explanations are needed here, the questions are quite obvious. And, of course, feel free to describe how and when and why this outcome (you voted for) going to happen.

I think something else will happen: A cease-fire will be declared after Russia has taken control of large parts of eastern and southern Ukraine (it already has conquered most of it). Ukraine will not formally surrender the lost territory, but the fighting will die down nonetheless. Most Russians will believe that the price their country had to pay for the extra Ukrainian territory wasn't worth it.

funkervogt wrote: ↑Wed May 25, 2022 6:09 pm I think something else will happen: A cease-fire will be declared after Russia has taken control of large parts of eastern and southern Ukraine (it already has conquered most of it). Ukraine will not formally surrender the lost territory, but the fighting will die down nonetheless. Most Russians will believe that the price their country had to pay for the extra Ukrainian territory wasn't worth it.

That still falls into "Decisive Russia's victory" category. As for "Ukraine will not formally surrender the lost territory" - well, as modern history shows, this is almost impossible to force the defeated country to recognize the loss of territory. Even Serbia (otherwise fully pro-Western) did not recognized the loss of Kosovo.

Of course you can vote (or abstain) as you wish.

Putin's rule gets unexpectedly undermined by a group at Kremlin spooked by Russia's utter economic and diplomatic isolation by the world except for few countries. His replacement will recall Russian forces from Ukraine, allowing the Ukrainians to quickly reclaim Donbas and Crimea, and a peace treaty will be signed with Russia forced to pay reparations to Ukraine as the condition for lifting economic sanctions imposed on it. Ukraine, Sweden and Finland have joined NATO as a show of warning to Russia not to make the mistake again.

Certain Russian user wrote: ↑Wed May 25, 2022 6:18 pm

funkervogt wrote: ↑Wed May 25, 2022 6:09 pm I think something else will happen: A cease-fire will be declared after Russia has taken control of large parts of eastern and southern Ukraine (it already has conquered most of it). Ukraine will not formally surrender the lost territory, but the fighting will die down nonetheless. Most Russians will believe that the price their country had to pay for the extra Ukrainian territory wasn't worth it.

That still falls into "Decisive Russia's victory" category. As for "Ukraine will not formally surrender the lost territory" - well, as modern history shows, this is almost impossible to force the defeated country to recognize the loss of territory. Even Serbia (otherwise fully pro-Western) did not recognized the loss of Kosovo.

But the outcome I described is also a Pyrrhic victory for Russia. As I said, Russia wins, but at a cost that is so high that most Russians don't think the war was worth it.

None of the four voting options you created match what I think will happen, so I can't vote for any of them.

I voted Russian decisive victory, although I think the reality will be both decisive and pyrrhic. I do think that Russia's control will end up being greater than just Crimea and the Donbass - the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts (if/when the rest is taken) will likely stay under Russian control too, as well as the parts of Kharkiv oblast currently taken by Russia. I think there's also a strong possibility that Russia will eventually take the Mykolaiv and Odessa oblasts, but not for a while to come and not without even greater efforts than they've already made elsewhere.

That said, this war has already been a costly one, and even though Ukrainian casualty estimates for the Russian army are not exactly trustworthy, Russia has still lost many thousands of men. I'm also not as sure as I once was that there will be regime change in Kiev leading to disarmament and neutrality. It's possible, say if when Russia finishes taking the rest of the Donbass, it presents Kiev with a peace deal and they accept... however, I don't think they'll give up even to cut their own losses. Either they die fighting Russia until the end, or they die at the hands of their own people for treachery if they accept any sort of surrender. Without any good option, it seems the Kiev regime is currently choosing the former.

funkervogt wrote: ↑Wed May 25, 2022 6:23 pm

Certain Russian user wrote: ↑Wed May 25, 2022 6:18 pm

funkervogt wrote: ↑Wed May 25, 2022 6:09 pm I think something else will happen: A cease-fire will be declared after Russia has taken control of large parts of eastern and southern Ukraine (it already has conquered most of it). Ukraine will not formally surrender the lost territory, but the fighting will die down nonetheless. Most Russians will believe that the price their country had to pay for the extra Ukrainian territory wasn't worth it.

That still falls into "Decisive Russia's victory" category. As for "Ukraine will not formally surrender the lost territory" - well, as modern history shows, this is almost impossible to force the defeated country to recognize the loss of territory. Even Serbia (otherwise fully pro-Western) did not recognized the loss of Kosovo.

But the outcome I described is also a Pyrrhic victory for Russia. As I said, Russia wins, but at a cost that is so high that most Russians don't think the war was worth it.

None of the four voting options you created match what I think will happen, so I can't vote for any of them.

I disagree Russia even wins. Western nations are plowing increasingly sophisticated weapons into Ukraine at an intensifying pace while Russia is losing troops and equipment by the week, not to mention they're getting more demoralized. The conflict may drag on longer than we think but we can see the writing on the wall already.

Those who favor a Russia victory are ignoring the fact Ukrainians have 700,000 fighters aided by U.S. intelligence which is second to none. And then you add the small inconvenient tidbit they seem to ignore - Putin is facing a potential coup by a faction in the military and intelligence apparatus who oppose the war. The possibility becomes more real as Russians keep losing troops and equipment, a reality that is likely to continue in the weeks to come.

If I were an observer watching this conflict, I would lean on Ukraine coming up on top with Russia losing due to factors outside of military strength.

Those who favor a Russia victory are ignoring the fact Ukrainians have 700,000 fighters aided by U.S. intelligence which is second to none. And then you add the small inconvenient tidbit they seem to ignore - Putin is facing a potential coup by a faction in the military and intelligence apparatus who oppose the war. The possibility becomes more real as Russians keep losing troops and equipment, a reality that is likely to continue in the weeks to come.

The leaked intelligence reports about Putin being on the verge of overthrow or the verge of death have been consistently wrong. Don't trust them.

raklian wrote: ↑Wed May 25, 2022 6:28 pm I disagree Russia even wins... The conflict may drag on longer than we think but we can see the writing on the wall already.

I too see the writings, but we're clearly staring on two different walls. In April I was a bit frustrated by the lack of progress on the battlefields and was afraid of "Russia's Pyrrhic victory". In May, however, everything has changed...

Anyway, thank you, and everyone, for your posts. Like wine, these posts will become only better with time passed.

Where's the option for "Years perhaps decades of needless conflict that's not worth it no matter how much territory they may or may not obtain"? Because that. This could turn into Russia's own version of America's unending War on Terror/Afganistan/Iraq.

Vakanai wrote: ↑Thu May 26, 2022 2:04 am This could turn into Russia's own version of America's unending War on Terror/Afganistan/Iraq.

I doubt it since they directly border Russia to the East and north

I think Ukraine is hellbent on never surrendering so victory for ether Russia or Ukraine will be decisive.

Ozzie guy wrote: ↑Thu May 26, 2022 3:15 am I think Ukraine is hellbent on never surrendering so victory for ether Russia or Ukraine will be decisive.

Good for them, they shouldn't surrender.
Sadly Putin is hellbent on victory at any cost.

This article describes what I think is the likely scenario for the end of the Ukraine War.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia- ... ult-2022-5

Russia takes over some more land in eastern and perhaps southern Ukraine (where Russian-speakers are in the majority) and then declares victory. In spite of their anger and desire to take back their lost territory, the Ukrainians simply lack the strength to push the Russian troops out--after months of war, their economy will be wrecked, their troops will be exhausted, and the Russians will have natural defensive advantages against them. Arrivals of donated weapons from the West will not give Ukraine enough of a military advantage to kick out the Russians.

The Western coalition against Russia will start to fracture for various reasons, and poor countries affected by rising food and fertilizer prices (and perhaps famine and riots) will put growing pressure on both sides to end the war. Ukraine will begrudgingly sign a cease-fire with Russia, the fighting will stop, and both countries will start exporting grain and fertilizer again, though heavy sanctions in other areas will stay in place against Russia.

The question is how many people will die.

2) Russia's Pyrrhic victory (Russia controls Crimea and Donbass but nothing else)

I wouldn't really go so far as to consider it a pyrrhic victory - especially when I compare it to examples of pyrrhic victories in history books, where the victory meant having won something that's hardly worth anything.

Sure, Russia has wasted way more lives and resources than they planned in order to get an entire country, and they didn't get said entire country. But completing a land bridge to the black sea and all the rich resources in its path.. that's worth a lot. It's also worth enough for many to consider Putin's barbaric military aggression a winning move, quite possibly inspiring other loony leaders out there just itching for modern conquest.

The world is in dire need of a long overdue, strong message that it no longer pays to try and relay borders through devious colonization (Crimea) or sheer military force (Donbass). And I fear that Russia managing to root their feet into the Donbass region could stall that message for decades to come.

My source of optimism in this is how Russia has lost any nuance that keeps them from their reputation as the bad guys. That, and I believe it's an inevitable thing for people to ultimately desire democracy and humanism. In a time of fast and free information, it's easy for anyone to get a taste of that. The Russian regime (or the Taliban, or any Shariah government for that matter) can intimidate and kill until they've used up the last ruble to delay the natural progression of civilization through chaos, but they'll never win against time.

funkervogt wrote: ↑Wed Jun 01, 2022 3:14 pm This article describes what I think is the likely scenario for the end of the Ukraine War.
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia- ... ult-2022-5

I can agree with nearly everything you've quoted above. Except:

funkervogt wrote: ↑Wed Jun 01, 2022 3:14 pm ...after months of war, their economy will be wrecked, their troops will be exhausted... Ukraine will begrudgingly sign a cease-fire with Russia...

This is based on the assumption that Ukrainian elite are those making decisions. They are not. The ceasefire only depends on the strategy of Ukraine's real masters in Washington, London or Brussels. If they decide enough is enough - Ukraine will surrender. If, however, they'll consider that an endless war with exchange of 20-50 thousand Ukrainian lives for 1-2 thousand Russian ones monthly worth it - then, I assure you, "Ukraine" will "decide" to fight and will "proudly" refuse any negotiations no matter what. In your Western media, probably, this will be portrayed as "unprecedented manifestation of the Spirit of Freedom", or some other pompous nonsense like that. And only a very few will understand this is not at all about freedom, but quite the opposite.

One way or another, "the writing is on the wall already" as one man here said. And they'd better surrender as soon as possible, this is in their own interests.

Certain Russian user wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 5:52 pm

funkervogt wrote: ↑Wed Jun 01, 2022 3:14 pm This article describes what I think is the likely scenario for the end of the Ukraine War.
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia- ... ult-2022-5

I can agree with nearly everything you've quoted above. Except:

funkervogt wrote: ↑Wed Jun 01, 2022 3:14 pm ...after months of war, their economy will be wrecked, their troops will be exhausted... Ukraine will begrudgingly sign a cease-fire with Russia...

This is based on the assumption that Ukrainian elite are those making decisions. They are not. The ceasefire only depends on the strategy of Ukraine's real masters in Washington, London or Brussels.

I didn't agree with that analysis. It is a (probably intended) insult to Ukraine. and not an otherwise accurate description. Washington, London, and Brussels may be allied with Ukraine, but that hardly makes them their "masters." Even the alternative suggested, that elites rule over Ukraine in the same sense that royalty ruled over their citizens, is highly misleading. Elites are making decisions, but it seems abundantly clear that they are largely supported by Ukrainians in those decisions. Said Ukrainians do not want to be ruled by Russia. Instead they are struggling toward democratic rule. Those on the extreme left may sneer at this democracy as "bourgeois democracy", but clearly even that is far more democratic than anything that Russia has to offer, at least while Putin remains in charge. I don't expect you to agree with that, but I don't see the point in letting your opinion stand without being challenged.

If they decide enough is enough - Ukraine will surrender. If, however, they'll consider that an endless war with exchange of 20-50 thousand Ukrainian lives for 1-2 thousand Russian ones monthly worth it - then, I assure you, "Ukraine" will "decide" to fight and will "proudly" refuse any negotiations no matter what. In your Western media, probably, this will be portrayed as "unprecedented manifestation of the Spirit of Freedom", or some other pompous nonsense like that. And only a very few will understand this is not at all about freedom, but quite the opposite.

One way or another, "the writing is on the wall already" as one man here said. And they'd better surrender as soon as possible, this is in their own interests.

Again, it is not "pompous nonsense." With all due respect, it is your analysis which contains nothing but "pompous nonsense." It is not in their interest to be Putin's slaves, or be subject to his genocidal whims. At best, their surrender might save the lives of a few Russian soldiers, and that is all.

So, if you consider Ukraine part of Russia, then this is a civil war. Putin's strategy was to divide and conquer, to get elements in the West to fight with each other. Instead they are becoming more united by the day in resisting Putin, while you folks have plunged into civil war. Even as more and more sophisticated weapons are poring into Ukrainian hands in their struggle to be free. You may dismiss this as empty rhetoric (as opposed to analysis) but you do so at your own country's peril.

Regardless of whether or not it actually ends with a phyrric victory on Russia's behalf, we're all screwed either ways.

Doozer wrote: ↑Fri Jul 01, 2022 6:23 am Regardless of whether or not it actually ends with a phyrric victory on Russia's behalf, we're all screwed either ways.

Why do you say that?