Ozzie guy wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 7:59 am
The existence of this video signifies to me that AI is now a mainstream topic amongst young people. (ignore dislike ratio it's due to some youtube drama or something.)
Imagine being in 2014 and finding out that in 2024 we would have normal youth debating over AGI on a mainstream YouTube channel. Honestly I am unshocked because the culture shift has bubbled up over time but I feel like I should be very shocked.
AGI is not here yet but you can already feel the flow of culture towards craziness as we get closer to the actual singularity.
Sorry but who are these?
It will be mainstream when I see it being reported or a scare on TV which is not the case at all here.
wjfox wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 8:41 am
Kurzweil is looking and sounding noticeably frailer now.
I don't think he has much longer left.
Sad to see it's like his ageing a year every 3 months, mind you there are some people such as Noam Chomsky who look like they are at deaths door but just keep going on past normal life expectancy.
Here are some recent photos featuring some chosen famous people born in 1948 (same year as R.K.):
Jean Reno (actor)
Samuel L. Jackson (actor)
Charles III (king)
Anne Queffélec (concert pianist)
They might not live longer than Kurzweil, but I think they do look better than him in their older age. Reversing or at least slowing down aging would be a very important and very much needed achievement. If Singularity happens, I think it's guaranteed that if humans survive, they won't be aging like we are after Singularity. However, I believe Technological Singularity is not necessary for big increases in human (or pet) longevity and improvements in mental and physical health. Even without Singularity, they can get significantly better by 2055.
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
Kevin Kelly (born in 1952) has had more success in his predictions than Kurzweil, believe it or not. And he traveled a lot, largely by walking and cycling. He authored multiple books, including photography books and has given many lectures. Here's his website: https://kk.org/
Kevin has been critical of Kurzweil, and guess what, so far he has been right! I don't think he is 100% (or even 80%) correct, but it's worth listening to him, here's an interesting half an hour multi-topic talk from a year ago:
I believe that during the next 30 years there will be some improvement in healthspans. Even true age reversal might become possible in that timeframe (judging by current achievements in that area). Dealing with illness and recovering will be at a more advanced level and current level medicine will be cheaper and much more widely available. Genetic engineering will be practiced much more often, on a much wider scale than today. Isaac Arthur agrees. Biggest changes will be seen in artificial intelligence, the energy sector, food production and transportation (electrification and automation as well as building new bridges, tunnels and roads). Virtual and augmented reality will probably become somewhat advanced by 2054 (compared to now, when it barely works). They won't be in their very very early infancy like they are in 2024. Rocket launches to Moon and Mars will become an every week thing by 2054 and there will be some serious talk about constructing a space elevator. In 2054 there will be about 25 space stations around Earth and possibly even space stations around the Moon and Mars. Some of space stations are going to be fully private. The largest will be larger than the current ISS.
Last edited by Tadasuke on Tue May 07, 2024 6:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
wjfox wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 8:41 am
Kurzweil is looking and sounding noticeably frailer now.
I don't think he has much longer left.
Sad to see it's like his ageing a year every 3 months, mind you there are some people such as Noam Chomsky who look like they are at deaths door but just keep going on past normal life expectancy.
Are those drool spots on his shirt below his mouth?
It seems like the bridges to radical increases in longevity are not coming as quickly as some predicted.
However, much of the sci-fi sounding stuff you can read in various futurist books might actually happen, just 20-30 years later than very optimistically predicted. Obviously it's not like that with everything, but with lots of stuff. In the grand scheme of things, 30 years in either direction doesn't matter much. Whoever lives in the year 7860 won't be much concerned whether something came to pass in 1994, 2024 or 2054. It just won't matter. Do we care if some primitive neolithic temple was constructed 6800 years ago or 6750 years ago? No.
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
Some of Kurzweil's graphs are certainly true, correct and important. Here's an example - USA's GDP per capita graph in constant 2023 dollars, which is probably about correct (although it's unfortunately not purchasing power parity - PPP):
Some of his points make sense, but some don't. Here's a 59 minutes long recent SXSW video featuring a one to one talk with him:
In 2024 he said that today 80% of people have smartphones and 5 years ago only 50% had. I don't know which country he talks about, but certainly not United States (where he lives and where SXSW takes place). He's been mentioning smartphones and social media since like 2006 or so. There were multiple PDAs available apart from the iPhone, which wasn't even that impressive to me in 2007. It had very limited functionality and half of the specs of its competitors. "Only 5 years ago blah blah blah..." It gets boring tbh. Fortunately, there are other speakers, who are more interesting to listen these days. I prefer to listen to Tristan Harris or Emad Mostaque for example.
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
