What might a Grey swan technology look like?
Posted: Mon Jan 29, 2024 3:21 am
A black swan is a complete unknown that nobody could predict; so basically it is a futurists worst nightmare. I recently learned that a grey swan is something like climate change. We don’t know exactly what will happen but we can say with some certainty that every new year will be the next hottest year of all time.
I am intrigued as applying this to technology. A few grey swans I can think of include:
•Device that can predict the weather with total and complete accuracy
•Something that can predict the emergence of a certain type of individual like the next Einstein or Ted Bundy with a modicum of certainty
•Physical search engine that can locate objects you’ve lost when you were a child
•Something that can divine a persons sexual history even though DNA currently doesn’t work that way.
What are some grey swan category tech you can think of?
Not stuff like FTL or Teleportation. Those are neither black nor grey swans. I feel that they are invisible swans. Things that have always existed in the human mind but will never come to fruition (at least not for hundreds of years)
I am intrigued as applying this to technology. A few grey swans I can think of include:
•Device that can predict the weather with total and complete accuracy
•Something that can predict the emergence of a certain type of individual like the next Einstein or Ted Bundy with a modicum of certainty
•Physical search engine that can locate objects you’ve lost when you were a child
•Something that can divine a persons sexual history even though DNA currently doesn’t work that way.
What are some grey swan category tech you can think of?
Not stuff like FTL or Teleportation. Those are neither black nor grey swans. I feel that they are invisible swans. Things that have always existed in the human mind but will never come to fruition (at least not for hundreds of years)