Future Timeline

Metacalculus has a group prediction for AGI that has been voted on over 1.5 thousand times. Votes are also weighted on the basis of if they are recent. I imagine this prediction that fluctuates and is based on the collective opinion of people who give a sh%t about AI/AI researchers is the closest thing to an accurate prediction of AI.

Do you think said criteria of the prediction in the link below = Human level AGI (or basically does) as this means I and others can just use this prediction to see how far off we are.

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/512 ... elligence/

As for me, the criteria you mentioned I considered valuable in assessing progress towards human-level AI. However, it's important to remember that predicting AGI is complex and uncertain)) I observe collective opinions provide insights, but I really take them with caution and considered alongside other factors...

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There will be no information cut-off date and will be directly connected to the internet.