Effects of the diffusions of IA & robotics in the western factories on unemployement in the lower-class

Talk about scientific and technological developments in the future
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cyprus
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Joined: Wed Feb 22, 2023 11:44 am

Effects of the diffusions of IA & robotics in the western factories on unemployement in the lower-class

Post by cyprus »

1. Effects of the diffusion of AI & robotics in the economic fabric of modern economies (with not-so up-to-date sources)
2. Effects of the diffusion of AI & robotics in the manufacturing sector of modern economies (needs more sources !)
3. Effects of the diffusion of AI & robotics in manufacturing on unemployment in the lower-class or pre-existing rust-belts (discussion)


1. The next few quotes are related to the global effect of the diffusion of IA & robotics in the economic fabric of modern economies
[AI & robotics are] the biggest challenge for our society for the next decade.
-> MIT economist Erik Brynjolfsson
[Autonomation will cause] severe disruptions to the lives and communities of many [and] have uneven distribution of impact, across sectors, wage levels, education levels, job types,and locations
-> https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/si ... conomy.PDF (2016)
[Gobally,] 46 percent of time spent on existing work activities will become automated ... <5% of occupations consist of activities that are 100% automatable ... while about 60% of occupations have at least 30% of their activities that are automatable.
Based on breaking down 800 occupations into 2000 activities that each have a mix of 18 difference capabilities with diverse automation potential
-> https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckins ... mmary.ashx (2017)
47 percent of jobs are likely to be automated within a decade or two
Based on a method of probability of computerization (Machine Learning or Mobile Robotics) of 702 detailed occupations
-> https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downl ... oyment.pdf (2013)

2. Effect of the diffusion of AI & robotics in the manufacturing sector of modern economies

-> I need to gather more sources for that specific topic to check whether factory jobs (despite representing a small share of GDP of modern service-driven economies such as the ones of western EU of USA, feed millions from the lower-class) have a higher than the rest of the occupations probability of being executed my machines in the next decade, meaning unemployment for these populations.

/!\ anyone willing to contribute in very welcome to do so /!\

3. Effects of the diffusion of AI & robotics in manufacturing on unemployment in the lower-class or pre-existing rust-belts


=> discussion with the members of the community inspired by these questions (examples) :

- will the initial cost of AI & robotics favor the replacement of work by capital in high cost of labor countries at first or is the technology already cheap enough to be used in low-income countries such as China as we speak ?
- was is the share of the lower-class that is occupied by the manufacturing sector ?
- does the widepsread diffusion of IA & robotics mean that low-income country will lose their competitive advantage in the location choice for plants ?
- is is possible to distinguish the aspects of closeness to the market and cheapeness of workforce for future movement of relocation out of China or out of the european hinterland ?
- are there geographical components to be watched (are we gonna see the appearance of a second generation of rust-belts ?)
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