2045 predictions

Talk about scientific and technological developments in the future
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funkervogt
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by funkervogt »

This article from last year makes several predictions for 2045. It's a bit technical and hard to understand.
https://compoundsemiconductor.net/artic ... rs/feature

I was able to derive these predictions from its text:

1) LEDs will be much cheaper, better, and smaller than they are today. LEDs that output deep ultraviolet light that quickly kills microorganisms and viruses will be widespread, which will benefit public health. More:
"The entire world is currently looking for effective solutions to disinfect the coronavirus," said Professor Mamane. "The problem is that in order to disinfect a bus, train, sports hall, or plane by chemical spraying, you need physical manpower, and in order for the spraying to be effective, you have to give the chemical time to act on the surface. Disinfection systems based on LED bulbs, however, can be installed in the ventilation system and air conditioner, for example, and sterilize the air sucked in and then emitted into the room.

"We discovered that it is quite simple to kill the coronavirus using LED bulbs that radiate ultraviolet light," she explained. "We killed the viruses using cheaper and more readily available LED bulbs, which consume little energy and do not contain mercury like regular bulbs. Our research has commercial and societal implications, given the possibility of using such LED bulbs in all areas of our lives, safely and quickly."

The researchers tested the optimal wavelength for killing the coronavirus and found that a length of 285 nanometers (nm) was almost as efficient in disinfecting the virus as a wavelength of 265 nm, requiring less than half a minute to destroy more than 99.9% of the coronaviruses. This result is significant because the cost of 285 nm LED bulbs is much lower than that of 265 nm bulbs, and the former are also more readily available.

Eventually, as the science develops, the industry will be able to make the necessary adjustments and install the bulbs in robotic systems or air conditioning, vacuum, and water systems, and thereby be able to efficiently disinfect large surfaces and spaces. Professor Mamane believes that the technology will be available for use in the near future.

It is important to note that it is very dangerous to try to use this method to disinfect surfaces inside homes. To be fully effective, a system must be designed so that a person is not directly exposed to the light.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 164328.htm

2) LEDs and lasers will be cheaper, better, and more energy efficient. Among other things, this means video projector devices will improve in every way by 2045. Specific predictions might include:
a. By 2045, anyone will be able to afford what would today be a movie theater-quality digital film projector. For a few hundred dollars, you could buy a machine that could project 8K-quality color footage onto the outside wall of your house or another building.
b. By 2045, your smartphone will have a small laser emitter that will be able to project high-quality images and video footage against a wall, and will consume so little energy that you will be able to watch a full-length film on one battery charge. In other words, wherever you are, so long as you have a blank, light-colored wall, you will be able to make a big-screen TV. You would prop your smartphone against something like a backpack or small stack of books to get the correct angle for the laser beam.

3) Commercial solar panels will be 50% - 60% efficient at converting sunlight into electricity.
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raklian
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by raklian »

funkervogt wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 2:08 pm If AGI doesn't exist by 2045, it will be because we lack the software.
Or stamping out any attempts to build an AGI out of fear because they watched too many Terminator movies.
To know is essentially the same as not knowing. The only thing that occurs is the rearrangement of atoms in your brain.
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funkervogt
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by funkervogt »

There will be something you could call a "self-driving RV vacation industry" that would borrow some elements from the cruise ship industry. A person would rent a self-driving RV that would be programmed to take them on a multi-day tour of some area, hitting all the important sights. At each sight, a virtual tour guide that the person could see, hear and interact with through smart glasses would lead the person around on foot.
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funkervogt
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by funkervogt »

raklian wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 3:02 pm
funkervogt wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 2:08 pm If AGI doesn't exist by 2045, it will be because we lack the software.
Or stamping out any attempts to build an AGI out of fear because they watched too many Terminator movies.
Some company or government agency will build one. A global ban on AGI development is unenforceable.
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raklian
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by raklian »

There's the potential that death could become "optional" or lifespans greatly extended by 2045, thanks to new anti-aging discoveries that were accelerated by vastly improved artificial intelligence. The anti-aging rejuvenations might be limited to the very wealthy until national governments mandate them in order to contain healthcare costs that are spiraling out of control eating into their already stretched-thin budgets.
To know is essentially the same as not knowing. The only thing that occurs is the rearrangement of atoms in your brain.
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funkervogt
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by funkervogt »

b. By 2045, your smartphone will have a small laser emitter that will be able to project high-quality images and video footage against a wall, and will consume so little energy that you will be able to watch a full-length film on one battery charge. In other words, wherever you are, so long as you have a blank, light-colored wall, you will be able to make a big-screen TV. You would prop your smartphone against something like a backpack or small stack of books to get the correct angle for the laser beam.
Of course, by 2045, VR goggles will be much better than today's in every way, so you will also be able to "make a big-screen TV" for yourself in VR and watch movies that way.

So, the broader prediction should be that, by 2045, any person will be able to use his personal technologies to create a highly immersive audiovisual experience almost anywhere.
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wjfox
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by wjfox »

What are we expecting to be the most common uses/roles for human-like robots?

I'm guessing household chores such as cleaning, cooking and tidying, as well as looking after children and elderly family members.

They'd also be popular as sex workers, I'd imagine...

I foresee the first human-robot marriages by mid-century.

Any other suggestions?
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by BaobabScion »

Training partners. I can imagine that people in combat sports will use them quite a bit. Fight as hard as you can for as long as you can against an enemy that you can't hurt and who won't hurt you - unless you want it to for conditioning's sake, in which case it'll give ya' a nice little bruising.
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raklian
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by raklian »

wjfox wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:39 pm
I foresee the first human-robot marriages by mid-century.
I'll probably will be the world's oldest groom to a robot bride. :lol: :lol:
To know is essentially the same as not knowing. The only thing that occurs is the rearrangement of atoms in your brain.
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by wjfox »

Here it is. Hope you like it.

Let me know if you think I should add/change anything. I decided to focus almost entirely on AI and robots. I may add the other suggestions as separate predictions following this.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

2045

An inflection point for human-AI interactions

By 2045, artificial intelligence (AI) has reached a level of development that is beginning to reshape human society and culture in profound ways. This year marks the date of the so-called technological singularity postulated by futurist Ray Kurzweil.* Although Kurzweil tended to be overly optimistic in a number of specific future predictions,** his basic premise of exponential growth in technology proved to be accurate.

Speculation abounds during this time, much like the build up to Y2K in 1999, the Mayan calendar predictions in 2012, and other such dates. The Internet is abuzz with rumours and singularity-related memes. While most of this talk is unfounded hype – with life carrying on as normal for most people – the "normal" of 2045 is changing at a pace that would seem alarmingly rapid to observers from earlier decades. The leaps in technology from 2020 to 2045 have been much more noticeable than those during the same timespan from 1995 to 2020.

Robots, for example, are now widespread in everyday society, their numbers having expanded by orders of magnitude in preceding decades.** They are ubiquitous in factories, farms and industrial environments, eliminating much of the traditional manual work of humans.** Additionally, these machines have gained visibility in more public settings, giving a futuristic look and feel to many cities, towns and suburbs. Similar to how touchscreen smartphones moved from science fiction to reality some 40 years earlier, these robots are quickly becoming accepted as a routine part of life. This includes fully automated waste collection in streets and parks, robotic cleaners in offices and hotels, robot security patrols, robots for grocery and other deliveries. Such applications had begun to emerge during the 2010s. Following exponential growth, they are a common sight by 2045. Furthermore, bipedal humanoid form factors account for a growing percentage of newly deployed units, particularly in homes and other indoor settings.

With a ten-thousand-fold improvement in computing power compared to 25 years previously,* robots in 2045 can perform a multitude of tasks independently and without human supervision.

Many years previously, advances in deep learning and natural language processing had made it possible to generate portions of text indistinguishable from a human writer, which led to chatbots passing the Turing test, a major landmark in the field. Alongside this natural language processing, AI gained the ability to master real world environments and an increasingly diverse range of 3D objects. Whereas earlier robots had been limited to "fixed" movements, the generation now emerging had more dynamism and flexibility – adapting to new situations and solving more and more problems. These capabilities received a boost from 5G and then 6G wireless communication and the exponentially growing amounts of data being gathered from sensors, allowing robots to learn from their experiences and disseminate knowledge to each other.

In the past, limited processing power meant that robots would often spend minutes identifying an object or situation and the interaction required. By 2045, however, these calculations can be performed in near real-time, enabling a much more human-like response. Although a few technological hurdles remain, this is close to what many would consider to be artificial general intelligence (AGI).*

In addition to their cognitive abilities, some of the latest robots have gained extremely lifelike appearances. The most advanced models are now crossing the 'Uncanny Valley', with faces and bodies that appear almost – but not quite entirely – like a real person.* This bizarre and disturbing phenomenon is fuelling demand for more natural-looking facial expressions and limb movements. The problem is solved by user feedback (the robots can auto-detect a person's emotional response – good or bad), combined with techniques such as motion capture, in a process that is somewhat similar to generative adversarial networks. These subtle iterations of data are used to determine the "best" appearance and movement, allowing gradual optimisation in successive generations of machines. 3D printed bones, amounting to all 206 in the human anatomy, along with new materials developed for more flexible skin and muscles, as well as more realistic eyes and teeth, help to iron out the remaining issues.



Image



These cutting-edge prototypes are rarely seen by average members of the public, being mostly restricted to government, corporate, and research institutions, households of the rich and famous, TED talks and so on. Less advanced models are now relatively common in society, however. They are popular for those in upper-middle income brackets and are comparable in cost to a second car or similar major purchase. Their roles include household chores such as cleaning, cooking and tidying, as well as looking after children and elderly family members.*

Although typically geofenced within the owner's property and/or local neighbourhood, these androids can also be seen further afield. They serve as excellent training partners on sports grounds, running tracks, parks and other leisure settings. Being able to replicate movements, it is possible to play against the recreation of a tennis champion, for example – or fight against a famous boxer. With the right motion capture, an owner can even play against a version of themselves if they desire.

Androids had emerged in the sex industry some decades earlier, though in rudimentary forms with limited functionality. The sex robots of 2045 are incomparably more sophisticated and engaging, to the point that many customers (mostly men) are forming long-term relationships with machines. Human-robot marriages are legalised in some jurisdictions in the latter half of this decade.**

There are many moral, ethical, legal, economic and philosophical issues around the proliferation of robots in society – all of which contribute to a growing sense of "future shock" around this time.

Other singularity-like effects are emerging in 2045. This includes the ever more rapid progress of brain-computer interfaces, enabling deeper integration of AI and human intelligence, going beyond medicine and into consumer uses such as gaming and VR, as well as education. On-person technology in general is becoming exquisitely compact and miniaturised – such as bionic eyes nearing human levels of visual acuity* and single-chip devices now approaching the size of individual blood cells.* Meanwhile, the option to extend one's lifespan appears to be a realistic prospect, thanks to recent success in human rejuvenation trials.

The rapid growth of AI and robotics, alongside many other disruptive technologies, is occurring at a time of geopolitical turmoil, as the world grapples with a convergence of social, economic and environmental issues the likes of which have never been seen before. This volatility and the sheer pace of change is creating a "mental blur" for many people in 2045 – a sense that humanity is reaching a pivotal moment in history.



References:

1. The Singularity is Near, by Ray Kurzweil

2. Kurzweil's 2009 was our 2019:
[Reddit link]

3. Timing the Singularity, Part 1
Kartik Gada, YouTube

4. Industrial robot population, 1990-2040:
https://www.futuretimeline.net/data-trends/2.htm

5. Personal service robot population, 2000-2050:
https://www.futuretimeline.net/data-trends/3.htm

6. 2025-2050 – Technological unemployment is rising rapidly:
https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcent ... #2025-2050

7. 2039 – Manufacturing jobs have largely disappeared in the West:
https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcent ... uring-jobs

8. Moore’s Law 1970-2100:
https://www.futuretimeline.net/data-trends/9.htm

9. Viewpoint: When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts
https://jair.org/index.php/jair/article/view/11222

10. Uncanny valley
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncanny_valley

11. Strategic Trends Programme: Global Strategic Trends - Out to 2045, Ministry of Defence:
https://espas.secure.europarl.europa.eu ... 202045.pdf

12. Humans will be marrying robots by 2045
https://canoe.com/news/world/humans-wil ... ts-by-2045

13. A.I. expert David Levy says a human will marry a robot by 2050
https://www.cbc.ca/radio/day6/episode-3 ... -1.3921101

14. See 2048:
https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcent ... ionic-eyes

15. World's smallest single-chip system is <0.1 mm³
https://www.futuretimeline.net/blog/202 ... me-mm3.htm
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funkervogt
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by funkervogt »

You didn't use my predictions.

This lends further support to one of them:
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginal ... wards.html
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by wjfox »

funkervogt wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 2:19 pm
You didn't use my predictions.
Oh, I still plan to. :) The latest one is mainly to focus on AI/robots. I will do smaller, separate entries for the other stuff.
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by bretbernhoft »

I believe that the most advanced technologies will have become largely non-physical, energy-based. Some sort of means of controlling the physical world through a sort of constructive, silent, invisible and malleable magnetism. I'm not describing these thoughts completely, but I think my main point is made.

Interesting question.
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JackWhite1
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by JackWhite1 »

Seeing how rapidly the world is changing, it can be assumed that in 2045 it will be completely different. Obviously, artificial intelligence will be introduced into all spheres: everyday life, industry, transport, medicine, education, etc., production will become cheaper, and life will be safer.
Vakanai
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by Vakanai »

wjfox wrote: Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:13 pm- AI, automation, and robotics, and how these will affect everyday life/society
By 2045, while AGI will exist, I don't see most people experiencing or interacting with it much in their day to day lives - but they will have access to proto-AGIs. Artists/storytellers will have access to something like DALLE-2 on their art devices of choice (tablets, AR glasses, whatever). They'll have voice assistants like Alexa/Google/Syri today, but much more advanced, like GPT-3 or better. So you can actually have a conversation with them while having them turn on your lights or unlock your front door etc. You'll be playing games with something like Gato, which can tailor its playstyle to you, engage in motivational pep talks or even playful smack talk, etc. Basically proto-AGI for the masses is going to make life more seamless and make it much more easy to do whatever you want to do.

I still don't see a majority of humans affording or owning a robot butler or maid or servant or slave or whatever you want to call them - but they will exist and be available for the more well off among us. We will however have more niche robots more widely available and more cheaply. Think Roomba or Amazon's Astro, but useful. You could buy a new stove and oven range that comes with robot arms to cook the food for you (rudimentary version of it already exists even if not available, can't remember the name but should be hard to google it), self-flying drones with grippers attached to grab something and bring it to you safely, etc. Stop gaps until Rosie the Robot drops down more in price for the masses. So you could get a lot of the function of having a humanoid robot catering to you without actually having the humanoid robot. Unless you're rich, then you've got humanoid robots.
- Brain-computer interfaces (and other implantable devices), and how these might shift from medical to consumer uses
I don't see many invasive BCI options being made available for non-medical uses, just because of the slow pace set by the regulation in that field, but there will be some. I honestly don't think anyone but the most out there individuals will be willing to have a hole in their skull just to get a BCI ala Neuralink. I think Synchron's on the right track with their whole intravenous insertion method. So yeah, I think something like that will be available and easier to sell to your typical wary consumer.

That said, I think there will be far more people using non-invasive BCIs than invasive ones. I see it being a key component to AR/VR controls going forward in the future. I see them being useful for future smart home tech, turning lights on or off with your mind, pulling a streaming service up on your tv, etc. They'll be built into hats, wigs/weaves, headbands, basically anything anyone might put on their head. They won't have quite the level of functionality of the invasive versions, but for the average person of 2045 they'll be widely considered as good enough. But in later decades after 2045 I do see more and more acceptance of invasive BCIs occurring.
– Supercomputing (likely somewhere between zettascale and yottascale?) and its potential applications by then
I honestly couldn't even hazard a guess beyond "AGI will definitely exist, maybe even early ASI, while proto-AGI is plentiful and being used by most people" so whatever level of supercomputing is needed to make that happen is where we'll be at.
- General consumer tech, gadgets, VR, home computing, Internet, etc.
We'll have smart AR contact lenses giving everyone some basic cyborg supervision at least - give everyone name tags to improve name recall, see GPS directions in front of you, the star rating of and product in front of you, social media feed constantly in your vision, and so much more. We'll have cheap "hearables", ear buds loaded up with audio enhancements so you can control the volume of the world around you, focus on only certain voices or sounds, listen to your music library, call someone handsfree, ask your voice assistant for whatever, basically cyborg super hearing. We'll have BCIs, mostly noninvasive like I said but invasive as well, so you can control your gadgets by mind like a kind of telekinesis (technokinesis), compose texts with your mind, scroll through icons or lists in your AR vision with a thought, basically a lot of cool stuff. I don't think we'll be willing to cross the "write" boundary of what can be done with BCIs by then, but everything that can be done via "read" BCI functionality we'll be experiencing.
Any other predictions are welcome, but those are the main areas I want to focus on.
Climate change is going to suck hard. The political divide in America is going to get real bad. Populist movements will have risen to startling power. Basically most of what is good in the future is the tech stuff.
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by alibabaghanouj »

weatheriscool wrote: Mon Aug 23, 2021 2:10 am America either will be an a.i ruled police state that uses robots to control the chuttle that is the human population or will rip itsself apart in massive civil wars.
But why use futuristic (and probably currently expensive) AI for your police state when you have goons that will do it for a typical human salary? I hear you on the civil wars. This next one that's about to blow has been brewing since 1998.
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Re: 2045 predictions

Post by Nanotechandmorefuture »

alibabaghanouj wrote: Tue Sep 06, 2022 4:25 am
weatheriscool wrote: Mon Aug 23, 2021 2:10 am America either will be an a.i ruled police state that uses robots to control the chuttle that is the human population or will rip itsself apart in massive civil wars.
But why use futuristic (and probably currently expensive) AI for your police state when you have goons that will do it for a typical human salary? I hear you on the civil wars. This next one that's about to blow has been brewing since 1998.
Those goons are too disobedient. Even when I was a kid I never liked cops and only being educated on what was up back in 2018 not to include the whole massive tech influence in media kicking off in 2000 goes to show I was right all along with the thought that neither do corporations or whoever is planning this. The amount of games, media, etc showing android police or at the very least cyborg cops should tell you that this future will include everyone under A.I. somehow. Not a glamorous thing to realize by the way but the police here in the USA have not helped at all either when I remember what they are like. Not much longer now though for the tech because I imagine as things get fully digital its going to be rougher for them than it is for a civilian like me.

Edit to add (yep, Reddit moment): I don't pretend to be a benefactor of this sort of technological change that will be an actual leash on the police. I do remember dealing with them a lot and how annoying some of them were on the false consciousness that they truly thought they would luck out with this sort of tech stuff and not be affected by it. I do wonder the effects once this happens of course on society in general in the USA.
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