Future Timeline

Thu 7 Mar 2024 16.42 GMT



Sweden has officially became the 32nd member of Nato, in a landmark moment for the historically neutral country and the western military alliance.

Stockholm’s ratification process was finally completed in Washington on Thursday, as Sweden and Hungary – the last country to ratify Sweden’s membership – submitted the necessary documents after a drawn-out process that has taken nearly two years.

For Sweden, it marks the end of a 20-month-long wait that started in May 2022 when it submitted its application to join alongside Finland, prompted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February that year. Finland became Nato’s 31st member last year.

Ratification also marks a historic sea change in Sweden’s national and international identity, as it shifts away from the neutrality that started at the end of the cold war.

The ratification cements Nato’s control of the Nordic region, with all countries now members, and makes the Baltic an entirely “Nato sea”

2 hours ago



There was a time when Nato would do its best to avoid direct mention of Russia when conducting its military manoeuvres. Not least for fear of provocation. But Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine has changed all that.

Now the alliance's drills have Moscow in mind. One of the key stated objectives of Exercise Steadfast Defender is to deter Russia. It's the alliance's largest since the end of the Cold War, involving 90,000 military personnel and taking place right across Europe's eastern flank over the next few months.

Steadfast Defender is also the first test of Nato's new military plans - designed to move troops and equipment at speed and scale to bolster any ally under attack. And it's an affirmation of the very purpose of Nato - that an attack on one would prompt a response from all.

Donald Trump may have called that into question, but America remains the backbone of that pledge and has committed huge resources to prove it.

The first stage of the exercise is taking place in the remote white wilderness of the Finnmark region of northern Norway. It's not that far from Norway's 120-mile border with Russia. Though in this scenario Finnmark's been invaded by a fictional enemy called Occasus.

(Eurasia Review) With Sweden’s admission into NATO, after Finland, the Nordic nation’s integration into the US-led Atlantic alliance extends the military tension into the Arctic region. This escalation introduces a new dimension of geopolitical rivalry between Russia and NATO, thereby exacerbating unrest in the security landscape in the High North. Sweden’s inclusion in the Atlantic alliance means that seven out of the eight members of the Arctic Council are now NATO Allies. This configuration poses a heightened strategic threat from the alliance to Russia in the Arctic region.

On March 7, 2024, Sweden officially became the newest member of NATO by depositing its instrument of accession to the North Atlantic Treaty with the United States government in Washington, DC. With Sweden’s accession, the total number of countries within NATO has now reached 32. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg hailed Sweden’s historic accession, granting the nation an equal role in shaping policies and the protection of Article 5. Emphasizing Sweden’s capable armed forces, Stoltenberg asserted the strengthened security of both Sweden and the Alliance. The official flag-raising ceremony at NATO headquarters on March 11, 2024, symbolizes Sweden’s integration and the Alliance’s commitment to an open-door policy.

According to Mike Winnerstig, the shift in the Swedish government’s stance towards NATO membership can be attributed to some key factors. First, the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, presented a significant challenge to European security, prompting a reevaluation of Sweden’s neutral policy. Despite historical security challenges, including world wars and the Cold War, Sweden had maintained its neutrality. However, the Ukrainian conflict prompted a shift in the official stance. Another factor was the internal study initiated by the government after warming up to the idea of NATO membership, with the report indirectly recommending it as the most suitable response to Russian aggression. The strategic alignment with Finland was yet another compelling factor, where close political and military cooperation made it apparent that a Finnish NATO membership would likely lead to a Swedish one. The importance of a ‘defence deficit’ factor also played a crucial role in the Swedish decision, even though it is not often explicitly stated.

3 hours ago

An "alliance of authoritarian powers" is working more closely together against Western democracies, the head of Nato has warned.

Jens Stoltenberg told the BBC that Russia, Iran, China and North Korea are increasingly aligned.

He also said he was confident allies of the Nato military alliance would agree a long-term funding deal for Ukraine by July.

But he suggested Ukraine might have to decide on some "kind of compromises".

Mr Stoltenberg was speaking to Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg, in an interview to be broadcast on Sunday morning.

Sat 18 May 2024 15.00 BST

Nato’s grand 75th birthday celebration in Washington in July will ring hollow in Kyiv. The alliance has miserably failed its biggest post-cold war test – the battle for Ukraine. Sadly, there’s no denying it: Vladimir Putin is on a roll.

Advancing Russian forces in Kharkiv profit from the west’s culpably slow drip-feed of weaponry to Kyiv and its leaders’ chronic fear of escalation. Ukraine receives just enough support to survive, never to prevail. Now even bare survival is in doubt.

Ukraine is Europe’s fight. It’s freedom’s global fight, Joe Biden says – a fight for democracy. “Our support cannot and will not falter. Britain is with you for as long as it takes,” Rishi Sunak vows. Yet, on the ground, Ukraine is mostly left to fight alone.

Nato should have intervened robustly to deter Russia’s aggression right from the start, as repeatedly urged here. No-fly zones could have prevented thousands of civilian casualties and limited damage to Ukraine’s cities.

Restrictions on Kyiv’s use of western-made missiles to attack military bases and oil refineries inside Russia were, and are, self-defeating. Nato navies should have imposed defensive cordons around grain-exporting Black Sea ports. Putin should be told where to shove his contemptible attempts at nuclear blackmail.

Time_Traveller wrote: ↑Sat May 18, 2024 2:15 pm Nato’s failure to save Ukraine raises an existential question: what on earth is it for?