Ukraine War Watch Thread

[caltrek]

Biden Says "Ukraine Will Never be a Victory for Russia" in Major Speech from Poland
by Ivana Saric
Updated February 21, 2023

Introduction:

(Axios) President Biden delivered a fiery message of freedom and democracy during a major speech Tuesday from Poland to mark the upcoming first anniversary of Russia's war in Ukraine.

Driving the news: The speech on Tuesday in Warsaw came a day after his surprise visit to Kyiv — a major sign of U.S. support for Ukraine.
What he's saying: "I have just come from a visit to Kyiv, and I can report that Kyiv stands strong. Kyiv stands proud. It stands tall. And most importantly, it stands free," Biden said during the opening of his remarks.

Referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who hours earlier delivered his own address, Biden said: "A dictator bent on rebuilding an empire will never be able to ease the people's love of liberty. Brutality will never grind down the will of the free. And Ukraine — Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia. Never."

• "One year after the bombs began to fall, Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine. Ukraine is still independent and free. From Kherson to Kyiv, Ukrainian fighter have reclaimed their land," Biden said.

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2023/02/21/biden ... aine-war

For a discussion of Putin’s speech: https://www.axios.com/2023/02/21/putin ... t-nuclear

[ibm9000]

I would say the important news is not what Biden has said, but what Putin has done: suspending the START Treaty.
It is not a threat, but in this chess game there is always going to be a counter-move that you will not decide.

[erowind]

I would say the important news is not what Biden has said, but what Putin has done: suspending the START Treaty.
It is not a threat, but in this chess game there is always going to be a counter-move that you will not decide.

Suspending start is suicidal. Nuclear proliferation is the definition of insanity. I wholly expect the US and Russia to pour even more funding into nuclear arms now.

[ººº]

Suspending start is suicidal. Nuclear proliferation is the definition of insanity. I wholly expect the US and Russia to pour even more funding into nuclear arms now.

Or accelerate the research and development of SDIs which could prove to be quite unfortunate.

[Water]

I would say the important news is not what Biden has said, but what Putin has done: suspending the START Treaty.
It is not a threat, but in this chess game there is always going to be a counter-move that you will not decide.

Suspending start is suicidal. Nuclear proliferation is the definition of insanity. I wholly expect the US and Russia to pour even more funding into nuclear arms now.

From a personal assumption I'm calling another type of bluff and Russia is hardly going to actively do anything special after this symbolic gesture. After so many threats year after year, it's starting to achieve the opposite in people and diplomacy. I can barely remember the last time his nuke threats actually made me feel genuinely uneasy, and now I'm inching towards questioning if they even have more properly working warheads then I have fingers on my left hand.

That said, from a logical perspective I don't see why the US or anyone else would now feel the need to add funds to the development of nuclear arms. They have enough to kickstart real life Fallout 5 on their own. Just because Russia has started wasting resources on nukes again doesn't mean there's value in being able to turn the world into glass six times over rather than just five.

[ibm9000]

Nixon... not Putin.

President: How many did we kill in Laos?
Ziegler: Maybe ten thousand—fifteen?
Kissinger: In the Laotian thing, we killed about ten, fifteen….
President: See, the attack in the North that we have in mind…power plants, whatever’s left—POL [petroleum], the docks…And, I still think we ought to talke the dikes out now. Will that drown people?
Kissinger: About two hundred thousand people.
...
President: No, no, no…I’d rather use the nuclear bomb. Have you got that, Henry?
Kissinger: That, I think, would just be too much.
President: The nuclear bomb, does that bother you?…I just want you to think big, Henry, for Christsakes.
...
Blockade plus surgical bombing will inevitably achieve our objective—bring the North Vietnamese to their knees.” Thus, even “if the South Vietnamese collapse” in the meantime, a possibility according to Kissinger, the
North, under the dual pressure, had “got to give us back our prisoners; America is not defeated. We must not lose in Vietnam… The surgical operation theory is all right, but I want that place bombed to smithereens. They’re taking
on the United States. Now, goddamit, we’re gonna do it. We’re going to cream them. This is not in anger or anything... I should have done it long ago, I just didn’t follow my instincts... I’ll see that the United States does not lose.
In a later exchange Nixon observed to Kissinger: “The only place where you and I disagree…is with regard to the bombing. You’re so goddamned concerned about the civilians and I don’t give a damn. I don’t care.”
Kissinger responded: “I’m concerned about the civilians because I don’t want the world to be mobilized against you as a butcher".

[ibm9000]

From a personal...

"Bluff" as politics, yes.
Looking at this forum... we are still uneasy.
Start made possible 18 inspections, not any more. Do you think in US they don't feel uneasy? (18 is more than 5(?), right?).
Fear or the appearance of weakness may lose an election; the only importan thing.

[erowind]

I would say the important news is not what Biden has said, but what Putin has done: suspending the START Treaty.
It is not a threat, but in this chess game there is always going to be a counter-move that you will not decide.

Suspending start is suicidal. Nuclear proliferation is the definition of insanity. I wholly expect the US and Russia to pour even more funding into nuclear arms now.

From a personal assumption I'm calling another type of bluff and Russia is hardly going to actively do anything special after this symbolic gesture. After so many threats year after year, it's starting to achieve the opposite in people and diplomacy. I can barely remember the last time his nuke threats actually made me feel genuinely uneasy, and now I'm inching towards questioning if they even have more properly working warheads then I have fingers on my left hand.

That said, from a logical perspective I don't see why the US or anyone else would now feel the need to add funds to the development of nuclear arms now. They have enough to kickstart real life Fallout 5 on their own. Just because Russia has started wasting resources on nukes again doesn't mean there's value in being able to turn the world into glass six times over rather than just five.

Ending START is a real escalation, it's a real international treaty that has real consequences. Both the US and the former USSR had significantly larger arsenals before the treaty and its predecessors going all the way back to the SALT I talks. The United States has been ramping up nuclear funding for the past two presidential administrations consistently. Russia is now joining the fold and actively scuttling the treaty entirely.

The Trump administration began the most recent bout of nuclear arms funding increases and the Biden administration has maintained this increased funding.

https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-07 ... ar-funding

My post shouldn't be read in the way that the sensationalist media and its ideological backers desire us to interpret this information. It shouldn't be read as, "THIS IS IT! PUTIN IS GOING TO BLOW US ALL UP WITH THIS PARTICULAR THREAT!!!" Rather, it should be read as, "Any nuclear proliferation is insanity universally, and, the Russian government should come under public ire for participating in this proliferation."

[weatheriscool]

China Reportedly Negotiating with Russia To Supply Kamikaze Drones
Source: Spiegel International

The U.S. and Germany have warned China not to deliver weapons to Russia. According to information obtained by DER SPIEGEL, however, Beijing and Moscow are said to be negotiating the purchase of 100 strike drones, which could be delivered as soon as April.

According to that information, the Russian military is engaged in negotiations with Chinese drone manufacturer Xi'an Bingo Intelligent Aviation Technology over the mass production of kamikaze drones for Russia. The revelations create a new urgency in the debate over possible Chinese military support for Russia.

Bingo has reportedly agreed to manufacture and test 100 ZT-180 prototype drones before delivering them to the Russian Defense Ministry by April 2023. Military experts believe the ZT-180 is capable of carrying a 35- to 50 kilogram warhead.

Read more: https://www.spiegel.de/international/wo ... 3c69bc1dff

[weatheriscool]

Poland sends first batch of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine
Source: The Hill

Poland has delivered its first batch of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced during a visit to Kyiv on Friday.

“I came here not only with a word of support. Poland, as the first European country, symbolically hands over to you, [Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky], the first four Polish Leopard tanks,” Morawiecki said, per his official Twitter account. “We will deliver more and urge our EU and NATO partners to do the same.”

Warsaw, which has pledged to provide Ukraine with 14 Leopard 2 tanks, was a key figure in the pressure campaign on Berlin last month to allow for the transfer of the German-made tanks to Ukraine.

Germany ultimately agreed to approve other countries’ requests to send the Leopard tanks to Ukraine in late January and pledged to also send 14 of its own tanks. The U.S. soon followed Berlin’s lead, announcing that it would send 31 Abrams tanks to Ukraine.

Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/po ... fad817c56f