Ukraine War Watch Thread

[ibm9000]

Given all these factors, it seems highly doubtful that Russia will be able to fully avoid the negative consequences of a protracted war.

Like Afghanistan, Vietnam or Iraq. Only Ukraine is being destroyed.

[ibm9000]

(Right click).

[funkervogt]

At the end of January 2023, a long anonymous article appeared on a pro-Kremlin website, the essence of which boiled down to the idea that the protracted war in Ukraine was not a forced necessity, but “Putin’s cunning plan.” The author asserts that Western analysts are absolutely right when they say that Russia “will have enough resources for many years, but the reserves of Western military arsenals will be seriously depleted, while their economy suffers.” The propagandist states that the transition from offensive to defensive operations will allow Moscow to carry out large-scale changes in the composition of the Russian Armed Forces, increase their numbers and ensure the timely supply of weapons and equipment. “No one is in a hurry,” the author concludes (Topcor.ru, January 19).

The West is much richer and well-resourced than Russia and hence will be better able to replace whatever it equipment it loses in Ukraine. Most of what is being given is older and less capable weapons anyway.

[Xyls]

Russian propaganda = lessons in delusion.

The West hasn't even started to up it's production capacity if it did Russia would be crushed...

The West literally has 6 bigger economies than Russia... some of these economies are multiple times bigger than Russia's.

U.S.
Japan
Germany
UK
France
Canada

Italy might make it 7 but I'm unsure if they are bigger than Russia at the moment...

[wjfox]

Russia threatens 'consequences' if UK gives jets to Ukraine

Wed, February 8, 2023 at 8:15 PM GMT

If the U.K. gives Ukraine fighter jets, there will be consequences for Europe and the entire world, the Russian embassy threatened on Feb. 8.

Earlier in the day, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said that no type of military aid was off the table, including combat aircraft, when it comes to military aid to Ukraine. Sunak made the statement at a joint press conference with President Volodymyr Zelensky during his visit to the U.K.

U.K. defense minister Ben Wallace was asked to look into what planes can be sent to Ukraine.

Sunak also said the U.K. would train Ukrainian pilots to operate NATO-standard aircraft, including British-made tech.

Zelensky made a surprise visit to London, where he met with the heads of state, as well as King Charles III, on Feb. 8.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-threa ... hQitn0Br2Y

[ibm9000]

The West hasn't even started to up it's production capacity

Actually, it has, but this is not WW2.

if it did Russia would be crushed...

Really?

What about if Russia "up" its production?, something like the Soviet Union in WW2 and then we get a nice little WW3? Wishful thinking is always sooo easy.
I would say that, like during the Spanish Civil War, the goal is not victory, but to keep the war going on; a weaker/busy Russia is in our interest. Again, they are killing Ukrainians, far and away.

Russian propaganda = lessons in delusion.

Could you define Western Propaganda?

Most of what is being given is older and less capable weapons anyway.

II thought we were "giving" the latest, state-of-the-art stuff, based on our infinite superior technology. (Apart from the Leopard 1, if).

[funkervogt]

Ukraine's generals predict a massive Russian offensive between now and the first anniversary of the invasion (February 24).
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/08/uk ... putin-war/

[caltrek]

Ukraine Apparently Kills Its First Russian Terminator Combat Vehicle
by Emma Hellfrich
February , 2023

Introduction:

(The Drive) Ukrainian forces have put an advanced Russian BMPT Terminator armored fighting vehicle out of commission for the first time, according to the Ukrainian Marines. The Terminator is a relatively new addition to Russia's ground arsenal and only a small number of them are known to be in service, making this kill quite the trophy for the Ukrainian military.

Members of the Ukrainian Marine Corps’ 140th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion helped destroy the BMPT, according to a post on the service’s official Facebook page. The post explains the Marines belonging to the unit shared the Terminator’s coordinates with nearby artillery forces, who then carried out the attack, stating:

Hasta la vista, baby! Soldiers of the 140th separate reconnaissance battalion of the marines found the detonated Russian BMPT "Terminator", transferred the coordinates to the artillery units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and further adjusted the fire. So, we see that this allegedly "invincible" and "unique" combat vehicle burns just as well as the rest of Russian scrap metal. Glory to the marines! Glory to Ukraine!

Read more here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ ... t-vehicle


caltrek: Yes, the video (see provided link) is obviously a propaganda piece. Still, if third party analysts indicate it shows what it claims to show...

[caltrek]

Here Is What Russia’s Military Aircraft and Missiles Actually Cost
by Piotr Butowski
February 9, 2023

Conclusion:

(The Drive) An analysis from Forbes Ukraine last November assessed that the Kremlin had spent around $82 billion in the first nine months of its war, of which nearly $29 billion was to support the armed forces, $16 billion for soldiers’ salaries, and more than $9 billion for the families of servicemen killed in combat. At that point, the same source suggested that Russian military equipment losses had cost another $21 billion.

Alongside the colossal cost of the war and the fact that sanctions are pushing up prices across the supply chain, Russia’s already fragile economy looks precarious, more generally, with reports that Gross Domestic Product output has dropped, although not as far as some had predicted.

Where the Russian arms industry once relied heavily upon foreign sales to keep its production lines busy and provide cash that could be channeled into further research and development, notably in the case of the Sukhoi Flanker multirole fighter jet family, the war in Ukraine has seen Russian defense exports hit badly, while it will be harder to fulfill any existing contracts…

“We anticipate that they’re going to have a real problem delivering equipment at the rate they’re losing equipment in Ukraine,” a senior U.S. intelligence official told Foreign Policy last summer. Not only are aircraft like the Ka-52 now urgently needed by Russia as attrition replacements, rather than for export, but the generally poor showing of Russian air power in the conflict will almost certainly make it less attractive to potential customers — if those customers are even willing to do business with Putin’s Russia at all.

Whatever happens next in the conflict, it seems certain that Russia’s isolated position means that it will have to rely primarily on its domestic production capabilities to make good losses and restock weapons stockpiles. We may well never know what that will all cost, but the above examples demonstrate a general lack of resilience in the Russian military aircraft and weapons industry, and, as exports dry up, the Kremlin may be forced to intervene in other ways to prop up its defense companies.

Read more here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ ... ally-cost

[kevinsstelly]

At the end of January 2023, a long anonymous article appeared on a pro-Kremlin website, the essence of which boiled down to the idea that the protracted war in Ukraine was not a forced necessity, but “Putin’s cunning plan.” The author asserts that Western analysts are absolutely right when they say that Russia “will have enough resources for many years, but the reserves of Western military arsenals will be seriously depleted, while their economy suffers.” The propagandist states that the transition from offensive to defensive operations will allow Moscow to carry out large-scale changes in the composition of the Russian Armed Forces, increase their numbers and ensure the timely supply of weapons and equipment. Here! “No one is in a hurry,” the author concludes (Topcor.ru, January 19).

The West is much richer and well-resourced than Russia and hence will be better able to replace whatever it equipment it loses in Ukraine. Most of what is being given is older and less capable weapons anyway.

I agree that the Russian economy is falling! Already a protracted war has been going on for almost 1 year! Russia has a 30% hole in the budget .... How much Russia can withstand without economic collapses, I think not for long!

[ibm9000]

Dig a hole in your backyard while it is raining. Sit in there while the water climbs up your ankles. Pour cold mud down your shirt. Sit there for 48 hours, and, so there is no danger of you dozing off, imagine that a guy is sneaking around waiting for a chance to club you on the head or to set your house on fire. Get out of the hole, fill a suitcase of rocks, pick it up, put a shotgun in your other hand and walk on the muddiest road you can find. Fall flat on your face every few minutes, as you imagine big meteors streaking down to sock you. Snoop around until you find a bull. Try to figure out a way to sneak around him without letting him see you. When he does see you, run like hell all the way back to your hole in the backyard, drop your suitcase and gun and get in. If you repeat this performance every three days for several months you may begin to understand why an infantryman gets out of breath. But still you won’t understand how he feels when things get tough. B. Mauldin.

I seems that we have just discover that war is expensive and that conditions are bad; and we keep asking for more.
In our proxy war, drinking a nice cup of tea, I cannot see the problem in how many casualties Ukraine suffers and, like in Iraq, reconstruction will bring good business opportunities.

I wonder if in 5 years (let's say 10, but Vietnam was invading Cambodia after the Vietnam war), a western, modernized, powerful Ukraine invades Belarus: are we going to provide the same support to Belarus?

[funkervogt]

II thought we were "giving" the latest, state-of-the-art stuff, based on our infinite superior technology. (Apart from the Leopard 1, if).

The West has given a mix of military equipment to Ukraine, from the obsolescent to fully modern.

[ibm9000]

II thought we were "giving" the latest, state-of-the-art stuff, based on our infinite superior technology. (Apart from the Leopard 1, if).

The West has given a mix of military equipment to Ukraine, from the obsolescent to fully modern.

Yes, I know, like that we are giving under-armoured Abrams, after some work, because its amour is "classified"; unless US is getting them back from some other country. My point is that the superior technology is a myth, a legacy from the Cold War: they have more, so ours has to be better, if not, we are admitting defeat even before starting.
(And I wouldn't call it "obsolescent, it kills just as well, something like 80% of the planet is using that -and the other 20% still have a lot of the old stuff, just in case- and there is not that much of the latest to go around, it's too expensive).

I agree that the Russian economy is falling!

The last time I read something about economy, Russia was -15%, Ukraine -45%. So, that means that 90% of Ukraine's economy is gone? That would be a clear victory.

I find a bit amusing the no-comparison. I think it is useful to get a little perspective, to have an idea about what is happening on both sides of the hill; maybe even to compare it with what happened before. That big picture should be more accurate.

[ibm9000]

Ukraine says two Russian missiles flew over Romania...
Romania says no, but what do they know?

Just another official statement.

[ibm9000]

It is February already...

Any news about those hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers who were going to freeze to death?
Anything?

[wjfox]

Russian soldier death rate highest since first week of war - Ukraine

40 minutes ago

Russian soldiers are dying in greater numbers in Ukraine this month than at any time since the first week of the invasion, according to Ukrainian data.

The Ukrainian data shows 824 Russian soldiers dying per day in February.

The figures were highlighted by the UK's Ministry of Defence. The figures cannot be verified - but the UK says the trends are "likely accurate".

The increase comes as Ukrainian officials say that Russia has launched a "big offensive".

However, the secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine (NSDC), Oleksiy Danilov, also said Russia is experiencing "big problems" with the campaign.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64616099

[ibm9000]

I think the "according to" is the important part here.

The 800 dead means (from a minimum of 3 to 1 wounded/dead, to a 10 to 1; let's take 5 to 1) around 5000 casualties every day, so 50.000 casualties in 10 days of combat. I am not going to believe that enemy estimate, specially because in every war you read quite often that of... the enemy suffered a large number of casualties.

How many casualties a day is "big problems"?

[ibm9000]

BTW, you (wjfox) mean 824 casualties.

[weatheriscool]

United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately
Source: Reuters

MOSCOW, Feb 13 (Reuters) - The United States has told its citizens to leave Russia immediately due to the war in Ukraine and the risk of arbitrary arrest or harassment by Russian law enforcement agencies.

"U.S. citizens residing or travelling in Russia should depart immediately," the U.S. embassy in Moscow said. "Exercise increased caution due to the risk of wrongful detentions." "Do not travel to Russia," it added.

"Russian security services have arrested U.S. citizens on spurious charges, singled out U.S. citizens in Russia for detention and harassment, denied them fair and transparent treatment, and convicted them in secret trials or without presenting credible evidence," the embassy said.

"Russian authorities arbitrarily enforce local laws against U.S. citizen religious workers and have opened questionable criminal investigations against U.S. citizens engaged in religious activity."

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/united ... 023-02-13/

[caltrek]

How Spin and Lies Fuel a Bloody War of Attrition in Ukraine
by Medea Benjamin and Nicolas Davies
February 13, 2023

Introduction:

(Common Dreams) In a recent column, military analyst William Astore wrote, "[Congressman] George Santos is a symptom of a much larger disease: a lack of honor, a lack of shame, in America. Honor, truth, integrity, simply don't seem to matter, or matter much, in America today… But how do you have a democracy where there is no truth?"

Astore went on to compare America's political and military leaders to the disgraced Congressman Santos. "U.S. military leaders appeared before Congress to testify the Iraq War was being won," Astore wrote. "They appeared before Congress to testify the Afghan War was being won. They talked of "progress," of corners being turned, of Iraqi and Afghan forces being successfully trained and ready to assume their duties as U.S. forces withdrew. As events showed, it was all spin. All lies."

Now America is at war again, in Ukraine, and the spin continues. This war involves Russia, Ukraine, the United States and its NATO allies. No party to this conflict has leveled with its own people to honestly explain what it is fighting for, what it really hopes to achieve and how it plans to achieve it. All sides claim to be fighting for noble causes and insist that it is the other side that refuses to negotiate a peaceful resolution. They are all manipulating and lying, and compliant media (on all sides) trumpet their lies.

It is a truism that the first casualty of war is the truth. But spinning and lying has real-world impacts in a war in which hundreds of thousands of real people are fighting and dying, while their homes, on both sides of the front lines, are reduced to rubble by hundreds of thousands of howitzer shells.
Yves Smith, the editor of Naked Capitalism, explored this insidious linkage between the information war and the real one in an article titled, "What if Russia won the Ukraine War, but the Western press didn't notice?" He observed that Ukraine's total dependence on the supply of weapons and money from its Western allies has given a life of its own to a triumphalist narrative that Ukraine is defeating Russia, and will keep scoring victories as long as the West keeps sending it more money and increasingly powerful and deadly weapons.

Read more of the Common Dreams article here: https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/w ... n-ukraine

For the Naked Capitalism article: https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/0 ... tice.html