Russian Air Defenses Again Activated In Sevastopol by Howard Altman
December 30, 2022
Introduction:
(The Drive) Russian air defense systems in the Black Sea port city of Sevastopol on the occupied Crimean peninsula were activated Friday morning local time, the Russian-installed governor said on his Telegram channel. It was the second such incident this month at or near the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, which has already relocated some vessels in the wake of previous Ukrainian drone attacks.
While it is unclear what Russian air defense batteries were shooting at Friday, video and images emerged on social media of apparent air defense missiles being launched into the sky.
(See link provided below for Twitter feeds)
“In Sevastopol, the air defense system worked out,” said Sevastopol occupation governor Mikhail Razvozhayev on his Telegram channel. “All services are operating normally. Our military, as always, worked well. Everyone please remain calm.”
Sevastopol residents reported that “the windows and objects in the house were shaking,” according to the Ukrainian CrimeanWind Telegram channel.
“According to eyewitnesses, [it was] the most powerful explosion of all time.”
The explosions were heard by the port, according to CrimeanWind, as a helicopter and airplane were observed in the air.
Evidence of Russian crimes mounts as war in Ukraine drags on
Source: AP
By MICHAEL BIESECKER and ERIKA KINETZ today
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ten months into Russia’s latest invasion of Ukraine, overwhelming evidence shows the Kremlin’s troops have waged total war, with disregard for international laws governing the treatment of civilians and conduct on the battlefield.
Ukraine is investigating more than 58,000 potential Russian war crimes — killings, kidnappings, indiscriminate bombings and sexual assaults. Reporting by The Associated Press and “Frontline,” recorded in a public database, has independently verified more than 600 incidents that appear to violate the laws of war. Some of those attacks were massacres that killed dozens or hundreds of civilians and as a totality it could account for thousands of individual war crimes.
As Karim Khan, chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court in The Hague, told the AP, “Ukraine is a crime scene.”
That extensive documentation has run smack into a hard reality, however. While authorities have amassed a staggering amount of evidence — the conflict is among the most documented in human history — they are unlikely to arrest most of those who pulled the trigger or gave the beatings anytime soon, let alone the commanders who gave the orders and political leaders who sanctioned the attacks.
Our thoughts and for those of faith our prayers are with you. I wish I could say that is the case without exception. Unfortunately, there are those who are indifferent, and others who are actually partisan toward Russia. Please forgive them for their ignorance. All too often, they are secluded in their little information silos or too pre-occupied with their own lives to care. Still, there are many who do care and are working to raise the consciousness and awareness of the situation. Even from Russia, we hear reports of many who oppose the actions of their government. One hopes they will soon prevail, and that the government will see the error of its ways, or at least seek an end to this madness.
Ukrainian air defenses shoot down 45 Shahed drones during New Year's night
Source: Yahoo News
Ukraine’s Air Force Command reported on Telegram that Air Force and other military units’ air defenses had shot down 45 attack UAVs during the night. The command added that 13 drones were destroyed before midnight and another 32 in the first hours of 2023.
"The holiday was not spoiled for Ukrainians," the command’s statement reads.
In Kyiv, Police showed the wreckage of an Iranian drone shot down over the capital in the early hours of Jan. 1. The wreckage of the enemy drone was found on a sports ground.
In a Telegram post shared by the head of the police of Kyiv Oblast Andriy Nebytov, pictures of the wreckage showed that someone had written “Happy New Year” on one of the drone’s wing stabilizers, and had drawn a present, fireworks, and a bomb, with “boom” written on it.
Ukraine Shells Donetsk's Makiivka, Hitting Military Quarters -Officials
Source: US News and World Report
Ukraine's forces shelled on New Year's Eve the city of Makiivka and other places of the Moscow-controlled parts of the Donetsk region, Russia's officials said, with reports saying that a military quarters were hit, killing many.
The Moscow-installed administration of the Donetsk region in Ukraine said on Sunday that at least 25 rockets were fired at the region overnight on New Year's Eve.
...
Daniil Bezsonov, a senior Russian-backed official in the Moscow-controlled parts of the Donetsk region, said that there was a strike on a vocational school, which according to preliminary information served as military personnel quarters.
...
"A massive blow was dealt to the vocational school from American MLRS HIMARS. There were dead and wounded, the exact number is still unknown," Bezsonov said on the Telegram messaging app. "The building itself was badly damaged."
The only way I see this ending is for Russia to declare total war and "human wave" Ukraine WW2-style (very unlikely) or prolong the war until Ukraine surrenders/reach a ceasefire like Korea or Cyprus.
Russia Vs. Ukraine: What Does Victory Look Like? – Analysis by Nataliya Butyrska
January 3, 2022
Introduction:
(Observer Research Foundation via Eurasia Review) With no negotiations in sight and renewed backing from the West, the Russia-Ukraine War is still far from over.
The Russian-Ukrainian war has entered a new phase.
During the 10 months of war, Ukraine has managed to recover part of its territories occupied by Russia, and also to prevent the collapse of the economy. Winter has not halted military operations. The Ukrainian military leadership stresses that the war cannot be put on pause, because it will allow Russia to accumulate additional resources for new offensives in the spring. Therefore, the steady supply of weapons and the ability to raise more resources will determine the course of the war in the next few months.
The successful passage of winter, both for the Ukrainian army and the Ukrainian state in general, largely depends on the financial and military support of partners. During the 10 months of the war, world leaders across the globe faced its consequences—mainly rising prices for energy resources and food products. This increases the negative pressure on the governments of different countries, even those that are determined to provide further financial and military support to Ukraine. Last week, Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the United States (US)—his first foreign visit since the Russian aggression began in February last year.
President Zelenskyy’s visit to the US pursued important goals. First, to ensure further political, military-technical and financial support to Ukraine. Secondly, to coordinate the strategy and tactics of confronting Russia on the military front as well as in the political and diplomatic sphere.
Why Putin has no path to victory in Ukraine this year.
3 January 2023
months. For Russia’s dictator, Vladimir Putin, what is not in store is any kind of victory in his war against Ukraine, because he has no path to victory.
Back in February of 2022, Putin gathered his Security Council to appear to poll them on one question, should Russia declare that the “Donetsk People’s Republic” and the “Luhansk People’s Republic” are independent states in their own right?
It was pure theatre and the outcome was predetermined. But that fateful meeting set the stage for a larger war because of one deliberate ambiguity – Russia was not fully in control of these two Ukrainian regions since its preliminary invasion in 2014. However, it was the whole of them both that Putin decided would no longer be considered, by Russia, to be a part of Ukraine. So this mean that war was coming, in order to at least take the remainder of Luhansk and Donetsk.
As we saw a few days later, when Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February, Putin had much larger aims. Over the last ten months, those aims have since been constantly dialled back.
Putin’s desire to take control over the whole of Ukraine through the swift capture of the capital, Kyiv, was defeated. His desire to take Kharkiv in the northeast was also defeated. His desire to freeze Ukraine’s export capabilities was defeated with the recapture of Snake Island. What now remains of his grand 2022 invasion plans is a brutal war in those same two eastern regions, along with partial control of two southern regions, those of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, which give Russia a land bridge to occupied Crimea.
The AMX-10 RC is not a tank and is far away from being a MBT.
By the way...
There is a Russian Official Statement saying that they can confirm "a lot" of enemy casualties in a recent attack; Ukraine claims two wounded. Probably, they sent a few Forensic Teams over the top.
Germany to supply around 40 armored carriers to Ukraine
Source: AP
today
BERLIN (AP) — Germany aims to supply around 40 Marder armored personnel carriers to Ukraine in this year’s first quarter, the government said Friday.
Officials gave more details of the plan, which marks another notable shift forward in Germany’s weapons deliveries to Ukraine, after Germany announced its intention to send the Marder APCs following a phone call between Chancellor Olaf Scholz and U.S. President Joe Biden on Thursday.
“These 40 vehicles should be ready in the first quarter already so that they can be handed over to Ukraine,” Scholz’s spokesman, Steffen Hebestreit, told reporters in Berlin. Germany plans to train Ukrainian forces to use the vehicles, and Hebestreit said experts expect that process to take around eight weeks.
Germany has already given significant military aid, including howitzers, Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns and an IRIS-T surface-to-air missile system, with three more of those set to follow this year.
Boosting Ukraine’s Maneuver Capabilities Focus Of $3B U.S. Aid Package by Howard Altman
January 6, 2023
Introduction:
(The Drive) Last month, Valery Zaluzhny, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Army, told The Economist what was needed to restore Ukraine’s territory to its borders before Russia’s full-on invasion. Friday, the Pentagon took another partial step toward fulfilling those wishes with a new $3 billion aid package headlined by 50 M2A2-ODS Bradley Fighting Vehicles.
“I know that I can beat this enemy. But I need resources," Zaluzhny said back in December. "I need 300 tanks, 600-700 IFVs [Infantry Fighting Vehicles], 500 Howitzers. Then, I think it is completely realistic to get to the lines of February 23rd.”
(See linked article below for Twitter feeds)
All told, the $2.85 billion Presidential Drawdown package includes no tanks, but among the Bradleys and Sea Sparrow missiles, more than 300 other vehicles are being donated, including 18 M109A6 Paladin 155mm self-propelled howitzers - another first for Ukraine. An additional 36 105mm towed howitzers are also on the list.
The Paladins "will provide greater protection and maneuverability than the towed howitzers previously provided," Laura Cooper, deputy assistant defense secretary for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia, told reporters including from The War Zone, during a Friday afternoon press briefing. The U.S. has previously provided 178 towed howitzers to Ukraine. The package also includes spare parts for the Bradleys, she said.
