Ukraine War Watch Thread

[andmar74]

How can Putin get out of this without loosing face?
When I was thinking about this, it became obvious:

The Russians will leave Crimea and the rest of Ukraine, and Putin will explain that Russia couldn't keep on fighting all of NATO, which is 30 countries. Now this is even mostly true. A huge amount of weapons and ammunition has been sent to Ukraine, to the point where the NATO members are running low on military equipment. Ukrainian soldiers and other personel are trained in NATO countries, and prior to the war the Ukrainian army was trained by NATO personel in Ukraine. Also, Ukraine is surely getting a lot of intel from the west.

Putin will also say that a lot of nazis have been tortured and killed, so under the circumstances it's a success.

[wjfox]

[caltrek]

U.S. To Rush Delivery Of NASAMS Air Defense Systems
by Howard Altman
October 11, 2022

Introduction:

(The Drive) day after a massive Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine that left at least 20 dead and its energy infrastructure damaged, Ukraine received some good news about badly needed weaponry. The White House promised to speed up delivery of two of eight promised National Advanced Surface to Air Missile Systems, or NASAMS. In addition, Ukraine has received the first of four promised IRIS-T SLM surface-to-air missile systems from Germany, as well as four more M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) systems from the U.S.

"We think that we're on track to get those first two [NASAMS] over there in the very near future," National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Tuesday. "We are certainly interested in expediting the delivery of NASAMS to Ukraine as soon as we can."

(See linked article for Twitter feeds).

It remains unclear how the NASAMS heading to Ukraine will be configured. A number of different versions of the system exist, made up of different combinations of launchers, radars and other sensors, and command and control nodes. Some NASAMS variants can incorporate missile launchers mounted on Humvees or other light vehicles. Tests have also been conducted of the HIMARS vehicle, which Ukraine has now received at least 16 of, as a launch platform for the AIM-120 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM), which could be utilized with NASAMS.

Also unclear are the "munitions" the U.S. has said it will send along with these systems. NASAMS can fire versions of the radar-guided AMRAAM, including a new extended range derivative optimized for use in the ground-launched roles, as well as the AIM-9X Sidewinder heat-seeking missile, and more.

Read more here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ ... e-systems

caltrek’s comment: I used to enjoy reporting on the latest gee whiz technology in this forum. In contrast, reporting on the latest weapon system deployment is positively depressing. We seem to be getting better at developing more and more exquisite means of killing each other. Reporting on essentially “defensive” weapons systems isn’t much better because of the need to mention the offensive systems that they are designed to counter, as well as the way defensive weapons become a part of a military force which is in large part offensive in nature. This is what Putin’s war has done to humanity. It has dragged us back to where we were fifty years ago, which in turn was no better than where we were one hundred years ago.

Edit:

A diagram showing the components of a typical Royal Norwegian Air Force (RNoAF) NASAMS 2 system, as an example of one possible configuration of a complete system.
Royal Norwegian Air Force

[caltrek]

Could Long-Range Iranian Missiles Be Next For Russia?
by Thomas Newdick and Tyler Rogoway
October 11, 2022

Introduction:

(The Drive) According to a statement from Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat, Russia launched “over 83 missiles” in yesterday’s attack on Ukraine — as well as 17 Iranian-supplied Shahed-136 ‘kamikaze drones.’ Of those 83 mainly long-range missiles, the air force claimed it shot down 43. While these numbers can’t be independently verified, the missile assault was clearly on a much greater scale than we have otherwise seen in recent months.

With the primary targets being of a civilian nature, including energy infrastructure, that also means fewer missiles of this kind are available to Russia for high-priority military targets, including hardened ones. Meanwhile, there are plenty of reports that suggest that the Kremlin’s stocks of precision-guided standoff missiles may be running low. With limited production capacity and sanctions hampering their direct replacement, and Moscow already being a customer of Tehran's drones, it’s possible we may start to see Iranian-made ballistic missiles employed by Russia in its war in Ukraine.

Read more here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ ... or-russia

[wjfox]

[caltrek]

This Is Russia’s Electronic Warfare Helicopter Jamming In Ukraine
by Piotr Butowski
October 10, 2022

Introduction:

(The Drive) A rarely-seen Russian military helicopter is playing a discreet and potentially extremely valuable role in the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine. Loitering deep inside Russian-controlled territory to avoid being shot down and flying at an altitude of more than 10,000 feet, for optimum effect, Mi-8MTPR-1 Rychag helicopters are waging electronic warfare against Ukrainian air defense systems.

The use of the Mi-8MTPR-1 electronic warfare (EW) helicopter in the war in Ukraine is confirmed by imagery released by the Russian Ministry of Defense. In one video, shown below, a soldier (perhaps a pilot) standing next to the helicopter explains that the Rychag system is used “to suppress the air defense capabilities, of all variants, that are in the neighboring territory, both analog Western systems, and former Soviet systems” in order to enable Russian strike aircraft to penetrate deeper into Ukraine. (The soldier is speaking what I presume to be Russian - caltrek).

Further extract:

However, judging by the continuing heavy losses that are being inflicted on Russian tactical and army aviation, the Mi-8MTPR-1 can be considered generally ineffective, at least in terms of the bigger air war picture. Overall, Russia’s extensive EW capabilities appear to have had very mixed results in the war so far, as you can read about in our in-depth feature on the topic.

Read more here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ ... n-ukraine

[wjfox]

[wjfox]

[wjfox]

[caltrek]

'Protection Zone' Around Ukraine Nuclear Plant Urgently Needed, Says Chief of International Atomic Energy Agency
by Kenny Stancil
October 12, 2022

Introduction:

(Common Dream) External power has been restored to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant after operators were forced to rely on diesel generators for the second time in five days amid sustained shelling, but that only underscores the urgent need to establish a "protection zone" around the Russian-occupied facility in southeastern Ukraine, the head of the United Nation's atomic watchdog said Wednesday.

A pair of independent monitors from the International Atomic Energy Agency who have been stationed at Europe's largest nuclear plant since the conclusion of an inspection last month informed IAEA Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi around 8:30 am ET that the Zaporizhzhia facility had been reconnected to the grid several hours after a missile damaged an electrical substation more than 100 miles north of the site and caused it to go offline.
Calling the situation "precarious," Grossi tweeted: "We need a protection zone as soon as possible."

Hours earlier, before external power had been restored, the IAEA chief said that the "repeated loss of ZNPP's off-site power is a deeply worrying development, and it underlines the urgent need for a nuclear safety and security protection zone around the site."

Although all six nuclear reactors at the Zaporizhzhia plant have been shut down as of last month, a constant supply of electricity is still required to maintain critical safety systems and prevent a calamitous meltdown of the sort that unfolded 36 years ago at Chernobyl, roughly 400 miles away.

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022 ... aea-chief

[Yuli Ban]

[weatheriscool]

UN demands Russia reverse 'illegal' annexations in Ukraine
Source: AP

UNITED NATIONS (AP) — The U.N. General Assembly voted overwhelmingly Wednesday to condemn Russia’s “attempted illegal annexation” of four Ukrainian regions and demand its immediate reversal, a sign of strong global opposition to the seven-month war and Moscow’s attempt to grab its neighbor’s territory.

The vote in the 193-member world body was 143-5 with 35 abstentions. It was the strongest support from the General Assembly for Ukraine and against Russia of the four resolutions it has approved since Russian troops invaded Ukraine Feb. 24.

Ukraine's U.N. ambassador, Sergiy Kyslytsya, called the vote “amazing" and “a historic moment." U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield said supporters were “holding our breaths" and called it “a monumental day." European Union Ambassador Olof Skoog called it “a great success" that sends “a resounding message to Russia that they are and remain isolated."

The Western-sponsored resolution was a response to Russia’s announced annexation last month of Ukraine’s Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Moscow acted following Kremlin-orchestrated “referendums” that the Ukrainian government and the West have dismissed as sham votes conducted on occupied land amid warfare and displacement.

Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/un ... r-AA12Tkwi

[wjfox]

[Xyls]

I see the Russians are beginning to realize what is coming for Kherson in what again is going to likely be the decisive battle of the war. Currently Ukrainian forces are advancing towards Mylove.





Speaking of Russian morale...

[Xyls]

Macron what are you doing? Is this part of some strategy where you are playing the good cop to get Putin to engage while the Anglophone countries play the bad cop? Let's be real, it isn't France that Putin needs to worry about its the United States and UK. This is a bad look for France which is giving the "cheese eating surrender monkey" trope legs again...

France Says It Won’t Deploy Nukes If Russia Uses Them Against Ukraine

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... st-ukraine

First rule of deterrence... don't rule ANYTHING out and keep people guessing. Lord, this man...

[Xyls]

This is so improbable lol. This kind of strike would result in immediate nuclear retaliation from NATO.

[weatheriscool]

Russian-installed governor of Ukraine's Kherson suggests residents leave
Source: Reuters

The Russian-installed governor of Ukraine's Kherson region offered on Thursday to help its residents leave amid intense fighting between Russian and advancing Ukrainian forces - prompting a rapid denial from his deputy that an "evacuation" was taking place.

In a video statement on Telegram, Vladimir Saldo publicly asked for Moscow's help in transporting civilians to safer regions of Russia.

"As such, the leadership of Kherson administration has decided to provide Kherson families with the option to travel to other regions of the Russian Federation to rest and study," he said, adding that people should "leave with their children".
...
But moments later, the region's deputy governor posted a video saying Saldo's appeal to Moscow was "not a call for evacuation".

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 022-10-13/

[Xyls]

Ukraine also advancing on Svatove.

[Xyls]

Lol mobilization going swell so far:



How long until Russia needs to mobilize again?

How many lives did the Russians waste around Bakhmut over the last few days? Lol...

[Xyls]

I'm so sad... where is certain Russian user lately anyways?

Anyways this is what like 8 days of training gets you.

Russian soldiers that don't know what mines are:



And people think this mobilization is going to change anything on the battlefield...