Ukraine War Watch Thread

[caltrek]

https://twitter.com/SlopeRocker/status/ ... 6941393922

This is Russian trash TV. They say all kinds of threatening and extreme things to appeal to the emotions of Russians and to (hopefully) intimidate Westerners.

Agreed.

Ignore it.

Russia is Winning the Economic War - and Putin is No Closer to Withdrawing Troops

by Larry Eliot
June 2, 2022

Introduction:

(The Guardian) It is now three months since the west launched its economic war against Russia, and it is not going according to plan. On the contrary, things are going very badly indeed.

Sanctions were imposed on Vladimir Putin not because they were considered the best option, but because they were better than the other two available courses of action: doing nothing or getting involved militarily.

The first set of economic measures were introduced immediately after the invasion, when it was assumed Ukraine would capitulate within days. That didn’t happen, with the result that sanctions – while still incomplete – have gradually been intensified.

There is, though, no immediate sign of Russia pulling out of Ukraine and that’s hardly surprising, because the sanctions have had the perverse effect of driving up the cost of Russia’s oil and gas exports, massively boosting its trade balance and financing its war effort. In the first four months of 2022, Putin could boast a current account surplus of $96bn (£76bn) – more than treble the figure for the same period of 2021.

When the EU announced its partial ban on Russian oil exports earlier this week, the cost of crude oil on the global markets rose, providing the Kremlin with another financial windfall. Russia is finding no difficulty finding alternative markets for its energy, with exports of oil and gas to China in April up more than 50% year on year.

Read more here: Russia is winning the economic war - a ... Guardian

The article does go on to acknowledge that the International Monetary Fund is estimating that Russia’s economy will “shrink by 8.5% this year. So, we have a scenario where everybody loses, except that the Russian people are somehow convinced through propaganda that the war needs to continue.

Mind you, I think they have lost the propaganda war outside of Russia in places like the Ukraine and, temporarily at least, much of Western Europe. Still, to continue the war, Putin only needs to win the propaganda war within their own country.

[caltrek]

"Russian troops invaded 3,620 populated localities of Ukraine. 1,017 of them have already been liberated, another 2,603 need to be liberated. As of today, about 20% of our territory is controlled by the occupiers, almost 125,000 square kilometers. It is much more than the area of all Benelux countries combined," Zelensky said in his address to the politicians and the people of Luxembourg, Ukrinform reports.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/34 ... itory.html

If Russia were to declare a cease-fire right now and merely defend the territory it has taken over, it would be a major loss for Ukraine. Ukraine has lost access to the Sea of Azov, Russia has a secure land route to Crimea, and Ukraine will be even less able to defend itself against a future Russian invasion once the Russians rebuild their military.

Yes, and it, or at least Putin, will be emboldened to continue its expansionist ways. For what?

For a "war trophy"?

For the satisfaction of having immiserated millions of people?

So they can change the color of maps on the Ukraine (and perhaps later other territories) to reflect that Russia controls some or all of that country?

To unite Russians behind Putin while he seeks to destroy the last remnants of democracy and opposition in Russia?

Meanwhile, everybody, including Russia. loses as attention is diverted away from the need to address the problem of global climate change.

Why should Putin's policies be considered as anything other than pure nihilism?

[funkervogt]

"Russian troops invaded 3,620 populated localities of Ukraine. 1,017 of them have already been liberated, another 2,603 need to be liberated. As of today, about 20% of our territory is controlled by the occupiers, almost 125,000 square kilometers. It is much more than the area of all Benelux countries combined," Zelensky said in his address to the politicians and the people of Luxembourg, Ukrinform reports.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/34 ... itory.html

If Russia were to declare a cease-fire right now and merely defend the territory it has taken over, it would be a major loss for Ukraine. Ukraine has lost access to the Sea of Azov, Russia has a secure land route to Crimea, and Ukraine will be even less able to defend itself against a future Russian invasion once the Russians rebuild their military.

Yes, and it, or at least Putin, will be emboldened to continue its expansionist ways. For what?

For a "war trophy"?

For the satisfaction of having immiserated millions of people?

So they can change the color of maps on the Ukraine (and perhaps later other territories) to reflect that Russia controls some or all of that country?

To unite Russians behind Putin while he seeks to destroy the last remnants of democracy and opposition in Russia?

Meanwhile, everybody, including Russia. loses as attention is diverted away from the need to address the problem of global climate change.

Why should Putin's policies be considered as anything other than pure nihilism?

I agree the Ukraine invasion was a massive mistake, will hurt everybody, and will prove to have been not worth it even if Russia retains the territory it has taken so far. I was just pointing out that there is a path to "victory" for Russia, and this war could end with rump Ukraine in a weaker position than ever.

[funkervogt]

Russian forces will collapse and Putin to face coup after 'major strategic shift in war', expert says

6h ago 10:28

Dr Mike Martin, a military expert and war studies visiting fellow at King's College London has offered some interesting analysis this morning on the recent developments on the ground in Ukraine and what they could mean.

He suggests the Russian assault on Donbas has "fizzled" and that Moscow has squandered its one chance to take the region - and achieve something it could present as a successful outcome to the invasion.

Dr Martin says the battle will last another two to four weeks, as Russia runs out of troops and Ukraine counterattacks.

And, he says, the war has now seen "a major strategic shift" that has prompted the UK to outline a clearer and more ambitious strategic aim, citing UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss.

However, he indicates Ms Truss is wrong to predict the goal of evicting Russian forces entirely from Ukraine would take 10 years - saying "Russian forces will collapse before that, and we'll see a coup".

Read more: https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war- ... eblog-body

Five weeks have passed since Dr. Mike Martin made those predictions. While battered, the Russian army has not run out of troops, and they have actually focused most of their strength on conquering the Donbass region and are making progress.

Russian forces, backed by heavy artillery, control most of the eastern industrial city of Sievierodonetsk - now largely in ruins - after days of fierce fighting, Britain's defence ministry said in its daily intelligence report.

Ukraine's armed forces general staff said that besides its assault on the city, Russian troops were also attacking other parts of the east and northeast.

The capture of Sievierodonetsk and its smaller twin Lysychansk would give Russia control of all of Luhansk, one of two provinces along with Donetsk in the Donbas claimed by Moscow on behalf of separatists.

Seizing Luhansk would accomplish one of Russian President Vladimir Putin's stated aims and shift battlefield momentum further in Russia's favour after its forces were pushed back from the capital Kyiv and from northern Ukraine.

Moscow's forces were also attempting to advance south towards the Ukraine-held cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk in Donetsk province, provincial governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 022-06-02/

[caltrek]

The Russia-Ukraine War: A Battle of Beliefs
June 1, 2022

Introduction:

(Al Jazeera) Kyiv, Ukraine – As the 100th day of the Russia-Ukraine war approaches, many things have become crystal clear.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s concept of “the Russian World”, or the Kremlin’s right to “protect” ethnic Russians and Russian-speakers wherever they are has failed abysmally in Ukraine.

Putin’s claims that Russians and Ukrainians are “one people” are now rejected by nearly all Ukrainians – almost a decade after 85 percent of them said they “felt good” about Russia, and 16 percent wanted both nations to merge, according to a 2013 poll by the Kyiv International Sociology Institute.

Ukrainians are adamant that Putin’s plan to “de-Nazify” Kyiv and replace President Volodymyr Zelenskyy with a pro-Kremlin puppet will never come true.

Some on both sides came to a simple yet overwhelming conclusion that the war is mostly about their beliefs that could easily be seen as “religious”.

Read more here: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/ ... f-beliefs

The article goes on, among other things to suggest that the Ukrainians belief in democracy is "religious."

[caltrek]

The Evolution Of Russia’s Ukraine Strategy – Analysis
by Jose Miguel Alonso-Trabanco
June 1, 2022

Conclusion (after a fairly lengthy analysis):

(Eurasia Review) One way or another, mutual hostility will not subside because there are incompatible geopolitical interests and both sides are raising the stakes. In accordance with the worldview of the Realist intellectual tradition, the only way to prevent the conflict from spiraling out of control before it is too late would be to reach a negotiated settlement. Such alterative would not lead to everlasting peace but, in an imperfect world, it could provide a functional framework to manage rivalries so that there can be a reasonable degree of stability, a solution that continental European heavyweights like France and Germany could be inclined to favor. Russia would have to curtail the aggressiveness of its strategy and moderate its ambitions in exchange for reliable guarantees and, in turn, the West would have to make concessions and accept, based on a sober and dispassionate understanding of geopolitical realities, Russia as a force to be reckoned with. Nonetheless, a solution inspired by cool-headedness seems elusive, at least for the time being. Until attitudes change, the strong will do what they can and the weak will suffer what they must, as Thucydides wrote many centuries ago on the harsh nature of war.

Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/02062022 ... analysis/

Other quotable quotes from the piece:

Then again, the teachings of seminal authors like Sun Tzu and Machiavelli emphasize that, in order to get important things done, one must be willing to walk a dangerous path which can lead to either worldly glory or utter ruin. Indeed, statecraft can often be a deadly business.

After all, Russian strategic thinking wholeheartedly embraces the classical Machiavellian principle that it is better to be feared than loved if one cannot be both.

[weatheriscool]

Kremlin warns Biden sending rockets to Ukraine 'adding fuel to the fire'
Source: ABC News

The Kremlin said Wednesday that President Joe Biden's plans to send advanced rocket systems to Ukraine was "adding fuel to the fire."

"We know that the United States has been purposefully and meticulously adding fuel to the fire," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, according to the Russian news agency Interfax. "The United States pursues the course towards fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian."

Biden said Tuesday the U.S. would provide advanced rocket systems to help Ukraine defend itself, as Russia's invasion nears the 100-day mark.

"We have moved quickly to send Ukraine a significant amount of weaponry and ammunition so it can fight on the battlefield and be in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table," Biden wrote in an opinion piece in The New York Times. "That's why I've decided that we will provide the Ukrainians with more advanced rocket systems and munitions that will enable them to more precisely strike key targets on the battlefield in Ukraine.

Read more: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/kremlin ... d=85106529

[weatheriscool]

https://twitter.com/SlopeRocker/status/ ... 6941393922

This is Russian trash TV. They say all kinds of threatening and extreme things to appeal to the emotions of Russians and to (hopefully) intimidate Westerners.

Agreed.

Ignore it.

Russia is Winning the Economic War - and Putin is No Closer to Withdrawing Troops

by Larry Eliot
June 2, 2022

Introduction:

(The Guardian) It is now three months since the west launched its economic war against Russia, and it is not going according to plan. On the contrary, things are going very badly indeed.
Sanctions were imposed on Vladimir Putin not because they were considered the best option, but because they were better than the other two available courses of action: doing nothing or getting involved militarily.
The first set of economic measures were introduced immediately after the invasion, when it was assumed Ukraine would capitulate within days. That didn’t happen, with the result that sanctions – while still incomplete – have gradually been intensified.
There is, though, no immediate sign of Russia pulling out of Ukraine and that’s hardly surprising, because the sanctions have had the perverse effect of driving up the cost of Russia’s oil and gas exports, massively boosting its trade balance and financing its war effort. In the first four months of 2022, Putin could boast a current account surplus of $96bn (£76bn) – more than treble the figure for the same period of 2021.
When the EU announced its partial ban on Russian oil exports earlier this week, the cost of crude oil on the global markets rose, providing the Kremlin with another financial windfall. Russia is finding no difficulty finding alternative markets for its energy, with exports of oil and gas to China in April up more than 50% year on year.

Read more here: Russia is winning the economic war - a ... Guardian

The article does go on to acknowledge that the International Monetary Fund is estimating that Russia’s economy will “shrink by 8.5% this year. So, we have a scenario where everybody loses, except that the Russian people are somehow convinced through propaganda that the war needs to continue.

Mind you, I think they have lost the propaganda war outside of Russia in places like the Ukraine and, temporarily at least, much of Western Europe. Still, to continue the war, Putin only needs to win the propaganda war within their own country.

If this was the united states both the left and right would agree on burning down Washington dc and pulling the president out of the white house to hang them in a tree. It is only going to go on because it is russia and the people will accept seeing hundreds of thousands if not millions of their brothers dying in a retarded war. This is how retarded and brainwashed these people are!

[funkervogt]

This is a mirror of a paywalled Washington Post article: https://www.lankatimes.com/putin-thinks ... th-russia/

Putin thinks that his country can endure the privations of the Ukraine War longer than any Western country can. He might be right.

[Vakanai]

This is a mirror of a paywalled Washington Post article: https://www.lankatimes.com/putin-thinks ... th-russia/

Putin thinks that his country can endure the privations of the Ukraine War longer than any Western country can. He might be right.

Perhaps. But Russia's standing in the world has been shattered, and will remain so long after the war. Ukraine, which once felt friendly with Russia, will now hate Russia and be antagonistic to it for generations. Many of the sanctions on Russia may remain for months after the war. A few might even remain for a few years. Outside of sanctions, many European countries realize what a danger dependence on Russian gas truly is and will continue to move to obtain most if not all of their gas elsewhere from now on, hurting Russia's economy permanently.
Sure, Russia might be able to endure the privations of his war, but it will also have to endure the privations of the after war fallout as well. Basically, Putin has caused his nation irrevocable harm. But then, he's a dictator, he's never once cared about his country to begin with. Even if Russia couldn't endure, he wouldn't care. He sees his country as just a tool for his own "glory".

[raklian]

This is a mirror of a paywalled Washington Post article: https://www.lankatimes.com/putin-thinks ... th-russia/

Putin thinks that his country can endure the privations of the Ukraine War longer than any Western country can. He might be right.

Perhaps. But Russia's standing in the world has been shattered, and will remain so long after the war. Ukraine, which once felt friendly with Russia, will no hate Russia and be antagonistic to it for generations. Many of the sanctions on Russia may remain for months after the war. A few might even remain for a few years. Outside of sanctions, many European countries realize what a danger dependence on Russian gas truly is and will continue to move to obtain most if not all of their gas elsewhere from now on, hurting Russia's economy permanently.
Sure, Russia might be able to endure the privations of his war, but it will also have to endure the privations of the after war fallout as well. Basically, Putin has caused his nation irrevocable harm. But then, he's a dictator, he's never once cared about his country to begin with. Even if Russia couldn't endure, he wouldn't care. He sees his country as just a tool for his own "glory".

Yep. Russia may win the battle but lost the war, so to speak. Also, can Putin outlast his own cancer? Hmm... it might actually be the case of Ukraine putting up a fight for as long as it can until Putin gets done in by his own body.

[Vakanai]

This is a mirror of a paywalled Washington Post article: https://www.lankatimes.com/putin-thinks ... th-russia/

Putin thinks that his country can endure the privations of the Ukraine War longer than any Western country can. He might be right.

Perhaps. But Russia's standing in the world has been shattered, and will remain so long after the war. Ukraine, which once felt friendly with Russia, will no hate Russia and be antagonistic to it for generations. Many of the sanctions on Russia may remain for months after the war. A few might even remain for a few years. Outside of sanctions, many European countries realize what a danger dependence on Russian gas truly is and will continue to move to obtain most if not all of their gas elsewhere from now on, hurting Russia's economy permanently.
Sure, Russia might be able to endure the privations of his war, but it will also have to endure the privations of the after war fallout as well. Basically, Putin has caused his nation irrevocable harm. But then, he's a dictator, he's never once cared about his country to begin with. Even if Russia couldn't endure, he wouldn't care. He sees his country as just a tool for his own "glory".

Yep. Russia may win the battle but lost the war, so to speak. Also, can Putin outlast his own cancer? Hmm... it might actually be the case of Ukraine putting up a fight for as long as it can until Putin gets done in by his own body.

I hope he has cancer, I hope it guts him, I hope it's as slow, lingering, and above all as painful as cancer can get. But I also won't believe he's got it until he's dead and buried from it.

[raklian]

Perhaps. But Russia's standing in the world has been shattered, and will remain so long after the war. Ukraine, which once felt friendly with Russia, will no hate Russia and be antagonistic to it for generations. Many of the sanctions on Russia may remain for months after the war. A few might even remain for a few years. Outside of sanctions, many European countries realize what a danger dependence on Russian gas truly is and will continue to move to obtain most if not all of their gas elsewhere from now on, hurting Russia's economy permanently.
Sure, Russia might be able to endure the privations of his war, but it will also have to endure the privations of the after war fallout as well. Basically, Putin has caused his nation irrevocable harm. But then, he's a dictator, he's never once cared about his country to begin with. Even if Russia couldn't endure, he wouldn't care. He sees his country as just a tool for his own "glory".

Yep. Russia may win the battle but lost the war, so to speak. Also, can Putin outlast his own cancer? Hmm... it might actually be the case of Ukraine putting up a fight for as long as it can until Putin gets done in by his own body.

I hope he has cancer, I hope it guts him, I hope it's as slow, lingering, and above all as painful as cancer can get. But I also won't believe he's got it until he's dead and buried from it.

We know US intelligence is leaning towards Putin having cancer and likely dying from it. They haven't been able to confirm it with absolute certainty. Where there is smoke, there is fire, as the saying goes. Something is going on with Putin, that's for sure.

[funkervogt]

There is no real proof Putin has cancer or any other terminal disease.

[wjfox]

There is no real proof Putin has cancer or any other terminal disease.

It might explain the long desk he has meetings at. His immune system could be weakened.

[weatheriscool]

Ukraine has retaken about 20% of territory lost in Sievierodonetsk -regional head
Source: Reuters

June 3 (Reuters) - Ukrainian forces have recaptured around 20% of the territory they lost in the city of Sievierodonetsk during fighting with Russia, the head of the eastern region of Luhansk said on Friday.

"Whereas before the situation was difficult, the percentage (held by Russia) was somewhere around 70%, now we have already pushed them back by approximately 20%," Serhiy Gaidai told national television.

Russia has poured forces into the battle for the city which Moscow must capture to achieve its stated aim of holding all of Luhansk province. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Thursday said his country's forces had had some recent success there.

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk ... 022-06-03/

[raklian]

There is no real proof Putin has cancer or any other terminal disease.

Of course not, his doctors are too scared to leak any confidential medical information about him. Yet, rumors about him having cancer had to start from somewhere. Cancer or not, Putin doesn't look too well. This has an effect of him being perceived as getting weaker. You know what happens when a leader of an authoritarian country starts to look "weak." It usually doesn't end well for the leader.

[caltrek]

Zelensky Adviser Indicates a Temple in Ukraine's Sviatohirsk Lavra Monastery is on Fire After Russian Attack
by Katie Balevic
June 4, 2022

Introduction:

(Business Insider) Part of the Sviatohirsk Lavra is on fire after a Russian attack in Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast, a top Ukrainian adviser said on Saturday.

"The main temple of the Sviatohirsk Lavra, a shrine of the Orthodox world that has become a shelter for the refugees is on fire after (Russian) attack," said Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the head of the Office of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

A video of the temple, an Orthodox Christian monastery on the Seversky Donets River, engulfed in flames circulated on Saturday.

"A real devilish grin of the 'Russian barbaric world', for which nothing is sacred," Podolyak added in a tweet. "(Ukraine) will drive the devil back behind the Iron Curtain."

Read more here: https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine ... ck-2022-6

caltrek's comment: This is how the Russian government takes care of historic sites of "our people"?

...and please, no more explanations about how Russian troops could never do such a thing and that therefore it must have been done by Ukrainians.

[weatheriscool]

Explosions rock Ukraine's capital Kyiv, battle rages on in east
Source: Reuters

KYIV, June 5 (Reuters) - Kyiv was rocked by several explosions early on Sunday, the mayor of the Ukrainian capital said, a day after officials said its troops had recaptured a swath of the eastern battlefield city of Sievierodonetsk in a counter-offensive against Russia. "Several explosions in Darnytskyi and Dniprovskyi districts of the capital," Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko wrote on the Telegram messaging app. "Services are already working on site."

A Reuters witness saw smoke in the city after the explosions. At least one person was hospitalised but no deaths had been reported as of early Sunday, Klitschko said. Other officials said the Russian bombardment appeared to be targeting the railway network. Despite continuing Russian attacks on Ukraine and the widespread destruction, Kyiv has been relatively calm in recent weeks after Moscow turned its military focus to the east and south, especially an intense battle for Sievierodonetsk.

Russia has concentrated its forces on the factory city for one of the biggest ground battles of the war, with Moscow appearing to bet its campaign on capturing one of the two eastern provinces it claims on behalf of separatist proxies. Serhiy Gaidai, the governor of the Luhansk region that includes Sievierodonetsk, said on Sunday Ukrainian forces controlled about half the city after recapturing a large chunk from Russian troops.

"It had been a difficult situation, the Russians controlled 70% of the city, but over the past two days they have been pushed back," Gaidai said on Ukraine's television. "The city is now, more or less, divided in half." The claims could not be independently verified.

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ex ... 022-06-05/

[funkervogt]

Some Russian troops are relying on crowdfunding to buy basic pieces of personal equipment.

Images posted on Russian aviation Telegram channel Fighterbomber showed a series of radios, flashlights, binoculars and even pilot helmets, visors and oxygen masks that were funded or sourced by some of the channel's 125,000 subscribers.

In one image, a squadron of Russian pilots can be seen posing in front of what appears to be a worn Su-25 fighter jet with an assortment of crowdfunded equipment including their pilots' helmets.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... lians.html