Ukraine War Watch Thread

[Yuli Ban]

Russia has begun withdrawing its diplomatic staff from Ukraine, the Russian state-owned Ria Novosti news agency reported on Saturday amid mounting fears that Moscow will soon launch an invasion after months of military build-up on the borders with its neighbour.

"Russian diplomats and consular officers in Ukraine have begun to leave for Russia," Ria Novosti quoted a source as saying.

Russia has said it had no plans to invade Ukraine and has not officially announced the withdrawal of its diplomatic staff there, but the source said a reduction in personnel was indicated by the increased difficulty in obtaining appointments at Russia's embassy and consulates.

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]

[weatheriscool]

U.S. to send 3,000 additional troops to Poland
Source: Reuters

By Idrees Ali and Phil Stewart

WASHINGTON, Feb 12 (Reuters) - The United States will send 3,000 additional troops to Poland, Poland's Defence Minister said late on Friday, confirming an earlier Reuters report, as Russia held military exercises in Belarus and the Black Sea following the buildup of its forces near Ukraine.

The additional troops will be sent to Poland in the coming days, four U.S. officials told Reuters on Friday.

The deployment comes as Washington steps up warnings that Russia could be poised to invade Ukraine. Russia denies it plans to invade, saying it is defending its own security against aggression by NATO allies. read more

Polish Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczak wrote on Twitter late on Friday that Poland is ready to welcome the U.S. troops anytime.

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ex ... 022-02-11/

[wjfox]

UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has told the Sunday Times that Russia is now "highly likely" to invade Ukraine, and says there is a "whiff of Munich in the air", a reference to the appeasement of Germany during the late 1930s:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60366088

[caltrek]

Despite U.S. Warning of Imminent Invasion, Russia-Ukraine Crisis Narratives Differ
by Susan D’Agostino and John Mecklin
February 11, 2021

https://thebulletin.org/2022/02/get-out ... es-differ/

Extract:

(Bulletin of Atomic Scientists) In an online presentation called On Front Line World Briefing: War in Ukraine on Thursday, experts and journalists explained how and why the Russia-Ukraine crisis looked different to different observers, in and out of the country. Despite the warnings on Friday that US citizens should immediately depart Ukraine, considerable uncertainty about what would happen remained, in part because of Russia’s communications strategy.
…
“We keep talking about ‘if Russia invades,’” Antelava said. “We forget that Russia has already invaded. … Ukraine is home to Europe’s only active war zone.… We can’t let that slip out from the narrative.”
…
“People [in the West] talk about whether there’ll be a climb-down for Putin,” Reevell said. “In Russia, people don’t think he ever climbed up.” He notes the conflict “simply wasn’t in the media” in Russia until recently. Even now, as more Russians tune in, he says that many believe that the Western media has pushed a false narrative.

Meanwhile, Andrey Kurkov, a Ukrainian novelist who writes in Russian and Ukrainian, told a story of Ukrainians going about their normal lives. He spoke of Ukrainans who are embracing the spirit of widerstand—“resistance” in German—by filling their lives with more activity than usual. “I think it’s very important, actually, for Ukrainians to make plans for the summer.”

In summer, many Ukrainians enjoy barbeques—an activity President Zelensky promised citizens in January—even as the border conflict escalated.

[caltrek]

How the West Gets Ukraine Wrong
by Rorry Finnin

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... a-00007977

Extract:

(The Conversation) Putin, meanwhile, has gone to extraordinary lengths to allege that there is no such thing as a freestanding Ukrainian national identity. We need to be wise to the con. One of the many fronts of Russia’s war against Ukraine is informational. Time and again Putin has actively sought to push a narrative about Ukraine and Ukrainians as deeply, historically, spiritually embedded in the so-called Russian world. “Russians and Ukrainians,” he insisted last July, are “one people, a single whole.”

Putin’s assertion vividly illustrates a longstanding practice of refusing to frame Ukrainians as the subjects of their own story, of denying them a distinct historical trajectory and cultural agency of their own. Bolshevik leader Vladimir Lenin, of all people, understood this practice. “To ignore the importance of the national question in Ukraine,” he wrote, “means committing a profound and dangerous error.” Lenin spoke of this mistake as a common Russian “sin.”
…
Ukrainian bilingualism, in which both the Ukrainian and Russian languages can circulate in everyday life. Americans often misread this easy multilingualism, mistaking Ukraine’s linguistic diversity for linguistic adversity — as “Ukrainian speakers” vs. “Russian speakers.” In fact, most Ukrainians can qualify as both, depending on the context, and language use is no clear indicator of political sentiment in Ukraine today in any case. In fact, according to former President Petro Poroshenko, Russian speakers comprise the majority of the thousands of Ukrainian military personnel killed in the ongoing undeclared war with Russia.
…
Lenin’s Bolsheviks defeated the Ukrainian People’s Republic…but only after conceding that Ukraine was a nation deserving of a form of statehood, a concession that helped make Soviet victory possible along the non-Russian peripheries of the tsar’s former empire. After all, the Soviet Union was formally a union of national republics, and the Ukrainians were a central reason why.
…
In menacing Ukraine’s borders, Putin is not only betting that the West doesn’t care about Ukraine. He is also betting that the West doesn’t know or even see Ukraine.

[caltrek]

Politico recently ran a fairly long article on the situation in the Ukraine. There are a lot of points made from a somwhat diverse set of commentators about a fairly complicated topic, so I am not going to cite any extracts or an introduction. I will just leave a link to the article here: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... s-00000019

[caltrek]

We Must do Everything Possible to Avoid an Enormously Destructive War in Ukraine
by Bernie Sanders
February 8, 2022

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ar-ukraine

Extract:

(The Guardian) No one knows exactly what the human costs of such a war would be. But there are estimates that there could be over 50,000 civilian casualties in Ukraine, and millions of refugees flooding neighboring countries as they flee what could be the worst European conflict since the second world war. In addition, of course, there would be many thousands of deaths within the Ukrainian and Russian militaries. There is also the possibility that this “regional” war could escalate to other parts of Europe. What might happen then is even more horrifying.

But that’s not all. The sanctions against Russia and Russia’s threatened response to those sanctions, could result in massive economic upheaval – with impacts on energy, banking, food and the day-to-day needs of ordinary people throughout the entire world. It is likely that Russians will not be the only people suffering from sanctions. And, by the way, any hope of international cooperation to address the existential threat of global climate crisis and future pandemics would suffer a major setback.

We should be clear about who is most responsible for this looming crisis: Vladimir Putin. Having already seized parts of Ukraine in 2014, the Russian president now threatens to take over the entire country and destroy Ukrainian democracy. In my view, we must unequivocally support the sovereignty of Ukraine and make clear that the international community will impose severe consequences on Putin and his associates if he does not change course.

With that said, I am extremely concerned when I hear the familiar drumbeats in Washington, the bellicose rhetoric that gets amplified before every war, demanding that we must “show strength”, “get tough” and not engage in “appeasement”. A simplistic refusal to recognize the complex roots of the tensions in the region undermines the ability of negotiators to reach a peaceful resolution.
…
We must vigorously support diplomatic efforts to deescalate this crisis and reaffirm Ukrainian independence and sovereignty. And we must make clear that Putin and his gang of oligarchs will face major consequences should he continue down the current path. At the same time, we must never forget the horrors that a war in the region would cause and must work hard to achieve a realistic and mutually agreeable resolution – one that is acceptable to Ukraine, Russia, the United States and our European allies – and that prevents what could be the worst European war in over 75 years.

[caltrek]

Biden Tells Putin that Ukraine Invasion Would Cause "Irrevocable Damage"
by Erin Doherty and Zachary Basu
February 12, 2022

https://www.axios.com/biden-putin-russi ... 07e55.html

Introduction:

(Axios) The U.S. and allies will "respond decisively and impose swift and severe costs" if Russia invades Ukraine, President Biden told Russian President Vladimir Putin in a phone call on Saturday.

Driving the news: A senior administration official told reporters on a briefing call that the White House sensed "no fundamental change" in Russia's posture from the last several weeks.

Biden warned Putin that Russia would face "severe economic costs" and "irrevocable reputational damage caused by taking innocent lives for a bloody war," the official said.
The two sides agreed to stay engaged in the coming days, but the official cautioned that Russia may decide to invade anyway.
What they're saying: "President Biden reiterated that a further Russian invasion of Ukraine would produce widespread human suffering and diminish Russia’s standing," according to the White House.

[caltrek]

Biden and Zelensky Agree on Importance of "Diplomacy and Deterrence" Amid Russia Buildup
February 13, 2022

https://www.axios.com/biden-zelensky-ph ... 6c28e.html

Entire Article:

(Axios) President Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday "agreed on the importance of continuing to pursue diplomacy and deterrence," the White House said in a readout of the call.

Why it matters: The 50-minute call comes a day after Biden spoke by phone with Vladimir Putin, warning the Russian president that the U.S. and allies will "respond decisively and impose swift and severe costs" if Russia invades Ukraine.

State of play: Biden and Zelensky have not always been on the same page regarding how "imminent" the threat of a Russian invasion might be.

• "We have seen over the course of the past 10 days a dramatic acceleration in the buildup of Russian forces," National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on "Face the Nation" Sunday.

• He said "the disposition of those forces" suggests Russia could attack "essentially at any time." But, "it still awaits the go order."

• Biden "made clear that the United States would respond swiftly and decisively, together with its Allies and partners, to any further Russian aggression against Ukraine," according to a readout of the call.

[caltrek]

Ukraine Conflict Exposes Dangers of a New Cold War
by Cain Burdeau
February 11, 2022

https://www.courthousenews.com/ukraine- ... -cold-war/

Extract:

(Courthouse News) “It is worth recalling that this part of Europe enjoyed almost 70 years of uninterrupted peace since World War II – until the U.S. and EU intervened directly in Ukraine’s internal affairs to orchestrate a de facto political coup,” (Tina) Jennings (scholar at the Center for Russian & Eurasian Studies at St. Antony’s College, Oxford University) said in an email.

She said Yanukovich had been democratically elected and was forced out of office by the interference in Ukraine’s domestic politics of U.S. President Barack Obama and his allies in Congress.

Yanukovich incurred the wrath of the U.S. and many in Ukraine after he ditched a deal, under pressure from Russian President Vladimir Putin, sealing a pact of cooperation with the EU. After his removal, Ukraine's new anti-Russian and pro-Western government signed the pact, accelerating Ukraine's path towards inclusion into the EU and the NATO club.

“It is important to call this event what it was: a violent coup, in the center of Europe, in the 21st century,” Jennings said. “This dramatic chain of events culminated in Russia annexing Crimea within weeks, in a swift, bloodless takeover, a territorial annexation that is highly unlikely to ever be reversed (due to the fact that it is the home port of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet).”

…The problem, though, is that Putin, a tsar-like leader seeking to keep his country's vast imperial territories intact, and the country's elite are determined to not let Ukraine become what they see as a potential nightmare on Russia's crucial southern border: A NATO-armed foe espousing anti-Russian rhetoric and fomenting anti-Russian sentiment across a fractured and war-torn Russia at risk of coming further unglued by ethnic, religious, political and regional conflicts.

A Ukrainian tank moves during military drills near Kharkiv, Ukraine, on Thursday, Feb. 10, 2022.
AP Photo/Andrew Marienko

[andmar74]

Ukraine Conflict Exposes Dangers of a New Cold War
by Cain Burdeau
February 11, 2022

https://www.courthousenews.com/ukraine- ... -cold-war/

Extract:

(Courthouse News) “It is worth recalling that this part of Europe enjoyed almost 70 years of uninterrupted peace since World War II – until the U.S. and EU intervened directly in Ukraine’s internal affairs to orchestrate a de facto political coup,” (Tina) Jennings (scholar at the Center for Russian & Eurasian Studies at St. Antony’s College, Oxford University) said in an email.

She said Yanukovich had been democratically elected and was forced out of office by the interference in Ukraine’s domestic politics of U.S. President Barack Obama and his allies in Congress.

Yanukovich incurred the wrath of the U.S. and many in Ukraine after he ditched a deal, under pressure from Russian President Vladimir Putin, sealing a pact of cooperation with the EU. After his removal, Ukraine's new anti-Russian and pro-Western government signed the pact, accelerating Ukraine's path towards inclusion into the EU and the NATO club.

“It is important to call this event what it was: a violent coup, in the center of Europe, in the 21st century,” Jennings said. “This dramatic chain of events culminated in Russia annexing Crimea within weeks, in a swift, bloodless takeover, a territorial annexation that is highly unlikely to ever be reversed (due to the fact that it is the home port of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet).”

…The problem, though, is that Putin, a tsar-like leader seeking to keep his country's vast imperial territories intact, and the country's elite are determined to not let Ukraine become what they see as a potential nightmare on Russia's crucial southern border: A NATO-armed foe espousing anti-Russian rhetoric and fomenting anti-Russian sentiment across a fractured and war-torn Russia at risk of coming further unglued by ethnic, religious, political and regional conflicts.

A Ukrainian tank moves during military drills near Kharkiv, Ukraine, on Thursday, Feb. 10, 2022.
AP Photo/Andrew Marienko

Talk about manipulating history. Now it sounds like Putin is the good guy.

[Yuli Ban]

Key points:

• Kyiv says the meeting to discuss the build-up of Russian troops will occur in 48 hours
• A Kremlin spokesman says relations with the United States are "lying on the floor"
• Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz is demanding an immediate de-escalation from Russia

[Yuli Ban]

Russia's navy held anti-submarine drills in the Black Sea on Monday as fighter jets patrolled its border with ally Belarus in the latest displays of heightened military activity close to Ukraine.

The United States on Sunday said Russia could invade Ukraine at any time and might create a surprise pretext for an attack, as it reaffirmed a pledge to defend "every inch" of NATO territory. Russia has accused the West of hysteria. read more

The Kremlin acknowledged that Moscow-Washington relations were "on the floor".

[Yuli Ban]

Russia's main stock market and the ruble clawed back some losses on Monday after the foreign minister said there was a "chance" of reaching an agreement on security with the West.

The RTS index was down just over 2% in late afternoon trading, as other world markets also came off their lows.

It had dipped more than 4% in earlier trading, as Western countries feared Moscow was preparing for an imminent invasion of Ukraine.

[Yuli Ban]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday declared that Wednesday will be a day of unity, as he addressed reports that a Russian invasion of his country could begin that day.

The comments from the Ukrainian leader, made in an address to his nation posted on Facebook, come amid heightened tensions between Kyiv and Moscow. The Biden administration had warned on Friday that an attack on Ukraine could be imminent.

Zelensky wrote in the statement on Facebook that the decree declaring a day of unity had already been signed.

“We are told that February 16 will be the day of the attack," he said, according to a Facebook translation of his comments.

[Yuli Ban]

Russia’s ambassador to the EU has said Moscow would be within its rights to launch a “counterattack” if it felt it needed to protect Russian citizens living in eastern Ukraine.

The comments in an interview with the Guardian will do little to calm fears of a major Russian assault on Ukraine, given one of the key scenarios suggested by western intelligence was Russia launching a “false-flag” operation to provide a pretext for invasion.

“We will not invade Ukraine unless we are provoked to do that,” said Vladimir Chizhov, who has represented Russia in Brussels since 2005. “If the Ukrainians launch an attack against Russia, you shouldn’t be surprised if we counterattack. Or, if they start blatantly killing Russian citizens anywhere – Donbas or wherever.”

[Yuli Ban]

Poland, the largest European Union nation to border Ukraine, is making preparations to accept Ukrainian refugees in the event of another Russian attack on that country. But the Polish government hopes that worst-case scenario can be averted.

Similar preparations are being made across the region, particularly in those nations which share borders with Ukraine.

As other countries draw down their diplomatic missions in Ukraine, Poland says it is for now keeping its diplomatic operations in place in case they are needed to facilitate a large-scale exit of Ukrainians.

Poland, which has welcomed large numbers of Ukrainian economic migrants in recent years, particularly after Russia’s incursions into Ukraine in 2014, has been making plans for weeks to accept refugees if it comes to that, said Marcin Przydacz, a deputy foreign minister.

While Poland has an image of being staunchly anti-refugee, that opposition is largely based on not wanting to take in large numbers of people of different religious and racial backgrounds.