Future Timeline

From 2001 - 2021, energy consumption in the U.S. was flat overall, leading to predictions that energy consumption would start a long decline thanks to further efficiency improvements. This, in turn, was good news for environmentalists, since it made carbon emission reduction goals feasible.

However, recent growth in the AI sector and in cryptocurrency mining have overturned that long running trend, and the new forecasts show resumed growth in U.S. energy consumption to at least 2050. A disproportionate share of this growth will involve electricity, meaning much more strain on the electrical grid. Higher electricity prices for consumers and the sacrifice of climate change goals are likely second-order outcomes.

https://css.umich.edu/publications/fact ... -factsheet
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=56040
https://liftoff.energy.gov/vpp/

It's fascinating and a bit scary to see how long-running trends like this that shape our expectations about the future can stop or reverse so quickly. Additionally, in just the last four years, the assumption that there would never be another major war in Europe and that inflation had been forever tamed in the U.S. ("the Great Moderation") have also been proven wrong.

funkervogt wrote: ↑Wed Mar 20, 2024 3:27 pm It's fascinating and a bit scary to see how long-running trends like this that shape our expectations about the future can stop or reverse so quickly. Additionally, in just the last four years, the assumption that there would never be another major war in Europe and that inflation had been forever tamed in the U.S. ("the Great Moderation") have also been proven wrong.

I have the same feeling about birthrates predictions once governments around the world really toughen on that, especially those in which immigration is a no-no.

Powers wrote: ↑Wed Mar 20, 2024 10:19 pm

funkervogt wrote: ↑Wed Mar 20, 2024 3:27 pm It's fascinating and a bit scary to see how long-running trends like this that shape our expectations about the future can stop or reverse so quickly. Additionally, in just the last four years, the assumption that there would never be another major war in Europe and that inflation had been forever tamed in the U.S. ("the Great Moderation") have also been proven wrong.

I have the same feeling about birthrates predictions once governments around the world really toughen on that, especially those in which immigration is a no-no.

Yes, I think things will change once we have longevity technology, better reproductive technology, machine caretakers, and mass technological unemployment/UBI. It will be easier to have kids, so birthrates will climb. Unfortunately, it will be happening in an era when humans are less useful than ever.

funkervogt wrote: ↑Thu Mar 21, 2024 3:29 pm Unfortunately, it will be happening in an era when humans are less useful than ever.

I don't know, as I once read somewhere maybe children are the best pension in times of turmoil.