Future Timeline

Ana became the first storm of the Atlantic hurricane season at the end of last week. It obtained tropical storm status with maximum sustained winds reaching 45mph.

This is the seventh year in succession where the first storm of the Atlantic hurricane season has formed before the official start of the season which is 1 June. The earlier formation of storms is largely down to sea surface temperatures reaching 27C – the level needed for tropical storms to form – earlier in the year due to climate change.

Tropical Storm Bill strengthened again Tuesday morning as it continued its northern journey away from the United States, the National Hurricane Center said in its 11 a.m. update.

The storm is expected to be short-lived as it heads into cooler waters, meanwhile, the NHC is keeping its eyes on two other storms with tropical potential; one is likely to become the next tropical depression toward the end of the week.

The disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Claudette before making landfall in Louisiana, forecasters said Friday morning.

Heavy rains and gusty winds have started to reach the Gulf Coast as of 10 a.m., forecasters said, and are expected to increase throughout the day.

A tropical storm warning is in effect from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in Florida. The warning includes metro New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

ATLANTA (AP) — Eight children in a van from a youth home for abused or neglected children were killed in a fiery multi-vehicle crash on a wet interstate that also killed a man and his baby in another vehicle, the most devastating blow from a tropical depression that claimed 12 lives in Alabama as it caused flash floods and spurred tornadoes that destroyed dozens of homes.

The crash happened Saturday about 35 miles (55 kilometers) south of Montgomery on Interstate 65 after vehicles likely hydroplaned on wet roads, said Butler County Coroner Wayne Garlock.

The van, containing children ages 4 to 17, belonged to the Tallapoosa County Girls Ranch, a youth home operated by the Alabama Sheriffs Association. Michael Smith, the youth ranches CEO, said the van was heading back to the ranch near Camp Hill, northeast of Montgomery, after a week at the beach in the Gulf Shores. It caught fire after the wreck and Candice Gulley, the ranch director, was the van’s only survivor — pulled from the flames by a bystander.

Gulley remained hospitalized Sunday in Montgomery in serious but stable condition. “She’s going to survive her physical injuries,” Smith said. Two of the dead in the van were Gulley’s children, ages 4 and 16. Four others were ranch residents and two were guests, Smith said.

Tropical Storm Elsa has formed in the Atlantic Ocean and is expected to barrel toward the Caribbean by Friday, where warnings have been issued for the Windward and Leeward Islands. Residents of the Caribbean and Florida should track the progress of Elsa closely through the holiday weekend.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Elsa was centered more than 800 miles east of the Windward Islands as of early Thursday. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for parts of the Windward and Leeward Islands, where tropical storm force conditions (winds of at least 39 mph) are expected on Friday. Those areas are shown in red on the map below.

Any tropical storm watches in effect are shown in yellow in the map below, meaning tropical storm conditions are possible in these areas on Friday.

Elsa is tracking quickly westward at 25 mph. That should allow it to arrive in the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by Friday as a strong tropical storm. The NHC says rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals up to 8 inches are possible in the Windward and southern Leeward Islands Friday. This could lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. That said, the system's fast forward speed will limit the heavy rain threat that might otherwise be greater.

HAVANA (AP) — Cuba evacuated 70,000 people along the island’s southern region on Sunday amid fears that Tropical Storm Elsa could unleash heavy flooding after battering several Caribbean islands, killing at least three people.

The Cuban government had opened shelters and moved to protect sugarcane and cocoa crops ahead of the storm. Most of those evacuated went to relatives’ homes, while about 23,000 people sheltered at government facilities. Some 400 living in mountainous areas took refuge in natural caves that had been prepared for the emergency.

The storm’s next target was Florida, where Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 15 counties, including in Miami-Dade County where the high-rise condominium building collapsed last week.

On Sunday morning, Elsa was located about 50 miles (80 kilometers) north of Kingston, Jamaica, and was heading west-northwest at 13 mph (20 kph). It had maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph (95 kph), according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.