Will Paris Agreement Succeed? Research Assesses if Governments will Make Pledges a Reality September 1, 2022
Introduction:
(EurekAlert) Much of the world’s efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change hinge on the success of the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement. A new Nature Climate Change study is the first to provide scientific evidence assessing how effective governments will be at implementing their commitments to the agreement that will reduce CO2 emissions causing climate change.
The research reveals that the countries with the boldest pledges are also the most likely to achieve their goals. Europe takes the lead with the strongest commitments that are also the most credible; however, findings suggest the U.S., despite having a less ambitious commitment under Paris, is not expected to meet its pledges.
The study from the University of California San Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy integrates a novel sample of registrants of the Conference of Parties (COP), consisting of more than 800 diplomatic and scientific experts who, for decades, have participated in climate policy debates. This expert group was important to survey because they are the people “in the room” when key policy decisions are made and therefore in a unique position to evaluate what their countries and other countries are likely to achieve.
They were asked to rate member nations—their own country included—to gauge pledge ambition, which is how much each country has pledged to do to mitigate global warming, in comparison to what they feasibly could do, given their economic strength, to avert a climate crisis. They also were asked to evaluate the degree to which nations have pledges that are credible.
“The pledges outlined in the accords are legally non-binding, thus the success of the agreement centers around confidence in the system that when governments make promises, they are going to live up those promises,” said the study’s lead author David Victor, professor of industrial innovation at UC San Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy and co-director of the Deep Decarbonization Initiative.
caltrek’s comment: It should be noted that the study was completed prior to the enactment of the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States. Still, the study’s lead author opines that the act “doesn’t deliver the same investment many other counties have already committed.”
A New Study Finds Social Cost of Carbon Is More Than Triple the Current Federal Estimate September 1, 2022
Introduction:
(EurekAlert) After years of robust modeling and analysis, a multi-institutional team led by researchers from Resources for the Future (RFF) and the University of California, Berkeley (UC Berkeley), has released an updated social cost of carbon estimate that reflects new methodologies and key scientific advancements. The study, published today in the journal Nature, finds that each additional ton of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere costs society $185 per ton—3.6 times the current US federal estimate of $51 per ton.
The social cost of carbon is a critical metric that measures the economic damages, in dollars, that result from the emission of one additional ton of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. A high social cost of carbon can motivate more stringent climate policies, as it increases the estimated benefits of reducing greenhouse gases.
“Our estimate, which draws on recent advances in the scientific and economic literature, shows that we are vastly underestimating the harm of each additional ton of carbon dioxide that we release into the atmosphere,” said RFF President and CEO Richard G. Newell, who coauthored the peer-reviewed paper. “The implication is that the benefits of government policies and other actions that reduce global warming pollution are greater than has been assumed.”
The study, led by UC Berkeley Associate Professor David Anthoff and RFF Fellow Kevin Rennert, brought together leading researchers from institutions across the United States to develop important updates to social cost of carbon modeling. These advances include consideration of the probability of different socioeconomic and emissions trajectories far into the future; the incorporation of a modern representation of the climate system; and state-of-the-art scientific methodologies for assessing the effects of climate change on agriculture, temperature-related deaths, energy expenditures, and sea-level rise. The estimate also takes into account an updated approach to evaluating future climate risks through ‘discounting’ that is linked to future economic uncertainty. The $185-per-ton value is the central estimate of many that includes the inherent uncertainty in these trajectories.
A 'doomsday glacier' the size of Florida is disintegrating faster than thought
Source: Washington Post
Thwaites Glacier, known as the “doomsday glacier” for the risk it poses to global sea levels, is retreating faster than previously thought, study shows
A large glacier in Antarctica that could raise sea levels several feet is disintegrating faster than last predicted, according to a new study published Monday in the journal Nature Geoscience.
The Thwaites Glacier — dubbed the “doomsday glacier” because scientists estimate that without it and its supporting ice shelves, sea levels could rise more than 3 to 10 feet — lies in the western part of the continent. After recently mapping it in high-resolution, a group of international researchers found that the glacial expanse experienced a phase of “rapid retreat” sometime in the past two centuries — over a duration of less than six months.
According to a news release accompanying the study, researchers concluded that the glacier had “lost contact with a seabed ridge” and is now retreating at a speed of 1.3 miles per year — a rate double what they predicted between 2011 and 2019.
Unlike some other glaciers that are connected to dry land, Thwaites is grounded in the seabed, making it more vulnerable to warming waters as a result of human-induced climate change. Thwaites already accounts for about 4 percent of annual sea level rise.
Crucial Antarctic ice shelf could fail within five years, scientists say
“You can’t take away Thwaites and leave the rest of Antarctica intact,” said Alastair Graham, a marine geologist at the University of South Florida and the co-author of the study, in a phone interview.
He described the consequences of losing Thwaites “existential.”
According to the United Nations, more than 40 percent of the world’s human population lives within 60 miles of the coast — areas that will be hit hard by rising tides.
In the past 50 years, the oceans have absorbed more than 90% of the excess heat caused by our carbon dioxide emissions, with one ocean absorbing the vast majority.
"The Southern Ocean dominates this ocean heat uptake, due in part to the geographic set-up of the region," said UNSW Ph.D. candidate Maurice Huguenin, the lead author of the new study published today in Nature Communications.
"Antarctica, which is surrounded by the Southern Ocean, is also surrounded by strong westerly winds," Mr Huguenin said.
"These winds influence how the waters absorb heat, and around Antarctica they can exert this influence while remaining uninterrupted by land masses—this is key to the Southern Ocean being responsible for pretty much all of the net global ocean heat uptake," he said.
Mr Huguenin said that these winds blow over what is effectively an infinite distance—cycling uninterrupted at southern latitudes—which continuously draws cold water masses to the surface. The waters are pushed northward, readily absorbing vast quantities of heat from the atmosphere, before the excess heat is pumped into the ocean's interior around 45–55°S.
But, while ocean warming helps slow the pace of climate change, it is not without cost said co-author Professor Matthew England at UNSW Science and Deputy Director of ACEAS.
Rising seas could swallow millions of U.S. acres within decades
Source: Washington Post
Researchers at Climate Central took scientific data on projected sea level rise, as well as information about state tidal boundaries, and combined that with records on more than 50 million individual properties across hundreds of U.S. counties to identify parcels most likely at risk.
Their conclusion: Nearly 650,000 individual, privately owned parcels, across as many as 4.4 million acres of land, are projected to fall below changing tidal boundaries by 2050. The land affected could swell to 9.1 million acres by 2100. According to Thursday’s analysis, properties with a collective assessed value of $108 billion could be affected by the end of the century, based on current emissions. But, the authors noted, because complete property values were not available for all counties, the actual total is likely to be far higher.
The changes also could come gradually at first, then quickly. In many communities, the authors wrote, structures are clustered in areas that historically are on safe ground. But once rising seas reach those densely developed elevations, “the number of affected buildings sharply increases.”
“As the sea is rising, tide lines are moving up elevation, upslope and inland,” said Don Bain, a senior adviser at Climate Central and an expert in sea level rise, who led the analysis. “People really haven’t internalized that yet — that ‘Hey, I’m going to have something taken away from me by the sea.’ ”
Climate tipping points of coral die-off, ice sheet collapse closer than thought
Source: Reuters
Five tipping points — the disintegration of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, coral reef die-offs, collapse of the Labrador-Irminger Seas convection and abrupt permafrost thaw — could happen now, the team finds.
Arctic permafrost thaw would release huge amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. Coral reef die-offs would obliterate the marine food web.
"At the moment, they are possible rather than likely," McKay stressed, but he added, "it's definitely concerning."
At 1.5C of warming, another five tipping points would be reachable.
How King Charles III Might Rule by Jen Kirby
September 8, 2022
Introduction:
(Vox) At the COP26 climate conference last year in Glasgow, Scotland, then-Prince Charles warned world leaders that they must adopt a “war-like footing” to deal with the global threat of climate change and biodiversity loss.
Charles has made similar pleas since and in the years before; he has championed environmental causes since it was a bit unusual for someone in his public position to do so. And now, he may be among the most prominent figures to take up the cause, as he ascends the throne following the death of his mother, Queen Elizabeth II.
Further extract:
There are many questions about what this leadership will look like, but as experts said, Charles has a lot of credibility at least on this global issue, as he’s been warning about climate change since the 1990s. The challenge, Owens said, is that King Charles doesn’t have any real political power, and ultimately, to tackle climate change, governments are going to need to make tough policy choices and act. But the monarchy can also draw on its soft power — for example, state dinners or visits — to try to advocate for climate action. And of course, by reorienting the monarchy around this global issue, it is a way for the institution to stay relevant and maybe even necessary.
Source of the River Thames moves fives miles for first time in its history
16:12, 5 AUG 2022
The source of the River Thames has moved five miles downstream for the first time in its history. While parts of the riverbed in Gloucestershire regularly dry out during the summer, experts said it was a worrying sign of the impact of the climate crisis to see the Thames begin flowing so far downstream.
It comes after weeks of dry spells, and temperatures reaching in excess of 40C in parts of the UK last month.
Christine Colvin, advocacy and engagement director of the Rivers Trust, said: "What we're seeing at the source of the iconic River Thames is sadly emblematic of the situation we're facing across the country, now and in future. Whilst it's not uncommon for the source to be dry in the summer, to only be seeing the river flowing five miles downstream is unprecedented.
"The climate crisis is leading, and will lead, to more extreme weather including droughts and heatwaves. This poses a grave threat to rivers and, as a result, the wider landscape."
The Rivers Trust is calling for accelerated metering, rapid reduction in leakage, support for households to reduce water usage, such as installing low flow toilets and water butts, and sustainable drainage including rain gardens, wetlands and permeable paving to build up local stores of water underground. The source of the Thames has moved east from Kemble, just south of Cirencester, to beyond Somerford Keynes.
Decarbonizing the Energy System by 2050 Could Save Trillions, Says new Oxford Study
September 13, 2022
Introduction:
(EurekAlert)
• New study shows a fast transition to clean energy is cheaper than slow or no transition
• Idea that going green will be expensive is ‘just wrong’
• Green technology costs have fallen significantly over the last decade, and are likely to continue falling
• Achieving a net zero carbon energy system by around 2050 is possible and profitable
Transitioning to a decarbonised energy system by around 2050 is expected to save the world at least $12 trillion, compared to continuing our current levels of fossil fuel use, according to a peer-reviewed study by Oxford University researchers, published in the journal Joule today.
The monthly GISTEMP surface temperature analysis update has been posted. The global mean temperature anomaly for August 2022 was 0.95°C above the 1951-1980 August average. https://go.nasa.gov/2PakncL
August 2022 https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monito ... bal/202208
The August 2022 global surface temperature departure was the sixth highest for August in the 143-year record at 0.90°C (1.62°F) above the 20th century average of 15.6°C (60.1°F). The ten warmest Augusts on record have all occurred since 2009. August 2022 also marked the 46th consecutive August and the 452nd consecutive month with temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th century average.
Seasonal Temperature: June–August 2022
The June–August 2022 global surface temperature was 0.89°C (1.60°F) above the 20th-century average of 15.6°C (60.1°F). This ranks as the fifth-warmest June-August period in the 143-year record, tied with the June–August periods of 2015 and 2017. This is 0.05°C (0.09°F) cooler than the warmest June–August period (2016). The five warmest June–August periods have occurred from 2015 to present.
The January–August global surface temperature was 0.86°C (1.55°F) above the 1901-2000 average of 14.0°C (57.3°F) — the sixth-highest January–August temperature in the 143-year record. The ten warmest January–August periods on record have occurred since 2010. According to NCEI's statistical analysis, the year 2022 is very likely to rank among the ten warmest years on record but only has a 10.4% chance to rank among the five warmest years on record.
Scientists looking at the meteorological impacts of climate change have typically looked at increases in severe weather and hurricanes. Now, they are studying another consequence of global warming that will have significant economic ramifications: drought.
Researchers at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Argonne National Laboratory have developed a new method to assess the likelihood of extreme drought conditions in several different regions of the United States over the remainder of the century. Using this method, based on highly detailed regional climate models, they have found that droughts are likely to be exacerbated by global warming. This finding is especially likely in regions like the Midwest, Northwestern U.S. and California's Central Valley.
"The projected worsening of droughts as a result of global warming is likely to have significant consequences in terms of crop loss, wildfires, and demand for water resources," said Rao Kotamarthi, an Argonne environmental scientist and author of the new study.
In looking at future forecasts of droughts over the course of the remainder of the century, the researchers believe the new technique can help them to understand "flash drought" events that have a quick onset period that could be as short as few weeks. "Flash droughts, as their name implies, happen really quickly," Kotamarthi said. "While conventional droughts are related to a prolonged lack of precipitation, flash droughts occur because of high temperatures and extremely high evaporation rates."
Since 2007, the world's atmospheric methane concentration has risen at an accelerated rate, but scientists aren't exactly sure why. This is a problem, because methane is a particularly potent greenhouse gas. It has more than 80 times the warming power of carbon dioxide during its first 20 years in the atmosphere, and it accounts for about 30% of global warming since preindustrial times.
To better understand methane's recent climb and how to mitigate it, scientists are trying to collect more accurate measurements of methane's sources, both human and natural. In a new study published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Shaw et al. find that tropical wetlands, which are responsible for about a fifth of the world's methane emissions, are releasing significantly more methane than previously thought.
Methane emissions from tropical wetlands are poorly studied, especially in Africa. The researchers set out to help fill this data gap with the first-ever airborne surveys of methane released from wetlands in Zambia, focusing on three of the country's large wetland areas: Bangweulu, Kafue, and Lukanga. They used the United Kingdom's Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements, a British Aerospace 146 aircraft fitted with a scientific measurement laboratory, to sample environmental data. And to estimate methane emissions, they applied three approaches at each wetland site: airborne mass balance, airborne eddy covariance, and atmospheric inversion.
Patagonia's Billionaire Founder Donates His Company to Fight Climate Change by Brandon Gage
September 14, 2022
Introduction:
(Alternet) The 83-year-old founder of the outdoor-themed clothing brand Patagonia and his family have given away ownership of the three-billion-dollar conglomerate so that its profits can be used to fund efforts to protect the environment.
Yvon Chouinard, renowned for his aversion to material wealth and passion for nature, established "a specially designed trust and a nonprofit organization" that "were created to preserve the company’s independence and ensure that all of its profits — some $100 million a year — are used to combat climate change and protect undeveloped land around the globe," The New York Times reported on Wednesday.
"The unusual move comes at a moment of growing scrutiny for billionaires and corporations, whose rhetoric about making the world a better place is often overshadowed by their contributions to the very problems they claim to want to solve," the outlet noted.
“Hopefully this will influence a new form of capitalism that doesn’t end up with a few rich people and a bunch of poor people. We are going to give away the maximum amount of money to people who are actively working on saving this planet," Chouinard said in an exclusive interview with the Times.
"In August, the family irrevocably transferred all the company’s voting stock, equivalent to 2 percent of the overall shares, into a newly established entity known as the Patagonia Purpose Trust," the Times explained.
Molecular fossils and machine learning have enabled scientists to build the first charts of Antarctic ocean temperatures over the past 45 million years, offering important insights into future sea level changes.
The team, led by scientists from Victoria University of Wellington (NZ) and Birmingham (UK) say their results suggest we are nearing a "tipping point" where ocean warming caused by atmospheric CO2 will cause catastrophic rises in sea levels because of melting ice sheets. Their results are published today (September 15, 2022) in Nature Geoscience.
In the study, the team examined molecular fossils from core samples taken during ocean drilling projects. The fossil remains are in fact single lipid (insoluble in water) molecules produced by archaea—single-celled organisms which are similar to bacteria. The archaea adjust the composition of their outer membrane lipids in response to changing sea temperatures. By studying these changes, scientists can draw conclusions about the ancient sea temperature which would have surrounded a particular sample as it died.
Most Aggressive Climate Change Action in Nation Now Law in California by Natalie Hanson
September 16, 2022
Introduction:
VALLEJO, Calif. (Courthouse News) — California Governor Gavin Newsom signed an expansive package of bills Friday earmarking billions to tackle climate change.
Standing in Solano County on Friday, Newsom highlighted a record $54 billion climate investment in this year’s budget. He signed 40 bills recently passed by the Legislature including Assembly Bill 1279, the California Climate Crisis Act. It codifies policy to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2045 and ensures that by the same year human-caused greenhouse gas emissions are reduced to at least 85% below 1990 levels.
He also approved Senate Bill 1020, the Clean Energy, Jobs and Affordability Act of 2022. This bill makes the California Air Resources Board responsible for monitoring and regulating sources of greenhouse gasses, planning for “maximum technologically feasible and cost-effective reductions in greenhouse gas emissions” and conducting public workshops — including for communities of color and low-income communities. It also sets interim targets to reach 100% carbon neutrality by 2045 — with goals to reach 90% neutrality by 2030 and 95% by 2040.
The poles are warming several times faster than the global average, causing record smashing heatwaves that were reported earlier this year in both the Arctic and Antarctic. Melting ice and collapsing glaciers at high latitudes would accelerate sea level rise around the planet. Fortunately, refreezing the poles by reducing incoming sunlight would be both feasible and remarkably cheap, according to new research published today in Environmental Research Communications.
Scientists laid out a possible future program whereby high-flying jets would spray microscopic aerosol particles into the atmosphere at latitudes of 60 degrees north and south—roughly Anchorage and the southern tip of Patagonia. If injected at a height of 43,000 feet (above airliner cruising altitudes), these aerosols would slowly drift poleward, slightly shading the surface beneath. "There is widespread and sensible trepidation about deploying aerosols to cool the planet," notes lead author Wake Smith, "but if the risk/benefit equation were to pay off anywhere, it would be at the poles."
Particle injections would be performed seasonally in the long days of the local spring and early summer. The same fleet of jets could service both hemispheres, ferrying to the opposite pole with the change of seasons.
Pre-existing military air-to-air refueling tankers such as the aged KC-135 and the A330 MMRT don't have enough payload at the required altitudes, whereas newly designed high-altitude tankers would prove much more efficient. A fleet of roughly 125 such tankers could loft a payload sufficient to cool the regions poleward of 60°N/S by 2°C per year, which would return them close to their pre-industrial average temperatures. Costs are estimated at $11 billion annually—less than one-third the cost of cooling the entire planet by the same 2°C magnitude and a tiny fraction of the cost of reaching net zero emissions.
