Climate Change News & Discussions

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https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monito ... bal/202413

The year 2024 was the warmest year since global records began in 1850 at 1.29°C (2.32°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F). This value is 0.10°C (0.18°F) more than the previous record set last year. The ten warmest years in the 175-year record have all occurred during the last decade (2015–2024). Of note, the year 2005, which was the first year to set a new global temperature record in the 21st century, is now the 13th-warmest year on record. The year 2010, which had surpassed 2005 at the time, now ranks as the 12th-warmest year on record.
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Global Mean Temperature Prediction for 2025

Posted on January 10, 2025 by Robert Rohde

[...]

Based on historical variability and current conditions, it is possible to roughly estimate what global mean temperature might be expected in 2025. Our current estimate is that 2025 is likely to be cooler than 2024. With the end of the 2023/2024 El Niño and the shift towards a weak La Niña, it is likely that 2025 will cool relative to 2024 and 2023. As a result, we expect that 2025 will be roughly the 3rd warmest year in the instrumental record. However, the newly formed La Niña is expected to be weak, and a return to El Niño by the end of 2025 is possible. The swings from El Niño to La Niña and back again are the largest source of predictable interannual variability in the global temperature record.

Estimated probabilities of annual average rank in 2025:

1st place: 6%
2nd place: 19%
3rd place: 63%
4th – 6th place: 11%
7th place or lower: 1%

https://berkeleyearth.org/global-temper ... -for-2024/


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The Megadroughts are Upon Us
January 16, 2025

Introduction:
(Eurekalert) Increasingly common since 1980, persistent multi-year droughts will continue to advance with the warming climate, warns a study from the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow, and Landscape Research (WSL), with Professor Francesca Pellicciotti from the Institute of Science and Technology Austria (ISTA) participating. This publicly available forty-year global quantitative inventory, now published in Science, seeks to inform policy regarding the environmental impact of human-induced climate change. It also detected previously ‘overlooked’ events.

Fifteen years of a persistent, devastating megadrought—the longest lasting in a thousand years—have nearly dried out Chile’s water reserves, even affecting the country’s vital mining output. This is but one blatant example of how the warming climate is causing multi-year droughts and acute water crises in vulnerable regions around the globe. However, droughts tend only to be noticed when they damage agriculture or visibly affect forests. Thus, some pressing questions arise: Can we consistently identify extreme multi-year droughts and examine their impacts on ecosystems? And what can we learn from the drought patterns of the past forty years?

To answer these questions, researchers from the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow, and Landscape Research (WSL) and the Institute of Science and Technology Austria (ISTA) have analyzed global meteorological data and modeled droughts between 1980 and 2018. They demonstrated a worrying increase in multi-year droughts that became longer, more frequent, and more extreme, covering more land. “Each year since 1980, drought-stricken areas have spread by an additional fifty thousand square kilometers on average—that’s roughly the area of Slovakia, or the US states of Vermont and New Hampshire put together—, causing enormous damage to ecosystems, agriculture, and energy production,” says ISTA Professor Francesca Pellicciotti, the Principal Investigator of the WSL-funded EMERGE Project, under which the present study was conducted. The team aims to unveil the possible long-lasting effects of persistent droughts around the globe and help inform policy preparing for more frequent and severe future megadroughts.
Read more of the Eurekalert article here: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1070402
Extract:
(Science) Temperate grasslands have exhibited the greatest declines in vegetation greenness during MYDs (multiyear droughts), whereas boreal and tropical forests have had comparably minor responses.
Read more of the editor’s summary and abstract of the Science article here: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ado4245
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Monstrously evil.

-----

Trump readies 'day one climate destruction package' after raking in Big Oil cash

January 17, 2025

The fossil fuel industry pumped tens of millions of dollars into President-elect Donald Trump's successful bid for a second White House term—and it could begin seeing a return on its investment on his very first day in office.

Trump pledged on the campaign trail to be a "dictator" on day one in the service of accelerating U.S. fossil fuel production, which is already at record levels as nations around the world—including the United States—face the devastating consequences of planet-warming emissions.

Soon after his inauguration on Monday, Trump is expected to begin signing executive orders—some of them likely crafted by fossil fuel industry lobbyists—revoking climate-protection rules implemented by his predecessor and paving the way for new liquefied natural gas export permits, among other gifts to the industry.

[...]

"The fossil fuel industry invested $75 million to secure Trump's victory, and now they're expecting a return," said Elizabeth Bast, OCI's executive director. "By appointing fossil fuel CEOs to key Cabinet positions and planning to dismantle critical environmental protections, Trump is handing these companies a blank check to expand their operations at precisely the moment we need to end fossil fuel extraction."

"As Trump returns to office, we're witnessing the deadly price tag of fossil fuel industry control over our democracy," Bast said. "From the still-burning wildfires in Los Angeles to the destruction left by Hurricane Helene in Asheville, to the unprecedented droughts and floods devastating Southern Africa, the climate crisis is accelerating. These deadly disasters are driven by fossil fuel executives who put their profits ahead of our future."

https://www.rawstory.com/trump-readies- ... -oil-cash/
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Climate Misinformation Is Rife on Social Media – and Poised to Get Worse
by Jill Hopke
January 17, 2025

Introduction:
(The Conversation) The decision by Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, to end its fact-checking program and otherwise reduce content moderation raises the question of what content on those social media platforms will look like going forward.

One worrisome possibility is that the change could open the floodgates to more climate misinformation on Meta’s apps, including misleading or out-of-context claims during disasters.

In 2020, Meta rolled out its Climate Science Information Center on Facebook to respond to climate misinformation. Currently, third-party fact-checkers working with Meta flag false and misleading posts. Meta then decides whether to attach a warning label to them and reduce how much the company’s algorithms promote them.

Meta’s policies have fact-checkers prioritizing “viral false information,” hoaxes and “provably false claims that are timely, trending and consequential.” Meta explicitly states that this excludes opinion content that does not include false claims.

The company will end its agreements with U.S.-based third-party fact-checking organizations in March 2025. The planned changes slated to roll out to U.S. users won’t affect fact-checking content viewed by users outside the U.S.. The tech industry faces greater regulations on combating misinformation in other regions, such as the European Union.
Read more here: https://theconversation.com/climate-mi ... e-247156
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Don't mourn, organize.

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After millennia as CO₂ sink, more than one-third of Arctic-boreal region is now a source

January 21, 2025

After millennia as a carbon deep-freezer for the planet, regional hotspots and increasingly frequent wildfires in the northern latitudes have nearly canceled out that critical storage capacity in the permafrost region, according to a study published in Nature Climate Change.

An international team led by Woodwell Climate Research Center found that a third (34%) of the Arctic-boreal zone (ABZ)—the treeless tundra, boreal forests, and wetlands that make up Earth's northern latitudes—is now a source of carbon to the atmosphere. That balance sheet is made up of carbon dioxide (CO2) uptake from plant photosynthesis and CO2 released to the atmosphere through microbial and plant respiration.

When emissions from fire were added, the percentage grew to 40%.

The findings represent the most current and comprehensive assessment of carbon fluxes in the ABZ to date. Drawing on a library of CO₂ data four times as large as earlier upscaling efforts gathered from 200 study sites from 1990–2020, the analysis captures both year-round dynamics and important recent shifts in climate and northern fire regimes that have altered the carbon balance in the north.

"We wanted to develop the most current and comprehensive picture of carbon in the north, and to do that, we knew we needed to account for fire's growing carbon footprint in this region," said Dr. Anna Virkkala, a research scientist at the Permafrost Pathways initiative at Woodwell Climate and lead author of the study.

https://phys.org/news/2025-01-millennia ... ource.html


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Credit: Greg Fiske / Woodwell Climate Research Center
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wjfox when climate deniers

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Bloomberg to fund UN climate agency after US exit from Paris accord

23/01/2025

Billionaire Michael Bloomberg announced Thursday that his foundation will step in to fund the UN climate change body after President Donald Trump declared the United States would withdraw from the Paris Agreement for the second time.

Bloomberg's intervention aims to ensure the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) remains fully funded despite the United States halting its contributions.

The United States typically provides 22 percent of the UNFCCC secretariat's budget, with the body's operating costs for 2024-2025 projected at 88.4 million euros ($96.5 million).

"From 2017 to 2020, during a period of federal inaction, cities, states, businesses, and the public rose to the challenge to uphold our nation's commitments -- and now, we are ready to do it again," Bloomberg, who serves as the UN Special Envoy on Climate Ambition and Solutions, said in a statement.

This marks the second time Bloomberg has stepped in to fill the gap left by US federal disengagement.

https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20 ... -agreement
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Scientists Discover Unique Microbes in Amazonian Peatlands that Could Influence Climate Change
January 24, 2025

Introduction:
(Eurekalert) Complex organisms, thousands of times smaller than a grain of sand, can shape massive ecosystems and influence the fate of Earth's climate, according to a new study.

Researchers from Arizona State University, along with their colleagues from the National University of the Peruvian Amazon, have identified an unknown family of microbes uniquely adapted to the waterlogged, low-oxygen conditions of tropical peatlands in Peru’s northwestern Amazonian rainforest.

The new research shows these microbes have a dual role in the carbon cycle and the potential to either moderate or intensify climate change. This process can either stabilize carbon for long-term storage or release it into the atmosphere as greenhouse gases, particularly CO2 and methane.

Under stable conditions, these microbes enable peatlands to act as vast carbon reservoirs, sequestering carbon and reducing climate risks. However, environmental shifts, including drought and warming, can trigger their activity, accelerating global climate change.

And, continued human-caused disruption of the natural peatland ecosystem could release 500 million tons of carbon by the end of the century — roughly equivalent to 5% of the world’s annual fossil fuel emissions.
Read more of the Eurekalert article here: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1071697

For study results as presented in the American Society of Microbiology Journal: https://journals.asm.org/doi/10.1128/spectrum.00387-24
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Great Barrier Reef Sees Unprecedented Coral Bleaching
Researchers are urging policymakers to take action in light of 'catastrophic' damage to the world's largest coral reef system.
By Adrianna Nine January 24, 2025
https://www.extremetech.com/science/gre ... -bleaching
Scientists in Australia have observed unprecedented coral bleaching across the world's largest reef system. In a new study, they track the rapid rate at which coral colonies in the Southern Great Barrier Reef faced bleaching and then death in 2024. Their alarming findings serve as a "wake-up call" for the scientific community and for policymakers, whom the researchers are urging to protect what remains of the reef.
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Ocean-surface warming has more than quadrupled since the late-1980s, study shows
https://phys.org/news/2025-01-ocean-sur ... 1980s.html
by University of Reading
The rate of ocean warming has more than quadrupled over the past four decades, a new study has shown. Ocean temperatures were rising at about 0.06 degrees Celsius per decade in the late 1980s, but are now increasing at 0.27 degrees Celsius per decade.

Published 28 January 2025 in Environmental Research Letters, the study helps explain why 2023 and early 2024 saw unprecedented ocean temperatures.

Professor Chris Merchant, lead author at the University of Reading, said, "If the oceans were a bathtub of water, then in the 1980s, the hot tap was running slowly, warming up the water by just a fraction of a degree each decade. But now the hot tap is running much faster, and the warming has picked up speed. The way to slow down that warming is to start closing off the hot tap, by cutting global carbon emissions and moving towards net-zero."
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No targets for aviation or farming in UK climate plan

30 January 2025

The UK has restated ambitious plans to reduce its emissions of planet-warming greenhouse gases by 81% by 2035, but has not explained how it will achieve the goal.

In a new action plan submitted to the United Nations, the government also signed up to global goals to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.

However, it has not set targets for sectors like farming, aviation, or energy to address those sectors' contributions to climate change.

The UN called the plans "bold" and told other countries to follow suit.

The announcement from Energy and Net Zero Secretary Ed Miliband comes a day after many environmentalists criticised the government's backing of a third runway at Heathrow Airport.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cyv4g7000m4o
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Arctic sea ice trending towards record low again:

https://www.meereisportal.de/en/


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January 2025 beat the prior record (Jan 2024) by a sizable margin. And unlike the prior record Januaries (2007, 2016, 2020, and 2024) there is currently no El Niño event boosting global temperatures; rather, the world is in modest La Niña conditions that should…result in lower global temperatures.”
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Global Economy Could Face 50% Loss in GDP between 2070 and 2090 from Climate Shocks, Say Actuaries
Sandra Laville
January 16, 2025

Introduction:
(The Guardian) The global economy could face 50% loss in gross domestic product (GDP) between 2070 and 2090 from the catastrophic shocks of climate change unless immediate action by political leaders is taken to decarbonise and restore nature, according to a new report.

The stark warning from risk management experts the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) hugely increases the estimate of risk to global economic wellbeing from climate change impacts such as fires, flooding, droughts, temperature rises and nature breakdown. In a report with scientists at the University of Exeter, published on Thursday, the IFoA, which uses maths and statistics to analyse financial risk for businesses and governments, called for accelerated action by political leaders to tackle the climate crisis.

Their report was published after data from the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) showed climate breakdown drove the annual global temperature above the internationally agreed 1.5C target for the first time in 2024, supercharging extreme weather.

Without urgent action to accelerate decarbonisation, remove carbon from the atmosphere and repair nature, the plausible worst-case hit to global economies would be 50% in the two decades before 2090, the IFoA report said.

At 3C or more of heating by 2050, there could be more than 4 billion deaths, significant sociopolitical fragmentation worldwide, failure of states (with resulting rapid, enduring, and significant loss of capital), and extinction events.

Read more here: https://www.theguardian.com/environmen ... 016%20Jan
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Hottest January on record sounds alarm over pace of climate change

Source: The Independent

Thursday 06 February 2025 05:37 GMT

January 2025 was the warmest January ever recorded globally, continuing a streak of record-breaking temperatures despite expectations that the emergence of La Nina will lead to cooler conditions this year.

The average temperature last month stood at 13.23C, which is 0.79C above the 1991-2020 average for January, according to European space agency Copernicus. January 2025 was 1.75C above the pre-industrial level.

Scientists hoped the emergence of La Nina will slow down the record breaking global warming, but last month broke the record by 0.1C. This makes it the 18th month in the last 19 months for which the global-average surface air temperature was more than 1.5C above the pre-industrial level.

"January 2025 is another surprising month, continuing the record temperatures observed throughout the last two years, despite the development of La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific and their temporary cooling effect on global temperatures,” Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at ECMWF, said. Usually after an El Nino like last year, temperatures fall rapidly, but "we've not seen that," Ms Burgess said.
Read more: https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-c ... 93153.html
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