2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

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caltrek
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Re: 2024 Presidential election

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Liz Cheney: "I haven't made a decision" About 2024 Presidential Run
by Ivana Siric
July 3, 2022

Introduction:
(Axios) Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) acknowledged the possibility of a presidential run in 2024 in an interview with ABC News on Sunday, but said she hasn't "made a decision about that yet."

Why it matters: If she chooses to run, Cheney would join a 2024 Republican field rapidly shaping up, dominated by former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former Vice President Mike Pence.

• This isn't the first time Cheney has left the door open to a possible 2024 presidential run.
What they're saying: "I'll make a decision about ’24 down the road," Cheney said.

• "I think about it less in terms of a decision about running for office, and more in terms of, you know, as an American – and as somebody who's in a position of public trust now, how do I make sure that I'm doing everything I can to do the right thing; to do what I know is right for the country, and, and to protect our Constitution," she added.
Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2022/07/03/liz-c ... ntial-run
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Re: 2024 Presidential election

Post by weatheriscool »

I think everyone should run and I'd like to see a few run against Biden in the democratic primary.
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Re: 2024 Presidential election

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Although a previous article I posted discusses a possible Cheney candidacy, I think there is enough additional information in the article below to warrant citation.

Liz Cheney Hints She Might Run Against Donald Trump in 2024
by Isabela Dias
July 3, 2022

Introduction:
(Mother Jones) As the hearings of the January 6 committee get closer and closer to implicating Donald Trump criminally in the violent attack on the US Capitol, the former president is reportedly considering announcing a 2024 presidential bid earlier than he might have. Sources close to Trump told CBS News he has privately shared his intentions to announce his comeback as early as this summer, instead of waiting until after the November midterms. And if he does indeed throw in his hat in the ring for the Republican nomination, Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) says she might run against him.

British newspaper The Telegraph reported that the former president could formally announce his run in Florida this month, partially in an attempt to overshadow Gov. Ron DeSantis, a likely 2024 rival. Trump recently used his Truth Social account to share a poll showing him leading in a putative GOP primary, even though other polls have suggested DeSantis might do better with voters.

Trump’s urge to jump in early appears to have been further fueled by his anger toward the January 6 committee hearings. “So the lowlifes Rigged and Stole a Presidential Election, and I’m the one who is on trial,” he wrote on Truth Social. “We are truly a Nation in Decline!” Trump has also lashed out against Cassidy Hutchinson, a former senior aide to White House chief of staff Mark Meadows whose damning testimony highlighted Trump’s desire to join the violent mob that besieged the Capitol, and his alleged assault on a Secret Service agent who told Trump he couldn’t join the insurrectionists.

Conclusion:
Cheney said she hasn’t made any decision just yet, but if she does run, it will be about more than her personal political ambitions: “I think about it less in terms of a decision about running for office, and more in terms of, you know, as an American—and as somebody who’s in a position of public trust now, how do I make sure that I’m doing everything I can to do the right thing; to do what I know is right for the country, and, and to protect our Constitution.”
Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... ump-2024/

caltrek’s comment: In a head-to-head between Trump and Cheney, I think Cheney would get demolished. A three-way race involving DeSantis would be less predictable, as it seems to me that DeSantis would hurt mostly Trump. Of course, my ability to understand the Republican mentality is admittedly rather limited. It is simply too difficult to fathom how such irrational minds will work.

A Cheney candidacy would probably hurt Trump’s chances to win in the general election. At least independents and relatively moderate Republicans might be persuaded by Cheney that Trump is a bridge too far. They could then either stay home in the general election, vote for a third party (such as the Libertarians), or even vote for the Democratic nominee.
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Re: 2024 Presidential election

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PollTracker
@PollTrackerUSA
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2024 National General Election Poll:

Joe Biden 44% (+3)
Donald Trump 41%

@SienaResearch
/@nytimes
~ 849 RV ~ 7/5-7/7
https://int.nyt.com/data/documentt
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Re: 2024 Presidential election

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64% of Democratic Voters Don't Want Biden to Be the Party's 2024 Nominee: Poll
by Jake Johnson
July 11, 2022

Introduction:
(Common Dreams) A New York Times/Siena College poll released Monday indicates that President Joe Biden's support among his own party's base is eroding, with 64% of Democratic voters saying they would prefer a different candidate in 2024.

Asked whether they "think the Democratic Party should renominate Joe Biden as the party's candidate for president in 2024" or pick a different candidate, nearly two-thirds of Democratic respondents opted for the latter while just 26% said the incumbent should be renominated.

A striking 94% of Democratic voters between the ages of 18 and 29—a group that has demanded bold climate action and student debt relief—said they want a different nominee, according to the new poll.

In a follow-up question, respondents were asked to select the most important reason they would prefer a different, unspecified nominee over Biden. A third of respondents answered that the president's job performance is the primary factor, another 33% cited Biden's age, and 10% said their preference stems from Biden not being "progressive enough."

The survey was conducted between July 5 and July 7 and included 849 registered voters. The poll's margin of error is 4.1 percentage points.
Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/news/202 ... nee-poll
and here: https://www.alternet.org/2022/07/joe-bi ... me-change/

caltrek’s comment: You can count me in as belonging in that 64%. Of course, I am also in that portion of the electorate that would vote for Biden over Donald Trump (or DeSantis if asked).
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Re: 2024 Presidential election

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Voters See a Bad Economy, Even if They're Doing OK
Source: New York Times

The fastest inflation in four decades has Americans feeling dour about the economy, even as their own finances have, so far, held up relatively well.

Just 10 percent of registered voters say the U.S. economy is “good” or “excellent,” according to a New York Times/Siena College poll — a remarkable degree of pessimism at a time when wages are rising and the unemployment rate is near a 50-year low. But the rapidly rising cost of food, gas and other essentials is wiping out pay increases and eroding living standards.

Americans’ grim outlook is bad news for President Biden and congressional Democrats heading into this fall’s midterm elections, given that 78 percent of voters say inflation will be “extremely important” when they head to the polls.

It could be bad news for the economy as well. One long-running index of consumer sentiment hit a record low in June, and other surveys likewise show Americans becoming increasingly nervous about both their own finances and the broader economy.
Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/15/busi ... lling.html
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Re: 2024 Presidential election

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New Election Projection Shows DeSantis Beating Trump for 2024 GOP Presidential Nomination
by Meaghan Ellis
July 13, 2022

Introduction:
(Alternet) Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) could beat former President Donald Trump and become the Republican Party's presidential nominee in 2024, according to the results of a new poll.

Per Newsweek, the latest survey, which was conducted by Blueprint Polling, suggests 50.9 percent of the Republican voters who participated in the poll would support the Republican governor while only 38.6 percent would back Trump. Blueprint Polling compiled its survey based on responses from 656 voters who offered their opinions between July 7-10. The poll's margin of error is projected to be approximately +/- 3.82 percent.

The news outlet also offered a breakdown of voters who are standing firm on their decision. Among those voters, "DeSantis' lead extends to nearly 14 points (47.6 percent to 33.2 percent) in a scenario in which the pair ended up as the final two choices in the GOP primary."

The poll summary also noted, "Older Republicans are more likely to support Trump, but DeSantis still leads the former president in all age groupings."
Read more here: https://www.alternet.org/2022/07/new-e ... voters/
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Re: 2024 Presidential election

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caltrek wrote: Mon Jul 18, 2022 4:14 pm New Election Projection Shows DeSantis Beating Trump for 2024 GOP Presidential Nomination
by Meaghan Ellis
July 13, 2022

Introduction:
(Alternet) Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) could beat former President Donald Trump and become the Republican Party's presidential nominee in 2024, according to the results of a new poll.

Per Newsweek, the latest survey, which was conducted by Blueprint Polling, suggests 50.9 percent of the Republican voters who participated in the poll would support the Republican governor while only 38.6 percent would back Trump. Blueprint Polling compiled its survey based on responses from 656 voters who offered their opinions between July 7-10. The poll's margin of error is projected to be approximately +/- 3.82 percent.

The news outlet also offered a breakdown of voters who are standing firm on their decision. Among those voters, "DeSantis' lead extends to nearly 14 points (47.6 percent to 33.2 percent) in a scenario in which the pair ended up as the final two choices in the GOP primary."

The poll summary also noted, "Older Republicans are more likely to support Trump, but DeSantis still leads the former president in all age groupings."
Read more here: https://www.alternet.org/2022/07/new-e ... voters/
PollTracker
@PollTrackerUSA
·
Jul 17
2024 Florida Republican Primary Poll:

Ron DeSantis 51% (+18)
Donald Trump 33%

@VictoryPolling
~ 600 LV ~ 7/13-7/14
https://victory-insights.com/files/PollRepo

PollTracker
@PollTrackerUSA
·
17h
2024 Florida Republican Primary Poll, With leaners:

Ron DeSantis 61% (+22)
Donald Trump 39%

@VictoryPolling
~ 600 LV ~ 7/13-7/14

I hope it is Desantist. ;)
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caltrek
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Re: 2024 Presidential election

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I hope it is Desantist. ;)
They are both fascists (or at least proto fascists) so I really don't have much of what I would call a preference between the two. I suppose I fear DeSantis more as being less known by voters. They might tend to give him an (undeserved) benefit of a doubt in the general election.
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Re: 2024 Presidential election

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Biden approval on economy hits new low: poll
President Biden’s economic approval ratings have hit a record low for his presidency — and surpassed the lowest ratings of the previous two presidents, new polling shows.

A CNBC All-America Economic survey put Biden’s economic approval rating at 30 percent, 5 points below a previous survey in April.

That number is also 11 points below the low for former President Trump and 7 points below the lowest for former President Obama. The survey has been distributed for 15 years, but the latest results include “the worst economic outlook measures CNBC has recorded,” the report concludes.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administra ... -low-poll/
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Re: 2024 Presidential election

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The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, July 16-19, 1500 adults including

Adults:

Approve 38 (+1)
Disapprove 55 (-1)

Strongly approve 14 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-1)

RV:

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 15 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-1)

GCB (RV only): D 43 (nc), R 40 (nc)
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Re: 2024 Presidential election

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InteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022
·
Follow
NEW: @QuinnipiacPoll

Biden Job Approval
Approve 31%
Disapprove 60%

Independents
Approve 23%
Disapprove 67%

Hispanics
Approve 19%
Disapprove 70%

N=1,523 A / 07/14-18

It's fucking over for Joe Biden.
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Re: 2024 Presidential election

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President Biden Job Approval Quinnipiac Approve 33, Disapprove 59 Disapprove +26
President Biden Job Approval NPR/PBS/Marist Approve 36, Disapprove 58 Disapprove +22
President Biden Job Approval Reuters/Ipsos Approve 36, Disapprove 59 Disapprove +23
President Biden Job Approval Politico/Morning Consult Approve 38, Disapprove 58 Disapprove +20
President Biden Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 39, Disapprove 60 Disapprove +21
President Biden Job Approval Economist/YouGov Approve 40, Disapprove 54 Disapprove +14
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Re: 2024 Presidential election

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Biden's Presidency Isn't Sinking Because of the Left—It's Because of Right-Wing Democrats
by Miles Kampf-Lassin
July 23, 2022

Extract:
(Common Dreams) (R)ather than deal with the uncomfortable truth that so-called “moderates” are the ones imperiling both Biden’s presidency and Democrats’ electoral fortunes, establishment-friendly commentators are yet again lazily training their sights on their favorite scapegoats — the Left.

BBB (Build Back Better) is popular across the political spectrum. Polling has shown that a clear majority of Americans back the legislation itself, as well as the constituent elements of the bill: universal pre K, free community college, long-term care investments, modernizing the electricity grid, lowering the Medicare age, capping the costs of prescription drugs and creating a Civilian Climate Corps all command over 50 percent support.

In short, both the U.S. public and progressives in Congress want Biden’s agenda to become law. But instead, BBB is “dead,” according to Sen. Joe Manchin (D W.V.) — one of the right-wing Democrats responsible for killing the bill.

To respond to inflation, progressives have pushed for policies that would punish corporations that are jacking up prices on consumers while raking in record profits. One proposal would impose a windfall tax on the profits of Big Oil companies, which are rewarding wealthy shareholders with stock buyback programs. Others are proposing measures to crack down on corporate price gouging and dominance of supply chains, including by the meat industry, where just four beef companies control 85 percent of the market. Polls suggest that this response to inflation would be favored by the public. The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, with Biden’s blessing, is taking the opposite route, raising interest rates — which will likely lead to higher unemployment and decreased worker bargaining power, i.e. more neoliberal austerity.

If the chattering classes were serious about assessing the reason for Biden and the Democrats’ shrinking poll numbers, they would place blame on the real culprit — an unwillingness among the party establishment to take bold action to address the issues facing the country, from a broken healthcare system to economic plunder of working people by the super-rich to bought-and-paid-for politicians acting on behalf of their corporate funders.
Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/views/20 ... mocrats
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Re: 2024 Presidential election

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2024 Pennsylvania General Election Poll:

Biden 42% (+1)
Trump 41%

@blueprintpoll
~ 712 LV ~ 7/19-7/21
https://blueprintpolling.com/2022/07/26/dem
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Re: 2024 Presidential election

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Re: 2024 Presidential election

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Democratic Rep. Carolyn Maloney says she doesn't think Biden will run for reelection
Source: CNN

Washington (CNN)Democratic Rep. Carolyn Maloney of New York said Tuesday evening she doesn't believe President Joe Biden will run for reelection in 2024, the latest Democrat to publicly cast doubt on a second Biden term.

"I don't believe he's running for reelection," Maloney said when asked if the President should run again during a congressional primary debate in New York's 12th district.

Responding to the same question, Rep. Jerry Nadler, who is running against Maloney following redistricting, said it's "too early to say" and that it "doesn't serve the purpose of the Democratic Party" to deal with the question until after midterms. Maloney's other opponent, Suraj Patel, simply answered, "Yes."

Democrats have privately shared concerns about Biden, who is 79 and struggling with poor approval ratings, running for a second term in the 2024 election. The President and his aides have pushed back on any idea that he won't run for a second term, and most Democrats have publicly said they will support Biden if he runs for a second term.
Read more: https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/03/poli ... index.html
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Re: 2024 Presidential election

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Biden approval rises to 40%, highest in two months, Reuters/Ipsos shows
Source: Reuters
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden's public approval rose this week to its highest level since early June following a string of legislative victories, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll completed on Tuesday.

The two-day national poll found that 40% of Americans approve of Biden's job performance, a level of support that is historically low for a U.S. president.

But the recent upward turn in Biden's approval rating - including gains in each of the last three weeks - could temper the concern among his Democrats that the party is poised to take a drubbing in the Nov. 8 midterm elections, when Republicans hope to seize control of the U.S. Congress.

-snip-

Tuesday's poll showed 78% of respondents who identified as Democrats approved of Biden, up from 69% a month earlier. Only 12% of Republicans approved of Biden this week, a figure that has remained largely steady in recent weeks.
Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... r-AA10uAF1
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Re: 2024 Presidential election

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2024 Colorado General Election Poll:

Biden 50% (+7)
Trump 43%

McLaughlin & Associates, 500 LV, 7/24-26
https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-conten
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Re: 2024 Presidential election

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Politico/Morning Consult this week, from last week

42% approve (+3)
56% disapprove (-3)

https://morningconsult.com/2022/08/17/r ... -midterms/
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