Economic and jobs news thread

[weatheriscool]

[firestar464]

More on this by CNBC:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/29/stock-m ... dates.html

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

[Tadasuke]

> I spoke to Tupy on the phone about his project, how to market good news, and why he thinks we should stop comparing the present to the "future perfect."

> You have quite a globetrotting background. How does that inform your work?

> Well, I grew up in a communist country, the Czechoslovak Socialist Republic, and there I saw real poverty. The shops were empty, there were queues everywhere, people couldn’t really buy anything, their currency was worthless, and there was no freedom of speech, religion, assembly - anything. The first time I went to the West was in 1989 when the Wall came down, and I went to Vienna, and saw that just across the border from Czechoslovakia was a very prosperous country. So that got me thinking, as a kid,what makes some countries rich and some countries poor?

> Then I moved to South Africa when I was 16, with my parents, who are doctors, and there I saw even worse poverty. And from there I moved to Scotland for my PhD at St. Andrew's, and finally the United States, to work at CATO. So I’ve lived in countries which have varied tremendously in terms of economic outcomes, and I wanted to know more. So my dissertation was about globalization and trade and inequality. And when I looked into the data, I realized that actually even though there are vast differences between countries in the world, the world as a whole is becoming more prosperous, and things are improving everywhere, and the differences between people are actually diminishing.

> And if you were reading this article, and I blogged about it, you would think well my goodness, how did this prosperity come about. How did this drop in poverty come about? Did it just materialize out of thin air like manna from heaven? What happened to humanity since 1980, and what is the mechanism by which some countries escape from poverty and some don’t? And the answer is economic growth. That allows us to basically pay for all the things that we like; not just cell phones, but also education and health care and so on.

> And then, how do you get to economic growth? The answer is very simple, you do it through free trade. You do it through privatization of private property. You do it through having peace in your country. You don’t have a murderous dictator in charge. Just look at South Korea and North Korea. I personally don't need much more than to look at these two countries to know what works and what doesn’t.

the source HuffPost article

HumanProgress website

South America in 2023 has on average 5x higher GDP per capita with purchasing power parity than it had in 1980. Venezuela is the only country the didn't improve in GDP PC PPP since 1980. It can't be all random or coincidental, it all must have some causes and effects, which can be researched and proper conclusions drawn.

[weatheriscool]

Private payrolls increased by 103,000 in November, below expectations, ADP says

KEY POINTS
* Private payrolls grew by 103,000 workers in November, below the downwardly revised 106,000 in October and the 128,000 Dow Jones estimate.
* After leading job creation for most of the period since Covid hit in early 2020, leisure and hospitality recorded a loss of 7,000 jobs.
* Services-related industries provided all the job gains for the month, as goods producers saw a net loss of 14,000.

Private sector job creation slowed further in November and wages showed their smallest growth in more than two years, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday. ... Companies added just 103,000 workers for the month, slightly below the downwardly revised 106,000 in October and missing the 128,000 Dow Jones estimate. ... Along with the modest job growth came a 5.6% increase in annual pay, which ADP said was the smallest gain since September 2021. Job-changers saw wage increases of 8.3%, making the premium for switching positions the lowest since ADP began tracking the data three years ago.

After leading job creation for most of the period since Covid hit in early 2020, leisure and hospitality recorded a loss of 7,000 jobs for the month. Trade, transportation and utilities saw an increase of 55,000 positions, while education and health services added 44,000 and other services contributed 15,000.

Services-related industries provided all the job gains for the month, as goods-producers saw a net loss of 14,000 due to declines of 15,000 in manufacturing, despite the settlement in the United Auto Workers strikes, and 4,000 in construction. Recent layoffs in Silicon Valley and on Wall Street also did not show up in the data, as both sectors posted gains on the month.

{snip}

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/06/private ... -says.html

[weatheriscool]

Biden economy adds 199,000 jobs in November, Unemployment falls to 3.7%
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm

Wage growth remains strong at 4.0% year over year, which for several months in a row now has exceeded the rate of inflation.

185,000 jobs and 3.9% UE were the expectations.

[weatheriscool]

U.S. payrolls rose 199,000 in November, unemployment rate falls to 3.7%

Source: CNBC

Published Fri, Dec 8 2023 8:31 AM EST Updated 4 Min Ago

Job creation showed little signs of a let-up in November, as payrolls grew even faster than expected and the unemployment rate fell despite signs of a weakening economy.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 199,000 for the month, slightly better than the 190,000 Dow Jones estimate and ahead of the October gain of 150,000, the Labor Department reported Friday. The unemployment rate declined to 3.7%, compared to the forecast for 3.9%.

Average hourly earnings, a key inflation indicator, increased by 0.4% for the month and 4% from a year ago. The monthly increase was slightly ahead of the 0.3% estimate, but the yearly rate was in line.

Markets showed mixed reaction to the report, with stock market futures modestly negative while Treasury yields surged.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/08/jobs-re ... rcent.html

[caltrek]

> And then, how do you get to economic growth? The answer is very simple, you do it through free trade. You do it through privatization of private property. You do it through having peace in your country. You don’t have a murderous dictator in charge. Just look at South Korea and North Korea. I personally don't need much more than to look at these two countries to know what works and what doesn’t.

the source HuffPost article

HumanProgress website

South America in 2023 has on average 5x higher GDP per capita with purchasing power parity than it had in 1980. Venezuela is the only country the didn't improve in GDP PC PPP since 1980. It can't be all random or coincidental, it all must have some causes and effects, which can be researched and proper conclusions drawn.

Fair enough. First step should be a clear understanding or terms and concepts. For example, what in the hell does "privatization of private property" mean. Is that just a variation of "rendering on to Caeser what is due Caeser"? Whatever the hell that means.

Also, "purchasing power parity." Here is a source explaining that concept:

https://ourworldindata.org/what-are-ppps

Below is what that source offers as a potential explanation of differences. An explanation that I hold off in endorsing for Venezuela.

Empirically, we observe that prices are higher in richer countries: there is a positive cross-country relationship between average incomes and average prices.
...
One possible explanation, which has received substantial attention in the academic literature, rests on cross-country productivity differences; specifically, the fact that labour tends to be more productive in rich countries because of the adoption of more advanced technologies.

This is the essence of the ‘Balassa-Samuelson model’. The greater the productivity differentials in the production of tradable goods between countries, the larger the differences in wages and prices of services; and correspondingly, the greater the gap between purchasing power parity and the equilibrium exchange rate.

This is where the "equilibrium exchange rate: is explained as follows:

There are good reasons why the market exchange rate between two currencies should reflect the relative price levels between the two economies. Imagine that one apple costs $1 in the US and £1 in the UK. Suppose the market exchange rate is not 1:1, but for example $1.5 = £1. Given this situation, an American person with an apple would have an incentive to sell the apple in the UK, and then convert pounds into dollars, making a profit. This is what is called arbitrage. People would jump at such opportunities, and before long, market forces would exhaust gains from trade, leading to an equilibrium where currency prices and apple prices adjust and there are no opportunities to engage in this ‘free-money game’

[caltrek]

In the particular case of Venezuela:

(Center for Economic and Policy Research) This paper looks at some of the most important impacts
of the economic sanctions imposed on Venezuela by the US government since August of 2017. It finds that
most of the impact of these sanctions has not been on the government but on the civilian population.

The sanctions reduced the public’s caloric intake, increased disease and mortality (for both adults and
infants), and displaced millions of Venezuelans who fled the country as a result of the worsening
economic depression and hyperinflation. They exacerbated Venezuela’s economic crisis and made it
nearly impossible to stabilize the economy, contributing further to excess deaths. All of these impacts
disproportionately harmed the poorest and most vulnerable Venezuelans.

Even more severe and destructive than the broad economic sanctions of August 2017 were the
sanctions imposed by executive order on January 28, 2019 and subsequent executive orders this year;
and the recognition of a parallel government, which as shown below (see link), created a whole new set of
financial and trade sanctions that are even more constricting than the executive orders themselves.

We find that the sanctions have inflicted, and increasingly inflict, very serious harm to human life and
health, including an estimated more than 40,000 deaths from 2017–2018; and that these sanctions
would fit the definition of collective punishment of the civilian population as described in both the
Geneva and Hague international conventions, to which the US is a signatory. They are also illegal
under international law and treaties which the US has signed, and would appear to violate US law as
well

Source: https://cepr.net/images/stories/reports ... 019-04.pdf