2022 midterm election thread

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caltrek
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Why Cheri Beasley of North Carolina Might be Democrats’ Most Underrated Senate Candidate
by Nicole Narea
October 18, 2022

Introduction:
(Vox) DURHAM, North Carolina — Before locals packed inside Beyú Caffè in downtown Durham on a Tuesday evening in October, Rheba Heggs arrived early to save her seat. A retired attorney, she had come to see Democrat Cheri Beasley, who could become the first Black person to represent North Carolina in the US Senate.

A Black woman herself, Heggs visited North Carolina as a girl, decades before she relocated to the state to be closer to her grandchildren, and well before desegregation was complete. In the front row at Beyú Caffè, she was giddy with caffeine, and hopeful about witnessing history.

“I listened to ... [Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown] Jackson the last few days. That is something I never expected to see in my lifetime. ... This is the result of all the women who have come before, not just Black women, pushing,” Heggs said. “If [Cheri Beasley] wins — when she wins, it means so much. But it also means that the Senate becomes a working institution.”

North Carolina hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate in more than a decade, and most thought this year, with its tough climate for Democrats, would go the same way. But the race to replace retiring Sen. Richard Burr is actually competitive, with FiveThirtyEight’s tracking poll showing Republican Rep. Ted Budd with a less than 2 percentage point lead over Beasley, former chief justice of the state supreme court. Both are now attracting big spending from their parties and outside groups, with the Democrat-aligned Senate Majority PAC announcing an additional $4 million investment Thursday.
Read more here: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politic ... -midterms
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Election Workers in Battleground States More Likely to Receive Threats
by Thomas Wheatly
October 18, 2022

Introduction:
(Axios) The FBI says battleground states that are likely to see calls for election audits and recounts — like Georgia — are more likely to see threats and harassment directed at election workers during the midterms.

What's happening: As early voting begins and Election Day draws near, counties are on guard to avoid a repeat of the 2020 election.

Catch up quick: After voting officials from the county level on up to Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger reported threats and harassment from conspiracy theorists and election deniers who alleged the election was stolen.

• Former Fulton elections employee Shaye Moss testified to the Jan. 6 oversight committee that she endured violent threats and went into hiding after she was falsely accused of conspiring to commit election fraud.

Details: As of June 2022, 11% of the more than 1,000 contact reports to the U.S. Department of Justice's task force monitoring threats to election workers met "federal criteria for further investigative action."
Read more here: https://www.axios.com/local/atlanta/20 ... s-georgia

caltrek’s comment: The Republican response to all of this: why defund the FBI of course. Incredibly, they are rated as being tougher on crime than the Democrats.
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JD Vance and Tim Ryan Spar Over Racism in Heated Senate Debate
by Rebecca Falconer
October 17, 2022

Introduction:
(Axios) J.D. Vance and Rep. Tim Ryan clashed over racism during the Ohio Senate candidates' final debate on Monday evening.

Driving the news: Vance accused Ryan of "slander" and said he's "disgusting" after the Democrat claimed his Republican rival defended far-right conspiracy theorist Alex Jones and suggested he backed "white replacement theory," a conspiracy theory that has strains of anti-Semitism, racism and anti-immigrant sentiment.

What they're saying: "Here's exactly what happens when the media and people like Tim Ryan accuse me of engaging in great replacement theory,” said Vance, whose wife is Indian American.

• "What happens is my own children — my biracial children — get attacked by scumbags online and in person, because you are so desperate for political power that you’ll accuse me, the father of three beautiful biracial babies, of engaging in racism. We are sick of it," he added.

• "You can believe in the border without being a racist."
Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2022/10/18/jd-va ... te-racism
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Georgia breaks first-day early voting record, nearly doubles figure from last midterms
Source: CNBC

Turnout from Georgia's first day of early voting set a new state record for a midterm election, nearly doubling the figure from the same time period in the previous midterms, state election officials said Tuesday.

More than 131,000 Georgia voters cast ballots since early voting began Monday, according to the office of Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. The figure represents an 85% boost over the 2018 midterms, when nearly 71,000 early votes were cast on Day One, the office said.

Georgia's latest tally is also nearly as large as the state's first day of early voting in the 2020 presidential election — 136,739 in that contest versus 131,318 in the current cycle, Raffensperger's office said. Turnout tends to be much higher when the presidency is on the ballot.

Absentee ballots cast Monday totaled 11,759, bringing Georgia's total turnout so far to 143,077, the office said.
Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/ge ... 165aa2f4d1
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SEN KELLY 47
Masters 46
Victor 3%
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New Poll: Pennsylvania Senator by Fabrizio Ward on 2022-10-12
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/1 ... e-00062330
Summary: D: 48%, R: 46%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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GOP Candidates Are Spending Hundreds of Millions of Dollars More Than Democrats
by Russ Choma
October 19, 2022

Introduction:
(Mother Jones) A record $16.3 billion will be spent on 2022 state and federal elections, according to research published Wednesday. The eye-popping figure comes from a new report released by OpenSecrets, a non-partisan group that tracks campaign finance. OpenSecrets estimates at least $9.3 billion will be spent on federal races—a runaway record for a mid-term election year—and at least $7 billion will go toward state-level elections, which would also be a record. Those figures do not include money spent by outside groups, which are harder to track, but which OpenSecrets recently determined had already spent $1.3 billion this cycle—yet another record for the mid-terms, despite the fact that Election Day is still weeks away.

On the federal level, OpenSecrets is projecting that GOP candidates will end up spending about $4.7 billion, while Democratic candidates will spend around $3.5 billion—a reversal from 2018, when Democratic candidates outspent the Republicans.

The new analysis shows that, on the state level, Republican and Democratic party committees are remarkably even in their fundraising efforts, with both sides likely to raise about $400 million. But, like at the federal level, individual GOP state candidates appear to have a decided edge in fundraising, outpacing Democratic candidates by about 17 percent for this election—a marked change from 2018, when candidates from both sides raised in the neighborhood of $1.9 billion.

“As with federal races, money flowing into state elections has skyrocketed in recent years—and 2022 ups the ante again. With so many governors up for election this year, gubernatorial races could have enormous consequences in states across the country,” said OpenSecrets executive director Sheila Krumholz.

One major caveat is that the money is not distributed evenly across the board, either on the federal level or the state level. While GOP candidates might have the overall edge, in particular races Democrats may hold enormous advantages, or vice-versa. And of course, not all races will be competitive—a situation in which a huge monetary advantage for one side or the other doesn’t really mean a lot.
Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... emocrats/
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News Release*
Nearly 40% of Voters Would Consider Crossing Party Lines for Candidate With Plan to Lower Healthcare Costs

Introduction:
(EurekAlert) WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Oct. 20, 2022 -- Nearly nine in 10 Americans say a candidate's plan for reducing healthcare costs will be an important consideration in determining their vote, and almost 40% of them, or an estimated 100 million Americans, say it could even make them cross party lines in the upcoming midterm elections, according to a new poll from West Health and Gallup.

In the nationally representative survey of more than 5,500 Americans, independents (50%) and Democrats (40%) were roughly twice more likely than Republicans (22%) to say they would vote for a candidate from a party other than their own if lowering healthcare costs was that candidate’s top priority. Across racial lines, significantly more Black Americans (65%) and Hispanic Americans (60%) than White Americans (34%) say they are willing to do the same.

But even if it’s not enough to sway their vote, 77% of Republicans, 85% of independents and 96% of Democrats say healthcare will be an important consideration in the next election, with Black (65%) and Hispanic Americans (60%) much more likely than White Americans (41%) to say so.

“Our survey shows healthcare affordability remains on the ballot and that it could have a big influence on November’s midterm elections,” said Timothy A. Lash, President, West Health. “Clearly, candidates with a plan for lowering overall healthcare and prescription drug costs and who have an understanding for how important the issue is to voters could be rewarded.”

The vast majority of Americans (86%) also report that a candidate's plan to specifically reduce the cost of prescription drugs is very or somewhat important in determining their vote, but Black and Hispanic Americans and older adults place the most importance on the matter. Nearly two-thirds (65%) of Black Americans and 56% of Hispanic Americans say the issue is “very important” to their vote, compared to 40% of White Americans.

In the same survey, three-quarters of Americans (74%) or 190 million adults give a poor or failing grade to the U.S. healthcare system when it comes to affordability. Nearly one in five say they or a family member had a health problem worsen after being unable to pay for needed care and another estimated 70 million people (27%) report that if they needed quality healthcare today, they would not be able to afford it. Half the country, about 129 million people, express a lack confidence that they will be able to afford healthcare as they age.

“The survey data suggests that combating high healthcare and prescription drug costs is particularly motivating to voting blocs that can tip elections,” said Dan Witters, Research Director for the Gallup National Health and Well-Being Index.
Read more here: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/968379

*Therefore should not be subjected to restrictions on length due to copyright concerns.
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Mehmet Oz said he wouldn't take corporate PAC money. Then he did.
Source: Philadelphia Inquirer
When Mehmet Oz starting running for Senate in Pennsylvania, he made a promise: He wouldn’t accept “one dime” from corporate political committees.

“For too long, Washington’s been run by special interests and corporate donors,” Oz said in a video posted on Twitter in January. “I’m making this pledge: I will not take one dime of corporate PAC money, not one dollar. I cannot be bought.”

Except he did.

Oz’s latest fund-raising report shows at least eight donations from political committees registered as corporate PACs with the Federal Elections Commission.
Read more: https://www.inquirer.com/politics/elect ... 21020.html
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Minnesota update:
Applications submitted (10/20/22): 467,902
Accepted ballots (10/20/22): 172,520

37.22% from Hennepin and Ramsey counties.
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TargetSmart has a handy visualization of ballot returns.

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022

Compared to this same point out in 2020, Democrats are actually doing 3.6% better in terms of returned ballots
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Total Early Votes: 4,906,606 (+1,255k)
Mail Ballots Requested: 17,109,643 39,309,649(+22,220k)
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California update

Democrats - 426,967 (49%)
Republicans - 243,513 (28%)
Ind/other - 202,432 (23%)

= 872,912
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FL now at over 1m mail ballots submitted.

Dems at 38k lead (was at 34k yesterday), 42% dems 38,3 reps

Not great for Dems
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