2025-2026 election thread for Senate, House, State and cities

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Democrats' Chances of Flipping Congress from Republican Control Next Year
By Andrew Stanton
August 7, 2025

Introduction:

(Newsweek) Democrats are building an early lead in congressional polling ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, but it's yet to be seen whether the party's momentum can be enough amid the threat of mid-decade redistricting.

Viet Shelton, spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told Newsweek that Democrats are confident they will "re-take the majority powered by an aggressive message focused on fighting for lowering prices and holding Republicans and Trump accountable for their record of broken promises."

Why It Matters

The midterms are still more than a year away, so early polls are far from definitive. Still, they are an important gauge of voter sentiment about both Democrats and Republicans as candidates begin ramping up their campaigns.

Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms, and recent polls show President Donald Trump's approval has fallen since the start of his administration, fueling Democratic optimism about a 2018-esque blue wave. But several GOP-led states may redraw their congressional boundaries to become more favorable to Republicans in an attempt to thwart Democratic gains.

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politic ... &ei=107

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Grim Trend Hits Senate as Members Flee for Governors' Mansions
By Stef W. Kight
August 6, 2025

Introduction:

(Axios) Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) is the third senator to officially run for governor this cycle, while at least four governors have turned down recruitment efforts to run for Senate.

• Blackburn joins Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) and Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) in bucking D.C. for gubernatorial roles.

Why it matters: Governors used to jump at the chance to be a senator. But Govs. Brian Kemp (R-Ga.), Gretchen Whitmer (D-Mich.), Andy Beshear (D-Ky.) and Chris Sununu (R-N.H.) have all passed on open races next year.

• In North Carolina, former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper's bid for Senate is a notable exception, although he was term-limited out of the statehouse in 2024.

• In Maine, Democratic Gov. Janet Mills has yet to decide on challenging Republican incumbent Susan Collins.

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politic ... 7&ei=127

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California 2026 Poll: Porter, Hilton Lead in Race for Governor; Plurality Undecided
August 8, 2025

Introduction:

(Emerson College Polling) A new Emerson College Polling survey of California voters finds former Democratic Representative Katie Porter leading the primary for California governor with 18%, followed by Republican political commentator Steve Hilton at 12%, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 7%, and former Democratic Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa at 5%. A plurality of voters (38%) are undecided.

“With Kamala Harris officially out of the race, Katie Porter has emerged as the Democratic frontrunner, increasing her support from 12% to 18% since the April Emerson poll,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Steve Hilton, who was not in the race in April, has jumped to 12%, while the share of undecided voters has dropped from 54% to 38% over the summer. Porter leads among voters over 50 (22%), those with a postgraduate degree (35%), and white voters (23%).”

Read more here: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/cali ... 6-poll/

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Former South Carolina Lt. Gov. Bauer Drops Out of Senate Race, Says He Won't Win With 'Lies, Division'
By Bella Carpentier
August 8, 2025

Introduction:

(Greenville News ) The former lieutenant governor of South Carolina suspended his campaign for U.S. Senate in a social media announcement on August 8.

André Bauer officially entered the race to unseat incumbent Sen. Lindsey Graham on July 2. He was one of three Republicans competing against Graham in the primary contest. The other two candidates are Project 2025 architect Paul Dans and Upstate businessman Mark Lynch.

In a social media post announcing his resignation from the race, Bauer said he "cannot and will not" be part of a political atmosphere that rewards deception over honesty. He was in the race for a little more than a month.

Read more here: https://www.greenvilleonline.com/story ... 743007/

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Meet the Democrat Republicans Fear in Red-State America
By John McCormick
August 18, 2025

Introduction:

(Wall Street Journal via MSN) DES MOINES, Iowa—Rob Sand could almost pass for a Republican: He frequently quotes the Bible, owns two SIG Sauer handguns, goes deer hunting each fall and asks audiences to sing a few verses of “America the Beautiful” at the start of campaign events.
The only Democrat elected to statewide office in Iowa, Sand is trying to jump to the governor’s mansion from his current state auditor post. In the process, he is offering a potential template for others in his party on how to compete in red-state America.

Iowa Christian conservative leader Bob Vander Plaats recently warned Republicans that Sand is a “very real opponent” to be taken seriously.

“Churchgoer, gun-toter, state auditor, taxpayers’ watchdog. Sounds a little bit like us, right?” Vander Plaats said, adding that Sand will have plenty of money behind him, in part, because of his wealthy wife and in-laws.

Sand’s 2026 campaign is a long-shot in a state President Trump won by 13 percentage points in 2024. Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds, who has held the office since 2017, isn’t seeking re-election and that means for the first time since 2006 there will be no incumbent.

Voters are tired of partisan division, Sand said during an interview at the Iowa State Fair. “In a two-choice system, if you can convince people that the other side is out to destroy your way of life, or evil, then you don’t have to do the hard work of listening to people and crafting solutions and solving problems,” he said. “You can get re-elected anyway.”

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politic ... ff2&ei=64

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What matters is addressing important issues like the economy.

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'The Oligarchy Is the Enemy': Maine Oyster Farmer Launches Senate Bid to Oust Susan Collins
By Julia Conley
August 19, 2025

Introduction:

(Common Dreams) Launching a US Senate run to unseat five-term Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins, oyster farmer Graham Platner on Tuesday made clear in his inaugural ad that beating the "fake" moderate also means taking on the power-hungry billionaire class that has helped keep her in power all these years.

Read more of the Common Dreams article here: https://www.commondreams.org/news/susa ... eelection

From Platner’s web site:

Maine is becoming unaffordable for thousands and thousands of us. Why? Because we have a government by, of, and for billionaires, who are building a "billionaire economy" that none of us can afford…

Overview

America has entered a new Gilded Age. We have a government of, by, and for billionaires: a direct consequence of disastrous court decisions, capped by Citizens United, that have allowed billionaires to buy elections.

As a result, they have built a “billionaire economy”. One that creates explosive growth for a tiny, privileged few, for a handful of billionaires and multi-national corporations; and inflation, stagnation, and decline for the rest of us.

In 1990 there were 66 billionaires in America. Today there are over 900. When you look around, do you see a community that is over 10 times wealthier than in 1990?

And so, while my platform spans many issues, I view most of my job as a US Senator as to do two things: one, to ban billionaires buying elections; two, to dismantle the “billionaire economy”, in favor of an economy that works for the American worker, for small business, for the vast majority of Americans. I will be a Senator for all those who can’t buy Senators.

To view Platner’s web site: https://www.grahamforsenate.com/platform

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More on that by the Iowa Capital Dispatch:

https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2025/08 ... rmajority/

if this trend holds, Rob Sand is going to win easily

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More on that by the Iowa Capital Dispatch:

https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2025/08 ... rmajority/

if this trend holds, Rob Sand is going to win easily

Also this:

First-time Candidate Breaks a Republican Supermajority In the Iowa Senate
By Sheila Brummer
August 27, 2025

Extract:

(Iowa Public Radio)
“The supermajority is no longer, and I think that is obviously great for the Democrats. But more importantly, it is great for the constituents across the state of Iowa who deserve to have their voices heard, who no longer will have to have unpopular policies shoved down their throat with no hope of a debate or conversation around a bill,” said Drey, who works for an advertising company in Sioux City and is the founder of the advocacy group Moms for Iowa.

Drey said her top priority is to address the affordability crisis in Iowa.

"I think that we have to focus on what constituents are saying," Drey said. “How do we make housing more affordable? How do we make our child care more affordable? How do we make our health care more affordable, and I am ready to hit the ground running on those issues.”
...
Drey credited a grassroots campaign with volunteers from all over the state, and beyond, for helping her beat Republican Christopher Prosch, the owner of a media consulting firm.

“We have an opportunity to capitalize on this moment right now and into 2026. We showed that when you do the work and you talk to voters, that change is possible,” Drey said. "This was truly a team effort across the board. And I think people right now are desperate to do something that feels hopeful and feels like it can change the conversation, and that's what we did tonight."

Read more here: https://www.iowapublicradio.org/politi ... -election

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