India: Crackdown on Opposition Reaches a Crisis Point Ahead of National Elections March 22, 2024
Introduction:
(Amnesty International) Responding to the arrest of Arvind Kejriwal, Delhi state Chief Minister and opposition leader from the Aam Aadmi Party, along with freezing of bank accounts of another leading opposition party, Indian National Congress, Aakar Patel, chair of board at Amnesty International India, said:
“The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led Indian government’s crackdown on peaceful dissent and opposition has now reached a crisis point. The authorities have repeatedly exploited and weaponized various financial and terrorism laws to systematically crackdown on human rights defenders, activists, critics, non-profit organisations, journalists, students, academics and political opposition. The arrest of Arvind Kejriwal and the freezing of Indian National Congress’ bank accounts a few weeks before India holds its general elections show the authorities’ blatant failure to uphold the country’s international human rights obligations.
“What we are witnessing is a brutal crackdown on human rights including through the misuse of central investigative and financial agencies, attacks on peaceful protests, arbitrary arrests, use and export of invasive spyware for unlawful surveillance, systematic discrimination against religious minorities to feed into their majoritarian Hindutva politics and targeted suspension of opposition leaders from the Parliament who dare to hold the authorities to account.
“The growing crackdown clearly shows the authorities’ blatant disregard for human rights and rule of law. Authorities must respect, protect, promote and fulfil the human rights of everyone in the country including human rights defenders, activists, and opposition candidates before, during and after the general elections which are due to begin in April 2024. Authorities must also ensure access to justice and effective remedies for victims of human rights violations.
“State institutions must be allowed to function independently and effectively. Authorities must stop weaponizing the criminal justice system to intimidate and harass human rights defenders, activists and opposition candidates.”
India is holding a mammoth election with nearly a billion voters
By Geeta Pandey
The general election is the largest democratic exercise ever - almost one in eight people in the world can vote.
On 19 April, Indians will begin choosing a new parliament for the next five years, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks a third consecutive term. Opinion polls put his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies ahead. They are up against the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (India), which groups more than two dozen opposition parties including Congress, which was dominant for decades until the BJP took office in 2014.
Scroll down to find out all about the staggering scale of the exercise, the powerful personalities and issues on which the election will be fought.
How to Clean Up New Delhi’s Smoggy Air April 26, 2024
Introduction:
(Eurekalert) An international study led by atmospheric researchers at PSI shows for the first time what portions of particulates in the air over northern India are especially harmful to health.
Nowhere else do people breathe air as dirty as in India. According to the World Health Organisation, as many as 1.3 million deaths per year on the subcontinent can be attributed to polluted air. With its National Clean Air Programme, the Indian government wants to enact countermeasures. To do this, decision-makers need to know what sources the particulates come from, how they are distributed regionally, and how harmful certain compounds are to human health. This important information has now been provided for the first time by a study led by members of the Laboratory for Atmospheric Chemistry at PSI, with partners from India, China, Germany, Denmark, France, Spain, and Switzerland. The researchers have not only determined the amounts and origins of particulates in the air, but also their oxidative potential – an important factor for the harmful effect a chemical compound can have on living cells and thus on health. The study has now been published in the journal Nature Communications.
The focus of the study was on the Indian capital New Delhi, and not for the first time. Of all the cities on earth, it is considered the metropolis with the highest concentration of particulates in the air. Over the past four years, the researchers had already gained groundbreaking insights into the air pollution there. In a study from 2023, they demonstrated for the first time that chemical processes run differently in the skies over New Delhi than in other major cities.
Incomplete combustion is the primary cause
This time the team was interested in the sources of particulate emissions and the pathogenic effect of certain substances. According to the study, incomplete combustion plays an especially big role in polluting the air. Even non-experts recognise this: «If it smokes, the combustion is incomplete,» explains Imad El Haddad. He and André Prévôt from the Laboratory for Atmospheric Chemistry at PSI led the latest study. Most notably, the burning of biomass or waste is a major contributor to the formation of particulates and smog. This includes the burning of cow dung for heating and cooking, which also produces high levels of particulate matter. Added to this is the outdated vehicle fleet, especially the small vehicles called tuktuks, widely used in India, and motor scooters with inefficient two-stroke engines
The Once-welcomed Rohingya Refugees Now Face Hostility from the Hosts in Bangladesh May 29 2024
Introduction:
(Eurekalert) The number of refugees has sharply increased in recent decades, reaching 37.8 million in 2022. Amidst this surge, host communities—locals residing in areas where refugee camps are situated—are also positively and negatively impacted by the refugee influxes. The negative impacts include competition over scarce resources and in the unskilled labor market. While the international media and aid organizations put the spotlight on assisting refugees, the challenges faced by host communities are frequently sidelined.
In 2017, over 700,000 Rohingyas—a Muslim minority group from Rakhine State in Myanmar—fled to their neighboring country, Bangladesh, amidst a large-scale Rohingya clearance operation by the Burmese government. The hosts—the Bangladeshi Muslim population—were initially sympathetic toward the refugees because of their shared religion and language. Yet, their sympathy faded over time due to the extended stay of refugees and other negative consequences, including high fertility rates. Overlooking such adverse impacts on host communities can stir social unrest among them.
Against this backdrop, a research team led by Associate Professor Yuki Higuchi from the Faculty of Economics at Sophia University, Japan, examined how the 2017 Rohingya refugee influx impacted the public sentiments of host communities in Bangladesh. Their paper, published in Economic Development and Cultural Change on March 16, 2024, was co-authored by Mohammad Mosharraf Hossain from the Institute of Forestry and Environmental Sciences at the University of Chittagong and Mohammad Sujauddin from the Department of Environmental Science and Management at North South University.
Dr. Higuchi asserts, “The 2017 Rohingya refugee crisis persists even after five years. International attention and support are fading, worsening the situation. We emphasize that this crisis is still ongoing, and Rohingya refugees, along with the host communities who are also poor, are in a difficult situation. The world must act now.”
Voting in India's election ends, Modi's alliance projected to win majority
All voting in India's general election ended on Saturday. Local media released the results of exit polls showing the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's alliance seems on track to win a parliamentary majority required to keep him in office.
The final round of the seven-phase election, which is the world's largest with nearly 1 billion eligible voters, finished on Saturday. The voting took place in 543 electoral districts.
Modi heads the governing Bharatiya Janata Party, or BJP, and seeks a third term as prime minister. The party won a majority of seats in the previous 2019 general election, and the ruling coalition gained nearly two-thirds of the seats.
Media exit polls predict that such momentum will continue this time as well.
India Hands Modi a Surprise Setback as His Majority Looks Set to Shrink in World's Largest Election by Mithil Aggarwal and Janis Mackey Frayer
June 4, 2024
Introduction:
(NBC) NEW DELHI — Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was on course Tuesday for a rare third term at the helm of the world’s most populous country, but faced a surprising setback after a divisive decade in power.
His Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and allied parties appeared to have secured almost 300 of 543 seats in Parliament, according to early results, giving them a simple majority. But the BJP may fall short of a majority on its own, with the opposition performing better than expected after exit polls had suggested Modi’s alliance would win by a landslide.
That result would weaken Modi, whose dominance over India has steadily grown since he gained power in 2014. He enjoys wide support both at home and among the large Indian diaspora in the U.S. and elsewhere, who see him as responsible for India’s rocketing economy and rising confidence on the world stage. According to Morning Consult, Modi is by far the world’s most popular leader, with an approval rating of 74%.
Critics say Modi has also eroded human rights in India, the world’s largest democracy, and stoked religious tensions, particularly against India’s Muslim minority, with Modi and other BJP candidates accused of hate speech and other inflammatory rhetoric during the campaign.
India is also struggling to provide enough jobs for its 1.4 billion people, despite being the world’s fastest-growing major economy.
Lok Sabha Polls 2024: Big Winners and Key Takeaways June 4, 2024
Introduction:
(The New Indian Express) The outcome of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections has upended the expectations set by most exit polls, which had projected a resounding victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), surpassing their performance in 2019.
After securing around 290 seats, the mandate still remains in favour of a potential third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. However, the landscape is far from a foregone conclusion, as the coalition of opposition parties, collectively known as the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), has curtailed the BJP's dominance, particularly in pivotal bellwether states. Their concerted efforts have helped disrupt the saffron party's ambitious target of achieving the '400 paar' milestone for the NDA.
Here are some key takeaways from the results:
* Larger the state, larger the stakes
In Uttar Pradesh, the political landscape took a dramatic turn as the INDIA bloc, spearheaded by allies the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Congress, defied expectations by emerging as the dominant force in the state.
Despite widespread anticipation of a sweeping victory for the BJP and its allies, the electoral reality has painted a different picture. With Uttar Pradesh contributing the largest contingent of Members of Parliament (80) to the parliament, the unexpected surge of the INDIA bloc underscored a significant shift in voter sentiment.
Modi’s Narrow Win Suggests Indian Voters Saw Through Religious Rhetoric, Opting Instead to Curtail His Political Power Updated June 5, 2024
Introduction:
(The Conversation) The Conversation U.S. spoke with Sumit Ganguly, distinguished professor of political science and the Tagore chair in Indian Cultures and Civilizations at Indiana University, to understand more about the election results and what they mean for Indian democracy.
The BJP had talked about an overwhelming victory, but it seems it will not get a majority. How do you explain these results?
Part of the answer lies in the Modi government’s failure to realize that while economic benefits had been substantial, their distribution has been uneven. India has seen a growth in inequality and persistent unemployment both in rural and urban areas. Unemployment of those aged 20 to 24 years is at a high of 44.49%. And that is the overall national number; that data does not tell us that it may be much worse in certain regions.
The other explanation is that Modi’s exploitation of historic Hindu-Muslim tensions seems to have run its natural course. You can beat the religious drum – and Modi did with rhetoric including calling Muslims “infiltrators” – but then the day-to-day issues of jobs, housing and other such necessities take over, and these are the things people care about the most.
BJP made a miscalculation, in my analysis. It failed to realize that in a country where only 11.3% of children get adequate nutrition, Hindu pride cannot be eaten – ultimately, it’s the price of potatoes and other essentials that matter.
Indian Election was Awash in Deepfakes – but AI Was a Net Positive for Democracy by Vandinika Shukla and Bruce Schneier
June 10, 2024
Introduction:
(The Conversation) As India concluded the world’s largest election on June 5, 2024, with over 640 million votes counted, observers could assess how the various parties and factions used artificial intelligence technologies – and what lessons that holds for the rest of the world.
The campaigns made extensive use of AI, including deepfake impersonations of candidates, celebrities and dead politicians. By some estimates, millions of Indian voters viewed deepfakes.
But, despite fears of widespread disinformation, for the most part the campaigns, candidates and activists used AI constructively in the election. They used AI for typical political activities, including mudslinging, but primarily to better connect with voters.
Deepfakes without the deception
Political parties in India spent an estimated US$50 million on authorized AI-generated content for targeted communication with their constituencies this election cycle. And it was largely successful.
Indian political strategists have long recognized the influence of personality and emotion on their constituents, and they started using AI to bolster their messaging. Young and upcoming AI companies like The Indian Deepfaker, which started out serving the entertainment industry, quickly responded to this growing demand for AI-generated campaign material.
Introduction (see second of four articles linked):
(Janata Weekly) It’s difficult to explain to outsiders what June 4 means to so many Indians. While it is certainly likely that Narendra Modi will form the new government, it will be a coalition. This includes partners like Chandrababu Naidu who quit the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance in 2004 (ironically for their failure to curb Modi after the 2002 Gujarat pogrom) and again in 2018 (after disagreements with Modi), and Nitish Kumar, who has developed political flip flopping into an art form. It will be Modi’s first brush with helming a meaningful coalition, without the absolute majority that has hitherto backed his ‘my way or the highway’ style of alliance management.
A parliament with no one party with a clear majority also means a return to the days of more parliamentary influence on governance, where cross coalition consensus has to be built for new legislation. Again, this is something the BJP, which has treated parliament as a rubber stamp for the last decade, will have to get used to.
And yet, beyond any of these gains, what drives sentiment today is that the idea of the inevitability of Modi has been shattered.
“Aayega to Modi hi” (“Modi is inevitable”) is a chant often used by his supporters as a cry of power. To tell his opponents that their resistance to his ideas is futile, and even dangerous. That no matter what they do or say, a Modi government is inevitable. And it is this inevitability of Modi that has directed political funding, executive actions, and to an extent, judicial decisions, in India for the last decade. It has also driven political analysis and the public discourse, where bigots have felt confident to drop their masks and openly dehumanise minorities, secure in the knowledge that Modi would forever have their backs. That has changed.
Prime Minister Clement Attlee was criticised for allowing partition to be rushed at terrible cost in human life.
Foreign Secretary Robin Cook caused a storm by offering to mediate between India and Pakistan over Kashmir.
And the party led by Jeremy Corbyn angered even more here when it passed a motion calling for international intervention in the disputed region.
So it must have been with some trepidation that David Lammy arrived in a warm and damp New Delhi on Wednesday morning, a newly-minted foreign secretary stepping away for the first time from the more familiar turf of Europe and the United States.
Bangladesh anti-government protests kill more than 50
4 August 2024, 03:27 BST
At least 59 people have been killed in Bangladesh amid worsening clashes between police and anti-government protesters.
The unrest comes as student leaders have declared a campaign of civil disobedience to demand that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina step down.
Thirteen police officers were killed when thousands of people attacked a police station in the district of Sirajganj, police said.
The student protest started with a demand to abolish quotas in civil service jobs last month, but have now turned into a wider anti-government movement.
Both police and supporters of the governing party were seen shooting at anti-government protesters with live ammunition. Police also used tear gas and rubber bullets.
Bangladesh Army Chief and President Seek Calm After Prime Minister Flees by Arun Devnath
August 5, 2024
Introduction:
(Bloomberg) -- Bangladesh’s powerful army chief and president are working to install an interim government and calm deadly protests that led Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to flee the country.
President Mohammed Shahabuddin said in a televised address that he ordered the release of jailed protesters, as well as ex-prime minister and opposition leader Khaleda Zia. He also said businesses should re-open on Tuesday after authorities lift a curfew at 6 a.m. and that elections will be held “as soon as possible.”
The head of the army, Waker-Uz-Zaman, said earlier that a new government will formed in consultation with Shahabuddin before a new vote.
“An interim government will be formed,” the army chief said, adding it could happen as soon as overnight. “Justice will be served for each death. Keep faith in the army.”
Hasina, 76, left Bangladesh for India shortly before the army’s announcement and was seeking to head to London, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified discussing private information. India will allow her safe passage on her way to the UK, the people said.
