New predictions for the timeline

[GTrang]

One of the predictions for 2028 (namely, "The final Avatar movie is released") needs to be moved to 2031. The release dates for Avatar 3, Avatar 4, and Avatar 5 have been postponed to 2025 (originally 2024), 2029 (originally 2026), and 2031 (originally 2028) respectively.

https://deadline.com/2023/06/disney-mar ... 235415782/

[wjfox]

So I'm currently working on the humans to Mars prediction for 2039-40. It's rather challenging to research and write. Here are the best references I've gathered so far:

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politi ... 48548.html (really useful timeline/visualisation)

One of NASA's most recent plans, with mission architecture, and mentioning 2039: https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/202 ... -01-06.pdf

NASA Administrator Bill Nelson, speaking earlier this year: "2040."

GPT-4's prediction: late 2030s/early 2040s.

https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/humans-to-mars/ (scroll down to "Getting There and Back" for a nice animation, labelled as 2039)

Another mention of 2039-40: https://www.space.com/nasa-mars-by-2040-audacious-goal

This appears to rule out the earlier predicted date of 2033, which I'll remove from the timeline. It suggests that 2039 is possible: https://nasawatch.com/trumpspace/nasa-f ... -20372039/

From 26:50, this video shows a useful timeline/schedule of Artemis missions, progressing from Moon to Mars.

I might list the new prediction as 2039-2045, so it gives some flexibility and takes into account the uncertainty.

[wjfox]

2,400,000,000 AD – The Large Magellanic Cloud has merged with the Milky Way galaxy

https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/ ... ogin=false

Excellent visualisation: https://fire.northwestern.edu/visualizations/

[Time_Traveller]

2,400,000,000 AD – The Large Magellanic Cloud has merged with the Milky Way galaxy

https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/ ... ogin=false

Excellent visualisation: https://fire.northwestern.edu/visualizations/

Even though I would be long dead, I would love to see what the outcome would look like if I could see it.

[wjfox]

Is this worth including on our timeline? I mean, this won't be just any old game. It's likely to sell 100 million+ copies.

2025 – GTA 6 is released

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-67588537

[raklian]

2,400,000,000 AD – The Large Magellanic Cloud has merged with the Milky Way galaxy

https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/ ... ogin=false

Excellent visualisation: https://fire.northwestern.edu/visualizations/

Even though I would be long dead, I would love to see what the outcome would look like if I could see it.

You could, if you're lucky to reach LEV and somehow become immortal.

[Time_Traveller]

2,400,000,000 AD – The Large Magellanic Cloud has merged with the Milky Way galaxy

https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/ ... ogin=false

Excellent visualisation: https://fire.northwestern.edu/visualizations/

Even though I would be long dead, I would love to see what the outcome would look like if I could see it.

You could, if you're lucky to reach LEV and somehow become immortal.

True Raklian.

[firestar464]

2,400,000,000 AD – The Large Magellanic Cloud has merged with the Milky Way galaxy

https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/ ... ogin=false

Excellent visualisation: https://fire.northwestern.edu/visualizations/

Even though I would be long dead, I would love to see what the outcome would look like if I could see it.

You could, if you're lucky to reach LEV and somehow become immortal.

The question is really "whether the substrate people will survive this." I'm inclined to say "yes"

However will we live long enough to become the substrate people? IDK

[firestar464]

Europe's Ariane 6 Rocket Finally Has a Launch Date
The ESA and Arianespace want to blast Ariane 6 into space on June 15, 2024.
By Ryan Whitwam December 5, 2023

https://www.extremetech.com/science/eur ... aunch-date

Europe's Ariane 5 rocket was a workhorse of a launch vehicle for years, but the ESA retired it this past year. The agency had hoped to have the Ariane 6 ready to go by now, but pandemic-era delays have slowed the project. Finally, the ESA has announced the first Ariane 6 orbital launch. It's now on the books for June 15, 2024.

The European Space Agency (ESA) began work on the Ariance 6 in the mid-2010s, hoping to lower launch costs while allowing for more varied payloads. The initial plan was to launch Ariane 6 in 2020, but the project was delayed and ground to a halt during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. ESA director Josef Aschbacher says the agency was "in crisis" as it pushed the rocket back. While it waits for Ariane 6, the ESA has turned to SpaceX.

I guess we need to move the Ariane 6 prediction from this year to the next year

[Bird]

Is this worth including on our timeline? I mean, this won't be just any old game. It's likely to sell 100 million+ copies.

2025 – GTA 6 is released

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-67588537

I'd say so.

It will likely show off the latest & greatest for a variety of gaming tech. I'd say it's large enough to be considered a significant cultural event (though I acknowledge I'm biased as someone VERY excited for the game)

[firestar464]

https://web.archive.org/web/20231204140 ... 230609.htm

Xuntian's launch (https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcent ... tm#xuntian) needs to be moved to 2025.

[wjfox]

https://web.archive.org/web/20231204140 ... 230609.htm

Xuntian's launch (https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcent ... tm#xuntian) needs to be moved to 2025.

Yes. I noticed that got delayed. I'm planning a big update of the 2023-25 pages in the next week or two.

[wjfox]

2024 – Global warming temporarily exceeds 1.5°C

2024 could be even hotter than 2023.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate- ... p28-dubai/

[Vakanai]

2,400,000,000 AD – The Large Magellanic Cloud has merged with the Milky Way galaxy

https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/ ... ogin=false

Excellent visualisation: https://fire.northwestern.edu/visualizations/

Even though I would be long dead, I would love to see what the outcome would look like if I could see it.

If all goes well on the transhumanism and anti-aging front I'll be well alive to see it.

[wjfox]

[FuturismFan]

250,000,000 AD - The Pleiades star cluster has dispersed

https://www.space.com/4374-spot-star-cluster.html
https://www.skyatnightmagazine.com/astr ... s/pleiades

[wjfox]

2024 – Mickey Mouse becomes public domain

https://apnews.com/article/mickey-mouse ... cf87302b6f

[wjfox]

2024 – The first AI-generated news anchors on U.S. television

https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/ai-ge ... -next-year

[wjfox]

2024-25 – The UK's first spaceport for vertical rocket launches

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland- ... d-67741864



Credit: Image source, SaxaVord UK

[wjfox]

2024 – China's emissions are declining

https://theprogressplaybook.com/2023/11 ... vestments/

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-ch ... an-energy/

(quite hard to believe this one. I'll try to corroborate it with some additional references)



2024 – U.S. solar and wind surpass coal-fired electricity generation

https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press547.php

(this one is definitely more believable)