New predictions for the timeline

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firestar464
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by firestar464 »

2075- Human meat consumption finally starts to decline

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2023 ... k-oecd-fao
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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firestar464 wrote: Mon Aug 07, 2023 2:44 pm 2075- Human meat consumption finally starts to decline

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2023 ... k-oecd-fao
That's a great one – thanks.
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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2028 – Launch of the NEO Surveyor

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NEO_Surveyor


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FuturismFan
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by FuturismFan »

Vakanai wrote: Thu Jul 27, 2023 11:55 am
wjfox wrote: Tue Jul 25, 2023 12:57 pm
Vakanai wrote: Tue Jul 25, 2023 11:55 am
Again, I feel like waste heat isn't a problem unless we produce far more waste heat than we do today, and I'd need to see some good reasoning on why it would greatly surpass today's peaks.
https://www.futuretimeline.net/forum/vi ... f=3&t=2976
wjfox wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 3:45 pmSo imagine a world that is, for example, covered in large amounts of computronium and/or other infrastructure needed to sustain a God-like superintelligence, along with billions or maybe even trillions of humans, robots, etc. That's going to generate a stupendous amount of heat. Literally enough to boil the oceans.
Yeah, no. We don't need to cover that much of the earth in computronium to support a God-like super intelligence - seems like we're getting a glimpse of what's needed for that now, and it's far less than that. In a decade or so we'll have AGI probably with not much more waste heat than we're producing now, and humanity is on track to start going towards smaller population size so not trillions (longevity/immortality but stop reduction but if we reach that goal we'll probably start discussing population control when no one dies), and I doubt we'll have that many robots if we're spending more time in virtual realities, mostly just to maintain us.
I agree with you that AGIs won’t require extreme amounts of waste heat. Human brains only use about 12 watts of power. Even comparing DDR4 (1.2 V) to DDR5 (1.1 V), it’s clear that technology is becoming more efficient. You can run an LLM on a home computer.

Population size is projected to eventually decrease as well.

However, if we want Star Trek-style spaceships, which are pretty much the pipe dream of every futurist, waste heat will be a massive problem.
firestar464
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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Vakanai
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by Vakanai »

FuturismFan wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:22 pm
Vakanai wrote: Thu Jul 27, 2023 11:55 am
wjfox wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 3:45 pmSo imagine a world that is, for example, covered in large amounts of computronium and/or other infrastructure needed to sustain a God-like superintelligence, along with billions or maybe even trillions of humans, robots, etc. That's going to generate a stupendous amount of heat. Literally enough to boil the oceans.
Yeah, no. We don't need to cover that much of the earth in computronium to support a God-like super intelligence - seems like we're getting a glimpse of what's needed for that now, and it's far less than that. In a decade or so we'll have AGI probably with not much more waste heat than we're producing now, and humanity is on track to start going towards smaller population size so not trillions (longevity/immortality but stop reduction but if we reach that goal we'll probably start discussing population control when no one dies), and I doubt we'll have that many robots if we're spending more time in virtual realities, mostly just to maintain us.
I agree with you that AGIs won’t require extreme amounts of waste heat. Human brains only use about 12 watts of power. Even comparing DDR4 (1.2 V) to DDR5 (1.1 V), it’s clear that technology is becoming more efficient. You can run an LLM on a home computer.

Population size is projected to eventually decrease as well.

However, if we want Star Trek-style spaceships, which are pretty much the pipe dream of every futurist, waste heat will be a massive problem.
Do we want Star Trek style ships though? Sure it's cool in our heads because we love big ships, but it's not the most practical means of colonizing other planets, and even less practical for simple exploration and research frankly. I haven't heard a good argument yet on why we'd need to create that much waste heat other than impractical and overkill ideas like converting everything into computers or building bigger than needed spaceships. We will definitely produce more heat than now, but I don't see a reason why we'd need to produce the amount people are talking about.

As for the ST ships, I imagine by the time we could make ships of that size and scale we'd have already inundated much of our solar system with smaller ships meaning that asteroid/meteor/comet mining would already be under way, we'd have at least small colonies on the moon and other heavenly bodies with less gravity, and space stations orbiting other worlds, meaning most if not all the materials, construction, and general work to create such ships would happen off planet anyway - I'm not going to worry about waste heat in the Kuiper belt or Oort cloud.

Plus those ships are that size because of the crew - humans that are no different at all from us today. That's not a likely picture of the future though, with many being trans or post human. Much of the life systems/support and space needed to comfortably fit hundreds/thousands of modern purely biological humans won't be needed - most won't need life systems, won't need private bedrooms since they won't sleep, many will live in VR or be in an off/hibernation state unless needed until something comes up or the ship reaches their destination, etc. The only reason why we would build ships of that size is either the arrogant need to prove we can, or if that size is needed to house some future technology like warp drives and worm hole generators if such are even possible and require machinery of that size.
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by FuturismFan »

Vakanai wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 7:14 pm
FuturismFan wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:22 pm
Vakanai wrote: Thu Jul 27, 2023 11:55 am



Yeah, no. We don't need to cover that much of the earth in computronium to support a God-like super intelligence - seems like we're getting a glimpse of what's needed for that now, and it's far less than that. In a decade or so we'll have AGI probably with not much more waste heat than we're producing now, and humanity is on track to start going towards smaller population size so not trillions (longevity/immortality but stop reduction but if we reach that goal we'll probably start discussing population control when no one dies), and I doubt we'll have that many robots if we're spending more time in virtual realities, mostly just to maintain us.
I agree with you that AGIs won’t require extreme amounts of waste heat. Human brains only use about 12 watts of power. Even comparing DDR4 (1.2 V) to DDR5 (1.1 V), it’s clear that technology is becoming more efficient. You can run an LLM on a home computer.

Population size is projected to eventually decrease as well.

However, if we want Star Trek-style spaceships, which are pretty much the pipe dream of every futurist, waste heat will be a massive problem.
Do we want Star Trek style ships though? Sure it's cool in our heads because we love big ships, but it's not the most practical means of colonizing other planets, and even less practical for simple exploration and research frankly. I haven't heard a good argument yet on why we'd need to create that much waste heat other than impractical and overkill ideas like converting everything into computers or building bigger than needed spaceships. We will definitely produce more heat than now, but I don't see a reason why we'd need to produce the amount people are talking about.

As for the ST ships, I imagine by the time we could make ships of that size and scale we'd have already inundated much of our solar system with smaller ships meaning that asteroid/meteor/comet mining would already be under way, we'd have at least small colonies on the moon and other heavenly bodies with less gravity, and space stations orbiting other worlds, meaning most if not all the materials, construction, and general work to create such ships would happen off planet anyway - I'm not going to worry about waste heat in the Kuiper belt or Oort cloud.

Plus those ships are that size because of the crew - humans that are no different at all from us today. That's not a likely picture of the future though, with many being trans or post human. Much of the life systems/support and space needed to comfortably fit hundreds/thousands of modern purely biological humans won't be needed - most won't need life systems, won't need private bedrooms since they won't sleep, many will live in VR or be in an off/hibernation state unless needed until something comes up or the ship reaches their destination, etc. The only reason why we would build ships of that size is either the arrogant need to prove we can, or if that size is needed to house some future technology like warp drives and worm hole generators if such are even possible and require machinery of that size.
Not so much size - but rather lots of ships that can easily and repeatedly carry enormous amounts of cargo from ground-to-orbit in seconds (ability to achieve escape velocity with lots of cargo) from anywhere on Earth. This would produce a lot of waste heat.

Adding hypotheticals like warp drives and energy shields makes the power requirements even more extreme, but these probably wouldn’t be used in-atmosphere.

Of course, you can say that this will never happen, which is why I said it’s a pipe dream.

I don’t believe that waste heat will boil the oceans. I think that if it becomes a problem, we’ll figure out a solution.
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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SSN-AUKUS

The SSN-AUKUS, also known as the SSN-A , is a planned class of nuclear-powered fleet submarine (SSN) intended to enter service with the United Kingdom's Royal Navy in the late 2030s and Royal Australian Navy in the 2040s. The class will replace the UK's Astute class and Australia's Collins class submarines.

[...]

The Royal Australian Navy will acquire eight SSN-AUKUS class boats that will be built at Osborne Naval Shipyard in South Australia.[27][28] The building of the first boat is to begin by the end of the 2030s with the boat delivered in the early 2040s.[27][29] Five boats are expected to be built by 2055 and the three final boats built by 2063 with a boat built every three years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SSN-AUKUS
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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FuturismFan wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 12:19 pmNot so much size - but rather lots of ships that can easily and repeatedly carry enormous amounts of cargo from ground-to-orbit in seconds (ability to achieve escape velocity with lots of cargo) from anywhere on Earth. This would produce a lot of waste heat.

Adding hypotheticals like warp drives and energy shields makes the power requirements even more extreme, but these probably wouldn’t be used in-atmosphere.

Of course, you can say that this will never happen, which is why I said it’s a pipe dream.

I don’t believe that waste heat will boil the oceans. I think that if it becomes a problem, we’ll figure out a solution.
I don't know if we want/need that either? Never mind the waste heat discussion any more, that seems inefficient for a truly advanced civilization when it comes to exploration. Instead of a lot of cargo, we will probably use asteroid/meteor/comet mining drones to get needed materials and use advanced 3D printers and perhaps even nano-or-pico bots to assemble things out of this material. There of course will need to be cargo, but likely less than we currently imagine.
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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Predictions for the next 50 years of astronomy

Published: August 14, 2023

What will astronomy look like in 2073? A panel of astronomers and planetary scientists give their predictions.

https://www.astronomy.com/science/the-n ... astronomy/
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by GTrang »

2115 - The 100 Years film is released

The 100 Years film is scheduled to be released on November 18, 2115.

https://gizmodo.com/john-malkovich-and- ... 1743390289
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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2035 – The Next Generation Very Large Array (ngVLA) is fully operational

It will expand the current VLA from 27 to 263 antennas.

https://www.universetoday.com/153323/th ... h-america/

https://public.nrao.edu/news/ngvla-stro ... al-survey/
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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Millions of Brits to lose landline phone access as deadline set for switch off
Traditional landline phones will stop working soon—forcing millions of Brits to switch to modern broadband technology if they want to stay in touch with friends and family. It's all because the UK's ageing landline telephone network is set to be switched off in 2025, as the country moves from 19th-century copper wire to modern broadband.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/tech/millions- ... e-30842898

Another one to add to 2025, if important enough.
"We all have our time machines, don't we. Those that take us back are memories...And those that carry us forward, are dreams."

-H.G Wells.
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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Copper is superior to broadband and sharing infrastructure with the internet for home phones. It works when the power is out and it doesn't get overburdened and stop working during a disaster when there isn't enough data throughput on broadband networks. I'm sad to see it go, I wish we'd keep it around.
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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'Absurd' rule means government files on Prince Andrew will not be made public until 2065
Prince Andrew would have to live to the age of 105 before government files on his activities can be released under an "absurd" rule – and one royal biographer has called on the King to do away with it altogether.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/a ... s-30855621

Here is something else to add to 2065, unless its removed before hand.
"We all have our time machines, don't we. Those that take us back are memories...And those that carry us forward, are dreams."

-H.G Wells.
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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erowind wrote: Tue Sep 05, 2023 9:43 am Copper is superior to broadband and sharing infrastructure with the internet for home phones. It works when the power is out and it doesn't get overburdened and stop working during a disaster when there isn't enough data throughput on broadband networks. I'm sad to see it go, I wish we'd keep it around.
Agreed. Just because a technology is more advanced doesn't mean that it is superior. I am also sad to hear this news.
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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firestar464 wrote: Mon Aug 07, 2023 2:44 pm 2075- Human meat consumption finally starts to decline

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2023 ... k-oecd-fao
Added that one. :)
firestar464
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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2080s: Southern Ontario to see 60 days of temperatures over 30 degrees

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ ... -1.6964662
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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2028-2030: Intercity rail in Florida has been greatly expanded

This is in reference to the Brightline company completing its planned rail network by this time, which will span a total of 7 stops from downtown Miami to downtown Tampa, and see peak speeds ranging from 130 to 200 km/h.
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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2031 – Gene-edited crop photosynthesis is commercially available

Potential for 20% improvement in yield.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66798680
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