New predictions for the timeline

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wjfox
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by wjfox »

2032-2033 – Heavy cargo deployments to the lunar surface

https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa- ... o-landers/


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firestar464
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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I think the US Semiquincentennial (2026) is not going to be a diverse celebration anymore but rather just a glazing session for Trump
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by Vakanai »

firestar464 wrote: Mon Nov 25, 2024 4:22 pm I think the US Semiquincentennial (2026) is not going to be a diverse celebration anymore but rather just a glazing session for Trump
You didn't need to say Semiquincentennial (2026). It's just as accurate now to predict "I think the US is not going to be a diverse celebration anymore but rather just a glazing session for Trump," for the next four years or so.
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by firestar464 »

(My comment was targeted towards the prediction on the timeline, but you're definitely right)
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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2025 – Pierre Poilievre wins the Canadian federal election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Cana ... l_election
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by firestar464 »

Kinda concerned we're gonna see an Anschluss type situation
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by ReactiveWaters »

According to the IFS, an ongoing decline in birth rates in the UK means that there will be 700,000 fewer children in school by 2030, than in 2024.
Everyone starting school at Reception age in school year 2029/30 is already born, and those currently in Year 6 at primary school will take their GCSEs in June 2030.
As a personal anecdote, the local primary school in the village that I live (in Somerset, UK) has closed at the start of September 2024 (as have several surrounding villages in recent years) due to a lack of new children.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cje30vq7yypo
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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2038-2041 – Bitcoin is now consistently above $1 million

viewtopic.php?p=61667#p61667

(Tadasuke's estimate)
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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I was about to delete the New Glenn prediction for 2024, but seems it might launch in the next few days (!). Stay tuned.
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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wjfox wrote: Sun Dec 08, 2024 11:53 am 2038-2041 – Bitcoin is now consistently above $1 million

viewtopic.php?p=61667#p61667

(Tadasuke's estimate)
I have strong doubts due to the high likelihood Bitcoin will be replaced by something else. AI will play a larger role in innovations, thus pushing the exponential curve of technological progression further.
To know is essentially the same as not knowing. The only thing that occurs is the rearrangement of atoms in your brain.
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by erowind »

wjfox wrote: Sun Dec 08, 2024 11:53 am 2038-2041 – Bitcoin is now consistently above $1 million

viewtopic.php?p=61667#p61667

(Tadasuke's estimate)
Bitcoin won’t make it that far. This market cycle it’s expanding into institutional capital funds, next cycle there is no larger pool of capital to expand into unless it replaces the dollar which isn’t happening. It also has security model problems that will become a problem around the 2030s causing chain failures due to adversarial miners exploiting the chain to remain profitable as the emissions reward drops under the cost to produce bitcoin.
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by wjfox »

This was the only recent update I could find for Kivalina (click through to view text).

So I've tweaked the prediction slightly and changed it from 2025 to a date range of 2025-2030.


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Re: New predictions for the timeline

Post by firestar464 »

2026- 90% of the internet is AI-generated

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmar ... 0deception.
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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2039–2043 – Completion of the Yarlung Tsangpo megadam in China

Gigantic project, will have three times the power capacity of Three Gorges.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crmn127kmr4o

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science ... e=rss_feed

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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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2045 - 2050: Human activity has added 1,000 Gigatons of Carbon to the atmosphere

In 2022, the total amount of carbon added to the Earth's system by human activity since the year 1870 reached 703 Gigatons. At its current increase of around 11 Gt per year, one excess Teraton relative to 1870 will be in the atmosphere by the 2050s.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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2035–2040 – The Guowang megaconstellation is fully operational

HUGE new satellite constellation being planned by China. The schedule isn't known for sure, but I've asked ChatGPT about this, and it's given me some useful references to work with.
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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2032–2043 – The first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean

They mention the possibility of 2027, but that prediction would be an outlier.
"... Most models predicted that the first ice-free day could happen within nine to 20 years after 2023."
https://www.colorado.edu/today/2024/12/ ... -timelines

Nature study: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-54508-3
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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2055 – Gene editing can prevent common human diseases

"Although it is not currently possible to target hundreds or thousands of polymorphisms simultaneously using gene editing, the rapid development of gene editing technology (for example, CRISPR–Cas9 gene editing was first reported in 2012), including advances in multiplex gene editing, leads us to believe that we might be one human generation (about 30 years) away from it becoming technically possible to perform gene editing on tens or hundreds of variants that are causal for common diseases."

Ref 1: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08300-4

Ref 2: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-00015-4

See also this discussion, which delves into more detail:

viewtopic.php?p=62849#p62849
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Re: New predictions for the timeline

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2033- Deaths exceed births in the US

https://thehill.com/homenews/5085268-de ... -2033-cbo/
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