Future Timeline

Jesus, are there really people that think that way? Guys, "life-improving thing might not be easily accessible" means "we should make life-improving thing accessible," not "thing is bad" Tragically, a huge fraction of people think that way. The topic relates to "p...

One argument against mind uploading and brain transplantation into new bodies is that only the rich will be able to afford them. However, when those procedures become available, I predict average-income people with severe deformities, paralysis, and chronic pain will comprise most of the clientele, ...

Once androids are numerous and running around in public spaces, they'll even steal jobs from the people who make a living doing pranks, street interviews, and behaving strangely in public. I see millions of these people on YouTube.

weatheriscool wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2026 9:01 pm

funkervogt wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2026 2:27 pm Jet packs would be terrifying.

But imagine short trips a couple of miles to the store or to the park? A flying car is nice but sometimes you just want to hope over everything for a quick trip.

I'll pass.

Jet packs would be terrifying.

Chollet believes OpenAI spent “tens of millions” on compute in 2025 to train models specifically for ARC-AGI-2, using publicly available ARC puzzle samples to generate additional training data. “What this amounts to is preemptive brute forcing … by trying to guess in advance every possible task,” h...

When it comes to fashion, I'm severely autistic. So yesterday, I went to the thrift store, took photos of myself wearing random shirts and pants, and uploaded them to ChatGPT to ask whether they looked good. The results were excellent. Not only did it give me honest advice and explain its answers, b...

"Fundamentally our business and I think the business of every other model provider is going to look like selling tokens," Altman said, referring to the units AI systems use to process and price input and output data. "We see a future where intelligence is a utility like electricity o...

2026 update


The challenge has been completed and no more updates are needed.

Once free to do so, machines will invent their own programming languages that are more task-optimized than the ones humans have created. Due to our cognitive limitations and biases of thinking, humans created programming languages that are user friendly rather than efficient. For example, Python is ...

I can easily see us having "the worst of both worlds" for the next 20 years with respect to AI and its impact on the world. -"AI" gets much better than it is now, but doesn't achieve true "intelligence," so it keeps making horrible mistakes 1% of the time. That keeps it...

"Within two decades, we will have a detailed understanding of how all the regions of the human brain work."
--Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near (2005)

If you don't like Trump, you should support him ordering an invasion of Greenland. The backlash will be furious and immediate that it will cripple his ability to govern and he will probably be removed from office in months.

Let me kick the dead horse. This from 2019. Retired Japanese general predicts China will invade Taiwan by 2025, Okinawa by 2045 Read more at: https://www.stripes.com/theaters/asia_pacific/retired-japanese-general-predicts-china-will-invade-taiwan-by-2025-okinawa-by-2045-1.569228 CAMP FOSTER, Okinawa...

funkervogt wrote: ↑Wed Dec 31, 2025 6:25 pm Maduro either leaves office in Venezuela or massively caves to several Trump political demands.

One of my predictions already came true!

Let me put the final nail in the coffin of this thread. A four-star Air Force general sent a memo on Friday to the officers he commands that predicts the U.S. will be at war with China in two years and tells them to get ready to prep by firing "a clip" at a target, and "aim for the he...

Here are my 2025 predictions: Trump's first year of his second term will fall short of the high hopes and fears that conservatives and liberals expect, respectively. The number of illegal immigrants inside the U.S. will probably drop by 10% at most, and mostly thanks to people voluntarily leaving f...

Maduro either leaves office in Venezuela or massively caves to several Trump political demands. Solar power will continue its massive global expansion. AGI will not be invented. Democrats will win control of the House of Representatives. There will be no Mideast conflicts on the scale of what we had...

The LLM becoming AGI in the future was always a bad assumption. So if anyone expected this, then i can understand why they think there is an AI bubble. I already predicted that in the 2024 prediction that this would not occur, and if someone were to fail and go bankrupt in the next 5 years, my bet ...

Yes, but like the Dotcom Bubble, the bursting of this bubble will not destroy the sector in question: it will bring down many weaker and overleveraged firms and trigger a standard economic recession, but once the dust settles, strong growth will resume. I'm looking forward to buying tech stocks duri...