17th May 2016

More than a billion people exposed to coastal flooding by 2060

To mark the start of Christian Aid Week, a new report launched by the charity highlights the cities most at risk from future coastal flooding.

Christian Aid's report – Act Now Or Pay Later: Protecting a billion people in climate-threatened coastal cities – shows that more than a billion people will be exposed to coastal flooding by 2060, through a combination of sea level rise, storm surges and extreme weather. Published yesterday, the report reveals that people living in three of the biggest carbon polluting countries will be most at risk: China, India and the USA.

According to projections for the year 2070 – based on the latest IPCC reports – India's Kolkata and Mumbai top the list of cities whose populations are most exposed to coastal flooding, with 14 million and 11.4 million respectively. The first seven cities on the list are from Asia, followed by Miami in 8th.

Miami is also forecast to suffer the brunt of the financial losses from coastal flooding by 2070, topping a separate list with an eye-watering $3.5 trillion of threatened assets. The USA is likely to pay a hefty price for its carbon footprint – among the world's highest when measured on a per capita basis – as New York also comes in third place with $2.1 trillion. China's Guangzhou splits the two American cities with exposed assets of $3.4 trillion.

In total, of the top 20 most financially vulnerable cities, half are from either of these two countries: four from the USA, six from China.

Report author Dr Alison Doig, Christian Aid's Principal Climate Change Advisor, said the figures should be a wakeup call ahead of next week's World Humanitarian Summit in Istanbul (23rd-24th May).

"We are facing a head on collision between the growth of coastal urban areas and climate change which makes coastal flooding more likely," she said. "This perfect storm is likely to bring about a heavy human and financial toll, unless we do something about it.

"Cruelly, it will be the poor that will suffer the most. Although the financial cost to cities in rich countries will be crippling, wealthier people will at least have options to relocate and receive insurance protection.

"Evidence shows that from New Orleans to Dhaka, it is the poorest who are most vulnerable, because they have the worst infrastructure and no social or financial safety nets to help them recover."

Dr Doig added: "There is a chance this horrifying vision of the future can be avoided. It is striking that the cities facing the most severe impacts are in countries with high contributions of carbon emissions. The first thing we can do is speed up the global transition away from dirty fossil fuels to the clean, renewably energy of the future. We can also do more to prepare for such occurrences. For every $1 spent on reducing the risk of disasters, we save around $7 later. Such investment is a no brainer."

Guangzhou, the Chinese city most at risk.

Ahead of next week's World Humanitarian Summit, UN General Secretary Ban Ki-moon has called for the percentage of global aid spent on disaster risk reduction to be doubled to 1%. This would bring the figure to $1 billion. Christian Aid is calling for a rise to 5%.

Dr Doig added: "This billion dollars would go some way to help protect people in these cities now, alleviating the threat for the billion vulnerable people at risk from coastal flooding by 2060."

In another ranking, the report lists which nations will have the most people living in exposed coastlines by 2060. China tops the list, followed by India and Bangladesh. The UK comes in 22nd.

"In the UK, we've experienced in recent years the winter flooding that has left large parts of the country deluged," Dr Doig continued. "But these figures show that it's not just more rainfall we need to be wary of. The people living along our coastlines will become vulnerable to rising tides unless we do something about climate change."

The report goes on to examine how men and women are affected differently by climate-related disasters, with women on the whole suffering more acutely. It also shows examples of where Christian Aid is offering practical assistance to help the most vulnerable deal with the climate impacts they are already facing.

Bangladesh is among the most vulnerable countries to climate change and is ranked 142nd out of 187 nations on the UN's Human Development Index. However, donations to Christian Aid are helping lift people away from the floodwaters. One example is Feroza Begum and her family, whose home was flooded multiple times and at one point was underwater for 18 days. Thanks to help from Christian Aid partner organisation GUK, their home and surrounding land was raised onto a sturdy plinth.

Feroza was also given livestock and climate-resistant seeds to diversify her income and become more resilient. "Because of this plinth, I feel better," she told Christian Aid. "Now I have been able to make a small plantation and grow some vegetables. I am doing much better and feel much safer."

Christian Aid's report was published on the same day that NASA confirmed April 2016 was the hottest April on record, beating the previous record set in 2010 by 0.24°C, the largest margin ever. It is likely that 2016 will be the hottest year on record globally.

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